Why did the price of LDO fall?

Lido DAO (LDO) dropped 6.39% in the last 24 hours, falling more than the overall crypto market, which declined 2.54%. Three main reasons explain this decline:

1. Institutional selling – Paradigm Capital moved 10 million LDO tokens (worth $8.4 million) to exchanges, continuing a 30-day trend where institutions sold $45.6 million in LDO.
2. Technical weakness – The price hit resistance at $0.96 and showed signs of weakening momentum based on technical indicators like MACD and RSI.
3. Market-wide risk aversion – The Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropped to 37, indicating fear, and altcoin dominance fell 41% over the week.

Deep Dive

1. Institutional Selling Pressure (Bearish Impact)

Overview:
On June 10, Paradigm Capital transferred 10 million LDO tokens (valued at $8.4 million) to wallets linked to exchanges. This is part of a larger pattern where institutional holders moved nearly 48.5 million LDO tokens ($45.6 million) to exchanges since May 2025 (WuBlockchain). Paradigm had previously sold 50 million LDO at $1.31 in November 2024, making a $27.5 million profit.

What this means:
When large institutional investors sell off their holdings, it puts sustained downward pressure on the price. LDO’s 24-hour trading volume rose to $223 million, up 45.8% from the previous day, which can increase price volatility. The wallet known as 0xC4Db, often used by institutions to exit positions, now holds only 10 million LDO, suggesting more selling could happen.

What to watch:
Keep an eye on spikes in LDO tokens moving to exchanges using tools like Nansen or Arkham.

2. Technical Weakness (Bearish Bias)

Overview:
LDO’s price fell below its 7-day and 30-day simple moving averages (SMAs), currently at $0.988 and $1.14 respectively. The MACD indicator shows bearish signals, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 42.8, indicating weakening momentum. The 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $1.11 is now acting as resistance.

What this means:
Breaking below the $0.96 level, which is the 50% retracement of the recent price swing, suggests the recent upward trend has failed. Since trading volume increased during the price drop, sellers are currently in control. If the $0.88 support level doesn’t hold, the price could revisit the June low of $0.84.

3. Altcoin Liquidation Cascade (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
In the last 24 hours, crypto derivatives saw $940 billion in liquidations, with altcoins like LDO hit harder than others. LDO’s open interest (the total number of outstanding contracts) dropped 4.75%, showing traders are reducing their exposure. The Altcoin Season Index fell sharply from 71 to 30 in one month, indicating investors are shifting capital back to Bitcoin.

What this means:
LDO’s price is closely linked to Ethereum (ETH), with a strong negative correlation of -0.89 year-to-date. As ETH’s dominance in the market declined by 7.5% over the past month, tokens related to liquid staking like LDO face lower demand, despite positive news like VanEck’s stETH ETF filing scheduled for October 2.

Conclusion

Lido DAO’s recent price drop is driven by institutional selling, weakening technical support levels, and a broader market shift away from riskier altcoins. Although the VanEck ETF announcement in early October initially boosted optimism, profit-taking and overall market caution erased those gains.

Key level to watch: Can LDO maintain support at $0.88 (the June 2025 low)? If it closes below this level, automated sell orders could push the price down further toward $0.76, which was Paradigm’s entry price back in 2020.

What is expected in the development of LDO?

Lido DAO’s roadmap is focused on making the platform more decentralized and resilient.

1. CSM v2 Rollout (July 2025) – Increasing community staking limits and improving governance structures.
2. Triggerable Withdrawals (July 2025) – Allowing users to exit validators through smart contracts without needing permission.
3. Tokenholder Update Call (August 2025) – Discussing strategies to better align LDO incentives with the growth of the protocol.

Deep Dive

1. CSM v2 Rollout (July 2025)

Overview:
The Community Staking Module (CSM) version 2 will raise the maximum stake an individual can hold to 10% of all ETH staked through Lido. It also introduces updated rules and a system to identify community stakers (Lido Finance). This is designed to encourage a wider range of validators and reduce reliance on a few centralized operators.

What this means:
This is positive for LDO because it supports decentralization, which is important for Ethereum staking platforms. However, if adoption of CSM v2 is slow, it might not significantly increase demand for stETH (Lido’s staked ETH token).

2. Triggerable Withdrawals (July 2025)

Overview:
Based on Ethereum Improvement Proposal 7002 (EIP-7002), this feature lets any user trigger validator exits through Lido’s withdrawal smart contract. This reduces the need for centralized parties to approve unstaking (Lido Finance).

What this means:
This change is somewhat positive. It gives users more control but adds complexity in managing withdrawal requests, especially during busy times, which could impact the liquidity premium of stETH.

3. Tokenholder Update Call (August 2025)

Overview:
On August 14, Lido Labs held a call to discuss how to better align the interests of LDO token holders with the success of the protocol. Topics included managing the treasury and updating governance processes (Lido Finance).

What this means:
This is promising if concrete actions like token buybacks or staking rewards for LDO holders are introduced. However, there is a risk if the plans remain vague or are delayed.

Conclusion

Lido DAO is focusing on decentralization (through CSM v2) and giving users more control (via Triggerable Withdrawals), while also working to better align incentives through governance updates. How well Lido balances innovation with smooth operations will affect how it competes with other platforms like Rocket Pool. Additionally, upcoming Ethereum upgrades, such as Pectra, could influence Lido’s future plans.

What updates are there in the LDO code base?

Lido DAO’s latest software updates strengthen decentralization and improve governance.

1. CSM v2 Launch (July 23, 2025) – Raises limits on community validator stakes and adds a system to identify stakers.
2. Triggerable Withdrawals (July 23, 2025) – Allows anyone to initiate validator exits without needing permission, using Ethereum’s EIP-7002 standard.
3. Dual Governance Start (June 30, 2025) – Gives stETH holders veto power to block or delay proposals.

In-Depth Look

1. CSM v2 Launch (July 23, 2025)

What it is:
The Community Staking Module version 2 increases the maximum stake community validators can hold to 10% of all ETH staked through Lido. It also introduces a Staker Identification Framework to make validator onboarding more transparent.

This update helps spread out validator control, reducing dependence on a few large operators and making the network more decentralized.

Why it matters:
This is positive for Lido DAO (LDO) because it lowers risks related to centralization, which aligns with Ethereum’s goal of a decentralized network. Stakers benefit from a more open and permissionless system.
(Source)

2. Triggerable Withdrawals (July 23, 2025)

What it is:
Triggerable Withdrawals let any user start the process for a validator to exit through Lido’s smart contracts, using Ethereum’s EIP-7002 standard.

This removes the need to rely on node operators to approve withdrawals, making the process smoother and less risky.

Why it matters:
This change is neutral for LDO’s token value but improves user control and autonomy. It also strengthens Lido’s position in the competitive liquid staking market.
(Source)

3. Dual Governance Start (June 30, 2025)

What it is:
Dual Governance gives holders of stETH (Lido’s liquid staking token) the power to veto proposals through a system of dynamic time delays. If 1% of stETH holders oppose a proposal, it gets delayed; if 10% oppose, governance halts entirely (“rage quit”).

This system was carefully audited by security firms like Certora and OpenZeppelin to ensure it’s safe and reliable.

Why it matters:
This is a strong positive for LDO because it reduces the risk of hostile takeovers in governance, increasing trust from institutional investors and the community.
(Source)

Conclusion

Lido DAO’s recent updates focus on making the platform more decentralized, secure, and user-friendly. The CSM v2 and Triggerable Withdrawals encourage broader community involvement, while Dual Governance balances decision-making power between LDO and stETH holders. These improvements could help Lido maintain its leadership in Ethereum’s growing staking ecosystem.

What could affect the price of LDO?

LDO’s future depends on how much people want to stake, changes in governance, and new regulations.

1. ETF Opportunity – VanEck’s application for a stETH ETF could bring in big investors (positive).
2. Governance Changes – New veto rights for stETH holders reduce control by a few (mixed).
3. Regulatory Clarity – SEC says stETH isn’t a security, making it easier for institutions to get involved (positive).

In-Depth Look

1. VanEck’s stETH ETF Proposal (Positive Outlook)

What happened: On October 2, 2025, VanEck filed to create an ETF (exchange-traded fund) based on staked Ethereum (stETH) through Lido. If approved, this ETF would let investors earn rewards from staking Ethereum without dealing with the technical details themselves. Lido is a leader in this space, controlling about 30% of the market with $38 billion in assets staked.

Why it matters: Approval could bring billions of dollars into stETH, boosting Lido’s revenue since it takes a 10% cut of staking rewards. When the news broke, LDO’s price jumped 7% (Cryptotimes). While approval isn’t guaranteed, just the possibility is encouraging for investors.

2. Dual Governance Update (Mixed Impact)

What happened: In July 2025, Lido introduced a Dual Governance system. Now, stETH holders can block proposals by locking up their tokens. If 10% of holders do this, it triggers a “rage quit” option, allowing them to exit. This change aims to reduce the power held by LDO token holders.

Why it matters: This makes the system more decentralized, which is important for attracting institutional investors. However, it could slow down decision-making and make the platform more complicated for new users. After the update, LDO’s price dropped 13% (CoinMarketCap), showing some initial doubts.

3. Regulatory Developments (Positive Outlook)

What happened: On August 6, 2025, the SEC ruled that stETH is not a security. This removes a big legal concern for Lido. Around the same time, Lido reduced its workforce by 15% to better comply with U.S. regulations.

Why it matters: Clearer rules reduce risks and could encourage traditional financial firms to partner with Lido. After the SEC’s announcement, interest in LDO increased by 6.6%, showing growing trader confidence (Crypto News).

Conclusion

LDO’s outlook depends on the balance between new investment from ETFs, challenges from governance changes, and how well it competes with other staking options. Keep an eye on the SEC’s decision about the ETF and how stETH’s rewards compare to alternatives. The big question: Will Ethereum’s Shanghai upgrade create enough staking demand to overcome Lido’s governance hurdles?

What are people saying about LDO?

Lido DAO’s community chat is buzzing with a mix of optimistic price predictions and cautious selling moves. Here’s the latest:

1. Profitability pushes price target to $2.55
2. Big institutions sell over $45 million in LDO
3. Traders watch $1.45 as a key breakout point
4. Governance upgrades improve decentralization

In-Depth Look

1. Profitability Drives Optimism

John Morgan (@johnmorganFL) notes that Lido became profitable in August for the first time since 2021. He expects the price to reach $2.55 if a certain technical pattern called a “wedge” breaks.
Why it matters: Profitability means Lido’s operating costs are covered, which can reduce selling pressure and attract institutional investors. With a market cap of $815 million compared to over $38 billion in total value locked (TVL), LDO may be undervalued.
See original post

2. Institutions Are Selling

Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) reports that Paradigm Capital sold 10 million LDO tokens, worth about $8.4 million, moving them to exchanges. This is part of a larger trend where 48.5 million LDO (around $45.6 million) have been transferred to exchanges since May 2025.
Why it matters: This selling by early investors could create resistance to price gains, signaling caution for traders.
See original post

3. Key Price Level at $1.45

According to a CoinMarketCap community post, LDO bounced 13% from a support level of $1.28. Breaking above $1.45 could open the way to $1.55.
Why it matters: Short-term momentum favors buyers, but technical indicators suggest gains might be limited before a pullback. Also, LDO’s price often moves in relation to Bitcoin’s performance.
See original post

4. Governance Upgrades Strengthen Control

Lido Finance (@LidoFinance) announced a new “Dual Governance” system that gives stETH holders the power to block harmful proposals. If 10% of holders disagree, they can trigger a “rage quit” to exit.
Why it matters: This makes the protocol more decentralized and reduces risks from bad decisions or regulatory issues. Lido is the first major project to give stakers this veto power.
See original post

Conclusion

The outlook for Lido DAO (LDO) is mixed. On one hand, profitability and governance improvements are positive signs. On the other, large institutional sell-offs near the $1.50 price level suggest caution. Keep an eye on the 0xC4Db wallet, linked to Paradigm/FalconX, as its next moves could influence market momentum. Ultimately, LDO’s future depends on Ethereum’s staking growth and Bitcoin’s price stability.

What is the latest news about LDO?

Lido DAO is navigating excitement around ETFs and buyback programs while facing some downward pressure on its token. Here are the key updates:

1. VanEck Files for Lido Staked Ethereum ETF (October 2, 2025) – The first U.S. ETF focused on staked Ethereum could increase interest from big investors in LDO.
2. Treasury Buyback Program Starts (September 2025) – Lido plans to use up to 70% of its revenue to buy back LDO tokens, aiming to reduce supply and support the price.
3. SEC Clarifies Rules on Liquid Staking (August 2025) – New regulatory guidance supports Lido’s business model and lowers legal risks.

In-Depth Look

1. VanEck Files for Lido Staked Ethereum ETF (October 2, 2025)

What happened:
VanEck submitted paperwork to launch an ETF based on Lido’s staked Ethereum holdings, which currently represent over $38 billion in assets. This ETF would allow investors to earn staking rewards (about 4% per year) without having to manage the technical side of staking themselves. After the announcement, LDO’s price jumped 7%, and trading activity increased significantly.

Why it matters:
This move highlights Lido’s important role in Ethereum staking and could bring more institutional investors into LDO. However, the ETF still needs approval from the SEC, and other big firms like BlackRock might enter the space soon. (CoinGape)

2. Treasury Buyback Program Starts (September 2025)

What happened:
Lido DAO approved a plan to use stETH and stablecoins from its treasury to buy back LDO tokens. Up to 70% of new revenue will go toward repurchasing tokens, with a $50 million reserve kept as a safety net. The program will begin with a test phase in December 2025.

Why it matters:
Buying back tokens can help reduce the number of LDO tokens available on the market, which may support the price over time. The success of this program depends on Lido continuing to generate strong revenue (currently about $90 million annually) and favorable market conditions.

3. SEC Clarifies Rules on Liquid Staking (August 2025)

What happened:
The SEC issued guidance that exempts certain liquid staking activities from being classified as securities, easing regulatory concerns. Lido’s updated governance model, launched in July 2025, complies with these new rules.

Why it matters:
This regulatory clarity reduces legal risks for Lido and makes it more attractive to institutional investors. While Lido strengthens its position as a compliant leader, it still faces competition from centralized staking providers.

Conclusion

Lido DAO is balancing promising developments like ETF filings and buybacks with recent downward pressure on its token price (LDO dropped 24% this week). Regulatory progress and product improvements help build confidence, but the token’s future depends on ETF approval and how well the buyback program performs. The big question is whether institutional investment can offset selling pressure from retail investors as interest in altcoins cools.