Why did the price of GRT fall?

The Graph (GRT) dropped 2.09% in the last 24 hours, underperforming the overall crypto market, which fell by 0.33%. Here are the main reasons:

1. Technical Weakness – The price is below important moving averages.
2. Sector Rotation – Investors are favoring Bitcoin over alternative coins right now.
3. Competitive Pressures – New data protocols are challenging GRT’s leading position.
4. DePIN/AI Cooling – Profit-taking is happening in related sectors.

Deep Dive

1. Technical Breakdown (Bearish Impact)

Overview: GRT is currently trading at $0.0651, which is below its 30-day simple moving average (SMA) of $0.073 and its 200-day SMA of $0.091. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) over 14 days is 43.35, indicating neutral momentum but no strong signs of being oversold.

What this means: Staying below the 30-day SMA suggests sellers are controlling the short-term price. The fact that the price is 29% below the 200-day SMA points to a longer-term downward trend. Trading volume is low ($26.5 million in 24 hours), showing weak buying interest.

Key level: If GRT can close above $0.073 (the 30-day SMA), it might signal a price reversal. If not, it could retest the June lows near $0.05.

2. Altcoin Sentiment Shift (Mixed Impact)

Overview: Bitcoin’s market dominance increased to 59.06% (up 0.17% in 24 hours), while the Altcoin Season Index dropped to 28, indicating a strong preference for Bitcoin over altcoins.

What this means: Investors are moving money from mid-sized altcoins like GRT into Bitcoin due to uncertainty in the broader market. GRT’s 30-day return of -19.62% is close to the average altcoin loss of -18.3% (source: CoinGlass), showing this is more about overall market trends than GRT-specific problems.

3. Competitive Threats Emerge (Bearish Impact)

Overview: Competitors like Covalent (CXT) and SubQuery are gaining ground in decentralized data indexing. Covalent processed over 17 billion API calls in Q2 2025, compared to The Graph’s 11.8 billion.

What this means: GRT is facing pressure as new players offer faster and cheaper data solutions. Although GRT was the first mover in this space, its nearly 36% drop over the past 90 days suggests investors are questioning how well it can maintain its lead against these new competitors.

Conclusion

The recent decline in GRT reflects technical challenges, a shift in investor focus toward Bitcoin, and growing competition. However, The Graph’s core role in indexing data for Web3 remains important. Key level to watch: Can GRT hold the $0.064 Fibonacci support (which is the 50% retracement of its 2025 price range) to avoid a deeper drop?

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What could affect the price of GRT?

The Graph is at an important point in the evolving web3 space, with several key developments on the horizon:

1. AI & Cross-Chain Integration – New AI tools and multi-chain staking through Chainlink CCIP (expected July 2025) could boost its usefulness.
2. Regulatory Developments – U.S. policies recognizing "network tokens" (August 2025) might lower regulatory risks.
3. Competition – Rivals like SubQuery are expanding multi-chain indexing, challenging The Graph’s leading position.

Deep Dive

1. AI & Cross-Chain Expansion (Positive Outlook)

Overview: In July 2025, The Graph launched several upgrades including MCP (AI data connectors), Hypergraph for encrypted apps, and cross-chain GRT transfers via Chainlink CCIP. They are also working on SQL-powered data engines to make complex data queries easier. Integration with Solana through Substreams has cut indexing delays by 10 times.

What this means: These improvements tackle common developer issues like slow data access and fragmented information. They also position GRT as a key resource for decentralized apps and AI tools. If adoption grows, this could increase demand for query fees and staking, reducing the available supply of GRT tokens. Currently, 10.56 billion of the total 11.38 billion GRT tokens are in circulation (The Graph).

2. Regulatory Recognition (Mixed Impact)

Overview: A White House report in August 2025 classified GRT as a “network token” rather than a security, recognizing its role in decentralized infrastructure. However, the SEC continues to scrutinize tokens linked to AI, creating some uncertainty.

What this means: This clearer classification lowers the risk of GRT being removed from U.S. exchanges, where 38% of its trading volume happens. On the flip side, The Graph’s inclusion in Grayscale’s Decentralized AI Fund (which holds 6.2% GRT) connects it to a sector facing increased regulatory attention, which could lead to more price volatility.

3. Market Share Threats (Potential Risks)

Overview: SubQuery’s July 2025 launch of multichain indexing across 300+ networks and AI tools directly compete with The Graph’s services. Meanwhile, The Graph’s dominance in the decentralized physical infrastructure network (DePIN) sector has dropped to 6th place, with a $1.93 billion market cap compared to ICP’s $4.3 billion.

What this means: Although The Graph still handles 11.8 billion queries per quarter (Messari), losing developer support could reduce its 63% share of the blockchain indexing market. Price risks increase if competitors gain traction on emerging blockchains like Monad or Sonic.

Conclusion

The Graph’s future price depends on successfully rolling out its AI features while fending off nimble competitors. Keep an eye on the progress of CCIP integration in Q4 2025—if cross-chain staking works well, it could unlock $220 million in currently isolated GRT liquidity. The key question is whether The Graph’s early lead will outweigh its slower adoption of Layer 2 solutions compared to newer rivals.

What are people saying about GRT?

The Graph’s community is divided between optimism about its growing infrastructure and concerns over its recent price trends. Here’s what’s happening:

1. Developers are excited about cross-chain growth thanks to Chainlink integration.
2. Traders are watching $0.09 as a crucial support level for the price.
3. Competitors like SubQuery are subtly challenging The Graph’s market reach.

Deep Dive

1. @graphprotocol: Cross-Chain Growth Gains Momentum (Positive Outlook)

“GRT will expand across multiple blockchains through Chainlink CCIP, allowing staking on Arbitrum, Base, and Solana.”
– @graphprotocol (283K followers · 12.4K impressions · July 11, 2025)
View original post
What this means: The integration with Chainlink’s Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol (CCIP) in May 2025 lets The Graph’s token (GRT) work across different blockchain networks like Solana and Ethereum Layer 2 solutions. This expansion could boost its usefulness as developers build applications that operate on multiple blockchains. Supporting over 90 blockchains could increase demand for query fees, which are payments made when accessing data through The Graph’s network.

2. @johnmorganFL: Competition in Analytics Tokens (Neutral)

“GRT’s query volume reached 11 billion in Q2, but Arkham’s intel-to-earn model is challenging its dominance.”
– @johnmorganFL (89K followers · 7.2K impressions · July 16, 2025)
View original post
What this means: The Graph remains a leader in indexing blockchain data with over 168,000 delegators supporting the network. However, newer projects like Arkham (ARKM) are gaining attention with innovative models that reward users for providing intelligence, creating competition in the blockchain analytics space.

3. CoinMarketCap Analysis: Signs of Price Weakness (Cautious Outlook)

“If GRT fails to hold $0.09, it could drop to $0.089; momentum indicators show uncertainty.”
– CoinMarketCap Community Post (19.1K views · August 19, 2025)
What this means: Even though trading volume increased by 34% in the past month, GRT’s price has dropped nearly 35% over the last 90 days. The price range between $0.08 and $0.09 has seen most of the trading activity this year, making it a key level for traders’ confidence. Falling below $0.09 could lead to more selling pressure.

Conclusion

Opinions on The Graph (GRT) are mixed. On one hand, its expanding ability to work across multiple blockchains is a positive sign, supported by a 30% increase in new subgraph deployments in the third quarter. On the other hand, the price shows weakness, with technical indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 42.1, suggesting limited buying momentum. The $0.09 price level is critical—if GRT stays above it, it may attract buyers who believe in the project’s long-term potential. But if it falls below, it could trigger more selling as traders exit positions.

What is the latest news about GRT?

The Graph is making strides in gaining support from big institutions and integrating with AI technologies, all while strengthening its role in decentralized networks. Here are the key updates:

1. Grayscale Adds GRT to AI Fund (October 9, 2025) – More institutional interest as GRT becomes part of Grayscale’s Decentralized AI Fund.
2. SEC Supports DePIN Projects (September 30, 2025) – Clearer regulations help GRT’s use in decentralized infrastructure.
3. Hypergraph & Solana Integration (July 11, 2025) – Technical improvements boost data indexing speed and cross-chain compatibility for AI and decentralized finance (DeFi).

In-Depth Look

1. Grayscale Adds GRT to AI Fund (October 9, 2025)

What happened: Grayscale updated its Decentralized AI Fund by adding Story (IP) and keeping GRT, which now makes up 6.2% of the fund. The fund also includes other projects like NEAR, Bittensor, Render, and Filecoin, showing growing institutional interest in AI and blockchain combined.
Why it matters: Being part of a regulated investment fund like Grayscale’s signals that GRT is becoming recognized as a valuable asset in AI and data infrastructure. However, since GRT’s share is smaller compared to NEAR (25.8%) and Bittensor (22.1%), it’s seen more as a supporting player rather than a leading AI token.
(Crypto.News)

2. SEC Supports DePIN Projects (September 30, 2025)

What happened: SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce publicly supported DePIN tokens like GRT, classifying them as utility tokens rather than securities. This is because they help reward people who contribute to decentralized physical infrastructure networks.
Why it matters: This reduces legal risks for GRT, which powers The Graph’s decentralized data indexing system. The SEC’s no-action letter for a similar project, DoubleZero, sets a positive example for GRT’s role in compensating network participants without falling under strict securities laws.
(CoinGape)

3. Hypergraph & Solana Integration (July 11, 2025)

What happened: The Graph introduced Hypergraph, a privacy-focused app framework, and expanded its Substreams technology to the Solana blockchain, making data indexing up to 10 times faster. They also launched GRC-20, a new data standard, along with AI query tools.
Why it matters: Connecting with Solana opens up new opportunities for GRT in fast blockchain environments. The new AI tools help meet the growing demand for on-chain data by AI systems. Still, GRT faces competition from centralized data platforms like Dune Analytics.
(The Graph)

Conclusion

The Graph is gaining momentum with institutional investors and benefiting from clearer regulations, while also improving its technology for AI and cross-chain use. Although GRT’s price is still about 80% below its peak in 2024, its important role in decentralized infrastructure and AI could spark renewed interest. The big question is whether increased developer activity on Solana will lead to lasting growth in GRT’s use after integration.

What is expected in the development of GRT?

The Graph is making important progress with these key updates:

1. Cross-Chain Staking with CCIP (Q4 2025) – Allowing GRT holders to stake their tokens on Solana, Arbitrum, and Base networks.
2. SQL-Powered Data Engines (2026) – Introducing faster, enterprise-friendly tools that let users query blockchain data using familiar SQL commands.
3. Natural Language Graph Assistant (Beta Q1 2026) – An AI tool that lets users ask questions about blockchain data in plain English, no coding needed.

Deep Dive

1. Cross-Chain Staking with CCIP (Q4 2025)

Overview: The Graph is working with Chainlink’s Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol (CCIP) to let GRT tokens move and be staked across different blockchains like Solana, Arbitrum, and Base. This expands GRT’s reach beyond Ethereum and makes it more useful across multiple networks (The Graph, July 2025).
What this means: This is a positive development for GRT because it could attract developers from other blockchain communities, increasing demand for GRT as both a staking and transaction fee token. However, there is a risk of delays in building the necessary technology to connect these networks.

2. SQL-Powered Data Engines (2026)

Overview: The Graph plans to upgrade its system to support SQL, a widely used database language. This will let developers and businesses query blockchain data more easily, using tools they already know.
What this means: This could help The Graph reach a broader audience beyond just crypto experts, making it more appealing to enterprises. The success of this depends on how smoothly users can switch from the current GraphQL system to the new SQL-based one.

3. Natural Language Graph Assistant (Beta Q1 2026)

Overview: The Graph is developing an AI-powered assistant that allows users to ask questions about blockchain data—like wallet balances or NFT ownership—in everyday language, without needing to write code (The Graph, July 2025).
What this means: This could make blockchain data more accessible to the general public, boosting GRT’s use. However, the tool’s success will depend on how accurate and fast the AI is. Competitors such as Dune AI and Goldsky are also working on similar solutions.

Conclusion

The Graph is focusing on making its platform work across multiple blockchains, improving tools for businesses, and using AI to make blockchain data easier to access. While there are technical challenges ahead, these upgrades meet the growing need for decentralized data services. The big question is how quickly GRT can benefit from these multi-chain and AI-driven opportunities.

What updates are there in the GRT code base?

The Graph’s software has received major updates that improve access to data across multiple blockchains and enhance cross-chain features.

1. Token API Beta Release 4 (July 11, 2025) – Added support for Solana SPL tokens, Avalanche NFTs and tokens, plus pricing data from Uniswap V4.
2. Hypergraph Launch (July 11, 2025) – Introduced privacy-focused apps and a new GRC-20 standard for sharing data across blockchains.
3. Chainlink CCIP Integration (May 23, 2025) – Enabled GRT to be transferred and staked across Solana, Arbitrum, and Base blockchains.

Deep Dive

1. Token API Beta Release 4 (July 11, 2025)

Overview: This update expands data access across multiple blockchains, making it easier for developers to build apps focused on tokens.
It adds support for Solana’s SPL tokens (covering transfers, swaps, and balances), full data on Avalanche NFTs and tokens, and price data from Uniswap V4. Developers can now create portfolio trackers or analytics tools without juggling multiple data sources. The Managed Chain Provider (MCP) outputs were also standardized for consistency.

What this means:
This is positive for GRT because it lowers the technical barriers for Solana developers to use The Graph’s tools, which could increase the number of data queries. The improved pricing data may also attract decentralized finance (DeFi) projects that need real-time analytics.
(Source)

2. Hypergraph Launch (July 11, 2025)

Overview: Hypergraph is a new privacy-first framework that uses local encryption and allows data to be combined across blockchains.
It introduces the GRC-20 standard, which connects wallets, content, and reputation across different chains. It supports offline app features (like health apps) and AI-powered queries through MCP servers. Substreams now index Solana data 10 times faster, reducing the need for expensive RPC calls.

What this means:
This update is somewhat positive for GRT. The privacy features open up new use cases for businesses, but success depends on developers moving their existing data projects (subgraphs) to the new Hypergraph system.
(Source)

3. Chainlink CCIP Integration (May 23, 2025)

Overview: This integration allows GRT tokens to be transferred across Solana, Arbitrum, and Base blockchains.
It enables GRT to be used for staking, delegation, and paying query fees on these chains. Solana developers can now pay fees in GRT, aligning incentives across different blockchain ecosystems.

What this means:
This is a positive development for GRT because it increases its usefulness across multiple blockchains. However, full benefits depend on the successful rollout of The Graph’s bridging technology, which carries some execution risk.
(Source)

Conclusion

The Graph is focusing on making its platform work seamlessly across multiple blockchains (especially with Solana) and preparing its data infrastructure for AI applications (with Hypergraph). These updates position GRT as a key technology for cross-chain decentralized apps. Going forward, it will be important to watch how quickly Solana developers adopt The Graph’s new tools and how query and staking activity evolve after the Chainlink CCIP integration.