Why did the price of HYPE fall?

Hyperliquid (HYPE) dropped 11.5% in the last 24 hours, adding to a 31% decline over the past week. This fall reflects a broader weakness in the crypto market (global market cap down 4.5% daily) but is also driven by specific challenges facing the platform.

1. Rising Competition – Rival decentralized exchange (DEX) Aster introduced 300x leverage for trading HYPE, shifting liquidity away.
2. Token Unlock Concerns – On November 29, 237.8 million HYPE tokens (worth about $11.9 billion at $50 each) will start unlocking, raising fears of increased selling.
3. Technical Breakdown – The price fell below a key support level at $46.11, triggering automatic sell-offs.

Deep Dive

1. Aster’s Bold Move (Negative Impact)

On September 23, Aster DEX launched 300x leverage for HYPE perpetual futures, directly challenging Hyperliquid’s market position. Within 24 hours, Aster recorded $310 million in trading volume and $1 billion in total value locked (TVL), pulling liquidity away from Hyperliquid (MEXC News). Although Hyperliquid still leads in open interest ($10.6 billion vs. Aster’s $1.83 billion), traders are attracted to higher leverage options for quick profits, putting downward pressure on HYPE’s price.

2. Token Unlock Risks (Negative Impact)

Starting November 29, 237.8 million HYPE tokens—about 24% of the circulating supply—will begin unlocking gradually over 24 months. This could add roughly $410 million in monthly selling pressure after accounting for buybacks (Maelstrom). Hyperliquid currently uses 97% of its fees for buybacks, totaling around $58 million per month at current trading volumes, but the token unlock might still overwhelm demand.

3. Technical Weakness (Negative Impact)

HYPE’s price fell below the important $46.11 support level (the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement), accelerating the decline. Key technical indicators show:

• RSI at 40.61: Neutral but trending downward.
• MACD at -1.45: Confirms bearish momentum.
• Volume at $794 million (24h): Up 46% from the previous day, indicating strong selling pressure.

Conclusion

HYPE is facing a combination of increased competition, concerns over token dilution, and technical breakdowns. While Hyperliquid’s fundamentals remain solid (with annualized revenue around $1.2 billion), short-term market sentiment is weighed down by Aster’s rise and upcoming token unlocks.

What to watch: Can HYPE hold the next support level at $38.20 (the 200-day exponential moving average)? A close below this could lead to further declines toward $30.

What is expected in the development of HYPE?

Hyperliquid’s roadmap is focused on growing its ecosystem by adding new stablecoins, improving decentralized finance (DeFi) tools, and making its markets more accessible.

1. USDH Stablecoin Launch (Q4 2025) – Plans with Paxos and Frax to introduce a compliant stablecoin that generates yield.
2. HIP-3 Permissionless Markets (Q4 2025) – Allows the community to create new perpetual futures markets and share in the fees.
3. HyperEVM & CoreWriter Integration (2025) – Enhances cross-chain connections and makes decentralized apps (dApps) work better together.

Deep Dive

1. USDH Stablecoin Launch (Q4 2025)

Overview:
Hyperliquid is preparing to launch USDH, a stablecoin backed by Paxos and Frax Finance. Paxos plans to use 95% of the interest earned on reserves to buy back Hyperliquid tokens (HYPE), while Frax intends to return all the yield to the community (source). USDH will be integrated into Hyperliquid’s DeFi platform, reducing the need to rely on other stablecoins like USDC.

What this means:
This is positive for HYPE holders because buybacks can lower the number of tokens in circulation, potentially increasing value. Also, using USDH could improve liquidity and attract larger investors. However, there are risks such as regulatory challenges around stablecoin reserves and competition from well-established stablecoins.

2. HIP-3 Permissionless Markets (Q4 2025)

Overview:
HIP-3 will let anyone who stakes 1 million HYPE tokens create new perpetual futures markets. Market creators can earn up to 50% of the trading fees generated (RedStone blog). This aims to increase the variety of trading options and give more control to the community.

What this means:
This could be good for HYPE by increasing trading activity and token use. But if too many markets are created, liquidity might spread too thin, making trading less efficient. The success depends on attracting serious market makers and managing risks carefully.

3. HyperEVM & CoreWriter Integration (2025)

Overview:
CoreWriter will allow dApps built on HyperEVM to connect directly with Hyperliquid’s orderbook. This will improve how different blockchains and apps work together, supporting automated trading strategies with partners like Gelato and Stargate (source).

What this means:
This is a positive step for HYPE because better interoperability can encourage developers to build more tools and attract institutional users. However, there could be delays or security issues when connecting different blockchain layers.

Conclusion

Hyperliquid’s roadmap aims to grow its platform by launching USDH with yield benefits, enabling community-driven market creation, and improving cross-chain technology. These moves could strengthen HYPE’s role in decentralized derivatives trading. Still, challenges like execution risks and regulatory concerns remain. A key question is how USDH’s yield-sharing will balance rewarding token holders while keeping the system sustainable as it grows.

What updates are there in the HYPE code base?

Hyperliquid’s latest updates focus on making decentralized finance (DeFi) more connected and easier for institutions to use.

1. Rabby Wallet Integration (September 4, 2025) – Users can now trade perpetual contracts directly inside the Rabby Wallet, with a smooth experience similar to Phantom Wallet.
2. HIP-3 Auction Launch (August 21, 2025) – New markets can be created by staking 1 million HYPE tokens, helping ensure only serious projects list assets.
3. CoreWriter Module (August 21, 2025) – Smart contracts on Ethereum-compatible networks can now interact directly with Hyperliquid’s orderbook, enabling more advanced DeFi applications.

Deep Dive

1. Rabby Wallet Integration (September 4, 2025)

What happened: Rabby Wallet added Hyperliquid’s trading features, allowing users to trade perpetual contracts without leaving the wallet. This setup is similar to the popular Phantom Wallet but includes leverage options, letting traders amplify their positions.

The integration uses Hyperliquid’s technology to show live order books and execute trades instantly inside Rabby Wallet. In its first month, this feature handled $2.66 billion in trading volume and attracted nearly 21,000 new users.

Why it matters: This makes trading more accessible for everyday users by simplifying the process and expanding Hyperliquid’s reach beyond specialized DeFi platforms. This is a positive development for Hyperliquid (HYPE). (Source)

2. HIP-3 Auction Launch (August 21, 2025)

What happened: HIP-3 introduced a new way to launch perpetual markets. Projects must now stake 1 million HYPE tokens (worth about $41 million as of late September 2025) to create a market. In return, these projects can earn up to 50% of the trading fees generated.

This system helps keep the market quality high by discouraging low-effort listings and aligns the interests of the platform and market creators. Early participants include HypurrFi and Felix Protocol.

Why it matters: This change is neutral for HYPE. It encourages serious projects to join but might be too costly for smaller innovators. (Source)

3. CoreWriter Module (August 21, 2025)

What happened: The CoreWriter module lets Ethereum-compatible smart contracts (EVM contracts) directly access Hyperliquid’s orderbook. This means developers can build decentralized apps (dApps) that combine Hyperliquid’s liquidity with other Ethereum-based features.

For example, Liminal Money uses this to create delta-neutral strategies, which balance risk by combining USDC deposits with leveraged trades.

Why it matters: This is a strong positive for HYPE because it enables more complex DeFi tools while keeping Hyperliquid’s high-speed performance (20,000 transactions per second). (Source)

Conclusion

Hyperliquid is moving toward better integration with other platforms (through Rabby Wallet and CoreWriter) while carefully expanding its market offerings (via HIP-3). With institutional investments reaching $5.5 billion after adding USDC support, these upgrades could help Hyperliquid maintain its leading 70% share in decentralized perpetual contracts.

What are people saying about HYPE?

The Hyperliquid (HYPE) community is buzzing with excitement over recent achievements but also cautious about large investors making big bets. Here’s the latest:

1. Price could break out to $70 after overcoming key resistance
2. Some say HYPE is undervalued, but big investors are betting against it
3. Potential partnerships with stablecoins and PayPal are driving adoption hopes

Deep Dive

1. @cryptonary: Bullish trend confirmed 🚀

“HYPE broke through $49 resistance and is now targeting $70–$80 by the end of the year if it holds support at $52–$53. The RSI indicator supports this price move.”
– @cryptonary (89K followers · 1.2M impressions · 2025-09-13 21:06 UTC)
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What this means: Technical experts see strong signs that the price will rise after months of steady trading, but caution that falling below $49 could reverse this trend.

2. @0xMojojo: Undervalued despite all-time high 📈

“The number of users and trades doesn’t match the $57 price. People aren’t bullish enough.”
– @0xMojojo (42K followers · 580K impressions · 2025-09-02 23:37 UTC)
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What this means: Supporters argue that with over 500,000 users and $5.5 billion in monthly trading volume, HYPE’s value should be higher. However, short positions (bets that the price will fall) increased by 47% last week.

3. @rayray1: PayPal integration on the horizon? 💸

“Paxos stablecoins plus 400 million PayPal and Venmo users could start buying HYPE — this would be a gamechanger for adoption.”
– @rayray1 (31K followers · 320K impressions · 2025-09-12 08:36 UTC)
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What this means: There are rumors about integrating HYPE with PayPal’s payment system, which could make it easier for millions to buy and use the coin. However, no official announcement has been made yet.

Conclusion

Overall, opinions on Hyperliquid (HYPE) are mixed but tend to be optimistic. The price momentum and growing ecosystem are positive signs, but large investors betting against it add some risk. The $52–$53 support level is key to watch. Confirmation of a PayPal partnership could boost confidence and reduce short-term price swings. With $10.6 billion in open interest on derivatives markets (source: CoinGlass), many traders are eager to see how this plays out.

What could affect the price of HYPE?

Hyperliquid’s price is caught between growing its ecosystem and facing tougher competition.

1. USDH stablecoin launch – Buybacks might reduce supply.
2. Aster DEX rivalry – 300x leverage on HYPE challenges trading volume leadership.
3. Technical indicators – Oversold RSI suggests a possible rebound, but bearish MACD remains.

Deep Dive

1. USDH Stablecoin & Buybacks (Positive Outlook)

Overview: The Hyperliquid community is voting to launch USDH, a stablecoin designed to meet regulatory standards. Paxos has proposed using 95% of the reserve yield to buy back Hyperliquid’s native token, HYPE. Additionally, integration with Circle’s USDC stablecoin (Circle) will add liquidity to the system.
What this means: Buybacks can reduce the number of HYPE tokens available in the market, potentially increasing its value. The adoption of USDH could also strengthen HYPE’s role in decentralized finance (DeFi). In the past, buybacks absorbed about 30 million HYPE tokens (around 9% of total supply), which helped push prices up during periods of high trading volume.

2. Aster DEX Competition (Mixed Impact)

Overview: Aster DEX now offers traders up to 300 times leverage on HYPE, attracting those willing to take bigger risks. After receiving an endorsement from Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao, Aster’s total value locked (TVL) briefly surpassed Hyperliquid’s (MEXC).
What this means: While higher leverage can increase trading volume for HYPE, Aster’s growth may split the market share. Hyperliquid currently holds about 70% of the decentralized exchange (DEX) perpetual contracts market, but this dominance is now being challenged.

3. Technical Setup & Market Sentiment (Neutral to Bearish)

Overview: HYPE is trading at $41.21, below the halfway point of its recent price range ($49.72). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 33.36 indicates the token is oversold, which might lead to a price bounce. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains negative, signaling ongoing downward momentum. The Federal Reserve’s recent interest rate cut on September 24 hasn’t reversed the overall bearish trend in cryptocurrencies.
What this means: A price rebound near the $40 support level is possible, but a sustained recovery will likely require new investments, such as inflows from spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) or a shift in market focus. Trading turnover at 5.7% points to moderate liquidity risk.

Conclusion

The future of HYPE depends on how well USDH’s launch can reduce selling pressure and counter Aster’s growing liquidity. While buybacks and oversold technical signals offer some short-term optimism, overall market sentiment and shifts in altcoin interest (CMC Alt Season Index at 69) remain uncertain. The key question is whether Hyperliquid’s validator-based governance can outperform centralized competitors in this high-leverage environment. Keep an eye on USDH’s rollout speed and HYPE’s open interest, which reached $14.7 billion in July.

What is the latest news about HYPE?

Hyperliquid is navigating a competitive and fast-changing market. Here’s the latest update:

1. Aster DEX Launches 300x Leverage (September 23, 2025) – A competing platform now offers extremely high-risk trading options for HYPE traders.
2. USDH Stablecoin Governance Battle (September 24, 2025) – Tether’s new USAT stablecoin challenges Hyperliquid’s upcoming USDH launch.
3. ASTER Token Surges (September 23, 2025) – The CZ-backed ASTER token briefly overtakes Hyperliquid’s total value locked (TVL).

Deep Dive

1. Aster DEX Launches 300x Leverage (September 23, 2025)

Overview:
On September 23, Aster DEX introduced 300x leverage trading for Hyperliquid’s HYPE perpetual futures. This means traders can borrow up to 300 times their investment to increase potential gains—or losses. Within 24 hours, this new feature attracted $310 million in trading volume and 330,000 new wallets. However, such high leverage also increases the risk of liquidations, which can be dangerous for decentralized finance (DeFi) users.

What this means:
This development is neutral to slightly negative for Hyperliquid. While offering more leverage might increase trading activity overall, Aster’s bold move could draw traders away from Hyperliquid’s platform. Because 300x leverage is rare in decentralized exchanges, Hyperliquid may feel pressure to either offer similar risk levels or focus on other unique features to stay competitive. (MEXC News)

2. USDH Stablecoin Governance Battle (September 24, 2025)

Overview:
Tether is proposing a new stablecoin called USAT under the U.S. "GENIUS Act," which directly competes with Hyperliquid’s planned USDH stablecoin. Additionally, companies like Paxos and Circle are competing to manage USDH’s reserves. Hyperliquid plans to use 95% of USDH’s fees to buy back HYPE tokens, which could support HYPE’s value.

What this means:
This is negative in the short term but positive in the long term. Regulatory-compliant stablecoins like USAT might slow down USDH’s adoption initially. However, if Hyperliquid’s plan to use most fees for HYPE buybacks succeeds, it could create steady demand for HYPE tokens over time. The final outcome depends on upcoming community governance votes this quarter. (Bitget News)

3. ASTER Token Surge (September 23, 2025)

Overview:
The ASTER token, supported by Binance CEO CZ, surged 400% on September 23 and briefly surpassed Hyperliquid’s total value locked (TVL) at $1 billion. ASTER powers a multichain decentralized exchange (DEX) that offers yield-earning collateral—a feature Hyperliquid currently does not have.

What this means:
This is neutral for Hyperliquid. Although ASTER’s rapid growth shows strong competition, Hyperliquid still leads in daily trading volume ($420 million compared to ASTER’s $310 million peak). This rivalry may push both platforms to innovate faster, especially by adding AI-driven trading tools. (Millionero Magazine)

Conclusion

Hyperliquid is facing three major challenges: intense leverage competition, stablecoin governance battles, and direct competition from ASTER. Despite this, Hyperliquid’s impressive $1.76 trillion cumulative trading volume and 70% market share in perpetual DEX trading show strong resilience. The key question is: Can Hyperliquid’s fee-based buyback model outperform competitors’ yield incentives as the Altcoin Season Index cools to 69? Keep an eye on USDH’s governance vote and TVL trends throughout September for important clues.