What could affect the price of RAY?

Raydium’s price is caught between the growing momentum of Solana’s decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem and some significant challenges.

1. USD1 Stablecoin Partnership – New collaborations on Solana could increase trading activity (positive).
2. Growth in Solana’s DeFi Space – Network upgrades and more funds locked in DeFi might help Raydium (mixed).
3. Regulatory and Liquidity Concerns – U.S. restrictions and limited market liquidity could hold back adoption (negative).

In-Depth Analysis

1. USD1 Stablecoin Integration (Positive Impact)

Overview:
Raydium has partnered with World Liberty Financial’s USD1 stablecoin, which is now available on the Solana blockchain. USD1 has a circulation of $2.88 billion and offers large incentives to traders (WLFI). This partnership positions Raydium as a key platform for stablecoin trading.

What this means:
More stablecoin trading pairs on Raydium’s decentralized exchange (DEX) could lead to higher transaction fees and better rewards for liquidity providers, boosting the utility and demand for Raydium’s token, RAY. However, USD1 faces strong competition from USDC, which currently dominates 64% of Solana’s stablecoin market.

2. Solana’s DeFi Growth (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
Solana’s DeFi total value locked (TVL) reached $13 billion in November 2025, with Raydium handling $1.16 billion in daily trading volume. The upcoming Firedancer network upgrade aims to increase Solana’s capacity, which could attract more projects to Raydium’s launchpad (Blockworks).

What this means:
Raydium could benefit from Solana’s expanding ecosystem, but there are challenges. Active users have dropped by 81% since December 2024, and competition from platforms like Pump.fun, which holds 44% of the memecoin market, threatens Raydium’s fee income.

3. Liquidity and Regulatory Challenges (Negative Impact)

Overview:
Raydium’s turnover ratio is 0.083, indicating lower liquidity compared to competitors like Uniswap, which has a ratio of 0.41. Lower liquidity can lead to more price volatility. Additionally, 27% of the cryptocurrency market is in regions where Raydium faces restrictions, including the U.S. and the U.K. (CMC Community).

What this means:
Thin liquidity increases the risk of sharp price drops during sell-offs. Regulatory restrictions limit user growth and adoption. This is reflected in RAY’s 59% price decline over the past 60 days.

Conclusion

Raydium’s price outlook depends heavily on the adoption of the USD1 stablecoin, Solana’s network upgrades, and improvements in liquidity. While new partnerships provide short-term growth opportunities, regulatory hurdles and strong competition remain significant risks. Can Raydium’s LaunchLab fee growth (+220% quarter-over-quarter) make up for the decline in user activity? Keep an eye on Solana’s Firedancer upgrade and how USD1 competes with USDC in the market.

What are people saying about RAY?

Talk around Raydium (RAY) swings between hopes for a price breakout and worries about a drop. Here’s what’s trending right now:

1. Bullish outlook aims for $3.50 or higher if RAY breaks through resistance
2. Buyback program is creating optimism by reducing supply
3. Regulatory challenges and competition from Pump.fun are causing some concern

Deep Dive

1. @ElliottForecast: Possible Wave III rally? bullish

“Price is nearing a strong support zone – buyers might jump in soon.”
– @ElliottForecast (37K followers · 380K impressions · 2025-09-03 03:32 UTC)
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What this means: Technical analysts see Raydium’s 58% drop so far this year as a chance for a price rebound. Using Elliott Wave theory, they expect accumulation around $1.30 to $1.50, which could lead to a rally.

2. @ali_charts: $3.80 rejection could lead to a drop bearish

“If RAY fails to break above $3.80, it might fall back to $1.50!”
– @ali_charts (162K followers · 1.4M impressions · 2025-09-02 23:02 UTC)
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What this means: If Raydium can’t hold above key Fibonacci retracement levels—specifically $3.80, which marks a 61.8% retracement of the 2024-2025 price drop—automated trading systems might trigger selling, pushing the price down.

3. @genius_sirenBSC: Buybacks and product growth are positive signs bullish

“12% of protocol fees go toward daily RAY buybacks, offering a 6% annualized yield.”
– @genius_sirenBSC (82K followers · 330K impressions · 2025-06-19 13:40 UTC)
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What this means: Raydium’s LaunchLab now accounts for 60% of the protocol’s revenue, and $120 million is locked in Riptide Farms. These strong fundamentals could support price growth despite recent declines.

Conclusion

The outlook on Raydium is mixed. Technical traders are watching for signs of a price reversal, but broader concerns remain. Keep an eye on the $3.50 resistance level, which is the volume-weighted average price for 2025, for clues on the next move. Will Raydium’s buyback program, which has cut circulating supply by 30%, be enough to counter shifts in the Solana ecosystem? The price range between $1.50 and $3.80 will likely tell the next chapter.

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What is the latest news about RAY?

Raydium is working through Solana’s ups and downs by forming key partnerships and tackling challenges in the ecosystem. Here are the latest highlights:

1. USD1 Stablecoin Expansion (Nov 7, 2025) – Raydium teams up with WLFI, a group linked to Trump, to grow USD1’s presence in Solana’s decentralized finance (DeFi) space.
2. Project Wings Launch (Nov 6, 2025) – USD1 is now part of BONKfun and Raydium pools, supported by multi-million-dollar rewards to encourage trading and liquidity.
3. Solana Ecosystem Slump (Nov 7, 2025) – Raydium’s token (RAY) dropped 21% amid a wider decline in Solana-based tokens.

Deep Dive

1. USD1 Stablecoin Expansion (November 7, 2025)

What happened:
Raydium partnered with World Liberty Financial (WLFI) and the memecoin platform Bonk to promote USD1 as Solana’s main stablecoin, aiming to challenge the popular USDC stablecoin. USD1 trading pairs and liquidity pools launched on Raydium and BONKfun, allowing new tokens to launch and DeFi activities to grow. WLFI plans to increase USD1’s circulation (currently $2.9 billion) by offering rewards like yield farming incentives.

Why it matters:
This is positive news for Raydium because more USD1 use could increase trading volume and fees on its platform. However, USDC already has a strong presence on Solana with $9 billion in supply, which could make it hard for USD1 to gain ground. (Cryptonews)

2. Project Wings Launch (November 6, 2025)

What happened:
Raydium launched “Project Wings,” which uses USD1 as a base trading pair for new tokens on BONKfun’s launchpad. Liquidity for these tokens flows through Raydium, and the project includes a multi-million-dollar rewards program for traders and liquidity providers.

Why it matters:
This move strengthens Raydium’s role in helping new tokens launch on Solana, potentially attracting more projects to its platform. While this could lead to short-term increases in trading volume, long-term success depends on continued demand for USD1. (NullTX)

3. Solana Ecosystem Slump (November 7, 2025)

What happened:
Raydium’s token (RAY) dropped 21% over the week, along with other Solana tokens like JTO (-19%) and MPLX (-24%). This decline followed worries about competing blockchain technologies and low liquidity in the market.

Why it matters:
RAY’s price is still vulnerable to overall risks in the Solana ecosystem. While there could be technical rebounds, a full recovery depends on better market sentiment and Bitcoin’s price direction. (Blockworks)

Conclusion

Raydium’s efforts to promote USD1 and improve its launchpad aim to offset Solana’s recent market challenges. However, RAY’s future performance will largely depend on broader market trends. The key question remains: can USD1’s incentives overcome USDC’s strong liquidity advantage on Solana?

What is expected in the development of RAY?

Raydium is moving forward with several key updates:

1. Rewards Program Expansion (Q4 2025) – Increasing incentives to encourage more traders and creators to use the platform.
2. xStocks Liquidity Integration (Q4 2025) – Adding pools for tokenized stocks to improve liquidity.
3. Fee Structure Optimization (Q1 2026) – Adjusting trading fees based on market feedback to stay competitive.

Deep Dive

1. Rewards Program Expansion (Q4 2025)

Overview: Raydium currently rewards active users with 50,000 $RAY tokens. They plan to add another 50,000 $RAY to encourage even more participation. This program helped push the price of RAY up by 21% in one week during July 2025 (CoinMarketCap Community).
What this means: This is a positive sign for RAY since more user activity can increase demand. However, the challenge is keeping users engaged once the rewards end.

2. xStocks Liquidity Integration (Q4 2025)

Overview: Raydium will introduce liquidity pools for tokenized stocks like $SPYx and $TSLAx through a partnership with xStocks. This move aims to combine traditional financial assets with decentralized finance (DeFi) benefits, using Solana’s fast network (xStocks).
What this means: This could be good for Raydium by expanding its offerings. Success depends on whether institutions adopt these tokenized stocks and how regulations develop.

3. Fee Structure Optimization (Q1 2026)

Overview: Raydium is experimenting with a 1.25% trading fee on new tokens like WAVE and may adjust fees based on trading volume and user feedback. Competitors such as Uniswap V4 and Serum are influencing fee strategies.
What this means: Higher fees could discourage users, but well-optimized fees might attract more projects and traders, helping Raydium grow its decentralized exchange (DEX) market share.

Conclusion

Raydium’s plans focus on rewarding users, adding tokenized stock options, and fine-tuning fees to stay competitive. While these steps could increase adoption, challenges like regulatory restrictions (27% of the crypto market cap is in restricted areas) and competition from projects like Pump.fun (which holds 44% of Solana memecoin market share) remain significant. It will be important to watch if Solana’s ecosystem growth can overcome these hurdles in 2026.

What updates are there in the RAY code base?

Raydium’s latest updates focus on unifying liquidity, improving token tools, and upgrading its infrastructure.

1. Orb Explorer Launch (November 4, 2025) – A new blockchain analytics tool that offers real-time trading insights
2. CLMM AllowList Upgrades (Q3 2025) – Better control over who can provide liquidity for token launches
3. LaunchLab Fee Sharing (August 20, 2025) – Creators now earn SOL from trading fees after migrating their tokens
4. V3 Beta Integration (July 8, 2025) – Combines automated market maker (AMM) liquidity with order book data for deeper liquidity

Deep Dive

1. Orb Explorer Launch (November 4, 2025)

What it is: Orb Explorer is a new tool that gives detailed data on Raydium’s swaps, liquidity pools, and memecoin launches. It shows important stats like slippage (price changes during trades), liquidity provider concentrations, and live trading volume.

This tool uses upgraded technology to handle Solana’s fast data flow, giving traders and developers useful insights without needing outside platforms.

Why it matters: This is neutral for Raydium (RAY) token holders. It helps users make better decisions but doesn’t directly increase Raydium’s revenue. It does strengthen Raydium’s reputation as a data-rich decentralized exchange (DEX).
(Source)

2. CLMM AllowList Upgrades (Q3 2025)

What it is: The Concentrated Liquidity Market Maker (CLMM) pools now let projects limit who can add liquidity during token launches by using an allowList (a whitelist).

This helps prevent front-running, which is when traders try to jump ahead and take advantage of early trades, a common problem during new token launches.

Why it matters: This is positive for RAY holders. It reduces unfair trading practices and encourages more projects to launch tokens on Raydium, leading to fairer token distributions.
(Source)

3. LaunchLab Fee Sharing (August 20, 2025)

What it is: Token creators now earn between 0.05% and 0.10% of trading fees paid in SOL (Solana’s native token) after their tokens move to Raydium’s AMM pools. This replaces the previous system where rewards were paid in RAY tokens.

This update supports the latest Token22 standard on Solana, which includes transfer fees.

Why it matters: This is good news for RAY holders. It encourages projects to stay committed to Raydium long-term and reduces selling pressure caused by creators receiving RAY tokens as rewards.
(Source)

4. V3 Beta Integration (July 8, 2025)

What it is: This update combines Raydium’s AMM liquidity with OpenBook’s order book data using new smart contracts. This means traders can access about 40% more liquidity across Solana’s decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem.

The system uses wrapper contracts to stay compatible with existing liquidity providers, so no action is needed from them.

Why it matters: This is neutral for RAY holders. While liquidity improves, the success depends on how well OpenBook replaces Serum as Solana’s main order book platform.
(Source)

Conclusion

Raydium’s recent updates focus on increasing liquidity (with V3 integration), rewarding creators (through LaunchLab fee sharing), and providing advanced tools (like Orb Explorer). Holding 76.5% of Solana’s tokenized asset trading volume, Raydium aims to remain the top liquidity hub on the Solana blockchain. The key question is whether these expanded fee-sharing features will attract steady project participation despite the ups and downs of memecoin markets.

Why did the price of RAY fall?

Raydium (RAY) dropped 2.9% to $1.39 over the last 24 hours, underperforming the overall crypto market, which fell 0.8%. This decline is part of a larger 17.6% weekly drop and is driven by three main factors:

1. Weakness in the Solana Ecosystem – RAY’s price followed Solana’s (SOL) 3.1% daily decline as decentralized finance (DeFi) activity slowed down.
2. Technical Breakdown – The price fell below a key support level at $1.41, based on a common technical analysis tool called the Fibonacci retracement.
3. Risk-Off Market Sentiment – The Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropped to 24, indicating “Extreme Fear,” which reduces demand for altcoins like RAY.

Deep Dive

1. Solana Ecosystem Pressures (Negative Impact)

Raydium, the largest decentralized exchange (DEX) on the Solana blockchain, is feeling the effects of Solana’s 3.1% price drop and a slowdown in DeFi activity. The broader Solana ecosystem fell 19% over the past week, with RAY and other tokens like JTO and MPLX among the biggest losers (Blockworks).

What this means: Because RAY’s price closely follows SOL (with a strong correlation of 0.87 this year), it is vulnerable to ecosystem-wide liquidity withdrawals. Solana’s total value locked (TVL)—a measure of assets committed to DeFi projects—fell 12% month-over-month to $3.2 billion, which means less fee revenue for Raydium.

What to watch: Keep an eye on whether SOL can hold its $135 support level and how the adoption of a new USD1 stablecoin through Raydium’s partnership with WLFI develops (BSC News).

2. Technical Breakdown (Bearish Momentum)

Raydium’s price fell below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $1.41 and is trading below key moving averages (7-day average at $1.42 and 30-day average at $1.74). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 34.47, indicating the token is oversold but without signs of a reversal yet.

What this means: Sellers are in control across different time frames. The next major support level is at $1.05, which was the low in 2025. While there is a small sign of buying pressure, the overall technical indicators remain negative.

Key level: A daily close above $1.45, which was previous support, could suggest some short-term relief.

3. Macro Risk Aversion (Mixed Effects)

The broader crypto market is experiencing risk-off sentiment, meaning investors are cautious and prefer safer assets:

• Total crypto market cap dropped 0.8% to $3.43 trillion
• The Altcoin Season Index is at 31, showing Bitcoin dominance at 59.3%
• Stablecoin trading pairs made up 72% of Raydium’s trading volume

What this means: During times of fear, traders tend to favor more liquid and established cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), putting pressure on mid-sized DeFi tokens like RAY. Raydium’s 24-hour trading volume fell 48% to $30.9 million, increasing price volatility.

Conclusion

Raydium’s recent price drop is due to a combination of challenges specific to the Solana ecosystem, technical weaknesses, and cautious market sentiment. While the introduction of a new USD1 stablecoin could improve Raydium’s usefulness over time, traders are currently focused on short-term risks related to liquidity.

Key levels to watch: Whether Solana can reclaim $140 and Raydium can hold $1.35. If these levels fail, RAY could see further losses toward $1.20.

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