What could affect the price of RAY?
Raydium (RAY) is caught between Solana’s decentralized finance (DeFi) growth and broader market challenges.
- Solana DEX Activity – Increased trading during volatile times raises fees but may cause liquidity to leave the platform.
- LaunchLab Adoption – New token launches could increase revenue (positive) or distract focus (negative).
- Buyback Sustainability – $5.7 million spent on buybacks in July helped reduce supply, but fewer active users raise concerns.
Deep Dive
1. Solana Ecosystem Dependency (Mixed Impact)
Overview:
During a spike in Solana’s price volatility in October, Raydium handled $1.5 billion in trading volume within 24 hours (Yahoo Finance). However, Solana’s price dropped 31% over the month, which negatively affected Raydium’s total value locked (TVL). Raydium supports 95% of Solana’s tokenized stock trading, including popular stocks like Tesla and Nvidia, making its success closely tied to Solana’s price stability.
What this means:
If Solana’s price recovers above $200 and DeFi activity picks up, RAY could see gains. But since Solana’s price moves closely with Bitcoin (58% correlation this year), RAY remains vulnerable to wider cryptocurrency market downturns.
2. LaunchLab Growth vs. Competition (Bullish Catalyst)
Overview:
Raydium’s LaunchLab has seen strong adoption, with 79.31% of bonding curve tokens like WAVE and BK filled (Raydium.io). However, a competitor called Pump.fun now controls 75-80% of Solana memecoin launches (CoinTelegraph).
What this means:
If more projects move to Raydium’s pools (which require a minimum of 85 SOL), it could increase fee revenue and support RAY buybacks. But if Pump.fun keeps dominating, Raydium risks losing market share in Solana’s $4.4 billion daily decentralized exchange volume.
3. Buyback Program Efficacy (Near-Term Bullish)
Overview:
In July 2025, Raydium spent $5.7 million on buybacks, removing about 3.45 million RAY tokens (roughly 1.3% of the circulating supply). Despite this, daily active users have dropped 81% since December 2024 (CoinMarketCap).
What this means:
Reducing the supply could help stabilize prices if trading volume rebounds. But the sharp decline in user activity suggests buybacks might only provide short-term support. It’s important to watch if the 12% fee allocation toward buybacks continues as revenue falls.
Conclusion
RAY’s future depends on Solana regaining its DeFi momentum while dealing with memecoin market fatigue and regulatory challenges. The $1.56 Fibonacci support level matches July’s low—falling below this could lead to bigger losses. Will LaunchLab’s partnerships with institutions like xStocks help offset retail traders moving to Pump.fun? Keep an eye on Solana’s total value locked and RAY’s turnover ratio to spot changes in liquidity.
What are people saying about RAY?
Talk around Raydium (RAY) is swinging between hopes for a price breakout and worries about a possible drop. Here’s what’s trending:
- Bullish outlook aiming for $4 based on positive technical signals
- Upbit exchange listing boosts trading volume, but some remain skeptical
- Warning of a potential drop to $1.50 after hitting resistance near $3.80
In-Depth Look
1. @johnmorganFL: RAY’s $4 Price Target Looks Possible
"Raydium hits a 3-month high – Could $4 be next?"
– @johnmorganFL (18.2K followers · 124K impressions · Aug 10, 2025)
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What this means: Raydium benefits from growth in the Solana blockchain ecosystem and its position as a leading decentralized exchange (DEX). If RAY stays above $3.50, it could push toward $4. But it faces resistance near its 200-day moving average at about $2.99, which was last tested in September 2025.
2. @genius_sirenBSC: Upbit Listing Sparks Volume Surge, But Interest May Fade
"RAY jumped 14.53% after listing on Upbit with trading volume up 660%."
– @genius_sirenBSC (92K followers · 2.1M impressions · June 19, 2025)
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What this means: When Raydium was listed on Upbit, a major South Korean exchange, demand from Korean traders spiked. However, recent data shows that trading in Korean Won now makes up only 12% of RAY’s total volume, down from 34% during the peak hype. Watching if the $3.30 support level holds will help gauge ongoing liquidity and interest.
3. @ali_charts: Risk of Price Drop to $1.50 if Support Breaks
"Rejection at $3.80 might push Raydium $RAY down to $1.50!"
– @ali_charts (478K followers · 8.9M impressions · Sept 2, 2025)
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What this means: Technical charts show a “head-and-shoulders” pattern, which often signals a downward trend if RAY falls below $2.20. The token has already dropped 30% over the past month (as of October 2025), and declining total value locked (TVL) by 19% quarter-over-quarter adds fundamental pressure.
Summary
Opinions on Raydium (RAY) are mixed. On one hand, Solana’s decentralized finance (DeFi) growth supports optimism. On the other, weakening fundamentals like falling TVL ($1.86 billion down to $1.51 billion in 90 days) and a 41% revenue drop since August suggest caution. Technical traders are watching for a rebound from oversold conditions (daily RSI at 29), but the key level to watch is $3.30. Holding above this could mean buyers are stepping in, while dropping below may confirm bearish outlooks.
What is the latest news about RAY?
Raydium is experiencing mixed momentum – here’s the latest update:
- DEX Trading Volume Spike (October 12, 2025) – Raydium processed $1.5 billion in 24 hours as Solana’s price bounced back.
- Vinu Meme Coin Launch (October 8, 2025) – VINU was added to Raydium with gaming rewards to encourage use.
- Stablecoin Integration (October 1, 2025) – USX and eUSX stablecoins were added to Raydium’s liquidity pools to improve trading depth.
Deep Dive
1. DEX Trading Volume Spike (October 12, 2025)
Overview: As Solana’s price rose to $190, Raydium saw $1.5 billion in trading volume within 24 hours, making it the third-largest decentralized exchange (DEX) on Solana. Interest in Solana derivatives increased by 6.9%, showing that traders are betting on the price going up.
What this means: This is neutral for Raydium (RAY) because the volume increase reflects overall activity on Solana, not just demand for Raydium itself. Still, higher trading volume can lead to more fees for the platform and better rewards for those running the network. (Yahoo Finance)
2. Vinu Meme Coin Launch (October 8, 2025)
Overview: Vita Inu (VINU), a meme coin, was launched on Raydium’s DEX along with a Solana-based play-to-earn game offering a $100,000 prize pool. This aims to increase the coin’s usefulness and attract players.
What this means: This is slightly positive for RAY because new coin listings can bring more trading activity and fees. However, VINU’s trading volume is low ($416,000 daily), and its success depends on unconfirmed exchange rumors, so the immediate impact is limited. (Bitrue)
3. Stablecoin Integration (October 1, 2025)
Overview: Raydium integrated stablecoins USX and eUSX from Solstice Finance into its liquidity pools. This allows for larger trades with less price impact (slippage). USX currently holds $160 million in total value locked (TVL) and offers nearly 14% yields through its YieldVault.
What this means: This is positive for RAY because stronger stablecoin liquidity can attract bigger traders, including institutions, and make trading on Solana more efficient. (MEXC News)
Conclusion
Raydium continues to play a key role in Solana’s decentralized finance (DeFi) growth, balancing the ups and downs of meme coin hype with solid stablecoin partnerships. Although RAY’s price dropped 31% over the past week and hasn’t kept pace with Solana’s rebound, its strong liquidity setup could help it bounce back. The big question is whether Raydium’s fee income will grow faster than the shifting interest in other altcoins during the fourth quarter.
What is expected in the development of RAY?
Raydium is moving forward with key updates:
- LaunchLab Incentive Expansion (2025) – Increasing rewards in RAY tokens to encourage more traders and creators to use the platform.
- Fee Structure Optimization (Q4 2025) – Adjusting trading fees based on user feedback to find the right balance.
- V3 Protocol Upgrades (Ongoing) – Improving how liquidity is combined and trades are routed for better efficiency.
Deep Dive
1. LaunchLab Incentive Expansion (2025)
Overview: Since April 2025, Raydium’s LaunchLab program has given out 50,000 $RAY tokens to active users, with another 50,000 set aside for future rewards. This program encourages more people to trade and create tokens on the platform. For example, a creator named bonk_fun earned $575,000 in fees in just three days, showing the program’s potential.
What this means: This is a positive sign for RAY because more users mean more trading activity, which can increase the fees Raydium collects (currently about $900,000 per day) and help buy back tokens to support the price. However, Raydium faces competition from platforms like Pump.fun, which holds 44% of the Solana memecoin market, so attracting users remains a challenge.
2. Fee Structure Optimization (Q4 2025)
Overview: Raydium is experimenting with a 1.25% trading fee on new tokens such as WAVE and RUN. This fee is lower than Uniswap V4’s average of 1.5% to 2.5%, aiming to attract more projects to launch on Raydium. The team plans to adjust fees based on how the market responds.
What this means: This update is neutral for RAY. Lower fees might bring in more projects and users, but if fees are too low, Raydium’s revenue could suffer. Finding the right balance between encouraging volume and maintaining income will be important.
3. V3 Protocol Upgrades (Ongoing)
Overview: The V3 upgrade combines OpenBook’s order book system with Raydium’s automated market maker (AMM) pools. This allows liquidity from different sources to be pooled together, improving trade execution. Features include smart order routing that accesses over 40% of available liquidity and contracts that work with older versions.
What this means: This is good news for RAY because better liquidity can lead to higher trading volumes and more assets locked in the platform (TVL). However, if users are slow to adopt OpenBook’s network, progress might be slower than expected.
Conclusion
Raydium’s plan focuses on growing user incentives, fine-tuning fees, and upgrading its technology. While challenges like regulatory restrictions (27% of market cap from limited regions) and competition from other decentralized exchanges remain, successful updates could solidify Raydium’s role as a key liquidity provider on Solana. The upcoming Solana Firedancer upgrade in Q4 might further boost Raydium’s technical capabilities.
What updates are there in the RAY code base?
Raydium’s latest software updates bring important improvements to how liquidity is managed and how creators earn rewards.
- CPMM & LaunchLab Update (August 2025) – Added support for Token22 and switched creator fees to be paid in SOL instead of RAY.
- Burn & Earn Feature (2025) – Allows users to lock liquidity positions into NFTs, letting them earn fees indefinitely.
- LaunchLab Migration Support (July 2025) – Partnered with Metaplex to offer incentives for projects moving liquidity to Raydium.
Deep Dive
1. CPMM & LaunchLab Update (August 2025)
What happened: Raydium upgraded its Constant Product Market Maker (CPMM) pools to support the new Token22 standard and changed how creator fees are paid—from RAY tokens to SOL tokens. This helps creators avoid the ups and downs of RAY’s price.
Projects can now set two different fee rates (between 0.05% and 0.10% per trade) and use advanced token features like transfer fees thanks to Token22. Creators earn fees in SOL, which are automatically added back into liquidity pools to help grow them.
Why it matters: This update is good news for RAY because it attracts more projects with flexible fee options and reduces the pressure to sell RAY tokens for creator payouts. Traders benefit from stronger liquidity since fees are reinvested automatically.
(Source)
2. Burn & Earn Feature (2025)
What happened: Users can now lock their liquidity provider (LP) tokens permanently by burning them and receiving an NFT called a Raydium Fee Key. This NFT lets them keep earning trading fees without the risk of impermanent loss (the risk of losing value when providing liquidity).
Over 12% of Raydium’s pools have adopted this feature, with $180 million in liquidity locked as of May 2025.
Why it matters: This is neutral for RAY in the short term but positive in the long run. It encourages liquidity providers to hold their positions for fees rather than trading, which can stabilize liquidity and potentially reduce the number of RAY tokens in circulation.
(Source)
3. LaunchLab Migration Support (July 2025)
What happened: Raydium teamed up with Metaplex’s Genesis platform to support projects migrating their liquidity to Raydium. These projects get extra RAY rewards and better visibility on Raydium’s platform, especially for new NFT and token launches on Solana.
This move came after Pump.fun left Raydium in March 2025.
Why it matters: This is a positive development for RAY because it helps Raydium capture more market share in Solana’s token launch space, increasing trading volume and liquidity provider activity. In 2025, over 35,000 tokens launched through LaunchLab, though only a small fraction (0.62%) moved on to full listings.
(Source)
Conclusion
Raydium’s recent updates aim to make liquidity more stable (Burn & Earn), attract more projects with flexible token standards (Token22/CPMM), and strengthen its position in Solana’s launchpad market. While RAY faces competition from platforms like Serum and Uniswap V4, its innovative fee-sharing features help it remain a key player in decentralized finance (DeFi). Looking ahead, Solana’s upcoming Firedancer upgrade could further boost Raydium’s transaction speed and user growth.
Why did the price of RAY fall?
Raydium (RAY) dropped 5.39% over the last 24 hours, falling to $1.81. This continues a larger 7-day decline of 31.58%, driven by overall weakness in the crypto market and challenges specific to the platform.
- Market-Wide Caution – The crypto fear/greed index is at 32, indicating "Fear," and the altcoin season index has dropped 59% over the past month.
- Decentralized Exchange (DEX) Competition & Volume Concerns – Questions about the legitimacy of trading volumes on Aster DEX, which reported $100 billion in volume, have raised doubts about liquidity on Solana-based DEXs (Cointelegraph).
- Technical Indicators Show Weakness – Raydium’s price is below key moving averages, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI14) at 31 suggests the coin is oversold, but there’s no clear sign of a price rebound yet.
Deep Dive
1. Overall Crypto Market Sentiment Hurts Raydium
The total value of all cryptocurrencies dropped 2.75%, from $3.66 trillion to $3.56 trillion. Altcoins like Raydium performed worse than Bitcoin, which increased its market dominance to 58.8%. This shift reflects investors moving away from riskier assets like RAY.
What this means: Raydium’s 5.39% loss is sharper than the overall market decline, showing it’s more sensitive to investors pulling back from smaller, riskier coins. The altcoin season index at 29 (on a scale from 0 to 100) confirms that money is flowing out of smaller cryptocurrencies.
2. Challenges in the Solana DEX Market
Daily trading volumes on Solana-based decentralized exchanges have fallen to $4.44 billion, down from a peak of $8 billion in October. Meanwhile, Aster DEX, a competitor, is under scrutiny for potentially inflated trading volumes, causing distrust across the sector (Yahoo Finance).
What this means: Despite integrating the Solstice Finance stablecoin on October 1, Raydium’s 24-hour trading volume dropped 5.86% to $55.3 million. Traders may be shifting their focus to more established decentralized finance (DeFi) projects seen as safer bets.
3. Technical Analysis Points to Continued Downtrend
Raydium’s price has fallen below its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) of $2.99 and a key pivot point at $1.93. The MACD indicator shows bearish momentum, and the 7-day simple moving average (SMA) at $2.10 is now acting as resistance.
What this means: The next major support level is at $1.56, based on the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Until the RSI14 climbs back above 50, short-term price recoveries may be limited.
Conclusion
Raydium’s recent price drop reflects broader market caution, concerns about Solana DEX liquidity, and technical weaknesses. While the coin is currently oversold, regaining the $1.93 pivot point is important for stabilizing its price.
Key to watch: Will Solana’s upcoming Firedancer upgrade in Q3 2025 boost decentralized exchange activity and increase Raydium’s usefulness on the network?