Why did the price of ONDO fall?

Ondo (ONDO) dropped 2.05% in the last 24 hours, slightly underperforming the overall crypto market, which fell 1.84%. Here’s why:

1. Regulatory Concerns – Ondo asked the SEC to delay Nasdaq’s plan for tokenized securities, citing worries about transparency and how soon institutions might adopt these assets.
2. Technical Weakness – ONDO’s price is below important moving averages (7-day SMA at $0.7661), and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 34.64 suggests downward momentum.
3. Altcoin Market Pressure – Crypto market sentiment is fearful (CMC Fear & Greed Index at 25), and altcoins are seeing less interest, with the Altcoin Season Index down 7.14%.

In-Depth Analysis

1. Regulatory Uncertainty (Negative Impact)

What’s happening?
Ondo Finance publicly opposed the SEC’s plan to allow Nasdaq to trade tokenized securities. They argue that the current settlement system run by the Depository Trust Company (DTC) isn’t transparent enough. The SEC is expected to make a decision by early November 2025. This delay could slow down how quickly big institutions start using tokenized assets, which are important for Ondo’s business.

Why it matters:

• Investors might see this as a setback for Ondo’s growth, especially for products like OUSG, which are tokenized U.S. Treasury securities.
• Similar regulatory news caused Ondo’s stock to drop 6.4% in October 2025, showing how sensitive the market is to these issues.

What to watch:
Keep an eye on the SEC’s timeline and any updates about the DTC’s settlement process.

2. Technical Analysis (Negative Impact)

What’s happening?
ONDO’s price fell below its 7-day simple moving average (SMA) of $0.7661 and is now testing the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.71314. The MACD indicator shows bearish momentum, and the RSI at 34.64 is low but not yet oversold, meaning there could be more room to fall.

Why it matters:

• Traders often see prices below key moving averages as a signal to sell, which can push prices down further.
• If ONDO closes below $0.713, it might trigger more selling toward the next support level at $0.62309 (61.8% Fibonacci level).

What to watch:
Trading volume is up 7.7% in the last 24 hours to $226 million, indicating strong selling pressure.

3. Overall Crypto Market Sentiment (Mixed Impact)

What’s happening?
The entire crypto market dropped 1.84%, with the Fear & Greed Index showing “Fear” at 25. Bitcoin’s dominance increased to 58.84%, meaning investors are favoring Bitcoin over altcoins like ONDO.

Why it matters:

• ONDO’s 2.05% drop fits the trend of altcoins underperforming, as the median altcoin fell about 1.9%.
• Open interest in derivatives dropped 6.51%, suggesting traders are less willing to take risks right now.

Summary

Ondo’s recent price decline is driven by regulatory challenges around tokenized securities, technical signals pointing to further weakness, and a cautious crypto market environment. While Ondo’s expansion into Latin America through Bitpanda (starting October 16) could boost long-term growth, investors are currently focused on the uncertainty around Nasdaq’s SEC proposal.

What to watch next: The SEC’s decision on Nasdaq’s tokenized securities plan. A rejection could push ONDO’s price down further, while approval might spark renewed buying interest.

What could affect the price of ONDO?

ONDO’s price is balancing between upcoming token unlocks and growing interest in real-world assets (RWAs).

1. Token Unlocks (Bearish Risk) – More than 85% of ONDO’s tokens are still locked, and as they gradually become available, there’s a risk of price drops due to increased supply.
2. Regulatory Moves (Mixed Impact) – The SEC’s decisions on Nasdaq’s plan for tokenized securities could either challenge or support ONDO’s position in the RWA market.
3. ETF & Partnerships (Bullish Catalyst) – A possible ONDO ETF and Bitpanda’s expansion into Latin America could boost demand from big investors.

Deep Dive

1. Token Unlocks & Supply Dynamics (Bearish Impact)

Overview:
ONDO has a total supply of 10 billion tokens, but only about 14.3% (1.43 billion) are currently available for trading. Private investors hold 12.9%, and core team members hold 33%, both with lock-up periods of over 12 months. The largest portion, 52.1%, is reserved for ecosystem growth and will unlock gradually over five years. The next big unlock period is expected in early 2026, which could increase the number of tokens on the market.

What this means:
Past trends show that token unlocks can lead to price drops (for example, ONDO’s price fell about 34% in the last 30 days). However, because the tokens unlock slowly rather than all at once, the impact might be less severe. Keep an eye on the circulating supply to spot signs of dilution.

2. Regulatory Battles & RWA Competition (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
Ondo has asked the SEC to delay Nasdaq’s tokenized securities plan (The Defiant), citing concerns that important settlement details are not transparent and could favor established players. At the same time, ONDO’s real-world asset products, like tokenized U.S. Treasuries, face competition from platforms like Robinhood, eToro, and Kraken.

What this means:
If regulators slow down Nasdaq’s plan, ONDO could maintain its strong $1.38 billion position in the RWA space. But if the SEC approves Nasdaq’s proposal, liquidity could split across platforms, potentially reducing ONDO’s market share.

3. ETF Hype & Global Adoption (Bullish Impact)

Overview:
21Shares has proposed an ONDO ETF (CoinMarketCap), and Bitpanda is expanding into Latin America, aiming to attract both institutional and retail investors. ONDO’s partnerships with major financial firms like JPMorgan and BlackRock add credibility.

What this means:
If the ETF is approved, ONDO could see a rally similar to Bitcoin’s ETF-driven surge in 2024. Bitpanda’s large user base (over 30 million) could also increase ONDO’s usage. Technical indicators show potential upside: the RSI is at 29.9 (indicating the token is oversold), and a bullish flag pattern suggests a price target between $1.14 and $2.00 (BlockNests).

Conclusion

ONDO’s price will depend on how well it manages the balance between token unlocks and growing adoption of real-world assets. While token unlocks pose short-term risks, ETF developments and regulatory decisions could provide positive momentum. The key question remains: Will the SEC’s decision on Nasdaq’s tokenization plan support ONDO’s leadership or create new challenges? Watch ONDO’s Total Value Locked (TVL), currently at $1.27 billion, and stay updated on ETF news for clues on the token’s direction.

What are people saying about ONDO?

Ondo (ONDO) traders are balancing between market fatigue and excitement around real-world assets (RWA), all while watching the $1 price level closely. Here’s what’s trending:

1. Bull flag patterns suggest a target of $1.50, indicating potential price buildup
2. 21Shares ETF filing sparks hopes for more institutional interest
3. $0.73 support level is critical for short-term market sentiment

Deep Dive

1. Bullish Flag Pattern Points to $1.50+

According to @VipRoseTr, ONDO is showing a bullish flag pattern on the two-day chart, with price targets at $1.14, $1.50, and even $2.00.
This pattern typically means the price is pausing or consolidating before continuing higher. If ONDO breaks above current resistance near $0.70, traders expect it could gain 2 to 3 times its value.

2. Institutional Interest Grows with RWA Focus

@blockchainlenny highlights that institutions are accumulating ONDO around $0.70. The project’s focus on bridging traditional finance (TradFi) and decentralized finance (DeFi), backed by major players like BlackRock and Coinbase, adds credibility.
Ondo Chain’s dedicated blockchain layer (L1) could further boost demand beyond just trading speculation.

3. $0.73 Support Level Is a Key Battleground

A recent CoinMarketCap community post notes that ONDO is consolidating between $0.73 and $0.75. Falling below $0.73 could lead to a drop toward $0.65, while breaking above $0.80 is needed to retest $1.
This creates a balanced risk-reward scenario, with the price’s direction likely influenced by broader market moves, especially Bitcoin.

Conclusion

Overall, the outlook for ONDO is cautiously optimistic. Technical traders see potential for a breakout from the current $0.73–$0.80 range, while supporters point to its unique position in real-world assets and the upcoming 21Shares ETF decision as positive factors.
However, a 34% drop over the past month shows bears still have some control. Keep a close eye on the $0.73 support level this week—if ONDO stays above it, accumulation may be confirmed; if it falls below, stop-loss orders could accelerate the decline. The 21Shares ETF decision expected in Q4 2025 remains a major event to watch.

What is the latest news about ONDO?

Ondo is facing regulatory challenges while growing its presence in Latin America. Here’s the latest update:

1. SEC Pushback (October 17, 2025) – Ondo asks the SEC to delay Nasdaq’s plan for tokenized securities due to transparency concerns.
2. Bitpanda Partnership (October 16, 2025) – Ondo teams up with Bitpanda to offer crypto services to wealthy clients in Brazil.
3. Price Volatility (October 15, 2025) – ONDO’s price dropped, with traders watching a key support level at $0.73 amid market uncertainty.

Deep Dive

1. SEC Pushback (October 17, 2025)

Overview:
Ondo Finance has publicly opposed Nasdaq’s plan to list tokenized stocks. They want the SEC to hold off on approving the plan until the Depository Trust Company (DTC) explains how settlements will work. Nasdaq’s proposal, submitted in September 2025, depends on blockchain technology that hasn’t been fully disclosed. Ondo worries this could give big institutions an unfair advantage.

What this means:
This is a neutral development for ONDO. Ondo is positioning itself as a champion for transparency in tokenized assets, but this could slow down adoption by big financial players, which is important for growth. The SEC’s decision, expected by late December 2025, could influence how traditional finance and crypto work together going forward. (The Defiant)

2. Bitpanda Partnership (October 16, 2025)

Overview:
Ondo has partnered with Bitpanda Technology Solutions to provide crypto services to wealthy clients in Brazil. This partnership uses Bitpanda’s technology for custody, trading, and liquidity management. It marks Ondo’s first expansion into Latin America.

What this means:
This is positive news for ONDO. Crypto adoption in Latin America is growing fast—up 77% year-over-year according to Chainalysis—and this partnership could open the door for institutional investors to use Ondo’s tokenized real-world assets (RWAs), like U.S. Treasuries (OUSG). Success here would support Ondo’s goal of expanding into global markets. (Yahoo Finance)

3. Price Volatility (October 15, 2025)

Overview:
ONDO’s price dropped 3.1% in one day to $0.704, underperforming the overall crypto market, which fell 1.93%. Analysts note weakening momentum, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 28.9 on 4-hour charts, but there is strong support around $0.73—a level that held during a sell-off in September.

What this means:
The short-term outlook is bearish. The Fear & Greed Index is at 28, indicating extreme fear among traders, and open interest in derivatives has dropped 11.8% this week, showing traders are cautious. If the price falls below $0.73, it could trigger further sell-offs down to $0.69. However, because the asset is oversold, a short-term bounce or relief rally is possible.

Conclusion

Ondo is balancing regulatory challenges with growth opportunities in Latin America, showing it’s both a decentralized finance (DeFi) innovator and a partner to traditional finance (TradFi). While the SEC dispute adds uncertainty, Ondo’s new partnerships strengthen its long-term value. The key question remains: Will Ondo’s push for transparency help it lead in tokenized real-world assets, or will it slow down the institutional investment needed for price recovery?

What is expected in the development of ONDO?

Ondo’s roadmap is centered on governance, expanding its ecosystem, and innovating with real-world assets.

1. Ecosystem Growth Unlocks (2026) – 3.96 billion ONDO tokens will become available gradually over 48 months after launch.
2. Ondo Chain Expansion (2025–2026) – Building a scalable, institutional-grade infrastructure for real-world assets (RWAs).
3. Global Markets Alliance Phase 2 (Q1 2026) – Adding new partners and creating standards for tokenized assets.
4. Ondo Points Second Wave (Q4 2025) – Expanding DeFi integrations and offering rewards to early users.

Deep Dive

1. Ecosystem Growth Unlocks (2026)

Overview:
More than half of ONDO’s total supply (52.1%, or 5.21 billion tokens) is dedicated to growing the ecosystem. Of these, 76% (3.96 billion tokens) are locked until 2026. These tokens will support developer grants, liquidity mining, and partnerships to grow Ondo’s real-world asset projects like Flux Finance and USDY.

What this means:
This unlock could increase selling pressure, but if used strategically, it may encourage wider adoption of Ondo’s protocols. Keep an eye on governance decisions about incentive programs aimed at DeFi platforms focused on real-world assets.

2. Ondo Chain Expansion (2025–2026)

Overview:
Ondo Chain, launched in February 2025, is a Layer 1 blockchain compatible with Ethereum’s technology, designed for institutional real-world assets. It aims to connect private traditional finance networks (like JPMorgan’s blockchain) with public decentralized finance (DeFi). Planned upgrades include faster settlement processes for tokenized stocks and better integration with Chainlink oracles (Ondo Finance).

What this means:
This development is positive for ONDO because institutional interest in tokenized assets could increase demand for ONDO’s governance and fee-sharing features. However, success depends on clear regulations for cross-chain real-world assets.

3. Global Markets Alliance Phase 2 (Q1 2026)

Overview:
The Global Markets Alliance, which already includes partners like BNB Chain, LayerZero, and Bitget, plans to grow to over 50 members by 2026. Phase 2 will focus on creating interoperable markets for tokenized government bonds and corporate debt.

What this means:
This is a promising sign for ONDO if it becomes the main liquidity hub for real-world assets. Still, competition from major players like BlackRock and Circle means execution risks remain.

4. Ondo Points Second Wave (Q4 2025)

Overview:
Following the success of the first Ondo Points program (which tracked over $50 million in USDY holdings), the second wave will partner with Solana and Mantle ecosystems. It will reward liquidity providers and DAO voters, with possible retroactive rewards for early users of OUSG and Flux.

What this means:
This is good news for ONDO holders, as points often lead to token airdrops, encouraging more engagement with the protocol. Watch for increased participation in Flux’s lending pools after launch.

Conclusion

Ondo’s 2025–2026 roadmap carefully balances token release schedules with ecosystem growth through Ondo Chain and the Global Markets Alliance. While the focus on real-world assets could boost demand, regulatory challenges and token unlocks require caution. The key question is whether Ondo’s institutional partnerships will outpace competitors in the race to tokenize global assets.

What updates are there in the ONDO code base?

Ondo is making big moves to build a strong infrastructure for real-world assets (RWA) and improve how different blockchains work together, especially for institutions.

1. Ondo Chain Mainnet Launch (August 2025) – A new blockchain that connects traditional finance (TradFi) and decentralized finance (DeFi) using Ethereum-compatible technology.
2. Cross-Chain DvP Settlement (August 2025) – First-ever atomic settlement of tokenized assets between J.P. Morgan’s private blockchain and a public blockchain.
3. Strangelove Acquisition (July 2025) – Ondo bought Strangelove Labs to speed up development of its RWA platform.

Deep Dive

1. Ondo Chain Mainnet Launch (August 2025)

Overview: Ondo Chain is a new blockchain built to connect permissioned traditional finance networks, like J.P. Morgan’s Kinexys, with public blockchains. It’s built using Cosmos SDK and Cosmos EVM, which means it supports Ethereum-compatible tools and offers fast, compliant ways to create tokenized real-world assets such as U.S. Treasury bonds.

Why it matters: This launch is a big positive for ONDO because it positions the chain as a go-to platform for regulated asset tokenization. It attracts developers familiar with Ethereum tools and bridges the gap between traditional finance and blockchain. (Source)

2. Cross-Chain DvP Settlement (August 2025)

Overview: Ondo Chain successfully completed the first atomic Delivery-versus-Payment (DvP) transaction on a test network. This means tokenized assets were exchanged securely and simultaneously between J.P. Morgan’s private blockchain and a public blockchain using Chainlink’s Runtime Environment.

Why it matters: This shows Ondo’s ability to enable smooth, secure transactions across different blockchains, which lowers the risk for institutions. This is a crucial step toward real-world adoption of blockchain technology in finance. (Source)

3. Strangelove Acquisition (July 2025)

Overview: Ondo acquired Strangelove Labs, a team known for building interoperability protocols and custom blockchain deployments. This acquisition strengthens Ondo’s engineering capabilities, helping it develop better cross-chain bridges and compliance tools.

Why it matters: This is a positive move for ONDO’s long-term growth, although it might slow down some product launches while the teams integrate. (Source)

Conclusion

Ondo is clearly focusing on building infrastructure that supports institutional real-world assets and improves how traditional finance connects with blockchain technology. The launch of Ondo Chain and the successful cross-chain settlements address key challenges in the industry. While we don’t have public data on developer activity, partnerships with major players like J.P. Morgan and Chainlink show growing trust and technical strength. The big question is: Can Ondo Chain keep up its momentum as more enterprises adopt Ethereum-compatible blockchains?