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What is expected in the development of XLM?

Stellar is making steady progress with these key updates:

  1. Protocol 24 (ZK & Privacy) (2026) – Introducing privacy upgrades using zero-knowledge proofs.
  2. Enterprise Payment Solutions (Q1 2026) – Making cross-border payments easier and faster for businesses.
  3. Freighter Wallet 2.0 (Q4 2025) – Adding stronger security and user-friendly features for companies.

In-Depth Look

1. Protocol 24 (ZK & Privacy) (2026)

What’s happening:
Stellar’s upcoming Protocol 24 upgrade will bring zero-knowledge (ZK) proofs, a technology that enhances privacy by allowing transactions to be verified without revealing sensitive details. This builds on improvements from the previous Protocol 23 (Nethermind). The goal is to make Stellar a top choice for secure and private transactions, especially for businesses dealing with digital assets.

Why it matters:
This upgrade could make Stellar (XLM) more attractive to companies that need privacy in international payments. However, delays or regulatory challenges could slow down how quickly it’s adopted.

2. Enterprise Payment Solutions (Q1 2026)

What’s happening:
Stellar is working with major financial institutions to use its blockchain for fast, low-cost payments between businesses. It’s testing compatibility with SWIFT’s ISO 20022 messaging standard, which is widely used in traditional banking (Finance Magnates). This helps Stellar connect smoothly with existing payment systems.

Why it matters:
This could boost Stellar’s use in business payments, but it faces strong competition from other blockchain projects like Ripple (XRP) and Hedera (HBAR).

3. Freighter Wallet 2.0 (Q4 2025)

What’s happening:
The Freighter Wallet, Stellar’s digital wallet, will get new features such as social media logins, one-time-use wallets for things like payroll, and better support for Soroban smart contracts (Coindesk). These changes aim to make using crypto easier for people who aren’t tech experts.

Why it matters:
Better wallet features could encourage more people and businesses to use Stellar (XLM). Success depends on how well it integrates with current financial tools.

Conclusion

Stellar’s roadmap combines cutting-edge tech (like zero-knowledge proofs in Protocol 24) with practical solutions for businesses (payment systems and wallet upgrades). While recent price drops reflect a tough market for altcoins, improvements in privacy and compliance could help Stellar regain momentum. Will Protocol 24’s privacy features help Stellar stand out against competitors like Ethereum and Solana?

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What updates are there in the XLM code base?

Stellar’s software received important upgrades and fixes in late 2025.

  1. Protocol 24 Preparation (October 2025) – Operators running Stellar nodes need to update their software to support new privacy features and better data access.
  2. Protocol 23 “Whisk” (September 2025) – This update improved how smart contracts run in parallel and made event logging easier for developers.
  3. State Archival Bug Fix (November 2025) – A critical fix was applied to resolve network issues caused by a bug in storing contract data.

Deep Dive

1. Protocol 24 Preparation (October 2025)

Overview: By October 22, 2025, all Stellar node operators must upgrade to Stellar Core version 24.0.0rc2. This prepares the network for Protocol 24, which focuses on enhancing privacy and speeding up data retrieval.

Details: The upgrade adds support for zero-knowledge proofs (a privacy technology) and allows easier testing using Docker containers. Validators will vote on activating Protocol 24 on October 22, and it will go live once enough agree. Important changes include new transaction fee rules and improvements to how data is organized using Merkle trees.

What this means: This is positive news for Stellar (XLM) because it sets the stage for advanced privacy features and faster access to blockchain data. Node operators must update to stay connected to the network.
(Source)

2. Protocol 23 “Whisk” (September 2025)

Overview: Activated on September 3, 2025, Protocol 23 introduced the ability to run multiple smart contracts at the same time and standardized how events are logged.

Details: This update increased the network’s capacity to handle up to 5,000 transactions per second by allowing simultaneous execution of Soroban smart contracts. It also made event logs consistent, helping developers debug issues about 40% faster.

What this means: In the short term, this update had a neutral effect on XLM’s price. While the network became more scalable, the market didn’t react strongly because institutional adoption signals were still slow to appear.
(Source)

3. State Archival Bug Fix (November 2025)

Overview: On November 8, 2025, a critical bug in Soroban’s system for storing contract states was fixed after it caused network instability.

Details: The bug allowed outdated contract data to interfere with active records, risking network errors. The fix added stricter checks on memory use and increased the cost (gas fees) for storing contract data long-term by 15%.

What this means: This caused a short-term price drop of about 12%, but it’s positive in the long run. After the fix, smart contract deployments on Stellar surged by 700%, showing renewed confidence in the platform.
(Source)

Conclusion

Stellar’s 2025 updates focus on making the network more scalable and developer-friendly, though adoption by big players is still catching up. The upcoming Protocol 24, with its privacy features, could be a key driver if it attracts institutional validators during its late 2025 test phase.


What could affect the price of XLM?

Stellar is currently balancing between promising technical upgrades and cautious market sentiment.

  1. Protocol 23 Upgrade – Enhancements aimed at boosting scalability could spark renewed growth in decentralized finance (DeFi).
  2. Institutional Interest – Partnerships like Grayscale’s trust and PayPal’s integration show growing demand.
  3. Short-Term Weakness – Technical indicators suggest some downward pressure in the near future.

In-Depth Analysis

1. Protocol 23 Upgrade (Positive Outlook)

What’s Happening:
Stellar’s upcoming Protocol 23 upgrade, expected in the third quarter of 2025, will introduce features like parallel smart contract execution and unified asset tracking. These improvements are key to scaling DeFi applications and tokenizing real-world assets. The test network has already demonstrated the ability to handle 5,000 transactions per second, overcoming previous speed limitations (Stellar Development Foundation).

Why It Matters:
Better scalability can attract developers focused on cross-border payments and asset tokenization. Previous upgrades, such as the Soroban smart contracts, led to a sevenfold increase in on-chain activity. If this trend repeats, Stellar’s native token, XLM, could recover from its recent low of $0.16.

2. Institutional Support vs. Market Mood (Mixed Signals)

What’s Happening:
Grayscale’s XLM Trust continues to see investment inflows despite a 2.5% management fee, and PayPal’s integration of its PYUSD stablecoin expands Stellar’s payment network. However, Bitcoin still dominates the market with a 58.4% share, and overall market sentiment is very cautious, with an “Extreme Fear” index reading of 10 out of 100.

Why It Matters:
While institutional partnerships confirm Stellar’s potential, XLM remains sensitive to broader market downturns. The $0.265 price level is a key support; if it breaks, it could lead to panic selling and push prices down toward $0.20.

3. Technical Indicators Point to Short-Term Challenges

What’s Happening:
XLM recently experienced a “death cross” — a bearish signal where the short-term moving average crosses below the long-term average. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 29.8, indicating the token is oversold. Resistance levels at $0.309 and $0.291 have repeatedly prevented price gains since June.

Why It Matters:
These signs suggest weak momentum and possible continued price consolidation below $0.25. However, the 200-day exponential moving average at $0.335 shows that long-term investors may be accumulating. A strong price close above $0.30 could reverse the bearish trend.

Conclusion

Stellar’s future price depends on how well the Protocol 23 upgrade is adopted in real-world applications versus the overall cautious mood in the crypto market. While the upgrades position XLM as a strong candidate for central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and enterprise blockchain use, regaining the $0.30 level is crucial for positive momentum. Keep an eye on shrinking exchange reserves (down 14% since October) to see if investors are accumulating or losing interest. Monitoring the mainnet upgrade progress and Grayscale’s XLM holdings will provide important clues.


What are people saying about XLM?

Stellar’s XLM is caught between hopes for a price breakout and ongoing downward pressure. Here’s the latest:

  1. Technical debate: Experts are divided—some expect a rise above $0.50, others warn of a drop to $0.10.
  2. Protocol 23 upgrade buzz: This update is seen as crucial for Stellar’s plans in decentralized finance (DeFi).
  3. Whale activity alert: A large $36 million XLM sale on Coinbase caused concern among investors.

Deep Dive

1. @ali_charts: $0.50 Breakout vs. $0.10 Crash – Mixed Signals

“XLM is testing support around $0.11–$0.115; if it falls below, it could drop 50%.”
– @ali_charts (351K followers · 2.1M impressions · 2025-07-26 09:50 UTC)
View original post
What this means: If XLM falls below this key support level, it could lead to a significant price drop. But if it holds, there’s potential for the price to climb back up to $0.30–$0.35. Pay attention to the $0.20–$0.24 range, where a large volume of 162 million XLM recently traded (CoinMarketCap).

2. @StellarOrg: Protocol 23 Mainnet Upgrade – Positive Outlook

“Everything comes to Stellar.”
– @StellarOrg (842K followers · 9289 posts · 2025-08-12 19:14 UTC)
View original post
What this means: The upcoming Q3 2025 upgrade aims to increase transaction speed to 5,000 per second and reduce fees by running smart contracts in parallel (Protocol 23 details). If successful, this could attract more developers and users. However, any delays might prolong XLM’s recent 43% decline over the past 90 days.

3. @EGRAGCRYPTO: $7.20 Price Target – Optimistic

“A decade-long cup-and-handle pattern suggests targets between $1.51 and $7.20.”
– @EGRAGCRYPTO (Unlisted followers · 2025-07-12 14:00 UTC)
View original post
What this means: For this optimistic scenario, XLM needs to stay above $0.20 and break past $1. The recent $445 million treasury tokenization by Franklin Templeton on Stellar adds credibility. However, trading volume has dropped 62.7% in the last 90 days (Yahoo Finance).

Conclusion

The outlook for XLM is mixed. While the Protocol 23 upgrade and partnerships with Visa and MoneyGram point to long-term potential, recent price drops—including a 27% fall in November and a $36 million whale sell-off—show investor caution. The key level to watch is the $0.20–$0.24 demand zone. If XLM stays above this, it could set the stage for a rebound in early 2026. If it falls below, bearish predictions may come true.


What is the latest news about XLM?

Stellar is adapting to SWIFT’s global payments upgrade, large transfers are shaking up the market, and new protocol improvements are encouraging more institutional use.

  1. SWIFT’s ISO 20022 Migration (Nov 22, 2025) – Stellar is emerging as a strong option for compliant international payments.
  2. Whale Transfers to Coinbase (Nov 21, 2025) – $36 million worth of XLM moved, hinting at possible selling pressure.
  3. Chainlink Integration (Oct 31, 2025) – Added data feeds and cross-chain connections to boost functionality.

Deep Dive

1. SWIFT’s ISO 20022 Migration (November 22, 2025)

Overview: SWIFT, the global payments network used by banks, completed its upgrade to the ISO 20022 messaging standard. This new standard replaces older systems with one that supports richer, more detailed payment data. While this upgrade doesn’t directly certify blockchain networks, Stellar’s design fits well with ISO 20022’s goals: handling detailed transaction data quickly and affordably. Ripple (XRP) is Stellar’s main competitor here, but Stellar’s focus on smaller, faster payments could give it an edge in developing markets.

What this means: Neutral for Stellar (XLM) right now. Being ready for compliance is a positive for the long term, but actual adoption depends on partnerships with banks and clear regulations. SWIFT is testing blockchain solutions (including Stellar, Ripple, and Algorand), which could lead to future compatibility, but no immediate changes are expected. (CCN)

2. Whale Transfers to Coinbase (November 21, 2025)

Overview: A large transfer of 162 million XLM (about $36 million) was sent to Coinbase in three quick transactions. This happened alongside a 10% drop in XLM’s price during the day, falling to $0.2223. Although the price partially recovered, XLM is still down 27% over the past month.

What this means: This is a bearish sign in the short term. Big transfers to exchanges often mean large holders (whales) might be preparing to sell, which can push prices down. However, strong buying from regular investors, with $291 million spent on “buying the dip,” could help limit further losses. It’s important to watch if these whales sell or hold their coins. (U.Today)

3. Chainlink Integration (October 31, 2025)

Overview: Stellar joined Chainlink’s SCALE program, adding Chainlink’s Data Feeds and Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol (CCIP). This means Stellar can now access reliable external data and connect with other blockchain networks like Ethereum. This upgrade improves Stellar’s ability to support decentralized finance (DeFi) projects and real-world asset tokenization.

What this means: Positive for the long term. Institutional projects, such as Franklin Templeton’s $445 million tokenized treasury bonds, benefit from Chainlink’s trusted data oracles. This integration could also attract more developers to build on Stellar’s Soroban smart contracts platform. (Stellar)

Conclusion

Stellar’s alignment with ISO 20022 and its Chainlink partnership strengthen its technical foundation. However, market swings caused by large holders and Bitcoin’s dominance (58% of the market) limit immediate growth. The upcoming Protocol 23 scalability upgrades in 2026 may be the key to unlocking Stellar’s full potential in decentralized finance.


Why did the price of XLM fall?

Stellar (XLM) dropped 2.01% in the last 24 hours to $0.23, underperforming the overall crypto market, which fell by 1.08%. The main reasons behind this decline include large holders selling off, technical chart weaknesses, and mixed reactions to SWIFT’s ISO 20022 update.

  1. Big transfers of XLM to exchanges (about $36 million moved to Coinbase) hinted at possible sell-offs.
  2. Technical signals like a low RSI (23.2) and bearish MACD show weak momentum and oversold conditions.
  3. The completion of SWIFT’s ISO 20022 migration didn’t provide a clear boost for Stellar.

Deep Dive

1. Large Holder Activity & Selling Pressure (Negative Impact)

What happened:

Why it matters:
When big holders (often called “whales”) move coins to exchanges, it usually signals they plan to sell. This caused a spike in trading volume (+58%), with smaller traders buying the dip but not enough to offset the selling pressure from whales.

What to watch:
Keep an eye on more large transfers to exchanges like Coinbase, which could lead to further price drops if selling continues.

2. Technical Weakness (Bearish Signals)

What happened:

Why it matters:
Breaking below support confirms a downtrend, and automated trading systems likely accelerated the sell-off. The low RSI suggests a possible short-term bounce, but the MACD indicates the downward momentum may continue.

3. SWIFT ISO 20022 Migration (Mixed Effects)

What happened:
SWIFT completed its migration to the ISO 20022 messaging standard on November 22. Stellar and Ripple (XRP) are often linked to this update, but:

Why it matters:
Expectations that Stellar would benefit significantly from this migration were likely too optimistic. This led to a “sell the news” reaction, where XLM underperformed compared to XRP, which saw a 3.6% rebound on similar news.

Conclusion

Stellar’s recent price drop is due to a combination of large holders selling, technical weaknesses, and unmet expectations around SWIFT’s ISO 20022 update. Although the coin is oversold and might bounce back soon, the overall altcoin market is still under pressure from Bitcoin’s dominance (58.4%) and a generally cautious market mood.

What to watch next:
Will XLM hold its $0.22 support level, or will continued selling push it toward its 2025 lows near $0.218? Also, watch for any new partnerships related to SWIFT that could provide long-term growth opportunities.

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