Why did the price of RAY go up?
Raydium (RAY) increased by 3.38% over the past 24 hours, reaching $2.69, outperforming the overall crypto market, which rose 2.21%. Here are the main reasons behind this move:
- Technical Rebound – Oversold conditions triggered buying activity.
- LaunchLab Fee Buybacks – Daily repurchases of $110K worth of RAY reduce available supply.
- Solana DeFi Momentum – Network upgrades are driving positive market sentiment.
Deep Dive
1. Technical Rebound (Positive Influence)
Overview: On September 28, RAY’s 7-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropped to 36.71, indicating it was oversold—the lowest level since July 2025. The price bounced off a key support level at $2.50, which has historically been a strong reversal point.
What this means: Traders saw the oversold signal as a chance to buy, supported by a 31% increase in trading volume over 24 hours, reaching $31.6 million. The MACD indicator shows that bearish momentum is weakening, suggesting the selling pressure may be easing.
What to watch: If the price closes above the 7-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2.68, it could confirm a short-term upward trend.
2. LaunchLab Fee Buybacks (Mixed Influence)
Overview: LaunchLab, Raydium’s token launch platform, collects about $900,000 in fees daily. Since August 2025, 12% of these fees—around $110,000 each day—have been used to buy back RAY tokens, removing roughly 41,000 tokens from circulation daily.
What this means: These buybacks help support the token’s price by reducing supply, but their effect is limited given Raydium’s $722 million market cap. The annualized return from this buyback program is about 6%, which is less attractive compared to staking options like Solana, which offers 5-7%.
3. Solana Ecosystem Sentiment (Neutral Influence)
Overview: Solana’s recent Firedancer upgrade, launched in Q3 2025, aims to increase network capacity. This benefits Raydium since it’s the leading decentralized exchange (DEX) on Solana. However, competition from Aster DEX, which now handles $1 billion in daily trading volume, has taken some market share away from Raydium.
What this means: The overall growth of Solana’s DeFi ecosystem is positive for all tokens, but Raydium’s total value locked (TVL) has dropped 23% in the past month to $1.74 billion, showing pressure from competitors.
Conclusion
Raydium’s recent price rebound is driven by technical factors and a controlled reduction in token supply. However, for this momentum to last, Raydium needs to stop losing users and maintain its dominant 50% share of Solana’s DEX market.
Key level to watch: Can RAY hold above $2.77 (the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level) to aim for $3.12 (the 50% retracement level)?
What could affect the price of RAY?
Raydium’s price is caught between Solana’s network growth and increasing competition in decentralized finance (DeFi).
- LaunchLab Adoption – Fees from token launches help buy back RAY tokens, but competition is growing (Mixed Impact)
- Solana’s Network Upgrades – The upcoming Firedancer upgrade could make Raydium more useful (Bullish)
- Regulatory Barriers – Nearly 27% of the crypto market is in regions where Raydium is restricted (Bearish)
Deep Dive
1. LaunchLab Adoption & Fee Dynamics (Mixed Impact)
Overview:
Raydium’s LaunchLab platform has supported over 35,000 token launches, generating about $900,000 in daily fees as of August 2025. Part of these fees is used to buy back RAY tokens every day, which helps reduce the total supply and supports the price. However, a competitor called Pump.fun now controls 44% of Solana’s memecoin market, pulling activity away from Raydium.
What this means:
The buybacks, funded by 12% of the fees, help stabilize Raydium’s price. But lower trading activity (a turnover ratio of 0.13 compared to Uniswap’s 0.41) means the price could be more volatile. Raydium’s success depends on keeping LaunchLab’s fee growth strong despite rising competition.
2. Solana’s Firedancer Upgrade (Bullish)
Overview:
Solana plans to release the Firedancer upgrade in the third quarter of 2025, aiming to increase the network’s capacity to over 1 million transactions per second (TPS). Raydium currently handles 95% of Solana’s tokenized stock trading, putting it in a good position to benefit from this upgrade.
What this means:
With faster network speeds, more institutional projects might use Raydium’s liquidity pools. Past Solana upgrades, like the congestion fixes in 2024, helped push RAY’s price up by 40% in the following months.
3. Regulatory & Jurisdictional Limits (Bearish)
Overview:
Raydium restricts users from the U.S., U.K., and 12 other regions, which together make up 27% of the global crypto market. Recent doubts about U.S. economic data (from September 25, 2025) have increased fears about regulation, causing widespread crypto sell-offs.
What this means:
These geographic restrictions limit Raydium’s user growth. The 30-day price correlation between RAY and SOL dropped to 0.52 from 0.89 in 2024, indicating that regulatory concerns are now a bigger factor than the benefits from the Solana ecosystem.
Conclusion
Raydium’s price will depend on how well it balances buybacks funded by LaunchLab fees with Solana’s network improvements and regulatory challenges. A clear move above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $2.66 could signal renewed buying interest, while falling below $2.50 might lead to a retest of the July low at $2.10. The key question is whether Raydium’s buyback program can make up for its shrinking market share in Solana’s highly competitive decentralized exchange (DEX) space.
What are people saying about RAY?
Talk around Raydium (RAY) swings between hopes for a breakout and worries about a price drop. Here’s what’s trending:
- Elliott Wave analysis suggests a possible bullish turnaround near $2.70 support
- $3.50 resistance is a key level traders are watching for a potential 75% price jump
- FTX Japan listing boosts trading volume, but some fear a drop to $1.50
- $200 million buybacks are happening, but user activity in DeFi is slowing down
Deep Dive
1. @ElliottForecast: Bullish Wave III Setup
"Wave II correction in progress—bullish Wave III may be on deck. Price approaching blue box support zone ($2.70–$2.90)."
– @ElliottForecast (89k followers · 212k impressions · 2025-09-03 03:32 UTC)
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What this means: This is a positive sign for Raydium because Elliott Wave Theory is often used by algorithmic traders. If the price reverses near $2.70, it could trigger short-term upward momentum. This price level also matches a key support point from June’s breakout.
2. @mkbijaksana: Mixed Signals at $3.50 Resistance
"RAY trying to break resistance around 3.5. If successful, target $6.17; if rejected, watch for dump."
– @mkbijaksana (16k followers · 48k impressions · 2025-08-27 06:52 UTC)
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What this means: This is uncertain. The $3.50 level saw heavy trading in August with 17 million RAY tokens changing hands. If Raydium breaks above $3.50, it could follow June’s 14% price jump after breaking $2.10. But if it fails, the price might fall back to around $2.80.
3. @ali_charts: Bearish Warning at $3.80
"This last rejection at $3.80 could send RAY back to $1.50!"
– @ali_charts (478k followers · 2.1M impressions · 2025-09-02 23:02 UTC)
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What this means: This is a bearish outlook. The $3.80 level capped Raydium’s price gains in August, despite a strong 33% weekly increase. The warning points to a possible drop back to $1.50, Raydium’s low in 2025, but the current total value locked (TVL) of $2.33 billion suggests the project still has solid fundamentals.
4. Cryptonews: Buybacks vs. Declining User Activity
"$200M buyback removed 9.5% of 30-day volume, but active users fell 81% since December."
– Cryptonews (August 18, 2025)
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What this means: This is mixed news. The $200 million buyback reduces the number of tokens available (about 12.6% of the market cap is staked), which can support the price. However, data from DeFi Llama shows Raydium’s monthly trading volume dropped 90% to $12 billion, much lower than Uniswap’s $95 billion, and active users have declined sharply.
Conclusion
The outlook for Raydium is mixed. Technical analysis points to potential strength between $2.70 and $3.50, but concerns remain about declining DeFi activity and traders betting against the coin. Keep an eye on the $3.30–$3.50 range—a strong close above this could confirm bullish momentum, while a drop below might test June’s support near $2.10. Also, watch how LaunchLab’s upcoming 35,000 token launches might affect buybacks funded by trading fees.
What is the latest news about RAY?
Raydium is facing challenges from rising competitors and the growing popularity of memecoins. Here’s a quick update:
- Aster DEX Surpasses Raydium in Trading Volume (September 22, 2025) – Aster DEX on Solana has overtaken Raydium in daily trading volume, signaling increased competition.
- RAY Token Drops 8.10% Over the Week (September 22, 2025) – Raydium’s token price has fallen for the fourth week in a row amid volatility in the Solana ecosystem.
- New Memecoin Launches on Raydium (September 22, 2025) – A memecoin called Scamcoin saw a 600% price jump after launching on Raydium, using the platform’s infrastructure.
In-Depth Look
1. Aster DEX Surpasses Raydium in Trading Volume (September 22, 2025)
What happened:
Aster DEX ($ASTER) recently overtook Raydium in 24-hour trading volume on the Solana blockchain, reaching nearly $1 billion in daily trades. This growth is driven by Aster’s connections with other blockchains like BNB Chain, a large $114,000 USDT deposit by popular YouTuber MrBeast, and leveraged trading by well-known traders such as Ogle (@cryptogle).
Why it matters:
This shift suggests that traders and liquidity are moving toward newer platforms like Aster. Aster’s strategy of supporting multiple blockchains and attracting high-profile users shows that competition in Solana’s decentralized finance (DeFi) space is heating up. (NullTX)
2. RAY Token Drops 8.10% Over the Week (September 22, 2025)
What happened:
The price of Raydium’s token, RAY, dropped 8.10% to $3.11, marking its fourth straight week of decline. This was influenced by weak momentum indicators and a decrease in the total value locked (TVL) on the platform, even as the overall Solana DeFi market showed growth.
Why it matters:
This decline points to lower trader confidence in Raydium’s short-term prospects. While Solana’s broader altcoin market is gaining strength (with a 15.79% monthly increase), RAY’s underperformance suggests investors are shifting their focus to newer projects. (AMBCrypto)
3. New Memecoin Launches on Raydium (September 22, 2025)
What happened:
A memecoin called $SCAM launched on Raydium and quickly surged 600% in price. The coin’s “radical transparency” means all tokens are in circulation with no hidden reserves. Traders accessed $SCAM through Raydium’s SOL trading pairs, showing the platform’s role in supporting speculative tokens.
Why it matters:
This development is neutral for Raydium. It highlights the platform’s usefulness for launching viral tokens but also raises concerns that relying on highly volatile memecoins could harm Raydium’s reputation as a stable DeFi platform. (AMBCrypto)
Conclusion
Raydium is currently facing pressure from two sides: growing competition from Aster DEX and increased activity from memecoins. While Raydium remains a key player in Solana’s DeFi ecosystem, it will need upgrades or new partnerships to regain its leadership in trading volume. Otherwise, newer platforms may take the lead in the next phase of growth.
What is expected in the development of RAY?
Raydium is moving forward with key developments:
- LaunchLab Cross-Chain Expansion (Q4 2025) – Expanding token launch support to Ethereum and BNB Chain using Solana’s Firedancer upgrade.
- Dynamic Fee Structure Rollout (Q1 2026) – Introducing flexible trading fees based on liquidity and token price changes.
- Ecosystem Partnership Growth (Ongoing) – Strengthening collaborations with projects like xStocks to support tokenized stocks.
Deep Dive
1. LaunchLab Cross-Chain Expansion (Q4 2025)
Overview: Raydium plans to grow its LaunchLab platform beyond Solana by adding support for Ethereum and BNB Chain. This is made possible by Solana’s Firedancer upgrade (Solana), which improves the ability to work across different blockchains and increases transaction speed (aiming for 1 million transactions per second).
What this means: This is positive news for Raydium (RAY) because supporting multiple blockchains can attract more projects and users, increasing trading fees and liquidity. However, there is some risk if competitors like Uniswap V4 gain more users first.
2. Dynamic Fee Structure Rollout (Q1 2026)
Overview: Raydium is testing a new fee system where trading fees vary between 0.1% and 1.25%, depending on how much liquidity is available and how much the token price fluctuates. Early tests with tokens like WAVE showed a 21% weekly gain, but interest slowed after launch (CoinMarketCap Community).
What this means: This change could be good for Raydium. Lower fees on stable tokens might attract frequent traders, while higher fees on volatile tokens could discourage quick sell-offs. The key will be finding the right balance to stay competitive and profitable.
3. Ecosystem Partnership Growth (Ongoing)
Overview: Raydium is expanding its partnership with xStocks to offer liquidity pools for tokenized stocks, aiming to connect traditional finance (TradFi) with decentralized finance (DeFi). Currently, this partnership manages 95% of Solana-based equity trading (xStocks).
What this means: This is a positive development for Raydium. Bringing in institutional investors through tokenized assets could make liquidity more stable and diversify revenue beyond popular but volatile memecoins. However, regulatory challenges in some regions (covering 27% of the crypto market) could pose risks.
Conclusion
Raydium’s roadmap focuses on expanding across blockchains, introducing flexible fees, and bridging traditional finance with DeFi to strengthen its role as Solana’s top decentralized exchange. While these upgrades and partnerships offer growth opportunities, regulatory issues and strong competitors could limit progress. The big question is whether Raydium’s cross-chain efforts can outpace Ethereum’s established DeFi ecosystem by 2026.
What updates are there in the RAY code base?
Raydium’s latest updates focus on improving liquidity options and providing better tools for developers.
- V3 Beta Launch (July 8, 2025) – Combines automated market maker (AMM) pools with an order book to reduce trading costs.
- LaunchLab Fee Structure (August 20, 2025) – Introduces ongoing rewards for creators paid in SOL and supports new token standards.
Deep Dive
1. V3 Beta Launch (July 8, 2025)
Overview: Raydium’s biggest upgrade since 2024 merges OpenBook’s order book system with its existing AMM pools. This change increases the available liquidity by about 40%, meaning traders have access to more funds when buying or selling.
The update also adds Smart Order Routing, which searches multiple liquidity sources, including Serum-v2 forks, to find the best prices and reduce slippage (the difference between expected and actual trade prices). Developers can now create pools with flexible fee options using simpler tools, requiring 85% less upfront capital than before. Existing liquidity providers don’t need to take any immediate action thanks to backward compatibility.
What this means: This is positive for RAY holders because traders benefit from better pricing, and projects can attract liquidity more efficiently. This helps Raydium maintain its position as the leading decentralized exchange (DEX) on the Solana blockchain. (Source)
2. LaunchLab Fee Structure (August 20, 2025)
Overview: Creators launching tokens on Raydium can now earn a small percentage (0.05%–0.10%) of trading fees paid in SOL, the native Solana token, indefinitely. The update also supports Token22 standards, which allow features like transfer fees to be built directly into tokens.
This new fee structure supports dual-token fees and automatically reinvests earned fees back into liquidity pools, helping to grow liquidity over time.
What this means: This update is neutral for RAY in the short term. While it encourages new token launches on Raydium, competition from platforms like Pump.fun, which controls a large share of the memecoin market, could limit immediate benefits. (Source)
Conclusion
Raydium’s upgrades aim to strengthen its role as Solana’s main liquidity hub. However, success depends on how well OpenBook’s order book is adopted and how attractive LaunchLab’s fee system proves to creators. The key question is whether Raydium’s total value locked (TVL) will grow faster than other Solana-based DEXs after the V3 launch.