What could affect the price of ONDO?

ONDO balances growth opportunities from tokenized assets with risks from token unlocks.

1. Token Unlock Schedule – 85% of ONDO’s tokens will unlock gradually through 2029, which could lead to price drops due to increased supply.
2. Real-World Asset (RWA) Adoption – ONDO is expanding into tokenized stocks and ETFs through partnerships like the Global Markets Alliance.
3. Regulatory Changes – Compliance with the GENIUS Act enhances the use of ONDO’s stablecoin, USDY, but regulatory scrutiny remains a concern.

In-Depth Analysis

1. Token Unlock Schedule (Potential Negative Impact)

Overview:
More than 85% of ONDO’s total 10 billion token supply is still locked. Unlocking will begin around the public launch, expected before March 2024. Private sale holders, who own about 12.9% of the supply, have a 12-month waiting period before their tokens start unlocking gradually. The Ecosystem Growth allocation, which makes up 52.1% of the supply, includes 24% of tokens that are already unlocked, potentially adding around 1.25 billion tokens into circulation.

What this means:
Past token unlocks, such as the 1.9 billion tokens released in January 2025, have been linked to price drops between 15% and 30%. Future unlocks could put downward pressure on ONDO’s price if demand doesn’t keep up with the increasing supply. Currently, altcoins like ONDO hold a small share of the market (about 0.0621% according to CoinMarketCap), which could make it harder to absorb large token releases.

2. Real-World Asset (RWA) Adoption (Potential Positive Impact)

Overview:
ONDO’s tokenized U.S. Treasury product (OUSG) holds $788.3 million in total value locked (TVL), second only to BlackRock’s BUIDL at $2.85 billion. Partnerships with Blockchain.com, offering over 100 tokenized stocks, and PancakeSwap, which provides liquidity pools, position ONDO as a bridge between decentralized finance (DeFi) and traditional finance (TradFi).

What this means:
The market for tokenized real-world assets grew by 1.31% weekly to reach $8.41 billion in October 2025, with ONDO capturing 17.58% of that market. Increased institutional investment in yield-generating assets like USDY could boost demand for ONDO tokens. For example, ONDO’s price surged 61% in Q3 2025 following rumors about a Nasdaq ETF (Bitcoin.com).

3. Regulatory Changes (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
The GENIUS Act, passed in October 2025, provides a regulatory framework for stablecoins like ONDO’s USDY, giving it more legitimacy. However, the SEC’s scrutiny of Nasdaq’s tokenized securities plan (Bitcoin.com) highlights ongoing compliance risks.

What this means:
Clear regulations could help grow USDY’s market, currently valued at $657.72 million. But strict custody rules might delay new product launches. Additionally, ONDO’s connection to World Liberty Financial, which is aligned with former President Trump, introduces political risks, especially if crypto policies change after the 2024 elections.

Conclusion

ONDO’s price will depend on whether growth in tokenized real-world assets can outweigh selling pressure from token unlocks. Technical indicators show neutral momentum, with the price consolidating between $0.73 and $0.82, similar to patterns seen in Q2 2025. Key events to watch include the 21Shares ETF decision and the large token unlock of 342 million tokens in November 2025. A price move above the $0.83 Fibonacci resistance level could signal a bullish trend.

Will institutional buying be enough to balance out selling from token unlocks?

What are people saying about ONDO?

ONDO’s price chart suggests a possible breakout, while large investors are focusing on real-world assets. Here’s what’s happening:

1. Technical indicators suggest ONDO could rise above $1.50 if it breaks key resistance levels.
2. ETF filings are driving speculation that big financial institutions might start investing.
3. Whales (large holders) are buying near the $0.75 support level, even though the overall trend has been weak.

Deep Dive

1. @VipRoseTr: Bullish flag pattern points to $2.00 target

"ONDO holds MA50 in bullish flag pattern – breakout could target $1.14 → $2.00"
– @VipRoseTr (23K followers · 12K impressions · 2025-09-02 19:58 UTC)
View original post
What this means: This is a positive sign for ONDO. The MA50, or 50-day moving average, is acting like a support line that helps keep the price steady. If ONDO breaks out of this “flag” pattern, it could lead to a strong price increase.

2. TheStreet: ETF filing by 21Shares sparks optimism

"21Shares files for ONDO ETF, aiming to track tokenized RWA performance"
– TheStreet (6.2M followers · 890K impressions · 2025-10-06 17:59 UTC)
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What this means: This is good news for ONDO because if the ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund) gets approved, it could bring in money from traditional financial markets. According to Coinmarketcap, ONDO’s real-world asset (RWA) focused total value locked (TVL) was already $1.18 billion as of July 2025.

3. CryptoFrontNews: Key $0.7550 support level under pressure

"ONDO tests critical $0.7550 support – whales accumulate despite 3-month range"
– CryptoFrontNews (148K followers · 220K impressions · 2025-06-07 09:15 UTC)
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What this means: This is a mixed signal. Large investors are buying near $0.75, showing confidence in the long term. However, ONDO has struggled to break above $0.95 resistance since August 2025, indicating weak upward momentum.

Conclusion

The outlook for ONDO is mixed. Positive technical signs and ETF-related news are balanced by stubborn resistance levels. Traders are watching closely to see if the $0.75 support holds. If it breaks, the bullish trend could be invalidated. But if it holds, ONDO might be set for a rally in the last quarter of the year. Keep an eye on the RSI (Relative Strength Index), currently at 53, for clues on potential price moves during retests.

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What is the latest news about ONDO?

Ondo is capitalizing on the growing trend of tokenization with new regulatory approvals and partnerships. Here are the key updates:

1. Tokenized Treasuries Reach $788M (October 25, 2025) – Ondo’s OUSG fund ranks third in the $8.41 billion tokenized U.S. bond market.
2. GENIUS Act Sparks Discussion (October 22, 2025) – Ondo supports the new U.S. stablecoin law, but some experts warn it could lead to a shift away from traditional bank deposits.
3. Blockchain.com Stocks Launch (October 20, 2025) – Non-U.S. users can now access over 100 tokenized U.S. stocks and ETFs through Ondo.

Deep Dive

1. Tokenized Treasuries Reach $788M (October 25, 2025)

Overview:
The market for tokenized U.S. Treasuries grew by 1.31% last week, reaching $8.41 billion as more investors turn to blockchain-based investment products. Ondo’s OUSG fund holds $788.3 million, making it the third-largest player behind BlackRock’s BUIDL ($2.85 billion) and Franklin Templeton’s BENJI ($851.6 million). Most of these assets are on Ethereum ($4.3 billion), but Ondo operates across seven different blockchain networks.
What this means:
Ondo is playing a key role in connecting traditional finance yields with decentralized finance (DeFi) accessibility. However, competition is heating up, with Superstate’s USTB fund growing 31.8% monthly. Ondo’s 17.58% market share depends on keeping its yields attractive, especially against competitors like Circle, which charges no management fees.
(Bitcoin.com)

2. GENIUS Act Sparks Discussion (October 22, 2025)

Overview:
The GENIUS Act is the first U.S. federal law to regulate stablecoins, requiring transparency of reserves and banning algorithmic stablecoins. Ondo’s Ian De Bode praised the law for encouraging institutional involvement, but banking groups warn it could cause $6.6 trillion to move away from traditional bank deposits. Senator Elizabeth Warren criticized the law for weak consumer protections and potential conflicts of interest linked to supporters connected to former President Trump.
What this means:
Clearer regulations could help Ondo grow its compliant real-world asset (RWA) offerings, but political opposition and risks of deposit shifts remain concerns. The law excludes DeFi-native assets, which may limit Ondo’s use of algorithmic strategies.
(Yahoo Finance)

3. Blockchain.com Stocks Launch (October 20, 2025)

Overview:
Ondo teamed up with Blockchain.com to offer tokenized U.S. stocks and ETFs to users outside the U.S., allowing fractional ownership and 24/7 trading. The pricing is linked dynamically to traditional stock exchanges, aiming to provide better liquidity than earlier tokenization efforts.
What this means:
By reaching Blockchain.com’s 93 million+ wallets, Ondo could make U.S. equities more accessible worldwide. The success of this initiative depends on navigating regulatory challenges and matching the speed of traditional stock settlements.
(Yahoo Finance)

Conclusion

Ondo is strengthening its position in the tokenized finance space through regulatory support, innovative yield products, and strategic partnerships. While the outlook for real-world asset adoption is positive, questions remain: Can Ondo’s OUSG fund surpass BlackRock’s dominance? And will global regulators align quickly enough to support Ondo’s international growth?

What is expected in the development of ONDO?

Ondo’s upcoming plans focus on growing the use of real-world asset (RWA) tokenization and increasing adoption by institutions.

1. Global Markets Expansion (Q4 2025) – Growing tokenized stocks and ETFs through new partnerships.
2. Ondo Chain Improvements (2026) – Upgrading blockchain technology with a focus on compliance.
3. Ondo Points Second Wave (2025) – Expanding rewards and partnerships in the ecosystem.
4. Regulatory Progress (2025–2026) – Working with the SEC to create clear rules for RWAs.

Deep Dive

1. Global Markets Expansion (Q4 2025)

Overview: Ondo plans to grow its Global Markets platform, which turns traditional assets like stocks and ETFs into digital tokens. Recent partnerships with BNB Chain, Bitget, and LayerZero aim to make it easier to trade these assets across different blockchains (Ondo Finance).
What this means: This is a positive sign for ONDO because more institutional investors could increase demand for governance and other platform features. However, regulatory delays, especially in the U.S., could slow progress.

2. Ondo Chain Enhancements (2026)

Overview: Ondo Chain, launched in early 2025, is a permissioned Layer-1 blockchain built to support compliant trading of RWAs. Planned upgrades will improve validator decentralization and allow better integration with enterprise blockchains like JPMorgan’s Onyx (Bitso Blog).
What this means: This is cautiously optimistic. Better infrastructure could attract traditional financial institutions, but success depends on balancing decentralization with regulatory compliance.

3. Ondo Points Second Wave (2025)

Overview: Ondo’s loyalty program will enter a new phase, offering retroactive rewards to new partners and expanding beyond current decentralized finance (DeFi) projects (Ondo Foundation).
What this means: This could increase user engagement and total value locked (TVL), which is positive. However, if rewards are seen as inflationary without clear benefits, it could have a negative effect.

4. Regulatory Milestones (2025–2026)

Overview: Ondo is actively engaging with the SEC to clarify regulations around RWAs. It recently acquired Oasis Pro, a licensed broker-dealer, to strengthen compliance efforts (Cryptomus). A decision on the 21Shares Ondo ETF, which would connect traditional finance and DeFi, is still pending.
What this means: This is a high-stakes moment. Approval could bring significant institutional investment, while rejection might slow momentum.

Conclusion

Ondo’s roadmap aims to connect traditional financial markets with blockchain technology through partnerships, regulatory work, and improved infrastructure. While its focus on RWAs fits the growing trend of institutional crypto adoption, challenges remain around compliance and market competition. The key question is how changing regulations will impact Ondo’s ability to stay ahead in the tokenized asset space.

What updates are there in the ONDO code base?

Ondo is making big strides in building secure, institution-ready infrastructure for real-world assets (RWAs).

1. Ondo Chain Launch (August 12, 2025) – A new blockchain that connects traditional finance (TradFi) and decentralized finance (DeFi) with instant, cross-chain transactions.
2. Security & Compliance Updates (July 2025) – Improved smart contract audits and tools to meet regulatory requirements for tokenized assets.
3. Developer Activity Boost (July 2025) – A 40% jump in developer contributions focused on scaling real-world asset solutions.

Deep Dive

1. Ondo Chain Launch (August 12, 2025)

What is it? Ondo Chain is a new blockchain built with Cosmos SDK that’s compatible with Ethereum’s technology (EVM). It enables secure, instant transactions between private blockchains (like those used by big banks such as J.P. Morgan) and public blockchains.

Using Chainlink’s secure environment, Ondo Chain supports “Delivery-versus-Payment” transactions, which means assets like government bonds and stocks can be tokenized and traded while following all compliance rules. The system is designed for fast processing and strong investor protections.

Why it matters: This development is positive for ONDO because it bridges traditional finance and DeFi, making it easier for large institutions to adopt blockchain technology. Users can move tokenized assets across different blockchains smoothly and access liquidity around the clock.
(Source)

2. Security & Compliance Updates (July 2025)

What is it? In July, Ondo focused on making its platform safer and more compliant. This included third-party audits of smart contracts managing $1.38 billion in government bonds and adding tools for Know Your Customer (KYC) and Anti-Money Laundering (AML) checks.

They also introduced modular compliance features, so developers can easily add legal requirements based on different regions when creating tokenized assets.

Why it matters: This is a cautiously positive step. While it adds some complexity, it reduces regulatory risks and builds trust with institutions. Developers will need to follow stricter rules, but everyday users benefit from safer exposure to tokenized real-world assets.
(Source)

3. Developer Activity Boost (July 2025)

What is it? Developer contributions on Ondo’s GitHub jumped 40% month-over-month in July. Over 120 developers worked on projects like Ondo Chain’s testnet, Flux Finance upgrades, and partnerships with companies like Mastercard’s Multi-Token Network.

Key stats:

• 152% increase in daily active developers
• 65% of code updates focused on cross-chain compatibility

Why it matters: More developers usually mean faster improvements and innovation. The focus on enterprise partnerships shows Ondo is preparing for regulated financial markets.
(Source)

Conclusion

Ondo is evolving into a compliance-first platform for institutional real-world assets, combining Ethereum-compatible flexibility with traditional finance security standards. With cross-chain settlements now live and developer activity at an all-time high, ONDO is positioning itself as essential infrastructure for tokenized capital markets.

Will Ondo Chain’s hybrid design become the go-to standard for regulated asset tokenization?
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Why did the price of ONDO go up?

Ondo (ONDO) increased by 2.98% in the last 24 hours, outperforming the overall crypto market, which rose by 2.13%. Here’s why:

1. Growth in Tokenized Treasuries – BlackRock’s BUIDL fund brought in $749 million over 30 days, boosting confidence in real-world asset (RWA) leaders like Ondo.
2. Expansion of Global Markets – Ondo launched tokenized U.S. stocks and ETFs on Blockchain.com on October 20, making these assets more accessible.
3. Technical Recovery – ONDO’s price moved back above important moving averages, indicating short-term positive momentum.

Deep Dive

1. Growth in Tokenized Assets (Positive for Ondo)

What’s happening: Tokenized U.S. Treasuries reached $8.41 billion this week, up 1.31%. Ondo’s OUSG token holds $788.3 million of that. BlackRock’s BUIDL fund led the inflows, supporting the idea that real-world assets on blockchain are gaining traction.
Why it matters: Ondo is one of the top players in tokenized Treasuries, attracting investors looking for blockchain-based assets that generate yield. The sector now has over 52,700 holders, showing growing interest from both institutions and everyday investors.
Keep an eye on: Competition from Franklin Templeton’s BENJI token, which grew 16.1% to $851.6 million, and Circle’s USYC token, up 8% to $623 million.

2. Ondo’s Global Markets Launch (Positive for Ondo)

What’s happening: On October 20, Ondo made over 100 tokenized U.S. stocks and ETFs available on Blockchain.com, which has more than 93 million wallets. This allows users worldwide to trade fractional shares anytime.
Why it matters: This move connects traditional finance (TradFi) with decentralized finance (DeFi), potentially increasing demand for ONDO, which is the governance token for Ondo’s platform. This follows PancakeSwap joining Ondo’s Alliance on October 21 to help improve liquidity.

3. Technical Recovery (Mixed Signals)

What’s happening: ONDO’s price rose above its 7-day simple and exponential moving averages (both at $0.73). The MACD indicator turned positive, and the RSI is at 41.47, suggesting there’s room for price growth before it becomes overbought.
Why it matters: Traders might be buying after ONDO’s 15.7% drop over the past month. However, resistance is expected near $0.826, based on the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. If ONDO closes above $0.78, it could aim for $0.82 to $0.83.

Conclusion

Ondo’s recent gains reflect strong momentum in real-world assets, strategic product launches, and some technical buying interest. However, the price is still about 25% below its 90-day high. Key points to watch: Can ONDO stay above $0.75 while the Altcoin Season Index remains low at 26/100? Also, keep an eye on trading volumes and regulatory updates related to the GENIUS Act’s stablecoin rules.