Why did the price of TIA fall?
Celestia (TIA) dropped 2.64% in the last 24 hours, continuing a steep 38% decline over the past week. This recent fall reflects both overall market weakness and challenges specific to the project.
- Token Unlocks Increase Selling Pressure – About $9.6 million worth of TIA tokens were unlocked this month, adding more supply to the market.
- Polychain Capital’s Exit Raises Concerns – Polychain sold $62.5 million of TIA to the Celestia Foundation, sparking worries about centralization.
- Bearish Technical Signals – The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows the token is oversold, but it still fell below important price averages.
In-Depth Analysis
1. Token Unlocks Add to Market Supply (Negative Impact)
What happened: On October 5, Celestia unlocked about 9.62 million TIA tokens, worth roughly $9.6 million. This is part of a larger trend, with over $1 billion in crypto tokens unlocking across the industry this month (Cointribune). Another 4.67 million TIA tokens were unlocked on October 12.
Why it matters: When tokens are unlocked, they become available for sale, increasing the supply in the market. If demand is weak, this can push prices down. Celestia’s low turnover ratio (0.182) means there isn’t much trading activity, which can make price swings more extreme.
What to watch: Other big token unlocks from projects like Avalanche ($50.1 million) and LayerZero ($55 million) scheduled between October 19 and 30 could further dampen the mood for altcoins.
2. Polychain Capital’s $62.5 Million Sale Sparks Worries (Negative Impact)
What happened: In July 2025, Polychain Capital sold its remaining 43.4 million TIA tokens (worth $62.5 million) to the Celestia Foundation (Blockworks). These tokens are being gradually released back into the market through November 14.
Why it matters: When a major investor like Polychain exits, it can signal a loss of confidence in the project. Since the Celestia Foundation now controls these tokens, there are concerns about centralization and potential future selling pressure.
What to watch: Keep an eye on the Foundation’s wallet activity to see when and how these tokens are redistributed.
3. Technical Indicators Point to Possible Further Decline (Mixed Impact)
Current status: TIA is trading at about $0.94, below key moving averages like the 7-day average ($1.32) and the 200-day average ($2.05). The RSI is at 24.81, indicating the token is oversold, while the MACD shows ongoing bearish momentum.
What this means: Although the oversold condition might lead to a short-term price bounce, breaking below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level ($1.53) suggests weak support until the $0.65 level, which is the 78.6% retracement.
What to watch: A price move above the 20-day exponential moving average ($1.23) could signal a short-term recovery.
Conclusion
Celestia’s recent price drop is driven by a combination of increased token supply from unlocks, loss of investor confidence following Polychain’s exit, and weak technical signals. While the oversold condition might trigger a brief rebound, a sustained recovery will depend on how well the market absorbs over $200 million in monthly token unlocks and the stability of Bitcoin’s market dominance (currently 59.76%).
Key point to monitor: Will TIA hold the $0.92–$0.94 price range, or will it fall back to test the yearly low near $0.65? Pay close attention to how the market handles the October 12 token unlock.
What could affect the price of TIA?
Celestia’s price is currently caught between positive technical upgrades and the pressure from new tokens entering the market.
- Matcha Upgrade (Positive) – Improvements in scalability and a cut in inflation could increase the token’s usefulness.
- Token Unlocks (Negative) – Over $13 million worth of TIA tokens will be released soon, which might lead to short-term selling.
- Ecosystem Growth (Mixed) – New Layer 2 projects adopting Celestia versus growing competition in modular blockchain technology.
In-Depth Look
1. Matcha Upgrade & Inflation Reduction (Positive Impact)
What’s happening:
Celestia’s Matcha upgrade is currently live on the test network and will soon launch on the main network. This upgrade increases the block size to 128MB, lowers the inflation rate from 5% to 2.5%, and removes restrictions on cross-chain assets. These changes aim to make TIA more useful in decentralized finance (DeFi) and reduce the number of tokens being sold from staking rewards.
Why it matters:
Lower inflation means fewer new tokens are created, which can make TIA more valuable and attractive as collateral. Better support for cross-chain assets could increase demand for “blobspace” — the data storage space on Celestia — which directly leads to more TIA tokens being burned (removed from circulation). Similar upgrades in other blockchains, like Ethereum’s EIP-1559, have shown that burning fees can help balance out inflation.
2. Token Unlocks & Investor Selling (Negative Impact)
What’s happening:
More than $13 million worth of TIA tokens are scheduled to be unlocked and enter circulation through October 2025. This is part of a larger trend where over $1 billion in crypto tokens are becoming available. Additionally, Polychain Capital recently sold its $62.5 million stake in TIA to the Celestia Foundation, indicating early investors are cashing out.
Why it matters:
These unlocks add roughly 995,000 TIA tokens daily to the market, slowing to about 344,000 tokens per day in about 55 days. Combined with Polychain’s sale, this could lead to an oversupply of tokens in the short term. Similar token unlock events in 2025 caused TIA’s price to drop 38% within a week (source).
3. Layer 2 Adoption vs. Competition (Mixed Impact)
What’s happening:
Projects like Bullet, a Layer 2 solution on Solana, are using Celestia for data availability, aiming to handle trading volumes similar to centralized exchanges. However, competitors like Avail and EigenDA are also gaining attention in the modular blockchain space.
Why it matters:
Bullet’s test network shows impressive speed with 1.2 milliseconds latency, outperforming Solana itself. If Bullet and other projects continue to adopt Celestia, demand for blobspace — and therefore TIA — could increase. But Celestia needs to maintain its lead over competitors to keep its roughly 50% market share (source).
Conclusion
TIA’s future depends on whether increased adoption after the Matcha upgrade can balance out the selling pressure from token unlocks. Key factors to watch include:
- Demand for blobspace from Layer 2 projects like Bullet.
- Changes to staking rewards in the upcoming Lotus upgrade (expected late 2025), which may lock rewards.
- Shifts in overall market sentiment, especially if Bitcoin’s dominance (currently 59.8%) changes.
Will the benefits of lower inflation and ecosystem growth finally outweigh the challenges from token unlocks?
What are people saying about TIA?
Celestia’s recent price moves and large investor activity have caught attention, but caution remains. Here’s the key info:
- Potential breakout – A technical pattern suggests a move toward $4.20
- Big sell-off – Polychain sold $62.5 million worth of TIA to the Celestia Foundation
- Critical support level – The $1.43-$1.45 price range is crucial for maintaining momentum
In-Depth Look
1. Descending channel breakout signals optimism
According to @VipRoseTr, Celestia is breaking through resistance at $6.20 with strong trading volume, aiming for targets between $2.20 and $4.20.
View original post
What this means: This pattern indicates traders expect upward momentum if Celestia stays above $2.20. However, the current price is around $0.94, so it would need to more than double to reach the first target.
2. Polychain’s large TIA sale raises concerns
CoinMarketCap reports that Polychain sold over 44 million TIA tokens (about 7% of all tokens available) to the Celestia Foundation before upcoming staking changes.
View original post
What this means: Although this move is described as strategic, such a large sale can increase selling pressure and worries about early investors offloading their holdings.
3. Support zone under pressure
Coinglass notes that Celestia is testing a key support zone between $1.43 and $1.45. Falling below this could lead to a 15% price drop.
Read report via CoinMarketCap
What this means: This is the fourth time this support area has been tested in 2025. A weekly close below $1.43 would challenge the current bullish outlook.
Summary
The outlook for Celestia is mixed. On one hand, technical signals hint at a possible price breakout. On the other, large token sales and cautious on-chain data suggest ongoing challenges. While Celestia’s technology is gaining traction—over 30 rollups are using its data availability layer—the price remains affected by broader crypto market trends and a significant annual decline of 82%. Keep an eye on the 14-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1.02; holding above this could indicate a positive shift, while dropping below $0.90 might lead to new yearly lows.
What is the latest news about TIA?
Celestia is managing upcoming token releases and strategic changes while growing its modular blockchain network. Here’s the latest update:
- October Token Unlocks (October 6, 2025) – 9.62 million TIA tokens worth about $9.62 million will be released, part of a larger market-wide unlock totaling over $1 billion.
- Bullet Layer 2 Integration (September 29, 2025) – Bullet, a Solana-based platform for perpetual contracts, is using Celestia for data availability.
- Polychain Exit & Staking Changes (July 24, 2025) – Celestia Foundation bought 43.45 million TIA tokens from Polychain for $62.5 million and updated staking rewards to reduce selling pressure.
Detailed Overview
1. October Token Unlocks (October 6, 2025)
What happened:
Celestia released 9.62 million TIA tokens on October 5, 2025. This release is part of a larger wave of token unlocks across the crypto market, totaling about $1.05 billion, including projects like Aptos and ENS. These scheduled releases could increase selling if demand doesn’t keep up with supply.
What it means:
This event is neutral for TIA since the unlocks were planned, but there is some risk if market sentiment turns negative. Traders are watching how well the market absorbs these tokens. Currently, TIA’s trading volume compared to the unlocked tokens suggests there is enough liquidity to handle the release without major disruption. (Cointribune)
2. Bullet Layer 2 Integration (September 29, 2025)
What happened:
Bullet, a Layer 2 solution built on Solana for perpetual contracts (a type of derivative), has chosen Celestia to handle data availability. Early tests show Bullet’s system responds in about 1.2 milliseconds, much faster than Solana’s 400 milliseconds, aiming to match the speed of centralized exchanges.
What it means:
This is a positive development for TIA because it highlights Celestia’s potential in supporting fast, high-volume blockchain applications. If Bullet’s mainnet launch later in 2025 succeeds, it could encourage more Layer 2 projects to use Celestia. (Blockworks)
3. Polychain Exit & Staking Changes (July 24, 2025)
What happened:
The Celestia Foundation purchased 43.45 million TIA tokens from Polychain for $62.5 million. These tokens will be gradually released back into the market. At the same time, Celestia updated its staking rewards system to lock rewards based on how many tokens are vested, aiming to reduce the amount of tokens sold immediately after rewards are earned.
What it means:
This move is generally positive because it prevents a large sell-off from Polychain’s exit. However, upcoming token unlocks for new investors between August and November 2025, along with the staking changes, will need to be watched closely. The goal is to create a more stable governance and token economy over time. (Bitcoin Info News)
Conclusion
Celestia is carefully balancing the risks of upcoming token unlocks with growth in its blockchain infrastructure and changes in investor behavior. While new partnerships like Bullet strengthen its position, the tokenomics adjustments will be tested as more than $13 million worth of TIA tokens are set to unlock soon. The key question is whether the updated staking system can offset the increased token supply. Keep an eye on Celestia’s on-chain activity this October for signs of how this plays out.
What is expected in the development of TIA?
Celestia’s development is moving forward with these key milestones:
- 1 GB Blocks (2026) – Increasing data capacity to handle transaction volumes similar to Visa.
- Browser Light Nodes (Q4 2025) – Allowing users to verify data directly in their web browsers without needing trusted third parties.
- Blobstream Expansion (2026) – Connecting Celestia’s data to other major blockchains like Ethereum and Solana.
Deep Dive
1. 1 GB Blocks (2026)
Overview: Celestia plans to increase its block size to 1 gigabyte, which means it can process about 16 times more data than the current 128 MB blocks. This upgrade is designed to support demanding applications such as fully on-chain gaming and payment systems. It uses advanced techniques like 2D Reed-Solomon encoding and zero-knowledge proofs to verify blocks efficiently.
What this means: This is positive for Celestia (TIA) because it boosts the usefulness of its data space, but the price could be affected if adoption doesn’t keep pace with the technical improvements.
2. Browser Light Nodes (Q4 2025)
Overview: Light nodes are simplified versions of blockchain nodes that will run directly in web browsers. This lets users independently verify Celestia’s data without relying on centralized servers. An early version is already available at nodes.gm.xyz.
What this means: This development is neutral for price in the short term but good for decentralization. It reduces dependence on third-party infrastructure, making Celestia a more trustworthy and neutral data availability layer.
3. Blobstream Expansion (2026)
Overview: Blobstream will allow Celestia’s data to be verified across other blockchains like Ethereum and Solana. This builds on previous upgrades that improved interoperability by removing token restrictions for cross-chain communication.
What this means: This is positive for TIA’s role as a cross-chain data routing asset, but its success depends on how widely partner blockchains adopt the technology.
Conclusion
Celestia’s roadmap focuses on three main goals: scaling data capacity (1 GB blocks), increasing decentralization (browser light nodes), and improving interoperability (Blobstream). While the technical plans look solid, the future price of TIA depends on how quickly modular blockchains gain traction. With inflation recently cut in half to 2.5% and changes to staking rewards underway, it remains to be seen if reduced selling pressure will match growing demand to stabilize TIA’s value.
What updates are there in the TIA code base?
Celestia (TIA) made significant improvements in 2025 to boost its scalability, token economics, and ability to work with other blockchains.
- Matcha Upgrade (September 2025) – Increased block size to 128MB and lowered inflation to 2.5%.
- Lotus Upgrade (June 2025) – Added Hyperlane for easier cross-chain transfers and cut TIA issuance by 33%.
- Staking Reward Overhaul (June 2025) – Locked staking rewards to match token vesting schedules.
Deep Dive
1. Matcha Upgrade (September 2025)
What happened: Celestia doubled its block size to 128MB, allowing more data to be processed at once. It also made it easier to transfer assets between different blockchains by removing restrictions on which tokens can move across chains. Inflation was cut in half to 2.5%, helping TIA become a more valuable asset for decentralized finance (DeFi).
Why it matters: Bigger blocks mean the network can handle more apps and transactions, which is good for growth. Lower inflation means fewer new tokens flooding the market, which can help maintain or increase TIA’s value. Users get cheaper and faster cross-chain transfers.
(Source)
2. Lotus Upgrade (June 2025)
What happened: Celestia integrated Hyperlane, a tool that lets TIA tokens move directly to popular blockchains like Ethereum and Base. The upgrade also locked staking rewards for accounts with vesting schedules to prevent early selling. Inflation was reduced from 7.2% to about 5%.
Why it matters: In the short term, locking rewards reduces selling pressure, which can stabilize the token price. Long term, better cross-chain compatibility opens up new opportunities for developers to build apps that work across multiple blockchains.
(Source)
3. Staking Reward Lockups (June 2025)
What happened: Celestia aligned staking rewards with token unlock schedules, meaning rewards earned on locked tokens also stay locked until the tokens vest. A 25% cap on validator commissions was introduced to close potential loopholes.
Why it matters: This reduces the chance that large holders will sell their rewards immediately, which helps keep the token price more stable. It also encourages stakers to support the network for the long haul.
(Source)
Conclusion
Celestia’s 2025 upgrades focus on making the network faster, more sustainable, and better connected to other blockchains. With bigger blocks and lower inflation, TIA is positioned to strengthen its role as a modular blockchain platform. The key question is whether these changes will help stabilize TIA’s market value as more tokens become available over time.