What could affect the price of ONDO?

Ondo’s price is currently caught between growing interest in tokenized real-world assets (RWA) and the risks from new tokens entering the market.

1. Token Unlocks – 85% of Ondo’s tokens are still locked, but as they unlock, prices could drop if demand doesn’t keep up (short-term bearish).
2. RWA Growth – Partnerships like STBL’s $50 million USST stablecoin minting increase Ondo’s usefulness (long-term bullish).
3. Regulatory Changes – Potential approval of an SEC-backed ETF could boost demand, but crackdowns on synthetic assets create uncertainty (mixed impact).

Deep Dive

1. Token Unlock Schedule (Short-Term Pressure)

Most of Ondo’s 10 billion token supply (over 85%) is locked up. These tokens will gradually unlock for private investors (who hold about 12.9%) and core team members (33%) starting one year after launch. Recently, about 179 million tokens from CoinList buyers became available, adding selling pressure.

This means that while the long-term outlook is positive because it aligns incentives, the near-term unlocks—like 24% of Ecosystem Growth tokens released at launch—could flood the market if demand doesn’t grow fast enough. This helped push Ondo’s price down by 25% over the past month to around $0.75 (Ondo Foundation).

2. Growth in Real-World Assets & Partnerships (Positive Outlook)

Ondo’s USDY token, which represents tokenized U.S. Treasury securities, is now being used as collateral for STBL’s $50 million USST stablecoin. Additionally, Grayscale has added Ondo to its DeFi Fund with a 19.1% weighting. Ondo Chain is also gaining traction among institutional investors, bridging traditional finance and decentralized finance.

These partnerships expand Ondo’s real-world use cases, which should increase demand. For example, STBL’s USST stablecoin could bring more institutional money into USDY, boosting fee income and rewards for staking ONDO tokens (Yahoo Finance).

3. Regulatory and ETF Developments (Uncertain Impact)

21Shares has filed to launch an Ondo ETF by July 2025, which could attract more institutional investors. However, regulators like the SEC in the U.S. and authorities in the EU are closely watching synthetic assets, which Ondo’s tokenized stocks and ETFs depend on.

If approved, the ETF could bring inflows similar to what Bitcoin ETFs have seen. But regulatory challenges, such as Europe’s MiFID rules on derivatives, might limit how widely these products can be offered. Ondo’s recent acquisition of Oasis Pro, which is registered with the SEC, helps reduce some regulatory risks (NewsBTC).

Conclusion

Ondo’s price will depend on whether the growth in tokenized real-world assets can outpace the increase in token supply and navigate regulatory hurdles. In the short term, token unlocks and overall market caution (crypto fear index at 35) may limit gains. However, growing institutional interest in tokenized Treasuries—a market expected to reach $4.2 billion by 2025—offers strong long-term potential.

Watch: Will Ondo’s October 10 partnership with STBL help push USDY’s trading volume beyond its current $1.39 billion total value locked (TVL)?

What are people saying about ONDO?

The ONDO community is actively discussing chart patterns and excitement around ETFs, while large investors quietly keep buying. Here’s what’s happening now:

1. Traders are watching for a breakout above $0.80 after 21Shares filed for an ETF, boosting optimism
2. Interest in "real yield" is growing thanks to partnerships between BlackRock, JPMorgan, and real-world assets (RWA)
3. Whales have added 17.94 million ONDO amid a 176% spike in coins leaving exchanges

Deep Dive

1. @JohncyCrypto: Classic bullish flag points to $2.80 target 🚀 bullish

"ONDO is repeating its 2024 pattern – if it holds above $1.14, we’re on track for $1.50+"
– @JohncyCrypto (89.2K followers · 124K impressions · 2025-08-10 03:15 UTC)
View original post
What this means: This is a positive sign for ONDO. Past price trends suggest a similar rally could happen again, but it’s important that buying volume stays strong above $1.14 to confirm this move.

2. @AltCryptoGems: Bearish wedge pattern threatens $0.75 support 🚨 bearish

"Failed breakout plus negative Chaikin Money Flow (-0.05) signals strong selling. Watching $0.92 as a critical level"
– @AltCryptoGems (217K followers · 387K impressions · 2025-09-13 14:22 UTC)
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What this means: This is a warning sign for ONDO. The Chaikin Money Flow indicator shows that big investors might be selling, but the $0.75–$0.78 range has historically been a buying zone for those looking to buy dips.

3. @glassnode: Whales move 17.94M ONDO to cold storage 🐋 mixed

17.94 million ONDO transferred to offline wallets in 72 hours – the biggest accumulation since June
– @glassnode (1.2M followers · 2.8M impressions · 2025-07-24 08:45 UTC)
View original post
What this means: This is a mixed signal. Taking coins off exchanges can reduce selling pressure and support prices, but when whales hold large amounts, it can also lead to bigger price swings if they decide to sell.

Conclusion

The outlook for ONDO is mixed. Technical charts show some bearish signs, but strong fundamentals like real-world asset partnerships and whale buying add positive momentum. Traders are closely watching the $0.80–$0.83 resistance zone. The 21Shares ETF decision, expected by late Q4 2025, could significantly impact institutional interest. Keep an eye on the daily RSI (currently 45); if it rises above 50 and stays there, it often signals a potential rally of 30% or more.

What is the latest news about ONDO?

Ondo is making strategic moves through partnerships and regulatory approvals while growing its presence in real-world assets (RWA). Here are the key updates:

1. STBL Collateralizes $50M USST with USDY (October 10, 2025) – Ondo’s tokenized U.S. Treasuries back a new stablecoin, increasing the use of real-world assets in crypto.
2. Grayscale Adds ONDO to Its DeFi Fund (October 9, 2025) – Institutional interest rises as ONDO joins a major crypto investment fund.
3. Ondo Obtains SEC-Registered Licenses (October 7, 2025) – Through acquiring Oasis Pro, Ondo can now offer regulated trading of tokenized securities.

Deep Dive

1. STBL Collateralizes $50M USST with USDY (October 10, 2025)

Overview:
STBL.com will issue up to $50 million of its USST stablecoin using Ondo’s USDY token as collateral. USDY is a yield-generating token backed by U.S. Treasury bonds, managed under strict regulatory standards.

What this means:
This partnership is a positive sign for ONDO because it confirms USDY’s value in supporting stablecoins, which are cryptocurrencies designed to maintain a stable value. It could increase demand for Ondo’s real-world asset products and strengthens Ondo’s role in connecting traditional finance yields with blockchain technology.
(Yahoo Finance)

2. Grayscale Adds ONDO to Its DeFi Fund (October 9, 2025)

Overview:
Grayscale, a large digital asset manager, updated its DeFi Fund by replacing MakerDAO with ONDO, which now makes up 19.1% of the fund. This change reflects growing interest from institutional investors in protocols focused on real-world assets.

What this means:
Being included in Grayscale’s fund gives ONDO exposure to more investors and boosts its credibility as a leader in tokenized assets. However, the broader altcoin market has seen a recent price drop of 19% in a week, which might limit short-term gains.
(Crypto.news)

3. Ondo Obtains SEC-Registered Licenses (October 7, 2025)

Overview:
Ondo acquired Oasis Pro, which comes with licenses registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), including broker-dealer, alternative trading system (ATS), and transfer agent licenses. These licenses allow Ondo to legally issue and trade tokenized securities such as stocks and bonds.

What this means:
This is a major regulatory achievement that positions Ondo to meet institutional demand for tokenized real-world assets. The licenses enable Ondo to work directly with traditional financial institutions, although regulatory oversight of tokenized equities remains a challenge.
(NewsBTC)

Conclusion

Ondo’s recent developments—supporting stablecoins with real-world assets, gaining institutional investment, and expanding regulatory compliance—show its commitment to bridging traditional finance and decentralized finance (DeFi). While regulatory challenges exist, Ondo’s focus on compliance could help it become a key player in the growing market for tokenized assets.

Will Ondo’s regulatory advantages help it lead the future of tokenized finance?

What is expected in the development of ONDO?

Ondo’s roadmap is focused on growing its real-world asset (RWA) tokenization platform through several key projects:

1. Global Markets Launch (Q4 2025) – Bringing tokenized stocks and ETFs onto the blockchain.
2. USDY Expansion to Aptos/Mantra (2026) – Making its yield-generating stablecoin available on more networks.
3. Second Wave of Ondo Points (Q4 2025) – Offering partner-driven rewards to encourage ecosystem participation.
4. Ondo Chain Development (2026) – Building a secure, institutional-grade blockchain for RWAs.

In-Depth Look

1. Global Markets Launch (Q4 2025)

What’s happening: Ondo plans to introduce tokenized versions of U.S. stocks and ETFs, expanding beyond its current $1.38 billion in tokenized government bonds. Announced in July 2025 as “Ondo Stocks are coming,” this effort aims to combine the liquidity of traditional finance with the around-the-clock access of blockchain technology. The Global Markets Alliance, which includes over 25 partners like BNB Chain and Bitget, will help ensure these assets work smoothly across different blockchains.

Why it matters: This move could make ONDO a key link between traditional finance and decentralized finance (DeFi), attracting institutional investors. However, regulatory challenges remain, especially since the SEC has been closely watching tokenized equity products, which could affect how quickly this launch happens.

2. USDY Expansion to Aptos/Mantra (2026)

What’s happening: USDY, Ondo’s stablecoin that earns yield backed by short-term U.S. Treasuries, will be available on the Aptos and Mantra blockchains in addition to Ethereum, Solana, and Sei. This follows its recent integration with Alchemy Pay, enabling easy conversion between fiat currencies and USDY in 173 countries.

Why it matters: Expanding USDY to more blockchains can increase its use in DeFi applications, potentially raising demand for ONDO’s governance token. On the downside, competition from big players like BlackRock’s BUIDL and Franklin Templeton’s FOBXX stablecoins could limit USDY’s growth.

3. Second Wave of Ondo Points (Q4 2025)

What’s happening: Building on the success of the first Ondo Points program, Ondo will partner with new projects to offer rewards for activities like providing liquidity, voting in governance, and integrating with other protocols.

Why it matters: This initiative could boost user engagement and ecosystem growth. Its success will depend on the quality of partners involved. For example, the first wave helped ONDO’s total value locked (TVL) grow by 1.5 times in 2025, thanks to collaborations with Flux Finance and USDY minting.

4. Ondo Chain Development (2026)

What’s happening: Ondo Chain, a permissioned Layer 1 blockchain designed for tokenizing real-world assets, will be upgraded to support enterprise-level Ethereum compatibility (like JPMorgan’s Onyx platform) and enable seamless cross-chain settlements. The chain completed its first institutional delivery-versus-payment (DvP) transaction in August 2025.

Why it matters: These upgrades make Ondo Chain more attractive to institutional investors by ensuring compliance and interoperability. However, the technical complexity of these improvements means development could take longer than expected, especially after integrating new infrastructure from Strangelove Labs.

Conclusion

Ondo’s roadmap is clearly aimed at driving institutional adoption of real-world assets through regulated tokenized stocks, expanding cross-chain yield products like USDY, and building compliant blockchain infrastructure. While regulatory hurdles and competition remain challenges, Ondo’s partnerships with major traditional finance firms and its focus on innovation position ONDO as a leading hybrid between DeFi and traditional finance.

The big question: Can Ondo’s emphasis on compliance and interoperability help it outpace competitors in the growing $53 billion+ real-world asset market?

What updates are there in the ONDO code base?

Ondo’s recent software updates focus on building infrastructure for real-world assets (RWAs) and improving cross-chain compatibility.

1. RWA Infrastructure Growth (July 2025) – GitHub activity increased by 40%, focusing on tokenized Treasury products and compliance tools.
2. Ondo Chain Enhancements (August 2025) – Added Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) support to the Cosmos SDK-based chain, helping connect traditional finance (TradFi) and decentralized finance (DeFi).
3. Smart Contract Security (July 2025) – Completed thorough audits to strengthen security for institutional asset tokenization.

Deep Dive

1. RWA Infrastructure Growth (July 2025)

Overview: In July 2025, Ondo’s development activity on GitHub jumped by over 40%. This was mainly driven by efforts to expand tokenized Treasury products and build compliance tools for institutional clients.

The team focused on reviewing smart contracts and adding regulatory safeguards, which is important since Ondo manages $1.39 billion in tokenized assets, including U.S. Treasuries.

What this means: This is positive news for ONDO because it reinforces the platform’s role as a compliant leader in tokenizing real-world assets. This could attract more institutions looking for on-chain yield opportunities and boost the use of products like USDY and OUSG.
(Source)

2. Ondo Chain Enhancements (August 2025)

Overview: Ondo Chain, built on the Cosmos SDK, added compatibility with the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM). This upgrade makes it easier to connect permissioned blockchains (like JPMorgan’s network) with public blockchain networks.

The update supports secure, cross-chain transactions and compliance tools, enabling smooth transfers of tokenized stocks and bonds.

What this means: This is a neutral to positive development for ONDO. It opens the door for more developers and helps bridge traditional finance with DeFi. However, the real impact depends on how many enterprise partners start using the platform. Key metrics to watch include cross-chain transaction volumes.
(Source)

3. Smart Contract Security (July 2025)

Overview: In July, Ondo completed detailed security audits for Flux Finance, its lending protocol. These audits ensure that tokenized securities used as collateral are protected.

This focus on security aligns with Ondo’s acquisition of Oasis Pro, an SEC-registered broker-dealer, which helps the platform issue compliant assets.

What this means: This is good news for ONDO because stronger security reduces risks and builds trust with institutional investors. A secure platform is essential as Ondo manages $1.39 billion in total value locked (TVL).
(Source)

Conclusion

Ondo’s recent code updates show a clear strategy to grow in regulated, institutional real-world asset markets. By focusing on audited smart contracts, cross-chain compatibility, and compliance-ready infrastructure, Ondo is positioning itself as a bridge between traditional finance and DeFi. However, its success will depend on attracting enterprise users and navigating regulatory requirements.

How might Ondo’s technical upgrades influence its competition with platforms like Maple Finance or Centrifuge?

Why did the price of ONDO fall?

Ondo (ONDO) dropped 16.28% in the last 24 hours, falling more than the overall crypto market, which declined by 9.79%. The main reasons for this include:

1. Technical breakdown – The price fell below important support levels, triggering automatic sell-offs.
2. Regulatory concerns – Increased scrutiny over tokenized stock products raised compliance worries.
3. Market-wide risk-off – Bitcoin’s dominance increased to 59.94%, putting pressure on alternative coins like ONDO.

In-Depth Analysis

1. Technical Breakdown (Negative Impact)

Summary: ONDO’s price dropped below its 30-day simple moving average (SMA) at $0.957 and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.732, which sped up selling. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) over 7 days hit 18.08, marking its most oversold level since June 2025.

What this means:

• Automated trading systems likely sold ONDO as the price fell below the $0.732 support level.
• Many traders using borrowed money (leverage) were forced to close positions, as open interest in ONDO perpetual contracts actually rose 4.22% in 24 hours despite the price drop, indicating forced liquidations.

What to watch: If ONDO’s price closes above $0.732, it could stabilize. If not, it may test the next support at the 61.8% Fibonacci level of $0.637.

2. Regulatory Risks for Tokenized Assets (Mixed Impact)

Summary: Reports like this one from Yahoo Finance show that regulators such as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and European Union are increasing scrutiny on tokenized securities, including those offered by Ondo.

What this means:

• Ondo’s stablecoins backed by USDY and tokenized U.S. Treasury products face uncertainty due to regulatory concerns, even though the company has formed new partnerships.
• Positive developments, like STBL’s recent $50 million USST minting using USDY, have been overshadowed by broader worries about compliance.

What to watch: The SEC Chair Paul Atkins’ upcoming decision on whether token issuers will receive regulatory exemptions.

3. Altcoin Sell-Off (Negative Impact)

Summary: The overall crypto market saw a surge in trading activity, with turnover rising to 0.324 from an average of 0.15, indicating panic selling. ONDO’s 24-hour trading volume jumped 318% to $763 million as investors moved funds into Bitcoin.

What this means:

• ONDO’s 16% price drop is similar to other real-world asset (RWA) tokens like CFG (-14%) and MPL (-12%).
• The Fear & Greed Index fell to 35, signaling “Extreme Fear,” which historically aligns with poor performance for altcoins.

Conclusion

Ondo’s recent price decline is due to a combination of technical selling triggers, sector-specific regulatory concerns, and a broader market shift away from riskier assets. Despite strong fundamentals like institutional partnerships and the $50 million USST expansion, traders are cautious about near-term regulatory and liquidity risks.

Key point to watch: Can ONDO hold the $0.637 Fibonacci support level? A price rebound will likely depend on clearer regulatory guidance or Bitcoin stabilizing above $55,000 to boost demand for altcoins.