Why did the price of LDO fall?
Lido DAO (LDO) dropped 24.6% in the last 24 hours, falling more than the overall crypto market, which was down 6.9%. The main reasons:
- Big investors selling – Paradigm Capital moved 10 million LDO tokens (worth $8.4 million) to exchanges, similar to a large $21 million sell-off in May 2025 linked to Lido team wallets.
- Market-wide caution – Bitcoin’s share of the market rose to 59.6%, while the Altcoin Season Index dropped 49% over the month, showing less interest in alternative coins like LDO.
- Technical price weakness – LDO’s price failed to hold the important $0.93 level, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) showed it was close to being oversold.
Deep Dive
1. Big Investors Selling (Negative Impact)
What happened: On June 10, 2025, Paradigm Capital moved 10 million LDO tokens (about $8.4 million) to wallets connected to exchanges, signaling they might sell. This follows a similar pattern from May 2025, when wallets linked to the Lido team sold $21 million worth of LDO (WuBlockchain).
Why it matters: Large holders selling often means they lack confidence in the coin’s short-term prospects, putting downward pressure on the price. Also, LDO’s price is becoming less tied to Ethereum’s price, showing it’s weakening on its own.
What to watch: Keep an eye on how much LDO is being moved to exchanges. More deposits could mean more selling ahead.
2. Overall Crypto Market Pullback (Negative Impact)
What happened: On October 11, 2025, the total crypto market value dropped 6.9%. Bitcoin’s dominance increased to 59.6%, while the Fear & Greed Index showed growing fear among investors. The Altcoin Season Index fell to 33, its lowest since April 2025, indicating less enthusiasm for coins like LDO.
Why it matters: Investors are moving money into Bitcoin as a safer option amid concerns like a possible U.S. government shutdown and trade tariffs. LDO’s trading volume jumped 278% to $363 million, suggesting many investors are selling quickly.
3. Technical Price Weakness (Negative Impact)
What happened: LDO’s price fell below key support levels, including the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $1.11 and the 200-day moving average at $0.986. The RSI dropped to 31.98, close to oversold territory, and other technical indicators confirmed bearish momentum.
Why it matters: Traders see the $0.84–$0.85 price range as a critical support zone. If LDO falls below this, it could trigger automated selling that pushes the price down further toward $0.96.
Conclusion
LDO’s recent price drop is due to a combination of large investors selling, a cautious crypto market, and weak technical signals. Although the filing for VanEck’s stETH ETF on October 2 initially boosted confidence, profit-taking and broader economic worries have taken over.
What to watch next: Will LDO hold the $0.84 support level? A price rebound above $0.93 would likely need progress on the ETF approval or a slowdown in tokens moving to exchanges.
What could affect the price of LDO?
LDO is caught between positive regulatory developments and growing competition.
- VanEck’s Staked ETH ETF – If approved, it could bring in big institutional investors (positive).
- SEC Staking Clarity – The SEC says liquid staking like Lido’s isn’t a security, lowering regulatory risks (positive).
- Market Share Decline – Lido’s share of ETH staking dropped to 24% this year, showing increased competition (negative).
Deep Dive
1. VanEck’s Staked ETH ETF (Positive Impact)
Overview:
On October 2, 2025, VanEck applied to launch an ETF based on stETH, which represents ETH staked through Lido. This ETF would allow investors to earn staking rewards (around 4% annually) without dealing with the technical side of staking. Lido currently manages $38 billion worth of ETH, making it the top liquid staking provider.
What this means:
If the SEC approves the ETF, it could attract a lot of institutional money because ETFs are popular investment vehicles for large investors. After the filing, LDO’s price jumped 7% (TokenPost). However, the SEC’s decision is still pending, and any delays or rejection could cause the price to drop.
2. Regulatory Tailwinds (Mixed Impact)
Overview:
In August 2025, the SEC clarified that non-custodial liquid staking services like Lido’s are not considered securities. This followed a favorable court ruling in May 2025 supporting staking services.
What this means:
This regulatory clarity lowers the risk of legal issues and could encourage more institutional investors to participate. On the downside, Lido faces competition from traditional finance companies, like BlackRock, which is also proposing an ETH staking ETF. This competition could reduce Lido’s market share.
3. Competitive Pressures (Negative Impact)
Overview:
Lido’s share of ETH staking has fallen from 32% in 2023 to 24% in 2025. Competitors such as Ether Fi, which saw a 30% increase in inflows this year, and centralized platforms like Coinbase, are gaining traction.
What this means:
Losing market share means less fee revenue for Lido, which funds buybacks of LDO tokens. The Lido DAO plans to use 70% of its inflows to buy back tokens, but this depends on continued growth. If competitors keep taking market share, it could hurt Lido’s financial health (Crypto Times).
Conclusion
LDO’s future depends largely on whether VanEck’s ETF gets approved and if Lido can stop losing market share. Regulatory wins and ETF excitement could boost the price, but competition and large token sales (like Paradigm Capital’s $8.4 million LDO sale in June) might limit gains. Keep an eye on upcoming SEC decisions and how well Lido executes its buyback plans in Q4.
Key question: Will VanEck’s ETF approval be enough to offset Lido’s shrinking share of the ETH staking market?
What are people saying about LDO?
The Lido DAO (LDO) community is divided between hopeful investors expecting a price breakout and concerns from large holders selling off. Here’s what’s currently shaping the conversation:
- Optimistic analysts see a potential rise to $2.55 based on improved profitability and positive technical signals
- Big investors have sold over $45 million worth of LDO through exchange wallets, raising worries about further price drops
- Traders are debating whether $1.45 is a key resistance level that will either lead to continued gains or a false breakout
In-Depth Analysis
1. Profitability Sparks $2.55 Price Target – Bullish Outlook
@johnmorganFL reports:
“Analyst Hints LDO Price Rally To $2.55, As Lido DAO Turns Profitable” (Aug 12, 2025)
See original post
What this means: After years of losses, Lido DAO became profitable in Q3 2025, earning $1 million. This financial turnaround, combined with a technical pattern called a descending wedge breakout, encourages traders to target $2.55—assuming demand for Ethereum staking remains strong.
2. Paradigm Capital’s $8.4M LDO Sell-Off – Bearish Signal
@WuBlockchain shares:
“Paradigm transferred 10M LDO ($8.4M) to exchanges… sold 50M LDO at $1.31 in 2023” (Jun 10, 2025)
See original post
What this means: Paradigm Capital, a major investor, still holds 20 million LDO tokens from an original purchase of 70 million at an average price of $0.76. Their ongoing sales, including a $27.5 million profit in late 2023, suggest weakening confidence from institutional investors, which puts downward pressure on LDO’s price.
3. $1.45 Price Level: Breakout or Breakdown? – Mixed Views
CoinMarketCap Community notes:
“If LDO holds above $1.45 with strong volume, another retest of $1.55 could be around the corner” (Aug 11, 2025)
What this means: Technical traders see $1.45 as a critical price point. Holding above this level with good trading volume could lead to a test of $1.55–$1.56, which was a previous local high in June. This area is important because it tests whether buyers have enough strength to push prices higher.
4. Governance Focus: Upcoming Tokenholder Call – Neutral
@LidoFinance announces:
“Join Lido’s first Tokenholder Update Call on August 14 to discuss roadmap alignment” (Aug 6, 2025)
See original post
What this means: Lido DAO is shifting attention to governance matters following the implementation of Dual Governance. How well this process goes could influence long-term investor confidence, especially during times of price swings.
5. $21M Token Dump Linked to Team Wallet – Bearish Impact
CoinMarketCap Article reports:
“A wallet linked to Lido moved 21.31M LDO ($21M) to exchanges in 6 days” (May 19, 2025)
What this means: These large transfers coincided with a 24% drop in LDO’s price to $0.88. Continued selling by team members or venture capital investors risks flooding the market with tokens, which could keep prices under pressure despite stable total value locked (TVL) in the protocol.
Conclusion
The outlook for Lido DAO is mixed. On one hand, improved profitability and technical patterns suggest potential gains. On the other, significant selling by large holders raises caution. The upcoming tokenholder call on August 14 will be important for updates on governance, and monitoring wallet activity—like the 48.48 million LDO ($45.6 million) moved to exchanges in May and June 2025—will help gauge market sentiment. Holding above $1.45 could be a key factor in determining whether LDO’s price trends upward or faces further declines.
What is the latest news about LDO?
Lido DAO is balancing excitement around a new ETF and selling pressure in the market. Here’s the latest:
- VanEck Staked ETH ETF Filing (October 3, 2025) – LDO’s price jumped 7% after VanEck filed for an ETF linked to Lido’s staked Ethereum.
- Buyback Program Launch (October 3, 2025) – Lido DAO started using treasury funds to buy back LDO tokens, aiming to reduce supply.
- Price Drops Sharply (October 11, 2025) – Despite ETF news, LDO’s price fell 24% in one day amid broader market volatility.
In-Depth Look
1. VanEck Staked ETH ETF Filing (October 3, 2025)
What happened:
VanEck registered a trust in Delaware to launch a Lido Staked Ethereum ETF. This fund would hold stETH, Lido’s token representing staked Ethereum, allowing investors to earn staking rewards without managing the technical side. Lido controls about 30% of the ETH staking market, with $38 billion in assets.
Why it matters:
If approved, this ETF could bring more institutional investors to Lido’s ecosystem, boosting demand for LDO. However, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has not yet approved the ETF, and other big players like BlackRock might also enter the space. (TokenPost)
2. Buyback Program Launch (October 3, 2025)
What happened:
Lido DAO started using its treasury assets, including stETH and stablecoins, to buy back LDO tokens from the market. The goal is to reduce the total number of LDO tokens available, which can help support the price. Up to 70% of the protocol’s revenue might go toward these buybacks, with controls in place to avoid overspending.
Why it matters:
This buyback program is a positive sign, as it can help balance out the inflationary effects of new tokens being created. Still, the program depends on the price stability of stETH and careful management. (Crypto Times)
3. Price Drops Sharply (October 11, 2025)
What happened:
LDO’s price fell 24% in one day, dropping to $0.85, despite the earlier ETF news. This decline reflects wider market uncertainty, with the overall crypto market cap down nearly 7% in 24 hours. Data from derivatives markets shows mixed signals: open interest (the total value of outstanding contracts) increased by 6.6%, but funding rates turned negative, indicating bearish sentiment.
Why it matters:
The sharp selloff suggests that some investors are taking profits and that broader economic concerns are causing caution. Traders are using hedging strategies due to high leverage in the market. Watching the $0.80 price level is important, as it may act as support. (Crypto.News)
Conclusion
Lido DAO’s potential ETF and buyback efforts show growing interest from institutional investors. However, regulatory uncertainty and overall market fear are creating challenges. The big question remains: will the SEC approve staking ETFs before the end of the year?
What is expected in the development of LDO?
Lido DAO is making steady progress with these key updates:
- Tokenholder Update Call (August 14, 2025) – A meeting to discuss strategic goals and how LDO tokens support the protocol’s success.
- CSM v2 Launch (July 2025) – Expanding community staking by allowing more validators and improving security measures.
- Triggerable Withdrawals (July 2025) – Letting users independently exit validators through Ethereum’s new EIP-7002 feature.
Deep Dive
1. Tokenholder Update Call (August 14, 2025)
Overview: Lido Labs held its first update call with tokenholders to go over the project’s plans, finances, and how to better align LDO token incentives with long-term goals. While detailed info wasn’t shared publicly, this shows they’re actively working on improving governance and operations (LidoFinance).
What this means: This is neutral for LDO right now. It shows the team is engaged but doesn’t bring immediate changes. Future clarity on how they manage funds or token economics could impact investor confidence.
2. CSM v2 Launch (July 2025)
Overview: The Community Staking Module version 2 was approved, increasing the maximum stake community validators can hold to 10% of Lido’s total. It also adds a system to verify community stakers and prevent fake identities, making it easier to onboard new node operators (LidoFinance).
What this means: This is positive for LDO because more community validators help decentralize the network, which is important for Ethereum’s security and trust. However, there’s a risk if the rollout is delayed or if validators become too concentrated.
3. Triggerable Withdrawals (July 2025)
Overview: Using Ethereum’s EIP-7002 upgrade, Lido now allows anyone to trigger validator exits through its Withdrawal Contract. This reduces the need to rely on centralized parties when unstaking (LidoFinance).
What this means: This is a strong positive for LDO, giving users more control and aligning with Ethereum’s goal of decentralization and trustlessness. Success depends on smooth integration with Ethereum’s staking system.
Conclusion
Lido DAO’s upcoming plans focus on making staking more decentralized and improving governance. The launch of its Scorecard framework in July 2025 was a key step toward aligning with Ethereum’s core values. The new upgrades aim to give users greater control over their stakes. The big question remains: how will LDO handle ongoing institutional sell-offs (NullTX) while pushing forward with these improvements to regain market trust?
What updates are there in the LDO code base?
Lido DAO's recent software updates, guided by community governance, are making the platform more decentralized and secure.
- CSM v2 Launch (July 2025) – The community staking limit is increased to 10%, allowing more people to participate.
- Triggerable Withdrawals (July 2025) – Anyone can now initiate validator exits without needing permission, thanks to Ethereum’s EIP-7002.
- Dual Governance Activation (June 2025) – Holders of stETH tokens get veto power over DAO decisions.
Deep Dive
1. CSM v2 Launch (July 2025)
What it is: The new CSM v2 update raises the cap on community staking to 10% of Lido’s total stake. This means more community members can run nodes and help secure the network.
The update also includes a system to verify community stakers and tweaks validator performance settings. This reduces dependence on a few centralized operators and supports Ethereum’s goal of decentralization.
Why it matters: This is good news for LDO holders because it spreads out network control, lowering risks tied to centralization and encouraging community growth. (Source)
2. Triggerable Withdrawals (July 2025)
What it is: This feature lets any user trigger a validator’s exit through Lido’s Withdrawal Contract, using Ethereum’s EIP-7002 standard.
Before, only certain parties could initiate withdrawals, which created a central point of control. Now, withdrawals are permissionless and censorship-resistant, making it easier for decentralized apps (dApps) that use stETH tokens to operate smoothly.
Why it matters: This change is neutral for LDO in the short term—it gives users more control but might cause more frequent validator exits temporarily. Over time, it builds trust in Lido’s decentralized nature. (Source)
3. Dual Governance Activation (June 2025)
What it is: Dual Governance gives stETH token holders the power to delay or block DAO proposals through a dynamic timelock system.
If 1% of stETH holders oppose a proposal, its execution is delayed by 5 to 45 days. If opposition reaches 10%, governance pauses entirely until dissenting holders leave. This protects against hostile takeovers and aligns the interests of stETH holders with LDO holders.
Why it matters: This is positive for LDO because it reduces governance risks and makes the protocol more secure against attacks. (Source)
Conclusion
Lido’s latest updates show a clear focus on decentralization, security, and empowering users. Together, CSM v2, Triggerable Withdrawals, and Dual Governance strengthen Lido’s role as a top liquid staking solution on Ethereum. The big question is: how will these improvements affect Lido’s market share as competition grows?