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Why did the price of JUP fall?

Jupiter (JUP) dropped 21.7% in the last 24 hours, underperforming the overall crypto market, which fell 10.4%. This decline comes amid technical breakdowns, cautious sentiment across the sector, and mixed feelings about upcoming changes to the token’s economics.

  1. Technical Breakdown – The price fell below key support levels, triggering automatic sell orders.
  2. Solana DeFi Weakness – JUP’s price movement followed Solana (SOL), which dropped 18% over the week as investors pulled money out of riskier projects.
  3. Concerns About Staking Rewards – Investors are worried about inflation risks from unclaimed airdrop tokens being recycled back into the system.

Deep Dive

1. Technical Breakdown (Negative Impact)

What happened? JUP’s price fell below its 30-day average price ($0.479) and a key Fibonacci retracement level ($0.471), dropping to $0.336. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures if an asset is overbought or oversold, hit 27.06, indicating the token is oversold. The MACD indicator also showed negative momentum.

Why it matters: Traders who use technical analysis likely sold their positions after these breakdowns, increasing selling pressure. There is little support for the price until around $0.30, which could lead to further declines.

What to watch: If JUP can rise back above $0.353 (the 50% Fibonacci level), it may stabilize. If not, it could test its 2025 low near $0.13.

2. Solana Ecosystem Outflows (Mixed Impact)

What happened? The total value locked (TVL) in Solana’s decentralized finance (DeFi) projects dropped 23% month-over-month to $12 billion (CoinMarketCap). JUP’s trading volume on the Jupiter platform fell to $142 billion in Q2, down from $160 billion in Q1.

Why it matters: JUP’s role as the leading decentralized exchange (DEX) aggregator on Solana weakened as interest in meme coins slowed. Investors moved funds into more stable assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, partly due to uncertainty around a potential U.S. government shutdown.

3. Inflation Risks from Active Staking Rewards (Bearish Impact)

What happened? Jupiter’s Active Staking Rewards (ASR) program started redistributing 215 million unclaimed airdrop tokens to voters instead of burning (destroying) them (X post).

Why it matters: This could reduce the rewards for stakers by about 50% if adoption doesn’t increase, according to community analysis. This approach contrasts with JUP’s usual deflationary strategy of buying back tokens, causing uncertainty about the token’s future value.

Conclusion

JUP’s recent price drop is due to a combination of technical sell-offs, outflows from the Solana ecosystem, and worries about token inflation from the ASR program. While the oversold RSI suggests a possible short-term rebound, a sustained recovery depends on Solana’s DeFi activity picking up and clearer outcomes from the ASR changes.

Key points to watch: Will JUP hold above $0.30? Can the upcoming launch of Jupiter Lend in Q4 help offset selling pressure related to the ASR program?


What could affect the price of JUP?

Jupiter is navigating some challenges and opportunities in the decentralized finance (DeFi) space.

  1. JupUSD Stablecoin Launch – Expected in Q4 2025, this could increase Jupiter’s use on the Solana blockchain (Positive)
  2. Token Unlock Supply Increase – $32 million worth of tokens will become available, which might pressure the price (Negative)
  3. Governance Voting Pause – DAO voting is on hold until 2026, concentrating decision-making with core developers (Mixed)

In-Depth Look

1. JupUSD Stablecoin Launch (Positive)

What’s happening:
Jupiter plans to introduce a new stablecoin called JupUSD on the Solana blockchain in late 2025. This stablecoin will be backed by assets from BlackRock’s BUIDL-backed USDtb and Ethena’s USDe. It will be used across Jupiter’s trading, lending, and swapping services, potentially locking in over $750 million in liquidity from existing pools (Blockworks).

Why it matters:
Stablecoins are digital currencies designed to maintain a stable value, usually pegged to the US dollar. Having a native stablecoin can increase the platform’s revenue and encourage users to stay engaged. Jupiter could use fees from JupUSD transactions to buy back tokens, which may support the token’s price. However, success depends on keeping the stablecoin’s value stable and properly backed by assets, avoiding problems like what happened with Terra’s stablecoin collapse.

2. Token Unlock and Inflation Risks (Negative)

What’s happening:
On July 28, 2025, about 53.47 million JUP tokens (worth roughly $32 million) will become available for trading. This is about 1.28% of the total tokens currently circulating. After a similar unlock in March 2025, the token price dropped by 19%. Additionally, Jupiter’s Active Staking Rewards program recycles unclaimed tokens instead of removing them from circulation, which could increase the total supply and dilute value (Tokenomist).

Why it matters:
When a large number of tokens become available, it can increase selling pressure and push prices down unless there is enough demand. To maintain their rewards, stakers might need to hold 50% more JUP tokens after the unlock, according to community analysis. The success of Jupiter Lend, the platform’s lending service, will be important to absorb this new supply.

3. Governance Voting Pause (Mixed)

What’s happening:
Jupiter’s decentralized autonomous organization (DAO) has paused voting until 2026 due to internal disagreements. This means decision-making power is currently concentrated with the core development team. While this can speed up product development, like the Jupiter Lend platform, it reduces the role of JUP tokens in governance and may upset users who value decentralization (TheCCPress).

Why it matters:
In the short term, this centralization might help Jupiter move faster on new features, which could boost the token price. However, if the pause lasts too long, it could hurt community trust and discourage institutional investors who prefer decentralized governance.

Conclusion

Jupiter’s future depends on successfully launching JupUSD while managing the risks from token unlocks and governance changes. Key price levels to watch are $0.30 for support and $0.47 for resistance. Traders should keep an eye on how the JupUSD stablecoin adoption grows and how the market handles the July token unlock.


What are people saying about JUP?

The Jupiter community is divided between excitement about its new lending platform and concerns over governance issues. Here’s what’s trending:

  1. Jupiter Lend offers loans with up to 90% loan-to-value (LTV), encouraging bullish bets
  2. A $32 million token unlock is testing the price’s strength
  3. A pause in DAO governance has sparked debates about decentralization

Deep Dive

1. @JupiterExchange: Launch of Lending Protocol Positive

"Jupiter Lend beta offers loans with 95% LTV and a 1% penalty on liquidation. Half of the fees collected go toward buying back JUP tokens."
– JupiterExchange (2.1M followers · 8.3M impressions · 2025-08-10)
View original post
What this means: This new lending feature could increase demand for JUP tokens because some fees are used to buy them back. However, this positive effect needs to outweigh the impact of a large $32 million token release coming soon.

2. @ali_charts: Price Resistance at $0.63 Mixed

"JUP is facing strong resistance at $0.63. If it breaks above this level, the price could rise 20% to $0.76. But if it fails, it might drop to $0.51."
– @ali_charts (387K followers · 1.2M impressions · 2025-07-29)
View analysis
What this means: Traders see a chance for gains if the price breaks resistance, but there’s also risk of a decline. The outcome depends partly on how well Solana’s decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem performs.

3. Reddit Thread: Pause in DAO Governance Negative

"Governance has been paused until 2026 after team-controlled wallets influenced key votes, raising concerns about centralization."
– Reddit User (12.4K engagement · 2025-07-31)
What this means: Pausing governance reduces conflicts that might lead to selling pressure, but it also weakens the project’s claim to being decentralized.

Conclusion

The outlook for Jupiter (JUP) is mixed. On one hand, the growth of Solana’s DeFi space and Jupiter Lend’s fee structure offer potential upside. On the other hand, the upcoming token unlock of 1.28% of the supply (scheduled for July 28) and governance issues create uncertainty. Keep an eye on the $0.51 support level—if it holds, it could mean the market is absorbing the new tokens. If it breaks, it might lead to profit-taking and a price drop.


What is the latest news about JUP?

Jupiter is expanding its ecosystem and working on launching a stablecoin, all while navigating mixed signals from the market. Here’s a quick update:

  1. Stablecoin Launch with Ethena (October 8, 2025) – JupUSD, a stablecoin built on Solana, aims for a Q4 launch to strengthen decentralized finance (DeFi) activities.
  2. Meteora Airdrop Impact (October 10, 2025) – Unlocking all tokens at once may cause price swings but will test Solana’s DeFi strength.
  3. 21Shares ETP Launch (September 30, 2025) – Europe’s first regulated Jupiter exchange-traded product (ETP) offers institutional investors new access.

Deep Dive

1. Stablecoin Launch with Ethena (October 8, 2025)

What’s happening: Jupiter teamed up with Ethena Labs to create JupUSD, a stablecoin native to the Solana blockchain. It will initially be backed by USDtb, a stable asset supported by BlackRock’s BUIDL. JupUSD will be used across Jupiter’s trading, lending, and perpetual contracts platforms. The goal is to replace $750 million of USDC in liquidity pools with JupUSD.

Why it matters: This move is positive for Jupiter (JUP) because it reduces dependence on outside stablecoins, which could increase activity and fees within the Jupiter ecosystem. Success depends on smooth integration and passing security audits (Blockworks).

2. Meteora Airdrop Impact (October 10, 2025)

What’s happening: Meteora will unlock 48% of its total 1 billion MET tokens on October 23. Jupiter stakers will receive an airdrop of these tokens. Unlike typical gradual unlocks, Meteora is releasing all tokens at once, which could lead to price volatility but shows transparency.

Why it matters: This is a neutral event for JUP. The sudden token release might scare off casual traders due to price swings, but if managed well, it could boost confidence in Solana’s DeFi space. Key factors to watch include how much liquidity MET has after launch and how many holders keep their tokens (CryptoNews).

3. 21Shares ETP Launch (September 30, 2025)

What’s happening: 21Shares introduced the AJUP ETP on the SIX Swiss Exchange. This product gives regulated exposure to Jupiter’s massive $1 trillion+ trading volume on Solana. It charges a 2.5% fee and is aimed at institutional investors.

Why it matters: This is a positive development for JUP’s long-term value, as institutional money could bring more stable liquidity. However, demand might be lower compared to more popular Bitcoin or Ethereum ETFs because Jupiter is more specialized (21Shares).

Conclusion

Jupiter’s recent moves—launching JupUSD, supporting the Meteora airdrop, and opening doors to institutional investors—show its commitment to leading Solana’s DeFi growth. The big question is whether JupUSD’s rollout can balance out the risks from Meteora’s token unlock and attract steady investment.


What is expected in the development of JUP?

Jupiter’s roadmap focuses on growing its products, expanding its ecosystem, and improving how the community governs the platform.

  1. JupUSD Stablecoin (Q4 2025) – A new stablecoin built on Solana, designed to work seamlessly within Jupiter’s DeFi services.
  2. Jupnet Testnet (Early Q4 2025) – A public test of Jupiter’s cross-chain liquidity network, connecting different blockchains.
  3. Jupuary 2026 Airdrop (January 2026) – An annual token giveaway rewarding active users.
  4. DAO Governance Revamp (2026) – A new governance system to improve community decision-making.

In-Depth Look

1. JupUSD Stablecoin (Q4 2025)

What it is: Jupiter is launching JupUSD, a stablecoin native to the Solana blockchain, created in partnership with Ethena Labs. Supported by BlackRock’s BUIDL fund and USDtb, JupUSD aims to reduce dependence on other stablecoins like USDC. It will be integrated into Jupiter’s trading, lending, and perpetual contracts platforms.
Why it matters:

2. Jupnet Testnet (Early Q4 2025)

What it is: Jupnet is Jupiter’s upcoming liquidity network that connects multiple blockchains, starting with Solana and Ethereum. The public testnet will allow users to try it out and provide feedback.
Why it matters:

3. Jupuary 2026 Airdrop (January 2026)

What it is: Jupiter’s yearly token distribution event rewards users based on their activity, such as trading and providing liquidity. The 2026 airdrop follows a large 700 million JUP token distribution in 2025.
Why it matters:

4. DAO Governance Revamp (2026)

What it is: After pausing governance votes in 2025 due to concerns about too much control by a few, Jupiter plans to introduce a new governance model combining delegated voting with expert councils.
Why it matters:

Conclusion

Jupiter’s roadmap aims to strengthen its position in DeFi by launching JupUSD, enabling cross-chain liquidity with Jupnet, and keeping users engaged through incentives and improved governance. The stablecoin launch and Jupnet testnet are key near-term events, while governance changes and airdrops support long-term growth.

Will JupUSD help JUP recover from its current 54% yearly drop, or will token unlocks and broader market challenges limit its upside?


What updates are there in the JUP code base?

Jupiter’s software received important updates that boost security, improve its API system, and make the overall platform safer for users.

  1. API Endpoint Changes (October 2025) – Old API versions were fully retired, so developers must switch to new API paths.
  2. Token Verification v4 (August 2025) – Stricter checks cut down fake token listings by about 40%.
  3. Developer Tokens Tab (July 2025) – New tool tracks tokens created by wallets to spot potential scams.

Deep Dive

1. API Endpoint Changes (October 2025)

What happened: On October 1, 2025, Jupiter stopped supporting older API endpoints like Price V2 and Token V1. Developers now need to use updated endpoints such as /swap/v1 and /price/v3. Free users access the service through lite-api.jup.ag, while paid users get higher limits via api.jup.ag.
Why it matters: This update is positive for Jupiter (JUP) because the new, streamlined APIs are more reliable, especially for large institutions integrating the platform. However, smaller developers might face some challenges adjusting to the changes. (Source)

2. Token Verification v4 (August 2025)

What happened: Jupiter introduced its fourth version of token verification, which requires tokens to pass stricter audits and liquidity checks before listing. This led to a roughly 40% drop in fake or scam token listings within the first week.
Why it matters: This is good news for JUP because safer trading conditions attract more everyday users and reduce the chance of regulatory problems. (Source)

3. Developer Tokens Tab (July 2025)

What happened: Jupiter Pro added a feature that tracks all tokens created by specific wallets. It flags suspicious patterns that might indicate scams, like “rug pulls” where developers suddenly withdraw funds.
Why it matters: This update improves user safety but doesn’t directly increase trading activity, so its impact on JUP’s growth is neutral. (Source)

Conclusion

Jupiter’s recent updates show a clear focus on improving security, scaling the platform, and appealing to institutional users. The API overhaul and stronger token verification demonstrate a maturing infrastructure, while tools to detect scams prioritize protecting users. These changes could help Jupiter (JUP) become more widely adopted in the decentralized finance (DeFi) space.