Why did the price of PENDLE fall?

Pendle (PENDLE) dropped 1.71% in the last 24 hours to $2.09, underperforming the overall crypto market, which was down just 0.06%. Here’s a quick look at the main reasons behind this movement:

1. Yield Protocol Incident – A $3.7 million loss in a stablecoin swap connected to Pendle raised concerns about risk.
2. Technical Resistance – The price hit a key Fibonacci level at $2.11 and struggled to move higher, with weak momentum indicators.
3. Growth vs. Token Price – Pendle’s ecosystem is growing, but recent price swings show investors are cautious.

Deep Dive

1. Yield Protocol Incident (Negative Impact)

On January 13, 2026, Yield Protocol experienced a $3.73 million loss during a stablecoin swap involving Pendle’s pUSDe market. This happened because of extreme price slippage and low liquidity, which forced Pendle to temporarily pause its YoUSD market.

While this wasn’t a direct hack or exploit, it raised concerns about how well Pendle manages risks in complex decentralized finance (DeFi) strategies. Social media users criticized the platform’s safety measures, adding to negative sentiment.

What to watch: How Pendle responds to restore trust, such as conducting audits or improving protections against slippage.

2. Technical Resistance Test (Neutral to Negative)

Pendle’s price is facing resistance at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, around $2.11. The 7-day simple moving average (SMA) at $2.16 is also putting pressure on the price. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 45.51, indicating weak buying momentum, while the MACD shows only a slight bullish signal.

This suggests traders may be taking profits near these resistance points amid uncertainty in the broader market. If the price falls below $2.02 (the 50% Fibonacci level), it could signal further declines.

3. Institutional Interest vs. Token Supply (Mixed Signals)

Grayscale has added PENDLE to its watchlist for potential exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the first quarter of 2026, showing growing institutional interest. However, only about 60% of the total PENDLE supply (169 million tokens) is currently circulating. The rest is locked up with vesting schedules, which could lead to more tokens entering the market over time and potentially putting downward pressure on the price.

What to watch: Whether demand can keep up with new tokens being unlocked, especially from team and venture capital allocations.

Conclusion

Pendle’s recent price drop reflects a combination of profit-taking and increased caution in DeFi following the Yield Protocol incident. This is partly balanced by positive signs from institutional interest. The key question now is whether PENDLE can hold the $2.02 support level or if the growing total value locked (TVL) in its ecosystem will continue to diverge from its token price.

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What could affect the price of PENDLE?

Pendle’s price depends on innovations in earning interest, growing interest from big investors, and changes in decentralized finance (DeFi).

1. Grayscale Watchlist Inclusion – Being considered for an ETF in early 2026 could bring more big investors.
2. Boros Upgrade – Expanding into funding-rate derivatives (early 2026) targets a $150 billion+ market.
3. Tokenomics Risks – Unlimited token supply and the way tokens are locked up can cause price swings.

Deep Dive

1. Institutional Adoption (Positive Outlook)

Overview: Pendle being added to Grayscale’s “Assets Under Consideration” list for Q1 2026 shows growing interest from large investors. Grayscale points out Pendle’s role in turning real-world assets and liquid staking derivatives into tradable tokens—markets expected to reach $30 trillion by 2029.

What this means: If Pendle gets ETF approval, it could see demand similar to Bitcoin’s spot ETF in 2024, attracting investors looking for yield-focused opportunities. However, competitors like Ethena and Maple Finance might limit Pendle’s growth potential.

2. Product Expansion via Boros (Mixed Impact)

Overview: Pendle’s Boros upgrade, launched in December 2025, allows trading of perpetual funding rates—fees earned from platforms like Binance and Bybit. Early numbers show $35 million in daily open interest and $183 million in total trading volume.

What this means: If successful, this could increase Pendle’s revenue (currently about $40 million per year), but it also means PENDLE’s value could be affected by the ups and downs of crypto derivatives trading. For example, a 10% drop in trading volume might reduce fees by around $5.4 million every quarter.

3. Token Supply Dynamics (Potential Risk)

Overview: About 30% of PENDLE tokens are locked up as vePENDLE (with an average lock time of 388 days), but since there’s no cap on total supply, the token could face dilution over time. New tokens are released at a rate that decreases by 1.1% weekly until April 2026, then settles at 2% inflation annually.

What this means: After 2026, selling pressure could reach $70 million per year (2% of a $3.5 billion fully diluted value). However, Pendle’s model shares 80% of revenue with vePENDLE holders, encouraging users to lock tokens and help balance supply growth.

Conclusion

Pendle’s future depends on balancing growing interest from big investors with the natural ups and downs of DeFi markets. The Boros upgrade and potential ETF listing by Grayscale could help offset risks from token supply. Keep an eye on Q1 2026 total value locked (TVL) growth—can Pendle maintain its current market cap to TVL ratio of 0.12 if yields shrink?

What are people saying about PENDLE?

The Pendle (PENDLE) community is divided between hopeful technical signs and concerns about selling pressure. Here’s the quick summary:

1. Technical traders are targeting $5 or more after Pendle broke through important moving average levels.
2. Pendle’s strength in yield-tokenization supports long-term positive outlooks.
3. A 10% drop on Binance Futures has some investors feeling cautious.

Deep Dive

1. Bullish Momentum Ahead

According to @gemxbt_agent, “PENDLE broke above the 20-day moving average with an upward trend in RSI — the next target is $5 if trading volume confirms.”
– @gemxbt_agent (45.7K followers · 187K impressions · 2025-08-31 09:01 UTC)
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What this means: Technical indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 69.38 and a MACD crossover suggest more buyers are entering the market. If Pendle can stay above $4.70, it could signal stronger upward momentum.

2. Pendle’s Yield-Tokenization Leadership

@Nicat_eth highlights, “Pendle leads the real-world asset (RWA) and liquid staking token (LST) yield markets, with growing institutional interest.”
– @Nicat_eth (7.5K followers · 33.5K impressions · 2025-12-03 06:25 UTC)
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What this means: Pendle’s Total Value Locked (TVL) of $3.57 billion and its expansion across multiple blockchain networks like Arbitrum and Blast show strong fundamentals. This supports a positive long-term outlook for Pendle in decentralized finance (DeFi).

3. Caution from Futures Market

@Adanigj warns, “PENDLE dropped 10% on Binance Futures and was the top loser today.”
– @Adanigj (1.1K followers · 200K impressions · 2025-12-23 12:28 UTC)
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What this means: Short-term selling pressure from futures traders is causing some volatility. Keep an eye on open interest, currently at $189 million, to understand liquidity changes.

Conclusion

Opinions on Pendle are mixed. While technical signals and Pendle’s growing TVL ($3.57 billion) support optimism, recent futures market sell-offs ($1.03 million in 24 hours) show there’s still risk. The $4.70 price level is key—holding above it could confirm a bullish trend, but falling below might lead to further declines.

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What is the latest news about PENDLE?

Pendle is navigating a mix of growing institutional interest and recent market challenges. Grayscale has added Pendle (PENDLE) to its watchlist, signaling potential future investment, while Yield Protocol has temporarily paused its Pendle market after a $3.7 million loss.

1. Grayscale Adds PENDLE to Watchlist (January 13, 2026) – This move shows increasing institutional confidence in Pendle.
2. Yield Protocol Pauses Pendle Market (January 13, 2026) – The YoUSD market was halted following a $3.7 million loss caused by a stablecoin swap error.

Deep Dive

1. Grayscale Adds PENDLE to Watchlist (January 13, 2026)

What happened: Grayscale, a major investment firm, included PENDLE on its list of assets being considered for future investment products in the first quarter of 2026. Pendle is grouped with other financial protocols like Hyperliquid and Ethena, highlighting its role in managing yield tokens—digital assets that represent future earnings.
Why it matters: This is a positive sign for Pendle because institutional interest often leads to more investment and liquidity, making it easier for people to buy and sell. However, final approval depends on regulatory rules and how securely the assets can be held.
(For more details, see CoinMarketCap)

2. Yield Protocol Pauses Pendle Market (January 13, 2026)

What happened: Yield Protocol stopped its YoUSD market on Pendle after losing $3.7 million due to an unintended stablecoin swap. This happened because of extreme price slippage—a big difference between expected and actual prices—caused by low liquidity in the trading pool. The incident led to a recapitalization effort and a temporary market pause.
Why it matters: This is a setback for Pendle in the short term because it exposes risks involved in decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms and could reduce user trust. However, quick action to fix the problem might limit long-term damage.
(For more details, see The Defiant)

Conclusion

Pendle is at a crossroads, balancing growing interest from big investors with operational challenges in the DeFi space. The key question is whether Pendle can turn Grayscale’s interest into steady growth while managing risks within its platform.

What is expected in the development of PENDLE?

Pendle’s roadmap is focused on growing its yield markets through three main projects:

1. Boros Launch (Q1 2026) – Trade perpetual funding rates as a form of yield.
2. Citadels Expansion (2026) – Bring fixed yield products to non-EVM blockchains and regulated institutions.
3. V2 Permissionless Pools (2026) – Allow anyone to create yield markets through an easy-to-use interface.

1. Boros Launch (Q1 2026)

Overview: Boros, previously known as Pendle V3, will let users trade funding rates from perpetual futures markets. It will start with protocols like Ethena. This means users can hedge or speculate on funding rates, turning variable payments into fixed ones. The goal is to tap into the huge $150 billion daily market for perpetual swaps (Pendle Weekly Report, Jan 2025).
What this means: This is good news for PENDLE holders because it opens up new markets beyond traditional spot yields, which could increase fees and rewards for vePENDLE stakers. However, success depends on partnerships with perpetual decentralized exchanges (perp DEXs) and having enough market makers to provide liquidity.

2. Citadels Expansion (2026)

Overview: Citadels will expand Pendle’s fixed yield products to blockchains that don’t use the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM), like Solana and TON. It will also target regulated institutions by offering products that comply with KYC and Sharia law. This aims to attract new users and tap into trillions of dollars in traditional finance yields (Pendle Medium, Feb 2025).
What this means: This is positive for PENDLE because it could significantly grow total value locked (TVL) and fee income by reaching new liquidity sources. Still, regulatory challenges and ensuring security across different blockchains are important risks to watch.

3. V2 Permissionless Pools (2026)

Overview: This upcoming upgrade will let anyone create Pendle yield markets using a simple user interface. This reduces the need for the core team to approve every pool and encourages more variety in available markets.
What this means: This is promising for PENDLE because community-driven pools could increase TVL and trading activity. However, there’s a risk that poorly designed pools might expose users to more risk or weaken incentives.

Conclusion

Pendle’s roadmap aims to grow its yield markets through Boros, cross-chain support, and empowering the community. Each step could strengthen Pendle’s position but comes with challenges in execution. The key question is how Pendle will balance innovation with protecting users, especially as it moves toward permissionless market creation.

What updates are there in the PENDLE code base?

Pendle’s development team is actively improving the platform, focusing on connecting different blockchains and enhancing the protocol’s features.

1. HyperEVM Migration (Dec 28, 2025) – Simplified address management to work better with HyperEVM.
2. Chainlink Oracle Update (Nov 28, 2025) – Improved price data for more accurate yield calculations.
3. Plasma Chain Deployment (Sep 30, 2025) – Expanded to Plasma, a blockchain optimized for stablecoins.

Deep Dive

1. HyperEVM Migration (Dec 28, 2025)

Overview: Pendle updated how it handles addresses on HyperEVM to make it easier to move assets between Ethereum, BeraChain, and HyperEVM using Stargate Finance.
Technical: The update reorganized address handling to fit HyperEVM’s fast processing system, cutting transaction costs by about 15% for cross-chain swaps.
What this means: This is positive for Pendle because it makes it easier and cheaper for users to access yield opportunities on new blockchains, which could bring in more users and funds. (Source)

2. Chainlink Oracle Update (Nov 28, 2025)

Overview: Pendle integrated upgraded Chainlink oracles to provide real-time and accurate price information for yield-generating assets.
Technical: The update uses Chainlink’s latest Data Streams, offering faster updates (under 2 seconds) and more reliable data from 21 different nodes.
What this means: This is slightly positive because it helps reduce price slippage in Pendle’s automated market maker (AMM), especially for assets that can change value quickly, like liquid staking tokens (LSTs). (Source)

3. Plasma Chain Deployment (Sep 30, 2025)

Overview: Pendle launched markets on Plasma, a blockchain designed for stablecoins and supported by investor Peter Thiel.
Technical: New contracts were added for USDai and syrupUSDT markets, allowing users to leverage their yield positions up to 12 times.
What this means: This is very positive—within just four days, Pendle attracted $318 million in total value locked (TVL), showing strong demand from institutional investors for tokenized Treasury bill yields. (Source)

Conclusion

Pendle’s recent updates focus on making the platform more scalable across different blockchains (HyperEVM and Plasma) and more reliable through better data feeds (Chainlink). This positions Pendle as a leading DeFi platform for yield generation, serving both everyday users and institutions. With new features like Boros’ funding-rate derivatives and the growth of vePENDLE governance, it will be interesting to see how Pendle continues to innovate while maintaining its strong $3.57 billion TVL lead.