What could affect the price of RAY?

Raydium's price is caught between Solana’s growing decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem and increasing competition from other platforms.

1. Solana Ecosystem Growth – Network upgrades and new real-world asset (RWA) integrations could increase Raydium’s usefulness (Mixed Impact)
2. DEX Competition – Pump.fun’s memecoin popularity and low liquidity on Raydium threaten its market share (Bearish)
3. Buyback Mechanics – Protocol fees fund a 6% annual buyback of RAY tokens, helping support the price (Bullish)

Deep Dive

1. Solana Ecosystem Growth (Mixed Impact)

Overview: Raydium’s success depends heavily on how well Solana’s network grows. An upcoming upgrade called Firedancer, expected in the third quarter of 2025, aims to speed up the network, which could attract more projects to use Raydium’s liquidity pools. Recent partnerships, like xStocks offering tokenized stocks and PRIME’s real-world asset yield products (xStocks), show growing interest from institutional investors. However, Solana’s total value locked (TVL) recently dropped to $8.67 billion, down 34% from its peak in September 2025. Raydium’s trading volumes also fell sharply—down 95% from the memecoin-driven highs in January (CoinTelegraph).

What this means: While Solana’s technical improvements could boost DeFi activity, Raydium needs steady growth in TVL to recover from an 81% drop over the past year. Its future depends on attracting new demand from real-world assets and tokenized equities, rather than relying on short-lived memecoin trends.

2. DEX Competition (Bearish Impact)

Overview: Pump.fun took 44% of Solana’s memecoin trading volume in July 2025, pulling retail traders away from Raydium. Raydium’s turnover ratio (0.13) is much lower than Uniswap’s (0.41), indicating less liquidity and higher chances of price slippage for traders. Additionally, Raydium’s protocol revenue fell 43% quarter-over-quarter to $18.33 million in July (CryptoNews).

What this means: Without improvements in fees or user experience, Raydium risks becoming just a backend liquidity provider for aggregators like Jupiter. The 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $2.28 remains a major resistance level, currently 58% above Raydium’s price.

3. Buyback Mechanics (Bullish Impact)

Overview: Raydium’s LaunchLab platform generates about $900,000 daily in fees, with 12% of that used to buy back RAY tokens (Community Post). This creates an annualized yield of roughly 6%, which is competitive with staking returns on major Layer 1 blockchains.

What this means: Ongoing buybacks could help stabilize Raydium’s price, but this depends on LaunchLab continuing to grow its fees by 60%. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 37.3 suggests the token is oversold, which historically has led to 20-30% price rebounds when combined with buyback activity.

Conclusion

Raydium’s future depends on balancing Solana’s technological upgrades with tough competition in the decentralized exchange (DEX) space and regulatory challenges. The $0.83–$0.93 support zone is crucial—if prices fall below this, Raydium could revisit 2025 lows near $0.62. On the upside, reclaiming $1.06 could open the door to $1.56. Keep an eye on Q1 2026 data to see if LaunchLab’s fee growth can offset declining swap revenues as Solana’s DeFi ecosystem matures.

What are people saying about RAY?

Talk around Raydium (RAY) is swinging between hopes for a price jump and worries about a drop. Here’s what’s trending:

1. $4 price target – Some analysts see a chance for a price rebound if RAY stays above key support levels.
2. "Blue box" correction – According to Elliott Wave theory, a strong upward move (Wave III) might be coming soon.
3. $1.50 crash risk – Others warn that if RAY can’t break through resistance, it could fall sharply.

Deep Dive

1. @ElliottForecast: Wave III Setup Brewing 🟢

"Price is nearing an important support area – if buyers hold $3.30, Wave III could push gains over 50%."
– @ElliottForecast (37.3K followers · 12K impressions · 2025-09-03 03:32 UTC)
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What this means: This is a positive sign for Raydium. The Elliott Wave pattern suggests the price might bounce back strongly if it stays above $3.30.

2. @ali_charts: Rejection Risks 60% Collapse 🔴

"If Raydium fails to break above $3.80, it could drop back down to $1.50!"
– @ali_charts (164K followers · 28K impressions · 2025-09-02 23:02 UTC)
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What this means: This is a warning sign. If RAY can’t get past $3.80, technical indicators suggest it might fall significantly, possibly to its recent lows.

3. @Raydium: Buybacks & LaunchLab Updates ⚪

The official Raydium account hasn’t shared price predictions but highlights ongoing improvements like LaunchLab upgrades and a program that uses 12% of fees to buy back RAY tokens. These moves support the project’s long-term value.
– @Raydium (448K followers · 15K avg. impressions · Multiple 2025 posts)

Conclusion

Opinions on Raydium are mixed. Some technical analysts expect a rebound, while others warn of further declines. Raydium’s price has dropped nearly 50% over the past 60 days, and Bitcoin’s strong market position (59.13% dominance) is putting pressure on smaller coins like RAY. Keep an eye on the $3.50 resistance and $1.50 support levels—breaking either could set the direction for Raydium’s next big move.

What is the latest news about RAY?

Raydium is navigating the challenges following the recent bear market by focusing on liquidity, technical price rebounds, and expanding its ecosystem connections. Here are the key updates:

1. Steady Through Market Downturn (Dec 24, 2025) – Raydium stands out for maintaining strong liquidity despite a slowdown in Solana’s decentralized finance (DeFi) activity.
2. Price Outlook Shows Cautious Optimism (Dec 23, 2025) – Technical indicators suggest Raydium’s price could rebound to around $1.85 by 2026.
3. Solana-NEAR Integration Enhances Cross-Chain Use (Dec 18, 2025) – This new connection boosts Raydium’s role in multi-chain DeFi applications.

In-Depth Look

1. Steady Through Market Downturn (December 24, 2025)

Summary:
According to a CryptoNewsLand report, Raydium is recognized as a key player in decentralized liquidity. Even though Solana’s total value locked (TVL) in DeFi has dropped to $8.67 billion—a six-month low—Raydium continues to provide essential liquidity for token launches and swaps on the Solana network.

What this means:
This is a neutral sign for Raydium. While the overall Solana ecosystem is cooling off, Raydium’s infrastructure remains important and could benefit if activity picks back up. Keep an eye on TVL improvements and increased trading volume, especially from popular tokens like memecoins.

2. Price Outlook Shows Cautious Optimism (December 23, 2025)

Summary:
A CoinMarketCap analysis points out that Raydium’s price is stabilizing around $0.89. Technical signals like Bollinger Bands tightening and a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 42 suggest a possible short-term price bounce. If Raydium’s price breaks above $0.95, it could trigger a rally of about 35%, pushing the price to $1.20.

What this means:
This outlook is cautiously positive. Although market momentum is still weak, Raydium’s price is closely tied to Solana’s performance, which has fallen 52% since its peak in September. Watch the $0.95 price level as a key resistance point that could signal a stronger recovery.

3. Solana-NEAR Integration Enhances Cross-Chain Use (December 18, 2025)

Summary:
Raydium now supports assets from the NEAR Protocol through Solana bridges, allowing users to trade wrapped NEAR tokens (wNEAR) and participate in liquidity pools. This integration expands Raydium’s capabilities in cross-chain decentralized finance, although its success depends on how well NEAR gains traction.

What this means:
This is a positive long-term development. Cross-chain compatibility could bring new users and increase activity on Raydium. However, the immediate impact might be limited due to the overall decline in Solana’s TVL. Monitor wNEAR trading volumes on Raydium to gauge momentum.

Conclusion

Raydium’s recent updates show a mix of technical stabilization, ecosystem growth, and ongoing market challenges. Its role as a liquidity provider remains crucial for Solana, but Raydium’s future depends on the broader market recovering and Solana’s ability to revive DeFi activity. The big question is: Will the NEAR integration lead to noticeable growth in trading volume, or will Raydium’s performance continue to be tied closely to Solana’s market swings?

What is expected in the development of RAY?

Raydium is moving forward with key updates planned for 2026:

1. Expanding the Rewards Program (Q1 2026) – Encouraging more traders and creators to use the platform.
2. Speeding Up Launchpad Activity (2026) – Making it easier and faster to launch new tokens.
3. Adjusting Fee Structure (First Half of 2026) – Tweaking trading fees to keep the platform competitive and liquid.

In-Depth Look

1. Expanding the Rewards Program (Q1 2026)

What’s happening: Raydium currently offers rewards to traders and creators to keep them engaged. In July 2025, the price of RAY rose by 21%, showing positive market response to these efforts. Expanding this program could bring more users to Raydium’s swapping and liquidity services.
Why it matters: More users usually mean more trading volume and higher fees collected by the platform. These fees help fund daily buybacks of RAY tokens, which currently provide about a 6% annual return. This is a positive sign for RAY holders.

2. Speeding Up Launchpad Activity (2026)

What’s happening: Raydium’s LaunchLab has successfully launched over 35,000 tokens, including WAVE, which reached its funding goal quickly in July 2025. The platform plans to improve its bonding curve system to onboard new projects faster. However, only a small percentage (0.62%) of these tokens move on to full liquidity pools.
Why it matters: More token launches can increase platform fees, but the low graduation rate suggests many projects might be speculative or short-lived. Raydium faces competition from other platforms like Pump.fun, which holds a large share of the Solana memecoin market. This makes the outlook cautiously optimistic.

3. Adjusting Fee Structure (First Half of 2026)

What’s happening: Raydium is experimenting with trade fees, such as charging 1.25% on newer tokens, to find the right balance between attracting traders and maintaining healthy liquidity. Compared to competitors like Uniswap V4, Raydium’s liquidity turnover is lower (0.13 vs. 0.41), indicating less active trading.
Why it matters: Setting fees too low might bring more trades but reduce revenue per trade. Setting them too high could push users to other platforms. Finding the right fee level is crucial for Raydium’s long-term success.

Conclusion

Raydium’s future growth depends on successfully expanding rewards and launchpad features while managing challenges like regulatory limits (27% of the crypto market cap comes from restricted regions) and liquidity depth. Whether upgrades in the Solana ecosystem can help Raydium stay competitive in 2026 remains to be seen.

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What updates are there in the RAY code base?

Raydium’s latest updates focus on improving liquidity efficiency and providing better tools for creators.

1. Hybrid Liquidity Model (July 2025) – Combines AMM pools with OpenBook order books for deeper liquidity.
2. LaunchLab Fee Structure (August 2025) – Offers enhanced SOL-based rewards to creators.
3. Orb Explorer Integration (November 2025) – Adds real-time trading analytics for users.

In-Depth Look

1. Hybrid Liquidity Model (July 2025)

What it is: Raydium’s V3 Beta introduced a new system that merges Automated Market Maker (AMM) pools with OpenBook’s decentralized order book. This change increased the available liquidity by about 40% across Solana’s decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem.

Liquidity providers can now set specific price ranges for their trades while pooling orders from different sources to reduce slippage (the difference between expected and actual trade prices). The smart contracts were updated to allow sharing liquidity across platforms without requiring existing liquidity providers to take any action, thanks to backward-compatible wrapper contracts.

Why it matters: More liquidity means lower trading costs and higher trading volumes. This benefits Raydium because 12% of the protocol fees go toward buying back RAY tokens, which can support the token’s value.

(Source)

2. LaunchLab Fee Structure (August 2025)

What it is: LaunchLab now pays creators between 0.05% and 0.10% of trading fees in SOL (Solana’s native token) after its recent update. It also supports Token22, which allows for advanced token features like transfer fees.

This update simplifies how fees are distributed by paying creators directly in SOL instead of LP tokens, making the process easier to understand. It also introduced the option for projects to split rewards between their own token and SOL.

Why it matters: This change is neutral for RAY holders. While it encourages more projects to launch on Raydium, which could increase platform activity, it also means some fee revenue is shared with creators instead of going entirely to RAY stakers.

(Source)

3. Orb Explorer Integration (November 2025)

What it is: Raydium integrated Orb Explorer, a tool that provides real-time insights into liquidity depth, price impact, and large trader (whale) activity.

Using on-chain data, Orb Explorer visualizes order book movements and historical slippage patterns, helping traders make smarter decisions about when to enter or exit trades. The system was enhanced with fast data pipelines to deliver instant updates.

Why it matters: This is positive for RAY because better transparency and analytics can attract algorithmic traders, increasing trading volume and protocol fee income.

(Source)

Conclusion

Raydium’s recent improvements focus on deepening liquidity, rewarding creators, and providing better tools for traders—key factors in maintaining its position as Solana’s main liquidity provider. With the new hybrid liquidity model and Orb Explorer’s analytics, RAY has a strong chance to benefit from Solana’s growth and potentially reverse its recent 49.85% price decline over the past 60 days.