What could affect the price of ETH?

Ethereum’s price is influenced by a mix of upcoming upgrades, big investors getting involved, and changes in how people stake their coins.

1. Fusaka Upgrade (Dec 2025) – This update will improve how Ethereum handles transactions, but there’s still a risk that a few big validators could control too much.
2. ETF Activity – Spot ETH ETFs now manage about $24.94 billion, with weekly inflows and outflows around $360 million.
3. Staking Concerns – Individual stakers might leave if rewards drop due to new rules.
4. Whale Buying – Large holders added 138,000 ETH (worth $500 million) in July 2025.
5. Real-World Asset (RWA) Tokenization – $11.7 billion worth of real-world assets are locked on Ethereum, increasing demand for transaction processing.

In-Depth Look

1. Protocol Upgrades & Decentralization (Mixed Effects)

What’s Happening: The Fusaka upgrade, expected in December, will double the amount of data Ethereum can process per block. This helps reduce congestion on Layer 2 solutions, which are secondary networks built to make Ethereum faster and cheaper. However, research shows that lowering the rewards for validators could hurt solo stakers (those who run their own nodes) by nearly 27%, while benefiting large staking pools like Lido.

Why It Matters: Lower fees and better scalability could attract more decentralized apps (dApps), which is good for Ethereum. But if too much control shifts to a few big validators, it could weaken Ethereum’s security and decentralization. If solo stakers drop below 2% of the network, it might raise red flags for investors.

2. Institutional Investment Through ETFs (Positive Outlook)

What’s Happening: Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) now hold nearly $25 billion in assets. For example, BlackRock’s ETHA ETF saw a huge $560 million inflow in one day during July. However, August brought $152 million in outflows due to regulatory changes by the SEC, showing that this market can be volatile.

Why It Matters: ETF activity now represents about 4.8% of Ethereum’s total market value. If inflows continue steadily, they could balance out selling pressure from smaller investors. But delays in regulatory approvals, like for options trading, could slow down growth.

3. Whale Activity & Network Usage

What’s Happening: Large investors, often called whales, bought 138,000 ETH in July 2025—the biggest weekly purchase since 2018. At the same time, active Ethereum addresses reached 18.7 million in the third quarter, even though retail wallets dropped by 22%.

Why It Matters: This suggests that experienced investors are preparing for price increases in the last quarter of the year. However, technical indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 55.51 show that Ethereum needs to stay above $4,100 to avoid sharp sell-offs. The 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $3,556 is a key level that separates long-term bullish and bearish trends.

Conclusion

Ethereum’s future depends on successfully rolling out upgrades without losing decentralization. Meanwhile, ETF investments and the growth of tokenized real-world assets help balance out risks related to staking changes. Technical signals are cautiously optimistic, with the price likely to stay between $4,100 and $4,800 until the full effects of the Fusaka upgrade are clear.

Big Question: Can Ethereum keep its 56% share of the real-world asset market against competitors like ZKsync and Solana while managing validator economics?

For more detailed insights, see the research here: Ethereum Staking Market Framework.

What are people saying about ETH?

The Ethereum community is divided: some investors are optimistic about reaching $10,000, while others warn of possible price drops. Here’s what’s happening right now:

1. Big institutions are buying more ETH than ever – Companies like BlackRock and Fidelity are investing billions.
2. Traders are debating a key $4,800 price level – Ethereum has hit this resistance four times, raising concerns about a potential pullback.
3. Excitement over the “Pectra upgrade” vs. profit-taking – Developers celebrate improved efficiency, while large holders are selling some of their ETH.

Deep Dive

1. @CryptoMobese: ETH Could Reach $5,500 Thanks to ETF Momentum Bullish

“Ethereum’s price is moving within an upward channel – breaking above $4,900 could lead to $5,500. ETF investments have been flowing in for 16 days straight!”
– @CryptoMobese (189K followers · 2.1M impressions · 2025-09-08 14:43 UTC)
View original post
What this means: Continuous ETF buying (over $1 billion weekly) might push Ethereum’s price higher, though some indicators suggest it could be temporarily overbought.

2. @mkbijaksana: Ethereum’s Failed Attempt to Break All-Time High Worries Traders Bearish

“ETH was rejected again at $4,950 – the daily chart shows signs of weakness. We’re closely watching the $4,200 support level.”
– @mkbijaksana (92K followers · 680K impressions · 2025-08-27 01:28 UTC)
View original post
What this means: Ethereum has tried and failed to break its highest price four times since August, making traders cautious. The $4,000-$4,200 range is seen as an important support zone.

3. @Rue1776: Pectra Upgrade Boosts Developer Confidence Bullish

“After the Pectra upgrade, Ethereum’s transaction speed hit 3,579 transactions per second – 10 times faster than before. SharpLink Gaming’s $200 million over-the-counter purchase shows strong institutional trust.”
– @Rue1776 (314K followers · 4.8M impressions · 2025-07-11 21:55 UTC)
View original post
What this means: Ethereum’s improved capacity supports large-scale projects, like real-world asset tokenization, which now has an $11.7 billion market. This strengthens Ethereum’s reputation as “ultra-sound money.”

Conclusion

Overall, the outlook for Ethereum is cautiously optimistic. Institutional buying and the Pectra upgrade’s improvements point toward a possible $10,000+ future. However, the repeated failure to break above $4,800 keeps some investors cautious. Keep an eye on the $4,100-$4,300 support zone—holding this level could restart the upward trend, while falling below might test $3,800. As one analyst put it: “ETH doesn’t stop… but sometimes it naps.”

What is the latest news about ETH?

Ethereum is gaining strong support from big financial players and technical improvements, even though its price has dipped recently. Here’s the latest update:

1. Institutional DeFi Access (October 9, 2025) – Aave and Blockdaemon team up to open over $70 billion in liquidity for institutions.
2. On-Chain Growth (October 9, 2025) – Ethereum reaches a new level with record tokenization of real-world assets and steady inflows into stable ETFs.
3. Fusaka Upgrade Confirmed (September 20, 2025) – A major upgrade aimed at improving scalability is scheduled for December 3, 2025.

In-Depth Look

1. Institutional DeFi Access (October 9, 2025)

What happened:
Blockdaemon, a top provider for institutional staking, has integrated Aave’s decentralized finance (DeFi) markets into its Earn Stack platform. This means institutions can now use staked assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum (ETH), and stablecoins to earn yield by placing them into Aave Vaults. This partnership unlocks access to more than $70 billion in liquidity. It also targets Horizon’s $200 million real-world asset (RWA) market, allowing borrowing against tokenized assets such as USTB and JTRSY.

Why it matters:
This development is positive for Ethereum’s role in DeFi because it connects traditional finance with decentralized systems. Institutions can earn returns without taking custody risks, which could increase demand for ETH as collateral. However, since this involves centralized services like Blockdaemon, it may raise concerns about how decentralized the system really is.
(Source: Crypto.News)

2. On-Chain Growth (October 9, 2025)

What happened:
Since July, Ethereum has averaged 9.5 million internal contract calls daily. This surge is driven by tokenization of real-world assets, which has grown to $11.71 billion—a 680% increase year-to-date—and steady inflows into spot ETFs. BlackRock’s BUIDL fund alone holds $2.4 billion in tokenized assets on Ethereum. Meanwhile, ETH’s price is facing resistance near $4,800, with support levels between $4,100 and $4,250.

Why it matters:
The consistent on-chain activity shows real, organic growth rather than just speculation. The rise in real-world asset adoption and institutional investments helps balance out some of the technical challenges Ethereum faces. However, competitors like Solana, which has had no outages in over a year, could challenge Ethereum’s position in the long run.
(Source: Cointelegraph)

3. Fusaka Upgrade Confirmed (September 20, 2025)

What happened:
Ethereum developers have finalized the Fusaka upgrade, set for December 3, 2025, after successful testing on networks like Holesky, Sepolia, and Hoodi. This upgrade introduces PeerDAS technology, which will double the capacity for data blobs and aims to reach over 12,000 transactions per second (TPS) by 2026.

Why it matters:
Fusaka is expected to lower fees on Layer 2 solutions and improve Ethereum’s scalability, helping to ease network congestion. However, some delays in testing due to bugs and the need for follow-up upgrades add some risk to the timeline and execution.
(Source: Bitcoinist)

Conclusion

Ethereum is positioned for renewed growth thanks to strong institutional adoption, expanding real-world asset use, and upcoming scalability improvements with Fusaka. Although short-term price movements remain volatile (down 3.8% over the past week), the network’s fundamentals are more robust than ever. The big question is whether Fusaka’s technical advancements will firmly establish ETH as the foundation for global tokenized finance.

What is expected in the development of ETH?

Ethereum’s development is moving forward with these key updates:

1. Fusaka Mainnet Upgrade (December 3, 2025) – Doubles data capacity for Layer 2 solutions using PeerDAS technology.
2. zkEVM Integration (Late 2025 to Mid 2026) – Enables instant, zero-knowledge verified transactions on Ethereum’s main network.
3. Lean Ethereum Plan (2026-2035) – Focuses on quantum-resistant security and reaching 10,000 transactions per second (TPS).

Deep Dive

1. Fusaka Mainnet Upgrade (December 3, 2025)

Overview
The Fusaka upgrade introduces Peer Data Availability Sampling (PeerDAS), which increases Ethereum’s ability to handle data for Layer 2 rollups—these are solutions that help scale Ethereum by processing transactions off the main chain. The number of “blobs” (data units) per block will increase from 6 to 14 in phases. This aims to lower fees on Layer 2 and support around 12,000 transactions per second (CryptoGucci).

What this means
This is good news for Ethereum (ETH) because it improves scalability for decentralized apps (dApps) and rollups like Arbitrum and Base. More users and liquidity could be attracted as a result. However, validators (the network participants who confirm transactions) may face more workload due to the increased data.

2. zkEVM Layer 1 Integration (Late 2025 to Mid 2026)

Overview
Ethereum plans to add native support for zkEVM, a technology that uses zero-knowledge proofs to verify transactions quickly and securely. The goal is to validate 99% of blocks in under 10 seconds and reduce the cost of zero-knowledge proofs by 80% (Binance Square).

What this means
This upgrade is positive for ETH because it reduces dependence on third-party zero-knowledge rollups, enhances privacy, and could make Ethereum more attractive to institutions. The challenge lies in making sure proof generation remains decentralized and can run efficiently on everyday consumer devices.

3. Lean Ethereum Plan (2026-2035)

Overview
This long-term plan aims to make Ethereum quantum-resistant (secure against future quantum computers), achieve 10,000 TPS on the main network, and maintain 100% uptime. Important upgrades include simplifying node operation to work on mobile devices and using Verkle trees to reduce storage requirements (CoinMarketCap).

What this means
This is a neutral outlook for the long term. While the goals are ambitious, developing quantum resistance and extreme scalability is technically challenging. If successful, Ethereum could solidify its role as the foundation of Web3. However, delays might give competitors an edge.

Conclusion

Ethereum’s roadmap focuses on improving scalability (Fusaka), enhancing zero-knowledge proof efficiency (zkEVM), and preparing for future security and performance needs (Lean Ethereum Plan). Near-term upgrades are crucial for execution, while long-term goals show Ethereum’s commitment to adapting and evolving. It will be interesting to see how Layer 2 ecosystems like Arbitrum grow as Ethereum’s base layer becomes more powerful.

What updates are there in the ETH code base?

Ethereum’s software received major updates in 2025, focusing on making the network faster, easier to use, and better for staking (locking up ETH to help secure the network).

1. Pectra Upgrade (May 7, 2025) – Improved wallets, increased limits for validators, and made Layer-2 solutions more efficient.
2. Nethermind Client Update (September 2, 2025) – Boosted node performance and introduced new data management features.
3. Fusaka Testnet Prep (September 19, 2025) – Prepared the network for bigger data capacity to support faster Layer-2 scaling.

Deep Dive

1. Pectra Upgrade (May 7, 2025)

What happened: The Pectra upgrade combined two important updates to Ethereum’s core software, adding 11 Ethereum Improvement Proposals (EIPs). These changes improve how wallets work, increase the amount of ETH validators can stake, and expand data capacity for Layer-2 solutions.

• EIP-7702: Lets regular wallets temporarily act like smart contracts, allowing users to bundle multiple transactions together and have others pay the transaction fees.
• EIP-7251: Raises the maximum ETH a validator can stake from 32 ETH to 2,048 ETH, making it easier for big investors and institutions to participate.
• EIP-7691: Doubles the amount of data (called “blobs”) that can be included in each block, which cuts Layer-2 transaction fees by about 40% after the upgrade (Source).

Why it matters: These improvements make Ethereum easier to use, attract larger validators, and reduce costs for users relying on Layer-2 scaling solutions, which is good news for the network’s growth.

2. Nethermind Client Update (September 2, 2025)

What happened: The Nethermind team released version 1.33.0 of their Ethereum client software, which runs nodes that help keep the network secure and up-to-date.

• Introduced an experimental “pruning” feature that reduces the amount of disk space nodes need by about 25%.
• Increased the speed of OP Stack connections by 15%, which is important for Layer-2 chains like Base (Source).

Why it matters: While this update doesn’t directly impact users, it helps node operators manage Ethereum’s growing data more efficiently, supporting the network’s long-term health.

3. Fusaka Testnet Prep (September 19, 2025)

What happened: Developers finalized plans for the Fusaka testnet, a key step before launching a major upgrade expected on December 3, 2025.

• PeerDAS (EIP-7594): Allows nodes to store only one-eighth of the total data, enabling Layer-2 solutions to process transactions up to 8 times faster.
• Blob capacity: The number of data blobs per block will increase from 6 to 14 after activation (Source).

Why it matters: This upgrade is great for Ethereum’s ability to scale and handle more transactions, but it may require more powerful hardware for nodes, which could lead to fewer people running nodes and increase centralization risks.

Conclusion

Ethereum’s 2025 upgrades focus on making the network more scalable and resilient. With Layer-2 transactions expected to reach 12,000 per second by 2026, these changes could strengthen Ethereum’s position as the leading smart contract platform.

Why did the price of ETH fall?

Ethereum (ETH) dropped 3.49% to $4,369.07 over the past 24 hours, underperforming the overall crypto market, which fell 1.92%. The main reasons behind this decline are:

1. Short-seller attack on BitMine – Kerrisdale Capital took a short position against BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR), raising concerns about its exposure to Ethereum.
2. $940 million ETH options expiration – Traders are preparing for increased price swings as the "max pain" price of $4,430 approaches.
3. Outflows from ETH ETFs – Spot Ethereum ETFs experienced $69.1 million in net withdrawals on October 9, weakening buying momentum.

Deep Dive

1. Short-Seller Attack on ETH-Linked Stock (Negative Impact)

What happened:
BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR), which holds 2.83 million ETH valued at around $12 billion, saw its stock drop 5% after Kerrisdale Capital announced a short position. Kerrisdale criticized BitMine’s business model as outdated. This has made investors worry that BitMine might have to sell Ethereum or that institutional interest in ETH-related investments could decline.

Why it matters:
The drop in BMNR’s stock increases doubts about investment options tied to Ethereum. This could push investors toward Ethereum ETFs or buying ETH directly, adding downward pressure on Ethereum’s price, especially when the broader market is weak.

What to watch:
Whether BMNR’s stock recovers or if there are further sales of Ethereum by the company.

2. $940 Million ETH Options Expiry (Mixed Impact)

What happened:
On October 10, $940 million worth of Ethereum options contracts expired. The "max pain" price—the price at which the most options expire worthless—is $4,430. Before expiration, Ethereum traded at $4,358, just below this level, which may encourage market makers to keep prices suppressed.

Why it matters:
Traders might sell Ethereum to hedge their positions, causing short-term price swings. However, if Ethereum closes above $4,430 after the options expire, it could trigger a price rebound as bearish bets are closed out.

What to watch:
Ethereum’s price movement around the $4,430 mark and changes in open interest after the options expire.

3. Spot ETH ETF Outflows (Negative Impact)

What happened:
U.S.-based Ethereum ETFs saw $69.1 million in net outflows on October 9, ending a four-day streak of inflows. BlackRock’s ETHA ETF led the withdrawals with $63.1 million taken out, indicating that institutional investors may be taking profits.

Why it matters:
Outflows from ETFs reduce buying pressure and suggest weakening confidence in Ethereum’s near-term outlook. Since Ethereum ETFs hold nearly $25 billion in assets, continued outflows could extend the downward trend.

What to watch:
Daily ETF flow reports from sources like FarsideUK and updates on Grayscale’s Ethereum holdings.

Conclusion

Ethereum’s recent price drop is driven by three main bearish factors: institutional doubts highlighted by the BMNR short-sell, volatility linked to the large options expiration, and significant ETF outflows. While technical support around $4,296 (the 50% Fibonacci retracement level) may provide some stability, traders remain cautious as broader economic factors come into play.

Key point to watch: Can Ethereum climb back above $4,430 after the options expire to counteract bearish pressures? Keep an eye on ETF flows and BitMine’s next moves for clearer direction.