What could affect the price of ONDO?
Ondo carefully manages token releases alongside growing interest from institutions, potential ETF approval, and leadership in real-world asset (RWA) tokenization.
- Token Unlocks (Mixed Impact) – Most of ONDO’s supply (85%) is locked until 2028, but planned token releases could put some downward pressure on prices.
- ETF Momentum (Positive) – 21Shares has filed with the SEC for an ONDO spot ETF, which could bring more traditional financial investors if approved.
- RWA Adoption (Positive) – Partnerships with major players like BlackRock and JPMorgan strengthen Ondo’s position in tokenizing real-world assets.
Deep Dive
1. Tokenomics & Unlocks (Mixed Impact)
Overview:
More than 85% of ONDO’s total 10 billion tokens are locked until 2028. However, some tokens will start unlocking as soon as March 2024. For example, the CoinList community sale participants (over 18,000 people) hold about 199 million tokens (roughly 2% of total supply) that can be sold immediately. Institutional and team tokens will unlock gradually over 1 to 5 years (Ondo Foundation).
What this means:
These controlled unlocks help prevent a flood of tokens hitting the market all at once, which could hurt prices. Still, each unlock event may cause some selling pressure. Past unlocks, like the one in January 2025, saw ONDO’s price rise by 47% afterward, indicating strong demand can absorb new supply.
2. ETF & Institutional Adoption (Positive)
Overview:
On July 23, 2025, 21Shares filed with the SEC to launch a spot ETF for ONDO, which would track the CME’s ONDO reference rate. If approved, this ETF would allow regulated investors to gain exposure to Ondo’s $1.38 billion in tokenized U.S. Treasuries (21Shares filing).
What this means:
ETF approval could bring in significant investment from traditional finance institutions looking for yield. Ondo’s recent acquisition of Oasis Pro, an SEC-licensed platform, improves its regulatory standing and increases the chances of ETF approval.
3. RWA Leadership vs. Competition (Positive)
Overview:
Ondo leads the market in tokenized U.S. Treasuries (OUSG, USDY) with $1.38 billion in total value locked (TVL) and supports over 10 blockchain networks. Its partnerships with the Global Markets Alliance (including Solana and BitGo) and the Ondo Chain’s institutional-grade infrastructure give it an edge over competitors like Maple Finance.
What this means:
Ondo’s early lead in the $25 billion+ real-world asset tokenization market positions ONDO as a key player in this growing sector. Large investors buying 3 million tokens in July 2025 show confidence in Ondo’s competitive advantage.
Conclusion
ONDO’s price will depend on how well it balances token unlocks with growing demand from ETFs and real-world asset adoption. Breaking above $1.13 could push the price toward $1.40–$1.70, while falling below $0.979 might lead to a drop back to $0.80. Keep an eye on SEC decisions about the ETF and the token unlock events in September 2025 for clues on price direction.
Will institutions see ONDO as the “BlackRock of crypto,” or will they choose cheaper alternatives in the real-world asset space?
What are people saying about ONDO?
The Ondo (ONDO) community is torn between optimism for a breakout and frustration from recent price struggles. Real-world asset (RWA) developments are promising, but technical challenges remain. Here’s what’s happening now:
- Bull flag patterns suggest $2 price targets as ONDO stays near key moving averages.
- 21Shares’ ETF application fuels hopes for big institutional investment, despite regulatory uncertainties.
- Support at $0.80 is critical after a 12% drop this week — holding this level is crucial.
Deep Dive
1. Bullish Flag Points to $2 Target
@VipRoseTr highlights a bullish flag pattern forming on ONDO’s chart:
"Flag compression + breakout loading = explosive move brewing🔥 🎯 $1.14 🎯 $1.50 🎯 $2.00"
– @VipRoseTr (8.7K followers · 42K impressions · 2025-09-02 19:58 UTC)
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What this means: A bull flag is a technical pattern that often signals a pause before the price moves higher. The $1.14 target aligns with resistance levels seen in September, while reaching $2 would require strong momentum to break previous all-time highs.
2. Bounce Off 50-Day Moving Average Sparks Volume Surge
@BlockNests reports:
"ONDO up 5.35% to $0.93 [...] forming bullish flag, analysts eye breakout targets of $1.14–$2.00"
– @BlockNests (23.1K followers · 89K impressions · 2025-09-03 11:33 UTC)
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What this means: ONDO’s price bounced off its 50-day moving average at $0.89, accompanied by a 43% increase in trading volume. This suggests renewed interest from larger investors. The $1.14 price target also matches where many options contracts are concentrated, indicating a key level to watch.
3. Testing $0.80 Support After 12% Weekly Drop
The CoinMarketCap Community notes:
"ONDO price has dropped 12% this week [...] critical $0.80 support level"
– @CoinMarketCap (June 3, 2025 analysis)
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What this means: The price falling below a key technical pattern from July signals weakness. If ONDO closes below $0.80, it could trigger automated selling, pushing the price down toward $0.65.
Conclusion
Opinions on ONDO are mixed. On one hand, the growing adoption of real-world assets—highlighted by 21Shares’ ETF filing and $1.38 billion in tokenized U.S. Treasuries—offers strong long-term potential. On the other hand, technical indicators show pressure near important support levels. The $0.80 to $0.85 range is a critical zone: holding here could spark a new rally, while falling below may challenge the idea of a broader “Altcoin Season.” The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s decision on the 21Shares ETF, expected in the fourth quarter of 2025, will likely be a key factor influencing institutional investment flows.
What is the latest news about ONDO?
Ondo is making big moves during this altcoin season by attracting large investors and expanding into real-world assets. Here’s what’s new:
- Whale Buying Spree (September 13, 2025) – Large holders purchased 23.7 million ONDO tokens, helping the price jump 21% in one week.
- Altcoin Season Leader (September 12, 2025) – Ondo’s $1.4 billion in total value locked (TVL) makes it a top player combining real-world assets (RWA) with decentralized finance (DeFi), especially as institutions shift their investments.
- WEEX Exchange Listings Improve Access (September 12, 2025) – Tokenized versions of GameStop and the S&P 500 ETFs launched, making it easier to trade traditional assets on crypto platforms.
In-Depth Look
1. Whale Buying Spree (September 13, 2025)
What happened: Data from the blockchain shows that “whales” — wallets holding between 1 million and 10 million ONDO tokens — bought about 23.7 million ONDO (worth roughly $24 million) between September 5 and 13. This buying coincided with a 21% increase in ONDO’s price. This fits with a larger trend where investors are excited about altcoins tied to real-world assets.
Why it matters: If these big investors keep buying, ONDO’s price could rise to between $1.13 and $1.35. But if the price falls below $1.00, it might drop back to around $0.91. Whale buying shows confidence in Ondo’s plan to tokenize real-world assets, but the price could still fall if investors decide to take profits.
(Bitget)
2. Altcoin Season Leader (September 12, 2025)
What happened: Research from CoinEx named Ondo a top altcoin pick for 2025, highlighting its $1.4 billion TVL in tokenized government bonds and stocks. Ondo’s focus on regulatory compliance and partnerships, like with BlackRock’s BUIDL fund, position it well to attract institutional investors interested in real-world assets.
Why it matters: Ondo is benefiting from money moving into regulated, income-generating assets. However, other projects like Ethena and Hyperliquid are competitors and could challenge Ondo if it doesn’t keep growing.
(CoinEx)
3. WEEX Exchange Listings Improve Access (September 12, 2025)
What happened: WEEX Exchange added tokenized versions of GameStop (GMEON) and the S&P 500 ETF (SPYON), allowing 24/7 trading using USDT pairs. This follows earlier listings of tokenized government bonds and helps Ondo grow in the Asia-Pacific region.
Why it matters: These new trading options increase liquidity and make it easier for everyday investors to access these assets. However, regulatory challenges remain, especially around international compliance. Success here could prove Ondo’s model as a bridge between traditional finance (TradFi) and decentralized finance (DeFi).
(WEEX)
Conclusion
Ondo’s combination of strong interest from large investors, growing institutional demand for real-world assets, and expanding exchange listings highlights its important role in this “compliant altseason.” While price swings around $1.00 to $1.10 are expected, Ondo’s focus on tokenization trends suggests it has staying power. The big question is whether clearer regulations for real-world assets will secure Ondo’s early lead or if challenges in scaling will slow its momentum.
What is expected in the development of ONDO?
Ondo’s roadmap is focused on growing the tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs) and increasing adoption by institutions.
- Global Markets Expansion (Q4 2025) – Launching tokenized stocks and ETFs on major blockchain networks.
- Ondo Chain Upgrades (2026) – Improving compliance features and enabling better cross-chain connections.
- 21Shares ETF Decision (Pending) – SEC approval could bring more institutional investors.
Deep Dive
1. Global Markets Expansion (Q4 2025)
Overview
Ondo plans to expand its Ondo Global Markets platform, which turns traditional assets like U.S. stocks and ETFs into digital tokens. Recent partnerships with Zodia Custody, Bitget, and LayerZero aim to make trading these tokenized assets easier across different blockchains. The platform currently supports Ethereum, Solana, and XRP Ledger, with plans to add Sei Network and Cosmos EVM to provide 24/7 liquidity (Ondo Finance).
What this means
This is positive for ONDO because it increases the usefulness of its governance token, attracting traditional finance (TradFi) users and increasing trading activity. However, there are still regulatory challenges when dealing with cross-border tokenized assets.
2. Ondo Chain Upgrades (2026)
Overview
Ondo Chain is a Layer 1 blockchain designed to meet regulatory requirements for institutional real-world assets. Upcoming upgrades include staking options backed by RWAs and omnichain bridging, which allows assets to move smoothly between permissioned (private) and public blockchains. The network relies on authorized validators, such as regulated banks and custodians, to maintain compliance (Bitso Blog).
What this means
These upgrades strengthen ONDO’s position in connecting traditional finance with decentralized finance (DeFi), potentially increasing demand for staking and governance participation. However, delays in onboarding validators or regulatory issues could slow down adoption.
3. 21Shares ETF Decision (Pending)
Overview
In July 2025, 21Shares filed for approval of a spot ONDO ETF, structured as a trust that tracks Ondo’s treasury-backed assets. If approved, ONDO would become the first DeFi-native token to have a regulated ETF, managed by Coinbase (Coinspeaker).
What this means
Approval would validate Ondo’s real-world asset model and likely attract more institutional investors. However, the SEC has been cautious about crypto ETFs, so approval could be delayed into 2026.
Conclusion
Ondo’s roadmap aims to bridge traditional finance and blockchain by building scalable infrastructure for real-world assets and offering products that comply with regulations. Near-term events like the Global Markets launch and the ETF decision could boost confidence, but execution risks and regulatory changes remain important challenges.
Will Ondo Chain’s hybrid approach become the new standard for institutional asset tokenization?
What updates are there in the ONDO code base?
Ondo is focusing on building infrastructure that supports real-world assets.
- Expanding Real-World Asset (RWA) Infrastructure (July 2025) – There was a 40% increase in development activity related to tokenizing U.S. Treasuries and improving compliance tools.
- Upgrades to Compliance Features (July 2025) – Improvements were made to smart contract security and systems that help institutions follow regulations.
Deep Dive
1. Expanding Real-World Asset (RWA) Infrastructure (July 2025)
Overview: In July 2025, Ondo’s development work increased by 40%, focusing on building infrastructure for tokenized real-world assets like U.S. government bonds. The team worked on making these assets compatible across different blockchain networks and improving tools that ensure regulatory compliance.
This effort supports Ondo’s goal of connecting traditional finance (TradFi) with decentralized finance (DeFi), allowing institutions to securely create digital versions of real assets. Key improvements include flexible smart contracts for issuing assets and integrating oracles that provide up-to-date pricing information.
What this means: This is positive news for ONDO because it strengthens Ondo’s role as a leader in creating secure, institution-ready tokenized assets, which could attract more investment. (Source)
2. Upgrades to Compliance Features (July 2025)
Overview: The development team added new features to help Ondo meet regulatory requirements. These include modules for Know Your Customer (KYC) and Anti-Money Laundering (AML) checks, as well as permission controls for validator nodes.
These updates make it easier for traditional financial institutions to use Ondo’s platform. For example, role-based access controls allow regulated entities to manage asset creation while keeping the system decentralized for everyday users.
What this means: In the short term, these upgrades may increase development costs, so the impact on ONDO is neutral. However, in the long run, better compliance opens doors for partnerships with major banks and asset managers, which is a positive sign. (Source)
Conclusion
Ondo’s recent development work shows a clear focus on building a compliant, institution-friendly platform for tokenizing real-world assets. While the current updates emphasize regulatory compliance, the real success will depend on how well traditional financial players adopt Ondo’s hybrid system that balances permissioned and permissionless features. This approach raises interesting questions about how Ondo will maintain decentralization while meeting institutional needs.
Why did the price of ONDO fall?
Ondo (ONDO) dropped 5.66% in the last 24 hours, underperforming the overall crypto market, which fell 1.87%. This decline is mainly due to investors taking profits after recent gains, technical resistance levels being hit, and challenges specific to the tokenized asset sector.
- Profit-taking after rally – Large holders sold some ONDO following a 21% weekly price increase (Sept 13–20)
- Technical resistance – Price couldn’t stay above $1.05 (7-day moving average), triggering sell signals
- RWA sector cooling – Concerns about liquidity in tokenized assets resurfaced amid uncertainty about Federal Reserve interest rate moves
Deep Dive
1. Profit-Taking Pressure (Negative Impact)
Overview: Data from the blockchain shows wallets holding between 1 million and 10 million ONDO tokens sold about 5 million tokens since September 18. This happened after the price jumped 21% from $0.93 to $1.13 earlier in the week (Bitget). This pattern fits with past behavior where big holders often sell after big price increases.
What this means: Short-term traders likely sold near the $1.13 resistance level, which corresponds to a common technical level called the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Trading volume over 24 hours dropped by 21.68% to $189 million, indicating less buying interest to balance out the selling pressure.
2. Technical Breakdown (Mixed Impact)
Overview: ONDO’s price fell below its 7-day simple moving average (SMA) of $1.05 and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.997. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 52.97, showing weakening momentum. The MACD indicator also suggests the recent upward trend is losing strength.
What this means: Many automated trading systems see a close below the 7-day SMA as a signal to sell. The next important support level is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $0.965—if the price falls below this, the decline could speed up. However, the 30-day SMA at $0.972 might help stabilize the price nearby.
3. Macro and RWA Sector Challenges (Negative Impact)
Overview: Tokenized asset projects like Ondo have come under scrutiny after some of their products (SPYON and GMEON tokens) traded at a 14% premium compared to the actual stocks they represent. This raises concerns about liquidity. At the same time, the market has lowered expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in 2025 (from 65% to 58%), which reduces demand for yield-focused tokenized assets.
What this means: Ondo’s main offerings, which include tokenized U.S. Treasuries and stocks, become less appealing when investors expect interest rates to stay higher for longer. Additionally, ongoing regulatory reviews, such as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s look into foreign exchange access (KuCoin), add uncertainty.
Conclusion
The recent drop in ONDO’s price reflects a shift away from tokenized real-world assets amid broader economic changes, combined with natural profit-taking after a strong rally. While the longer-term trend over 30 days remains positive (+8.5%), traders should watch the $0.96 support level closely and pay attention to how the Federal Reserve’s upcoming decisions affect Treasury yields.
Key watch: Will ONDO stay above the 30-day moving average ($0.972) during the U.S. market open, or will concerns about a large number of tokens unlocking (6.5 billion by 2028) weigh on investor sentiment?