What could affect the price of RAY?

Raydium’s price depends largely on Solana’s performance, competition in the market, and upcoming upgrades to its platform.

1. LaunchLab Growth – $900K in daily fees supports RAY token buybacks, but competition from Pump.fun is a concern.
2. Solana’s Firedancer Upgrade – Planned for Q3 2025, this network upgrade could increase Raydium’s usage.
3. Regulatory Limits – Restrictions in key countries limit user growth, affecting 27% of the crypto market.

Deep Dive

1. LaunchLab Adoption vs. Competition (Mixed Impact)

Overview: Raydium’s LaunchLab generated $900,000 in daily fees as of August 2025, from 35,000 token launches. Half of these fees go toward buying back RAY tokens daily. However, Pump.fun took 44% of Solana’s memecoin market share in July 2025, drawing users away. Raydium’s turnover ratio is 0.13, much lower than Uniswap’s 0.41, which suggests liquidity could be a problem.

What this means: If LaunchLab continues to grow, it could reduce the supply of RAY tokens through buybacks, potentially offering a 6% annual return at current prices. But to maintain this, Raydium must compete with Pump.fun’s growing influence and address liquidity challenges that can cause price swings.

2. Solana Ecosystem Synergy (Bullish Impact)

Overview: Raydium handles 95% of Solana’s tokenized stock trading. The upcoming Firedancer upgrade, expected in Q3 2025, aims to increase Solana’s transaction speed to over 1 million per second, which could attract more projects to Raydium’s platform.

What this means: Faster network speeds could lead to more trading volume on Raydium and greater use of the RAY token. In the past, RAY’s price surge to $8.52 in 2025 coincided with Solana’s total value locked (TVL) reaching $13 billion (CMC Community).

3. Regulatory & Liquidity Risks (Bearish Impact)

Overview: Raydium restricts users from the US, UK, and 13 other countries, which together represent 27% of the global crypto market. Additionally, Raydium’s 24-hour trading volume is $16.6 million—98% less than Uniswap’s $467 million.

What this means: These geographic restrictions limit Raydium’s potential user base, while low trading volume increases the risk of price slippage. The token’s 65% drop over the past 90 days reflects these ongoing challenges.

Conclusion

Raydium’s future is closely linked to Solana’s technology improvements and LaunchLab’s ability to keep generating revenue from new token launches, despite regulatory hurdles. While buybacks and the Firedancer upgrade offer positive momentum, RAY remains sensitive to Solana’s overall ecosystem health and competition from other decentralized exchanges.

The key question: Can LaunchLab’s daily fees continue to grow by 60% after the Firedancer upgrade, or will liquidity shift to competitors like Pump.fun?

What are people saying about RAY?

Raydium (RAY) is getting a lot of attention lately, with discussions focusing on its price movements and its role in Solana’s decentralized finance (DeFi) space. Here’s what’s trending:

1. Price hit resistance at $3.80, raising concerns about a potential drop
2. If it breaks $3.50, it could climb toward $6.17
3. Listing on FTX Japan caused trading volumes to surge by over 660%

Deep Dive

1. @alicharts: $3.80 resistance could lead to a 60% drop — bearish outlook

“This last rejection at $3.80 could send Raydium $RAY back to $1.50!”
– @alicharts (164K followers · 8,154 posts · 2025-09-02 23:02 UTC)
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What this means: The price failing to break above $3.80 suggests weakening momentum. If support levels fail, RAY could fall to between $1.50 and $2.00, signaling a bearish trend.

2. @mkbijaksana: Breaking $3.50 could push price up to $6.17 — bullish outlook

“RAY trying to break resistance around 3.5... aim for 6.17 area”
– @mkbijaksana (Unlisted followers · 2025-08-27 06:52 UTC)
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What this means: If Raydium can hold above $3.50, technical analysts expect a strong rally, potentially reaching $6.17. This depends on continued growth in the Solana ecosystem.

3. @genius_sirenBSC: FTX Japan listing drives a 660% increase in trading volume — bullish outlook

“Surprise FTX Japan listing... sent volumes soaring over 660%”
– @genius_sirenBSC (79K followers · 2025-06-19 13:40 UTC)
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What this means: The listing on FTX Japan opened up access to Japanese yen liquidity, significantly boosting Raydium’s trading activity. This led to $120 million locked in new Riptide Farms vaults, showing strong fundamental support.

Conclusion

The outlook for Raydium (RAY) is mixed. On one hand, the growth of Solana’s DeFi ecosystem and new features like Raydium X v2 and Riptide Farms show strong fundamentals. On the other hand, technical challenges around the $3.80 price level create uncertainty in the short term. Keep an eye on the $3.30 to $3.50 range for signs of the next move.

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What is the latest news about RAY?

Raydium (RAY) is navigating changes in Solana’s decentralized finance (DeFi) space with a focus on its strong structure, price outlook, and liquidity challenges.

1. Post-Bear Market Status (Dec 24, 2025) – RAY stands out for its deep liquidity as the market reshapes in early 2026.
2. 2026 Price Outlook (Dec 23, 2025) – Technical signals suggest RAY could bounce back to $1.85 if it breaks key resistance levels.
3. Solana TVL Drop (Dec 18, 2025) – RAY’s liquidity is under pressure as Solana’s total value locked (TVL) hits a six-month low.

In-Depth Analysis

1. Post-Bear Market Status (December 24, 2025)

Summary:
Raydium remains a key player in Solana’s DeFi ecosystem, known for its stable price patterns and reliable performance. Despite a 65% drop in price this year, it continues to serve as Solana’s main decentralized exchange (DEX) for token launches and swaps.

What this means:
This is a neutral sign for RAY. Its liquidity setup is still important, but lower on-chain activity (down 46% since September 2025) and shrinking returns limit growth potential. Raydium’s future depends on whether Solana can reignite interest in speculative trading.
(Source: CryptoNewsLand)

2. 2026 Price Outlook (December 23, 2025)

Summary:
RAY is currently priced at $0.89, which is 82% below its all-time high. Technical charts show a downward trend, but breaking above $0.95 could trigger a strong rally, potentially reaching $1.85 by late January 2026. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 42 indicates weak buying momentum.

What this means:
This outlook is cautiously optimistic. If Solana’s DeFi sector recovers, RAY’s usefulness could increase. Still, competition from other platforms like Orca and Jupiter could limit gains. Keep an eye on the $0.95 resistance level and overall activity on Solana’s network for signs of a turnaround.
(Source: CoinMarketCap)

3. Solana TVL Drop (December 18, 2025)

Summary:
Solana’s total value locked (TVL) has fallen to $8.67 billion, a 34% drop since September. This decline has hurt Raydium’s liquidity, with daily trading volume down to $16.6 million. Raydium’s share of Solana’s DEX market has also dropped from 95% earlier in 2025 to 30%.

What this means:
This is a negative sign for RAY. Lower activity in the Solana ecosystem reduces fees and demand for staking. However, since RAY’s price is near historic lows (it hit $0.13 in 2022), some investors might see this as a buying opportunity if Solana’s network recovers.
(Source: Cointribune)

Conclusion

Raydium’s short-term future depends heavily on Solana’s DeFi revival and its ability to hold support around $0.85. While technical indicators hint at a possible rebound, broader challenges like falling TVL and delays in altcoin market growth (Bitcoin dominance at 59%) make gains uncertain. The question remains: can RAY’s hybrid automated market maker (AMM) design regain momentum as Solana pushes forward with tokenization efforts in early 2026?

What is expected in the development of RAY?

Raydium is making progress with these key updates:

1. Rewards Program Expansion (Live) – Offering real-time rewards to traders and creators to encourage more activity.
2. Launchpad Growth (Q3 2025) – Increasing token launches using a bonding curve system.
3. Fee Optimization (Testing) – Adjusting trading fees based on user feedback to find the right balance.

Deep Dive

1. Rewards Program Expansion (Live)

Overview: Raydium launched a rewards program in July 2025 that shares half of its trading fees with users who trade or create content on the platform. It also uses some of its revenue to buy back RAY tokens daily, which can help increase the token’s value (CoinMarketCap Community).
What this means: This is a positive sign for RAY because it links user activity directly to demand for the token, helping reduce the total supply over time. However, the program’s success depends on keeping high trading volumes, especially with competitors like Pump.fun in the market.

2. Launchpad Growth (Q3 2025)

Overview: After the successful launch of the WAVE token in July 2025—where it quickly reached a key milestone—Raydium plans to bring more projects onto its platform using a bonding curve model. So far, over 35,000 tokens have launched through LaunchLab, but only a small fraction (0.62%) have shown long-term success (CoinMarketCap Community).
What this means: This is neutral for RAY. More token launches could increase fee revenue, but the low success rate suggests many projects may be speculative, which could hurt the platform’s reputation.

3. Fee Optimization (Testing)

Overview: Raydium is experimenting with a 1.25% trading fee on new tokens like WAVE. They plan to adjust fees based on feedback from liquidity providers and traders. The goal is to stay competitive compared to platforms like Uniswap, which charges 0.3%, while still generating enough revenue to support the platform (Raydium Docs).
What this means: Higher fees could push users toward cheaper alternatives, which is a downside for RAY. On the other hand, lowering fees might increase trading volume and liquidity, which would benefit the token’s use and value.

Conclusion

Raydium’s future depends on balancing incentives that encourage growth—like rewards and launchpad projects—with challenges such as fee structures and regulatory concerns. The platform’s success in keeping liquidity and adapting within the Solana ecosystem will be key. The big question is whether LaunchLab’s fee-based model can keep driving RAY token buybacks into 2026.

What updates are there in the RAY code base?

Raydium’s latest software update brings big improvements to make trading smoother and liquidity stronger.

1. V3 Beta Launch (July 2025) – Combines traditional AMM pools with OpenBook’s order book for better liquidity.
2. Smart Order Routing (July 2025) – Uses a smart algorithm to find the best prices across all Solana liquidity sources, reducing slippage.
3. Simplified Pool Tools (July 2025) – Lets projects create pools easily with customizable fees and less upfront cost.

Deep Dive

1. V3 Beta Launch (July 2025)

What’s new: Raydium’s V3 Beta now includes OpenBook’s decentralized order book, giving traders access to about 40% more liquidity across Solana’s decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem.

This upgrade merges the usual automated market maker (AMM) pools with live order book data, allowing market makers to set more accurate prices. The update keeps compatibility with older versions, so current liquidity providers don’t need to take immediate action.

Why it matters: More liquidity means less price slippage for traders and makes Raydium a more attractive platform for new token launches, which is good news for RAY holders. (Source)

2. Smart Order Routing (July 2025)

What’s new: A new routing algorithm scans all major Solana liquidity sources, including Serum-v2 forks, to find the best prices for swaps.

It compares prices dynamically across AMM pools and order books, aiming to minimize slippage. Early results show a 15–30% improvement in executing large trades.

Why it matters: Traders get better prices, which can increase the number of swaps on Raydium and boost fee revenue. (Source)

3. Simplified Pool Tools (July 2025)

What’s new: Projects can now create liquidity pools with 85% less upfront capital compared to the previous version. They can also set fees anywhere from 0.01% to 1%.

The easy-to-use, no-code interface lowers barriers for new tokens to launch, and liquidity providers can share fees to encourage more participation. Over 120 new pools were created in the first week after launch.

Why it matters: Lower costs and more flexibility can help the Solana ecosystem grow faster, which indirectly benefits RAY’s use and value. (Source)

Conclusion

Raydium’s V3 Beta upgrade makes it a key liquidity hub on Solana by combining the efficiency of AMMs with the precision of order books. These improvements enhance the experience for both traders and developers, but the platform’s success depends on how well OpenBook’s ecosystem grows. The big question is whether total value locked (TVL) and trading volume will see a strong, lasting increase in the third quarter of 2025.

Why did the price of RAY fall?

Raydium (RAY) dropped 0.8% in the last 24 hours, adding to a 6.7% decline over the past week. This drop follows a broader trend of caution in the cryptocurrency market (with the Fear & Greed Index at 27) and ongoing challenges within the Solana ecosystem. Here are the main points:

1. Market-Wide Caution – Overall crypto trading activity fell 12% (from $90.8 billion to $80.7 billion), with altcoins underperforming Bitcoin, which now holds 59% market dominance.
2. Solana Ecosystem Pressure – The total value locked (TVL) in Solana projects dropped 34% since September, impacting Raydium as the leading decentralized exchange (DEX) on Solana.
3. Technical Weakness – RAY’s price fell below the key $0.90 level and is now testing lows last seen in 2025, with a weak Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 36 indicating oversold conditions.

Deep Dive

1. Altcoin Liquidity Crunch (Bearish Impact)

Overview:
The total volume of crypto spot trading dropped 12% to $80.7 billion in 24 hours (CoinMarketCap). At the same time, funding rates for perpetual contracts turned slightly positive (+0.004%), suggesting that leveraged long positions are being closed. The Altcoin Season Index remains low at 18/100, signaling a "Bitcoin Season" where Bitcoin outperforms altcoins like Raydium, limiting fresh investment in mid-sized coins.

What this means:
Raydium’s 24-hour trading volume of $16.1 million is only 6.7% of its total market value, which is below the 10% liquidity level generally needed to keep prices stable. When markets are thin, negative sentiment can lead to sharper price drops.

2. Solana DeFi Contraction (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
The total value locked in Solana-based decentralized finance (DeFi) projects has fallen to $8.67 billion, down 34% from its peak in September 2025. Major protocols like Jito and Raydium have seen significant outflows, dropping 53% and 46% respectively (CoinTribune). However, Solana’s weekly fee revenue remains strong at $3.43 million, which is three times Raydium’s market cap.

What this means:
Since Raydium acts as a key liquidity provider within the Solana ecosystem, it is especially vulnerable to these downturns. Although Solana’s active user addresses increased by 7% this week to 838,000, this hasn’t yet boosted demand on decentralized exchanges like Raydium.

3. Technical Support Retest (Neutral)

Overview:
Raydium’s price fell below its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) of $2.21 back in November and is now testing a support zone between $0.83 and $0.89, which previously marked the bottom of bear markets in 2023 and 2024. The MACD indicator has turned bearish, even though the RSI shows the asset is oversold at 36.

What to watch:
If the price closes below $0.83, it could trigger automated selling that pushes the price down to around $0.62, a low target for 2026 suggested by the CMC Community.

Conclusion

Raydium’s recent price drop reflects a broader pullback in the crypto market and ongoing challenges in the Solana ecosystem, made worse by low liquidity. While oversold conditions suggest the price may stabilize around $0.85 to $0.90, a meaningful recovery will likely depend on either a revival in Solana’s ecosystem or renewed interest in altcoins across the market.

Key indicator to watch: Solana’s weekly active addresses. A sustained rise above 1 million could signal growing demand for decentralized exchanges like Raydium.