What could affect the price of ONDO?

ONDO balances the momentum of tokenized assets with potential risks from increased supply.

1. ETF Approval Could Boost Demand – 21Shares’ spot ONDO ETF filing might open the door for institutional investors.
2. Token Unlock Schedule – About 1.94 billion ONDO tokens (worth roughly $1.7 billion) will unlock by January 2026, which could increase supply pressure.
3. Growing Real-World Asset (RWA) Use – Partnerships with Ripple, JPMorgan, and QNB are expanding ONDO’s practical applications.

In-Depth Look

1. Regulatory and Institutional Interest (Positive Outlook)

Overview:
21Shares has filed for a spot ONDO ETF with the SEC, aiming to provide a regulated way for investors to access ONDO, which plays a key role in tokenizing real-world assets. If approved, this ETF could attract significant institutional investment, similar to what happened with Bitcoin ETFs. Coinbase is set to be the custodian, adding credibility. Also, Ondo’s political connections, including $2.1 million in GOP PAC donations, might help smooth regulatory approval.

What this means:
ETF approval would confirm ONDO’s value and likely bring in traditional financial (TradFi) capital. Past examples like Bitcoin ETFs show this can lead to price increases. However, delays or rejection by the SEC could slow down growth.

2. Token Unlocks and Supply Impact (Potential Downside)

Overview:
Starting January 2026, about 1.94 billion ONDO tokens (around 61% of the circulating supply) will become available. Private investors hold 12.9% of the supply, and core contributors hold 33%, with multi-year vesting schedules. Early unlocks could lead to selling pressure if demand doesn’t keep up.

What this means:
In the short term, early investors, such as those who bought through CoinList, might sell their tokens, which could push prices down. However, the gradual unlocking process is designed to align long-term interests and reduce the risk of sudden sell-offs.

3. Expansion of Real-World Asset Use and Partnerships (Positive Outlook)

Overview:
Ondo’s tokenized Treasury products (OUSG, USDY) now handle about $3 billion daily through JPMorgan’s blockchain network. Recent partnerships include:

• Integration with Ripple for XRP Ledger-based Treasuries.
• Listing ONDO on Robinhood, making it accessible to U.S. retail investors.

What this means:
The growing adoption of real-world asset tokenization, expected to reach $53 billion by 2025, positions ONDO as a key player connecting traditional finance and decentralized finance (DeFi). This increases demand for ONDO’s governance and fee-sharing features.

Conclusion

ONDO’s price will likely depend on progress with the ETF approval balancing out the effects of token unlocks, while expanding real-world asset adoption supports long-term growth. Technical indicators show the token is currently oversold (RSI: 35.58), and breaking above $1.07 (the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level) could signal a recovery. Will the SEC’s approval speed up ONDO’s vision of “Wall Street 2.0,” or will increased token supply weigh it down? Keep an eye on ETF developments and token unlock schedules.

What are people saying about ONDO?

The ONDO community is divided between optimism for a price breakout and concerns about a possible pullback. Here’s a quick summary of the current discussion:

1. ETF excitement – 21Shares’ recent filing has pushed price targets up to $1.94 🚀
2. Technical tension – Buyers are defending support at $0.88, while sellers are watching for a breakdown below that level 📉
3. Whale activity – Large investors are accumulating ONDO, suggesting confidence in its long-term potential 🐋

Deep Dive

1. Bullish Flag Pattern Points to $2 Breakout

@VipRoseTr notes:
"ONDO is holding above its 50-day moving average (MA50) in a bullish flag pattern, targeting $1.14, then $1.50, and eventually $2.00."
This is positive because the MA50 often indicates strong institutional buying. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 66, which suggests the price might be a bit overextended and due for a pause or pullback.
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2. Risk of Testing $0.80 Support Level

@CryptoPulse_CRU warns:
"Maintaining support between $0.84 and $0.88 is crucial. If ONDO falls below this range, it could drop below $0.80, where liquidity is thin."
This is a bearish signal because the price is moving within a descending channel, showing weakening momentum. The turnover ratio of 6.46% indicates low trading volume, which could make price drops more severe.
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3. ONDO Leads in Real-World Asset Tokenization

@wauwda highlights:
"Ondo has surpassed BlackRock in tokenized treasury total value locked (TVL), signaling faster institutional adoption."
This is a strong fundamental positive. Real-world asset (RWA) tokenization on the Solana blockchain has grown 260% year-to-date, with ONDO holding $656 million in TVL, making it a leader in this emerging sector.
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Conclusion

Opinions on ONDO are mixed. On one hand, technical indicators suggest caution, especially around the $0.88-$0.90 support zone. On the other hand, fundamental developments like the 21Shares ETF filing and strong growth in real-world asset tokenization provide solid reasons for optimism. According to CCN, the ETF filing could boost ONDO’s price by up to 75%.

Keep an eye on the SEC’s response to the 21Shares filing expected by mid-October. Also, watch for ONDO’s price to close above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $0.891 on an hourly basis, which could signal the next move.

What is the latest news about ONDO?

Ondo is connecting traditional Wall Street finance with decentralized finance (DeFi) by bringing real-world assets onto the blockchain. Here are the latest updates:

1. QNB Adopts JPMorgan’s Blockchain (September 29, 2025) – Ondo is now part of Qatar National Bank’s around-the-clock USD payment system.
2. Ripple Partnership for Treasuries (September 27, 2025) – Tokenized U.S. Treasuries launched on the XRP Ledger through Ondo.
3. SPYON ETF Listed on WEEX (September 28, 2025) – Ondo’s S&P 500 token is now available on a major exchange.

Deep Dive

1. QNB Adopts JPMorgan’s Blockchain (September 29, 2025)

Overview
Qatar National Bank (QNB) has adopted JPMorgan’s Kinexys blockchain technology to enable 24/7 corporate payments in U.S. dollars. This replaces older systems with much faster, nearly instant settlements. Ondo Finance’s technology supports cross-chain transactions, including payments between dollars and euros. The platform handles about $3 billion daily, with potential to increase crypto liquidity as well.

What this means
This is a positive development for ONDO. Institutional use of Ondo’s blockchain solutions strengthens its position as a bridge between traditional finance (TradFi) and decentralized finance (DeFi). Faster settlements could increase demand for Ondo’s real-world asset (RWA) products like USDY, which is now accessible in 173 countries through Alchemy Pay. (Bloomberg)

2. Ripple Partnership for Treasuries (September 27, 2025)

Overview
Ripple has partnered with Ondo to tokenize short-term U.S. Treasuries (OUSG) on the XRP Ledger, using Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin. This partnership aims to bring institutional DeFi solutions to the XRP Ledger, making it a hub for compliant asset tokenization.

What this means
This is a neutral to positive sign for ONDO. It expands Ondo’s reach into institutional markets but also increases competition with Ethereum in the tokenization of real-world assets. The success of this partnership depends on how quickly banks and asset managers adopt the XRP Ledger, which could take several quarters. (CoinGape)

3. SPYON ETF Listed on WEEX (September 28, 2025)

Overview
WEEX Exchange has listed SPYON, Ondo’s tokenized S&P 500 ETF. This allows investors to access traditional stock market exposure through DeFi. The token runs on Ondo’s Global Markets platform, combining the stability of ETFs with the ability to trade 24/7 on the blockchain.

What this means
This is a positive development for ONDO as it broadens its real-world asset offerings beyond Treasuries. It appeals to both retail and institutional investors. Increased trading volume in SPYON could also enhance ONDO’s value as a governance token. (WEEX)

Conclusion

Ondo’s recent partnerships with banks, integration with Ripple, and expansion into ETFs show growing institutional confidence in its real-world asset platform. While regulatory challenges remain, Ondo’s focus on compliant, yield-generating assets positions it as a key link between traditional finance and crypto. The big question is whether ONDO’s tokenized products can outperform competitors like BlackRock’s BUIDL in attracting institutional investment.

What is expected in the development of ONDO?

Ondo’s roadmap is focused on growing institutional use and expanding real-world asset (RWA) tokenization.

1. Global Markets Launch (Q4 2025) – A platform for non-U.S. traders to access tokenized U.S. stocks and ETFs.
2. ETF Approval Process (2026) – SEC review of 21Shares’ spot ONDO ETF proposal.
3. Ondo Chain Upgrades (2026) – Improved compliance features to support enterprise adoption.
4. Ecosystem Incentives (2026) – $250 million Catalyst Fund to support innovation in RWA projects.

In-Depth Look

1. Global Markets Launch (Q4 2025)

What’s happening: Ondo plans to launch its Global Markets platform, allowing users outside the U.S. to trade tokenized U.S. stocks and ETFs. This will be done through partnerships with BNB Chain, Bitget, and LayerZero. By July 2025, the Global Markets Alliance had grown to over 25 members (Ondo Finance). The goal is to combine traditional finance liquidity with the accessibility of decentralized finance (DeFi).
Why it matters: This move could position Ondo as a leader in compliant real-world asset solutions, potentially increasing demand for USDY and OUSG tokens. However, regulatory challenges and competition from established platforms remain risks.

2. ETF Approval Process (2026)

What’s happening: In July 2025, 21Shares filed for a spot ONDO ETF, seeking approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The ETF would track ONDO’s price using the CME CF Reference Rate. The SEC’s review is expected to continue into 2026, focusing on custody (handled by Coinbase) and market stability (CoinDesk).
Why it matters: If approved, this ETF could validate ONDO’s use in traditional finance, attracting more institutional investors. On the other hand, delays or rejection could slow momentum, given the SEC’s cautious approach to altcoin ETFs.

3. Ondo Chain Upgrades (2026)

What’s happening: Ondo Chain, launched in February 2025 as a blockchain designed for institutional real-world assets, plans upgrades including omnichain bridging and adding more validators. Recent acquisitions like Oasis Pro and Strangelove Labs aim to improve compliance and cross-chain compatibility (Bitso Blog).
Why it matters: These upgrades could make Ondo Chain more attractive to enterprises, supporting growth. However, successful implementation depends on ongoing technical development.

4. Ecosystem Incentives (2026)

What’s happening: The $250 million Ondo Catalyst Fund, supported by Pantera Capital, will invest in real-world asset projects starting in 2026. This follows efforts in July 2025 to expand tokenized Treasury markets (CoinDesk).
Why it matters: This fund could drive long-term growth in the Ondo ecosystem. However, the planned release of 6.5 billion ONDO tokens by 2028 might put downward pressure on prices if demand doesn’t keep pace.

Conclusion

Ondo’s roadmap aims to connect traditional finance and decentralized finance through regulated products like tokenized securities and ETFs. The biggest challenges will come from regulatory approval and market adoption. The key question is whether the SEC’s approach to real-world assets will help or slow Ondo’s progress in gaining institutional acceptance.

What updates are there in the ONDO code base?

Ondo’s technology is rapidly advancing to support secure, institution-level asset tokenization and seamless interaction across different blockchain networks.

1. Ondo Chain Launch (February 6, 2025) – A new Layer 1 blockchain designed for compliant tokenization of real-world assets (RWA).
2. Strangelove Acquisition (July 14, 2025) – Ondo acquired Strangelove Labs to boost its engineering team and improve cross-chain infrastructure.
3. GitHub Activity Surge (July 2025) – Over 40% increase in code updates focused on compliance and bridging assets across blockchains.

Deep Dive

1. Ondo Chain Launch (February 6, 2025)

Overview: Ondo Chain is a new Layer 1 blockchain built to connect regulated traditional finance systems (like JPMorgan’s Kinexys) with public blockchains such as Ethereum.

Developed using Cosmos SDK and Cosmos EVM, it combines Ethereum’s large developer community with tools designed for institutional compliance. Key features include fast asset minting, secure cross-chain settlements using Chainlink oracles, and validator nodes run by regulated financial institutions.

What this means: This is positive for ONDO because it positions the platform as a hybrid hub that supports compliant asset tokenization. It appeals to institutions that need to follow regulations while still benefiting from decentralized finance (DeFi) capabilities. (Source)

2. Strangelove Acquisition (July 14, 2025)

Overview: Ondo acquired Strangelove Labs, a blockchain infrastructure company, to speed up development of its real-world asset platform.

This acquisition brings expertise in interoperability protocols like Cosmos IBC and custom blockchain deployments. The former CEO of Strangelove now leads Ondo’s product team, focusing on issuing assets across multiple blockchains.

What this means: This is a neutral-to-positive development for ONDO. It strengthens Ondo’s technical capabilities but comes with some risks related to integrating new teams and technology. The goal is to make cross-chain transfers of tokenized assets like USDY and OUSG smoother. (Source)

3. GitHub Activity Surge (July 2025)

Overview: Ondo’s GitHub repositories saw a more than 40% increase in code commits in July 2025, according to Cryptonewsland.

Key focus areas included:

• Auditing smart contracts for USDY, a treasury-backed token
• Adding compliance features like KYC (Know Your Customer) for OUSG
• Developing cross-chain bridges for blockchains like Solana and XRP Ledger

What this means: This is a positive sign for ONDO because increased developer activity suggests faster rollout of new products, especially tokenized stocks and ETFs under their Global Markets initiative.

Conclusion

Ondo’s ongoing technology updates show a clear strategy to lead in institutional real-world asset tokenization using hybrid blockchain infrastructure. Developments like Ondo Chain and enhanced cross-chain bridges address important challenges in connecting traditional finance with decentralized finance. With strong developer momentum and growing regulatory partnerships, Ondo is well-positioned to become a key player in the tokenized securities market.