What could affect the price of RAY?

Raydium’s price is caught between the growth of Solana’s ecosystem and challenges from regulatory restrictions.

1. Solana DEX Competition – Increasing competition for liquidity and launchpad leadership.
2. Regulatory Barriers – 27% of the global crypto market is blocked from accessing Raydium.
3. Buyback Momentum – Over $190 million in buybacks support the token’s value.

Deep Dive

1. Solana DEX Competition (Mixed Impact)

Overview: Raydium processes about 35% of Solana’s daily decentralized exchange (DEX) volume, which totals around $3.9 billion. However, it faces strong competition from Pump.fun, which holds 44% of the memecoin market, and Coinbase’s upcoming Solana DEX integration. LaunchLab has launched over 35,000 tokens, generating $900,000 in daily fees, but Raydium’s liquidity turnover (0.13) is much lower than Uniswap’s (0.41), showing a weakness in liquidity depth.

What this means: Solana’s strong DEX activity benefits Raydium, but growing competition could split liquidity and limit growth unless LaunchLab continues to drive its impressive 60% fee growth.

2. Regulatory Constraints (Bearish Impact)

Overview: Raydium restricts users from the U.S., U.K., and 12 other countries, which together represent 27% of the global crypto market. Additionally, a $30 million Solana hack on Upbit (including Raydium tokens) led exchanges to move assets into cold storage, reducing the amount of tokens available for trading.

What this means: These geographic restrictions limit Raydium’s user base, and security measures like Upbit’s move to cold storage (Upbit cold storage shift) reduce trading activity, contributing to Raydium’s 83% drop in value over the past year.

3. Buyback Program (Bullish Impact)

Overview: Raydium uses part of its daily fees to buy back tokens, removing 3.45 million RAY (worth about $3.26 million at current prices) from circulation in July 2025 alone. Total buybacks have surpassed $190 million, providing an annualized yield of around 6% based on today’s prices.

What this means: Ongoing buybacks (supported by $900,000 daily fee income) could help stabilize the token price, especially if Solana’s upcoming Firedancer upgrade increases network activity and fee revenue.

Conclusion

Raydium’s future depends on balancing Solana’s ecosystem growth with regulatory and competitive challenges. While buybacks and new integrations offer potential upside, limited liquidity and user restrictions remain significant risks. The key question is whether LaunchLab’s fee growth can outpace the fragmentation caused by increasing competition on Solana’s DEX platforms.

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What are people saying about RAY?

Talk around Raydium (RAY) is swinging between optimism for a breakout and concerns about a potential drop. Here’s the latest:

1. Positive momentum driven by recent upgrades and large investor activity
2. Key resistance level between $3.50 and $3.80 is critical
3. Bearish outlook warns of a possible 55% decline to $1.50 if support fails

Deep Dive

1. @genius_sirenBSC: Raydium’s ecosystem growth looks promising

“RAY jumped 14.5% after the Raydium X v2 launch, FTX Japan listing, and $120 million locked in Riptide Farms.”
– @genius_sirenBSC (79.5K followers · June 19, 2025, 1:40 PM UTC)
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What this means: This is a positive sign for RAY. Lower fees and more liquidity make the platform more attractive, while big investors pulling stakes tighten the available supply.

2. @mkbijaksana: Mixed signals at $3.50 resistance

“If RAY breaks above $3.50, it could climb to $6.17; if it fails, it might fall back to recent lows.”
– @mkbijaksana (Followers N/A · August 27, 2025, 6:52 AM UTC)
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What this means: The outlook depends on whether RAY can maintain strength above Solana’s mid-2025 price levels.

3. @ali_charts: Rejection at $3.80 signals risk

“A rejection at $3.80 could lead to a 55% drop down to $1.50.”
– @ali_charts (164.3K followers · September 2, 2025, 11:02 PM UTC)
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What this means: This is a warning sign. If broader market conditions weaken Solana’s decentralized finance (DeFi) activity, selling pressure could increase sharply at this resistance level.

Conclusion

Opinions on RAY are divided. On one hand, Solana’s ecosystem growth and recent upgrades support a bullish outlook. On the other, tough competition among decentralized exchanges (DEXs) and potential failed breakouts could push prices lower. Keep an eye on the $3.30–$3.50 range—holding above this zone may signal a recovery, while falling below it could trigger a wave of sell-offs.

What is the latest news about RAY?

Raydium is making waves in Solana’s decentralized finance (DeFi) space with new partnerships and some market challenges. Here’s a quick summary of the latest developments:

1. XRP Joins Solana via Raydium (December 12, 2025) – Raydium supports cross-chain trading as XRP becomes available on Solana.
2. Coinbase Adds Solana Tokens to Its DEX (December 11, 2025) – Users can now trade Solana tokens directly through Coinbase’s built-in decentralized exchange.
3. Upbit Hack Causes $30M Loss (December 10, 2025) – A security breach affects RAY token liquidity but pushes exchanges to improve safety measures.

Detailed Overview

1. XRP Joins Solana via Raydium (December 12, 2025)

What happened: Raydium played a key role when Hex Trust introduced wrapped XRP (wXRP) on Solana using Layer Zero’s cross-chain technology. This allowed XRP to be traded on Solana-based decentralized exchanges (DEXs). Raydium hinted at this move with a mysterious tweet about “67 XRP and a dream.”
Why it matters: This is good news for Raydium (RAY) because it expands its role beyond just Solana tokens, making it a central hub for trading major cryptocurrencies across different blockchains. More cross-chain trading could increase activity and volume on Raydium, although it will face competition from Ethereum-based XRP markets.
(Source: U.Today)

2. Coinbase Adds Solana Tokens to Its DEX (December 11, 2025)

What happened: Coinbase integrated Solana tokens into its app through an embedded decentralized exchange powered by Raydium’s liquidity pools. This means users can trade Solana assets without waiting for official listings, as long as there’s enough liquidity.
Why it matters: This development is somewhat positive for RAY. It broadens Raydium’s user base and highlights its importance in Solana’s DEX ecosystem. However, details about trading fees and liquidity requirements are still unclear.
(Source: The Defiant)

3. Upbit Hack Causes $30M Loss (December 10, 2025)

What happened: Upbit, a major crypto exchange, suffered a $30 million hack targeting its Solana hot wallet, affecting RAY, ORCA, and JUP tokens. In response, Upbit moved 99% of its assets to cold storage (offline wallets) to improve security, which temporarily reduced available liquidity.
Why it matters: This is a short-term negative for RAY because less liquidity means less trading activity. After the news, RAY’s price dropped about 8.65% within 24 hours but later stabilized around $0.94. In the long run, this incident pushes exchanges to strengthen security, which is positive for the market’s health.
(Source: Cryptonews)

Conclusion

Raydium continues to be a key player in Solana’s DeFi growth, balancing new cross-chain opportunities like XRP integration with challenges from exchange security and liquidity shifts. Although RAY has seen a significant price drop this year (-71% YTD), its role in handling nearly $3.9 billion in Solana DEX trading volume shows it has potential to bounce back. The big question is whether Raydium can maintain its liquidity leadership amid increasing regulatory scrutiny and security demands.

What is expected in the development of RAY?

Raydium is moving forward with key updates:

1. Expanding Rewards Program (Q1 2026) – Encouraging more traders and creators to get involved.
2. Boosting Launchpad Activity (Ongoing) – Growing token launches using bonding curves.
3. Optimizing Fee Structure (Q1 2026) – Tweaking fees to support growth and liquidity.

Detailed Overview

1. Expanding Rewards Program (Q1 2026)

What’s happening: Raydium plans to grow its rewards system, which currently motivates traders and content creators to be more active on the platform. The program showed strong results in July 2025, with RAY’s price rising 21% in one week, signaling positive market response (CoinMarketCap Community).

Why it matters: More engagement usually means better liquidity (currently, the turnover ratio is 0.13) and higher trading volume. But the challenge is to keep rewarding users without lowering the token’s value.

2. Boosting Launchpad Activity (Ongoing)

What’s happening: After the success of WAVE’s launch in July 2025, where 85 SOL tokens were migrated in less than two days, Raydium is working to bring more projects to its LaunchLab. By May 2025, over 35,000 tokens were created, though only a small fraction (0.62%) have fully launched (CoinMarketCap Article).

Why it matters: More launches mean higher protocol fees (currently about $900,000 daily) and more funds for buybacks, which is good for Raydium. However, competition from platforms like Pump.fun, which controls 44% of the Solana memecoin market, could be a challenge.

3. Optimizing Fee Structure (Q1 2026)

What’s happening: Raydium is experimenting with changes to its 1.25% trading fee on new tokens like WAVE. The goal is to find the right balance between making money and encouraging liquidity.

Why it matters: Lower fees might attract more projects, which is positive. But if fees drop too much, it could reduce the money available for buybacks, which would be negative. Watching how trading volume changes after these adjustments will be important.

Conclusion

Raydium’s future depends on growing LaunchLab participation and fine-tuning its fee and reward system. While regulatory limits (27% of the crypto market cap comes from restricted areas) and competition from other decentralized exchanges remain challenges, improvements in Solana’s network (like the Firedancer upgrade) could increase Raydium’s usefulness. It will be interesting to see how Solana’s faster processing speeds might change Raydium’s role in tokenized stocks and real-world assets (RWAs).

What updates are there in the RAY code base?

Raydium’s latest updates focus on improving liquidity, security, and making it easier to work across different blockchain networks.

1. V3 Beta Launch (July 8, 2025) – Combines the flexibility of automated market makers (AMMs) with OpenBook’s order book for better liquidity.
2. CPMM & LaunchLab Upgrade (August 20, 2025) – Introduces fee sharing paid in SOL tokens and supports new Token22 standards.
3. Burn & Earn Feature (October 23, 2024) – Allows liquidity providers to lock their positions and earn fees indefinitely through NFTs.

Deep Dive

1. V3 Beta Launch (July 8, 2025)

Overview: Raydium’s V3 Beta integrates OpenBook’s decentralized order book, which helps pool liquidity from various Solana-based decentralized exchanges (DEXs). This means traders can access about 40% more liquidity, and projects can start pools with much less upfront capital—up to 85% less.

Key improvements include:

• Hybrid Liquidity Model: Combines traditional AMM pools with live order book data to offer tighter price spreads.
• Smart Order Routing: Automatically finds the best prices across Serum-v2 forks and AMMs to reduce slippage (the difference between expected and actual trade prices).
• Backward Compatibility: Existing liquidity providers (LPs) can continue using their current positions through wrapper contracts without needing to move their funds.

What this means: This update is positive for Raydium (RAY) because deeper liquidity usually leads to higher trading volumes, which can increase fees earned by the platform. However, its success depends on how widely OpenBook is adopted. (Source)

2. CPMM & LaunchLab Upgrade (August 20, 2025)

Overview: Constant Product Market Maker (CPMM) pools now share a small percentage (0.05–0.10%) of trading fees with creators, paid in SOL (Solana’s native token). The upgrade also supports Token22 standards, which allow for features like transfer fees and enhanced token metadata.

Key changes:

• SOL Fee Distribution: Creators receive rewards in SOL before and after migration, reducing their dependence on the price of other tokens.
• Token22 Integration: Enables more complex token behaviors, such as charging fees on transfers.

What this means: This update is neutral for RAY in the short term because paying creators in SOL might reduce their incentive to hold RAY tokens. However, supporting Token22 could attract more projects to LaunchLab in the long run. (Source)

3. Burn & Earn Feature (October 23, 2024)

Overview: Liquidity providers can now lock their positions in CLMM/CPMM pools permanently and earn trading fees through NFTs that represent their share of the fees. This reduces the pressure to sell LP tokens when unlocking positions.

Key mechanics:

• Fee Key NFTs: These NFTs represent ownership of fee streams and can be traded on secondary markets.
• Full-Range Focus: Designed mainly for stablecoin or well-established token pools with steady trading volume.

What this means: This feature is positive for RAY because locking liquidity reduces the risk of pool dilution, making capital use more efficient. However, it’s mainly suited for experienced users. (Source)

Conclusion

Raydium is moving toward a hybrid liquidity model and more sustainable incentives for creators, strengthening its role as a key liquidity provider on Solana. While the success of V3 depends on OpenBook’s adoption, the fee-sharing upgrades and locked liquidity features help build a stronger position in decentralized finance (DeFi). The big question remains: can Raydium’s growing total value locked (TVL) keep pace with competition from aggregators like Jupiter?

Why did the price of RAY fall?

Raydium (RAY) dropped 7.96% in the last 24 hours, underperforming the overall crypto market, which fell by 2.77%. This decline was driven by challenges in the Solana ecosystem and technical weaknesses that increased selling pressure.

1. Meme coin crash impacts Solana – Meme coin dominance fell to 0.034, matching lows from February 2025, which hurt trading volumes on Solana’s decentralized exchanges (DEXs).
2. Aftermath of Upbit hack – A $30 million theft of Solana tokens, including RAY, caused ongoing panic selling.
3. Technical breakdown – RAY’s price dropped below a key support level at $1.04. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 38, indicating the coin is oversold, but there’s no clear sign of a price rebound yet.

Deep Dive

1. Meme Coin Sector Trouble (Negative Impact)

Overview: On December 12, meme coin dominance fell to 0.034, matching the lows seen in February 2025. This followed a report from Solidus Labs showing that 98.7% of Pump.fun tokens exhibited pump-and-dump behavior. Raydium, as the leading DEX on Solana, handled 93% of these risky liquidity pools.

What this means: The collapse of the meme coin sector reduces speculative trading, which is a major source of fee revenue for Raydium. Since 45% of Solana’s DEX trading volume in Q3 2025 came from meme coins (Blockworks), RAY faces challenges until new market drivers emerge.

What to watch: Solana’s network activity, which currently stands at 838,000 daily users—down 81% from its peak in December 2024, according to Artemis data.

2. Upbit Hack Fallout (Negative Impact)

Overview: On December 10, Upbit moved 99% of its assets to cold storage after losing $30 million worth of SOL, RAY, and JUP tokens in a hack. Although the stolen funds were reimbursed, the incident hurt confidence in Solana-based custodial services.

What this means: Institutional investors may hesitate to return to Solana’s decentralized finance (DeFi) space until investigations clarify how the attack happened. Raydium’s 24-hour trading volume is currently $26.1 million, which is 67% below its 30-day average.

3. Technical Breakdown (Mixed Impact)

Overview: RAY’s price fell below the critical $1.04 support level and its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) of $2.33. The RSI is at 38.03, nearing oversold territory. However, the MACD indicator recently turned positive for the first time in two weeks.

What this means: While the overall momentum is bearish, the positive MACD crossover suggests short-term traders might try to push the price back toward the $1 resistance level. Watch the $0.966 Fibonacci swing low—if the price closes below this, it could drop further to $0.85.

Conclusion

Raydium’s recent decline reflects volatility driven by the meme coin sector and concerns following the Upbit hack, combined with technical weaknesses. Although oversold conditions suggest a possible bounce, a sustained recovery will likely require either a revival in meme coin trading or renewed institutional interest in Solana’s DeFi ecosystem.

Key point to watch: Can RAY hold above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $1.05 to avoid retesting its 2025 lows?