What could affect the price of ONDO?
ONDO is navigating a mix of factors that could both help and hurt its value as tokenization grows but supply risks remain.
- Token Unlock Schedule – 85% of ONDO tokens are still locked, which could lead to more tokens flooding the market and lowering prices.
- Growth in Tokenized Assets – New tokenized stocks and ETFs are increasing demand for ONDO.
- Regulatory Challenges – The SEC’s scrutiny of tokenized securities could slow down ONDO’s expansion.
Deep Dive
1. Vesting Cliff Risks (Potential Downside)
Overview:
Only about 14.3% of ONDO’s total 10 billion tokens are currently available for trading. Over 6.7 billion tokens remain locked (Ondo Foundation). Private investors hold 12.9% of the supply, locked for 12 months, then gradually released over four years. The majority, 85.1%, allocated to ecosystem and development, unlock monthly through 2028.
What this means:
In the near term, ONDO’s price could face pressure as large amounts of tokens become available. More than $179 million worth of tokens from CoinList holders have already unlocked, and $1.25 billion from ecosystem tokens will soon enter circulation. This increased supply likely contributed to ONDO’s 34% price drop this year, despite growth in the real-world asset (RWA) sector.
2. Expansion of Tokenized Assets (Potential Upside)
Overview:
Ondo launched over 100 tokenized U.S. stocks and ETFs on Blockchain.com in October 2025, with plans to add hundreds more by the end of the year. The total value locked (TVL) in tokenized U.S. Treasuries reached $1.38 billion, and the USDY stablecoin saw an 84% increase in adoption this year (Cointribune).
What this means:
Each $1 billion of new real-world asset inflows could boost ONDO’s price by $0.15 to $0.20, based on 2024 data linking TVL to price. Partnerships with traditional finance leaders like BlackRock, which uses OUSG as collateral, offer potential revenue-sharing opportunities.
3. Regulatory Crosscurrents (Mixed Outlook)
Overview:
Ondo successfully delayed Nasdaq’s competing tokenization plan through lobbying the SEC in October 2025. However, the SEC is still reviewing 21Shares’ ONDO ETF proposal, leaving institutional interest uncertain.
What this means:
If the ETF is approved, ONDO could see a price surge similar to Bitcoin’s 160% rally after its 2024 ETF approval. But if rejected, it could trigger selloffs. The SEC’s decision expected in November 2025 on tokenized stock regulations will be crucial in determining if Ondo’s products face operational limits.
Conclusion
ONDO’s price will depend on whether growing demand for tokenized assets can outpace the selling pressure from upcoming token unlocks. Technical indicators show ONDO is currently oversold (RSI at 40.89), but the 200-day moving average at $0.93 is a strong resistance level. Watch for the SEC’s ETF decision and weekly exchange flows to get a clearer sense of ONDO’s direction.
What are people saying about ONDO?
The ONDO community is buzzing with excitement, balancing hopeful price predictions and realistic market challenges. Here’s what’s trending right now:
- Traders are watching $0.73 as a critical support level
- Growing interest from institutions around real-world asset (RWA) tokenization
- Long-term price predictions above $10 face skepticism given ONDO’s current tokenomics
Deep Dive
1. Bullish Flag Pattern Signals Potential Price Rise
@VipRoseTr points out that ONDO is holding above its 50-day moving average, forming a bullish flag pattern. This technical setup often signals a strong upward move, with price targets at $1.14, $1.50, and even $2.00.
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What this means: Technical traders see this pattern as a sign that ONDO is gathering strength before a possible breakout. However, the $0.73 support level is crucial—if the price falls below this, the bullish outlook could weaken.
2. Institutional Adoption is Gaining Momentum
@OndoFinance recently announced a major milestone: Ondo Chain facilitated the first cross-chain delivery-versus-payment (DvP) settlement with JPMorgan, using Chainlink technology.
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What this means: This partnership signals growing institutional trust in ONDO, especially in the $16 trillion market for tokenizing real-world assets. While this is a positive sign, some details about how the token will be used in these processes are still being worked out.
3. Price Predictions Over $10 Face Realistic Challenges
According to Cryptomus Analysis, ONDO could reach $10 by 2037 if the real-world asset market grows as expected. However, hitting $100 would require a market cap of $315 billion—almost twice the size of Ethereum today.
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What this means: While the long-term growth story is promising, ONDO’s current price of around $0.73 (down 34% this year) and its large circulating supply (3.16 billion tokens) make extremely high price targets difficult to achieve.
Conclusion
Overall, the outlook for ONDO is cautiously optimistic. Technical traders are hopeful for a breakout, but the token’s economics and recent price drop highlight risks. The $0.70 to $0.75 price range is a key zone to watch—holding above it could confirm accumulation and support a rally, while falling below might invalidate bullish patterns. The big question remains: does Ondo Chain’s integration with traditional finance justify a higher valuation compared to purely decentralized finance (DeFi) projects? Time will tell.
What is the latest news about ONDO?
Ondo is carefully balancing regulatory challenges with strategic growth in tokenized assets, combining caution with expansion. Here are the latest updates:
- Global Markets Launch (October 20, 2025) – Ondo teams up with Blockchain.com to offer over 100 tokenized U.S. stocks and ETFs to users worldwide.
- Real-World Asset (RWA) Market Growth (October 20, 2025) – Tokenized U.S. Treasuries and gold push the RWA market to $34 billion, with Ondo’s OUSG and USDY tokens leading the way.
- Nasdaq Proposal Pushback (October 18, 2025) – Ondo urges the SEC to delay Nasdaq’s tokenized securities plan, citing concerns about transparency.
Deep Dive
1. Global Markets Launch (October 20, 2025)
Overview: Ondo Finance has launched tokenized versions of U.S. stocks and ETFs through Blockchain.com’s non-custodial wallet, focusing on users outside the U.S. This partnership allows people to buy fractional shares and trade assets like Apple and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF anytime, with plans to add hundreds more by the end of the year.
What this means: This move expands Ondo’s presence in traditional finance by combining it with decentralized finance (DeFi) benefits. With Blockchain.com’s 93 million users, liquidity and adoption of these tokenized assets could grow significantly. (Yahoo Finance)
2. RWA Market Growth (October 20, 2025)
Overview: The market for tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) grew by over 10% in one month, reaching $34.14 billion, according to rwa.xyz. Ondo’s OUSG token, representing tokenized U.S. Treasuries, holds $792 million, while its USDY stablecoin, which earns yield, supports $657 million. Gold-backed tokens like Tether Gold also saw strong growth, up 84% monthly.
What this means: Ondo is a key player connecting traditional investment returns with blockchain liquidity. However, competition is heating up, with Franklin Templeton’s BENJI token holding $849 million. (Cointribune)
3. Nasdaq Proposal Pushback (October 18, 2025)
Overview: Ondo criticized Nasdaq’s plan to tokenize securities because it relies on settlement processes by the Depository Trust Company (DTC) that aren’t fully transparent. Ondo argues this could give an unfair advantage to established players and limit competition.
What this means: While this stance may slow regulatory progress in the short term, Ondo is positioning itself as a champion for transparency and open standards, which could benefit it in the long run. (CoinDesk)
Conclusion
Ondo is pushing forward with tokenized asset adoption while carefully managing regulatory hurdles. Its partnership with Blockchain.com and leadership in the RWA market show strong growth, even as it takes a cautious approach to Nasdaq’s less transparent tokenization plans. The question remains: will increased regulatory scrutiny speed up or slow down Ondo’s efforts to transform capital markets?
What is expected in the development of ONDO?
Ondo’s roadmap is focused on growing tokenized assets, integrating with regulations, and expanding its ecosystem.
- Global Markets Launch (Late October 2025) – Introducing tokenized stocks and ETFs through partnerships with BNB Chain, LayerZero, and others.
- Oasis Pro Integration (November 2025) – Offering SEC-compliant trading of tokenized securities in the U.S.
- Ondo Stocks Expansion (November 2025) – Increasing access to tokenized stocks on platforms like Gate.io.
- Protocol Development Unlocks (Q1 2026) – Releasing 660 million ONDO tokens to key contributors.
Deep Dive
1. Global Markets Launch (Late October 2025)
Overview: Ondo’s Global Markets Alliance, which now includes over 25 partners such as BNB Chain and Bitget, plans to launch tokenized U.S. stocks and ETFs by late October 2025 (TheStreet). This effort aims to make trading traditional assets on blockchain easier and more standardized using stablecoins.
What this means: This is positive for ONDO because it positions the platform as a bridge between traditional finance (TradFi) and decentralized finance (DeFi), potentially increasing demand for ONDO tokens used in governance and fee sharing. However, there are risks related to regulatory challenges, especially for cross-border asset compliance.
2. Oasis Pro Integration (November 2025)
Overview: After acquiring SEC-licensed broker-dealer Oasis Pro, Ondo plans to integrate this platform by November 2025 to offer compliant trading of tokenized securities in the U.S. (TheStreet).
What this means: This move is cautiously optimistic. It strengthens Ondo’s regulatory position and could attract more conservative investors. However, success depends on how quickly institutions adopt the platform and how it competes with traditional finance platforms.
3. Ondo Stocks Expansion (November 2025)
Overview: Ondo Stocks, currently available on Gate.io, will expand to offer over 50 tokenized equities by November 2025. This will allow users to trade stocks like Tesla and Apple 24/7 using stablecoins (X post).
What this means: This is good news for retail investors, as it provides easier and round-the-clock access to traditional stocks. This could increase trading volume and the use of ONDO tokens for governance. However, liquidity spread across different blockchains could pose challenges.
4. Protocol Development Unlocks (Q1 2026)
Overview: In the first quarter of 2026, 660 million ONDO tokens (20% of the Protocol Development allocation) will be unlocked and distributed to core contributors, according to the Ondo Foundation’s vesting schedule.
What this means: This could put downward pressure on ONDO’s price in the short term due to increased token supply. Over the long term, the impact may be neutral if these tokens are staked or used to support the ecosystem. Investors should watch for potential sell-offs from early contributors.
Conclusion
Ondo’s roadmap highlights its focus on institutional-grade tokenization and regulatory compliance. While upcoming milestones could increase ONDO’s utility, investors should be mindful of potential price volatility from token unlocks. Additionally, the approval of the 21Shares ETF in late October 2025 could be a key event that drives more institutional investment.
What updates are there in the ONDO code base?
Ondo’s software development is making big strides toward building strong infrastructure for real-world assets (RWA) and improving cross-chain compatibility.
- RWA Infrastructure Expansion (July 2025) – Upgraded smart contracts for tokenized U.S. Treasuries and better compliance features.
- Strangelove Acquisition (July 2025) – Added engineering talent to speed up cross-chain RWA solutions.
- Repository Updates (September 2025) – Recent improvements to decentralized finance (DeFi) tools and cross-chain protocols.
Deep Dive
1. RWA Infrastructure Expansion (July 2025)
Overview: In July, Ondo’s GitHub activity increased by 40%, focusing on tokenized Treasuries and compliance systems.
Key improvements included security audits for contracts that generate yield and partnerships with institutions like JPMorgan to enable cross-chain settlements. The code now supports atomic swaps of tokenized U.S. Treasuries using Chainlink oracles, which helps reduce risks between trading parties.
What this means: This is positive news for ONDO because it strengthens its role as a compliant link between traditional finance (TradFi) and decentralized finance (DeFi), attracting more institutional investors. Users benefit from safer, thoroughly reviewed yield products.
(Cryptonewsland)
2. Strangelove Acquisition (July 2025)
Overview: Ondo acquired Strangelove Labs to expand its engineering team, focusing on making assets work smoothly across multiple blockchains.
Strangelove’s experience with cross-chain protocols like IBC will help Ondo grow into networks such as Solana and XRP Ledger. The code now includes modular software development kits (SDKs) that speed up launching RWA markets.
What this means: This is good for ONDO because it allows assets to be issued seamlessly across different blockchains, making them more accessible. Developers also get better tools to build compliant RWA applications faster.
(Source)
3. Repository Updates (September 2025)
Overview: Recent updates to repositories like ondo-v1 and usdy-noble improved DeFi tools and cross-chain stability.
These updates include optimizing gas fees for USDY (Ondo’s yield-bearing stablecoin) and enhancing validator node synchronization on Ondo Chain, its Layer-1 blockchain designed for institutions.
What this means: This is neutral for ONDO as it reflects routine maintenance, but it helps ensure smoother user experiences and prepares the platform for future growth.
Conclusion
Ondo’s software is evolving to meet the needs of institutional real-world asset markets. The July upgrades and acquisition set the stage for cross-chain leadership. The focus on security audits and compliance shows Ondo is ready for regulated markets. It will be interesting to see how Ondo’s infrastructure adapts to the upcoming MiCA regulations in 2026.
Why did the price of ONDO fall?
Ondo (ONDO) dropped 2.87% in the last 24 hours, underperforming the overall crypto market, which fell 2.35%. The main reasons include ongoing regulatory uncertainty about tokenized securities and negative technical signals.
- Regulatory concerns – Ondo’s criticism of the SEC raises questions about Nasdaq’s tokenization plans.
- Technical weakness – ONDO’s price fell below important support levels based on Fibonacci retracement and moving averages.
- Market caution – A general risk-off mood (Crypto Fear & Greed Index at 33) is putting pressure on altcoins like ONDO.
Deep Dive
1. Regulatory Uncertainty (Negative Impact)
Overview: Ondo Finance has asked the SEC to delay Nasdaq’s plan to tokenize securities, pointing out transparency issues in how settlements would work (CoinDesk). This could slow down the adoption of tokenized real-world assets (RWAs), which is a key part of ONDO’s growth story.
What this means: This shows there are regulatory challenges for traditional financial products moving onto blockchain platforms. Since Ondo’s tokenized Treasury products (OUSG) and Global Markets platform depend on regulatory approval, any delays could hurt investor confidence and slow revenue growth in the near term.
What to watch: The SEC’s decision on Nasdaq’s tokenization proposal expected by late October 2025.
2. Technical Breakdown (Negative Impact)
Overview: ONDO’s price fell below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.759 and is trading under key moving averages (7-day SMA at $0.742, 30-day SMA at $0.857). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 40.89, indicating weakening momentum but no clear oversold signal yet.
What this means: This price action suggests traders are selling ahead of a possible deeper drop. If ONDO stays below $0.72 (the 50% Fibonacci level), it could trigger stop-loss orders pushing the price down toward $0.595 (61.8% Fibonacci level).
3. Altcoin Weakness (Mixed Impact)
Overview: The Altcoin Season Index dropped to 26, down 25.7% over the past week, showing that investors are moving money from mid-cap altcoins like ONDO into Bitcoin. Spot trading volumes fell 36% weekly, reducing liquidity for altcoins.
What this means: ONDO’s 24-hour trading volume was $120 million, down 2.39%, while the overall market volume rose 20.68%. This shows limited buying interest despite ONDO’s recent partnership with Blockchain.com going live on October 20.
Conclusion
Ondo’s recent price decline reflects both specific regulatory challenges and broader weakness in altcoins, which outweigh the positive impact of new product launches. Key levels to watch: Can ONDO hold the $0.70 support level, or will regulatory issues push it down to retest June lows near $0.595? Keep an eye on SEC updates and Bitcoin dominance trends for clues on where ONDO might head next.