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Why did the price of HYPE fall?

Hyperliquid (HYPE) dropped 5.52% in the last 24 hours to $44.74, underperforming the overall crypto market, which rose by 1.59%. The main reasons include negative technical signals, competition from rival decentralized exchange (DEX) Aster, and concerns about a large upcoming token release worth $12 billion.

  1. Technical Breakdown – Bearish MACD crossover and failure to break $50 resistance
  2. Aster DEX Competition – Rival platform briefly surpassed Hyperliquid’s weekly trading volume
  3. Unlock Overhang – $12 billion worth of HYPE tokens set to unlock starting November 29

Deep Dive

1. Technical Weakness (Bearish Impact)

Overview: HYPE hit a wall at the $50 resistance level (close to its September 18 all-time high of $59.39) and fell below the 7-day simple moving average (SMA) of $44.91. The MACD indicator, which helps identify momentum, turned negative (-1.01), signaling downward pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 45.57 suggests there’s still room for the price to fall before it becomes oversold.

What this means: The $50 to $55 range is acting as a strong psychological barrier for buyers. If the price falls below the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $34.19, it could trigger automatic sell orders (stop-losses). However, if the price holds around $44, it might stabilize and prevent further declines.

2. Aster DEX Threat (Mixed Impact)

Overview: Aster, a competing decentralized exchange supported by former Binance Labs investors, briefly overtook Hyperliquid’s weekly trading volume after launching its token (Cointelegraph).

What this means: Although Hyperliquid still controls a large share (65–80%) of the decentralized perpetual contracts market, Aster’s rapid growth shows that the DEX space is becoming more competitive. Traders might shift to newer platforms that offer better leverage or incentives.

3. Unlock Risks (Bearish Catalyst)

Overview: Starting November 29, 237.8 million HYPE tokens (valued at about $12 billion if priced at $50 each) will begin to unlock gradually, releasing roughly $410 million worth of tokens every month. Current buyback programs only cover about 17% of this new supply (X post).

What this means: Even if the core team holds onto their tokens, the unlocking schedule creates selling pressure because holders may want to cash out. Markets often anticipate these events weeks in advance, which helps explain HYPE’s 7% price drop over the past week.

Conclusion

HYPE’s recent decline reflects a mix of technical weakness, growing competition, and concerns about the upcoming token unlock. Despite these challenges, the project’s fundamentals remain solid, including $45 million in Hypurr NFT trading volume and support from institutional investors. The price range between $44 and $47 will be crucial for maintaining a positive trend.

Key watch: Will HYPE be able to hold above its 200-day EMA at $34.19 if Bitcoin experiences renewed volatility around $114,000?


What could affect the price of HYPE?

Hyperliquid's price is balancing between growth in its ecosystem and potential supply challenges.

  1. USDH Buybacks (Positive) – 95% of stablecoin earnings will be used to buy and burn HYPE tokens, reducing supply.
  2. $12B Token Unlock (Negative) – Starting November 2025, 237.8 million HYPE tokens will enter circulation, which could lead to oversupply.
  3. DEX Competition (Mixed) – Aster DEX has captured 66% of the market share, challenging Hyperliquid’s dominance.

In-Depth Analysis

1. USDH Stablecoin & Buyback System (Positive Impact)

Overview:
Hyperliquid plans to launch a stablecoin called USDH (Paxos). This stablecoin will use 95% of its reserve earnings to buy back and burn HYPE tokens. With $3.5 billion USDC already connected to Hyperliquid, this could create steady demand for HYPE.

What this means:
If USDH’s reserves generate a 1% yield, that would create about $35 million in annual demand for HYPE tokens at current levels. This ongoing buyback could help balance out selling pressure from upcoming token unlocks if more people start using USDH.

2. November 2025 Token Unlock (Negative Impact)

Overview:
On November 29, 2025, 237.8 million HYPE tokens (worth about $10.6 billion at $44.57 each) will become available. While team tokens (23.8% of total supply) remain locked until 2027, early investors will gain access to their tokens.

What this means:
This unlock represents 70% of the current circulating supply. Past experience shows that even smaller monthly unlocks can lower prices if demand doesn’t keep up. For example, HYPE’s price dropped 27% after Aster launched, despite $1.8 billion in trading volume (CoinDesk).

3. Competition with Aster DEX (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
Aster DEX quickly took 66% of Hyperliquid’s market share by leveraging Binance’s liquidity. However, Hyperliquid counters with over 180 projects in its ecosystem (CMMHyperTracker).

What this means:
Hyperliquid benefits from a strong network effect with $3.56 billion in total value locked (TVL). But Aster’s 10x leverage and support from Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ) pose a serious threat to trading volume. Derivatives platforms rely heavily on liquidity, so Hyperliquid’s $1.4 billion in open interest needs to stay above $1 billion to keep traders confident.

Conclusion

The future of HYPE depends on whether USDH’s adoption can outpace the large token unlock in November 2025. While regulatory talks with the CFTC and rumors of a VanEck ETF add credibility, the $12 billion token unlock remains a major risk. Keep an eye on the trading volume of the HYPE/USDH pair after launch—daily volumes over $100 million would suggest the buyback strategy is working. The big question is whether Hyperliquid’s venture capital-free approach can hold up against Binance-backed competition while managing its own token supply challenges.


What are people saying about HYPE?

The Hyperliquid (HYPE) community is feeling a mix of excitement and caution as the price holds steady near $57. Here’s the quick overview:

  1. Optimism for a breakout – Experts expect HYPE to climb above $70 if it stays above $53.
  2. Big players battling it out – Large investors with long and short positions are competing near key price points.
  3. Institutional interest grows – Partnerships with stablecoins and strong revenue numbers are driving confidence.

Deep Dive

1. @cryptonary: Bullish outlook aiming for $70+

“HYPE turned its $49 resistance level into support, confirming a positive breakout. The momentum indicators suggest a rise to $60-$70 by the end of the year if it holds between $52 and $53.”
– @cryptonary (183K followers · 2.1M impressions · 2025-09-13 21:06 UTC)
View original post
What this means: This is a positive sign for HYPE, showing strong technical and fundamental support around $52-$53. If the price falls below $49, this upward trend could be invalidated.

2. Whale Alert: $2.07M short vs. $3M long bets

“Investor 0xf3e1 opened a 10x leveraged short position at $45.52 on July 11, while 0xc916 started a $3 million long position at $39.39 on July 7.”
– CoinGlass data via CoinMarketCap (2025-07-11)
What this means: Big investors are split on where HYPE is headed next, which could lead to price swings. The short position could face losses if HYPE rises above $45.

3. @CoinRank_io: Arthur Hayes’ 126x growth prediction

“Hayes forecasts $10 trillion in stablecoin trading volume by 2028, with Hyperliquid capturing 26.4% of that market, potentially generating $25.8 billion in yearly revenue.”
– @CoinRank_io (2025-08-25)
View original post
What this means: This is a very optimistic long-term view, but it depends on widespread adoption of decentralized trading and Hyperliquid maintaining its leading position.

Conclusion

The general outlook for HYPE is positive but cautious. Strong technical momentum and partnerships with companies like Paxos and PayPal help balance the risks from highly leveraged trades. Keep an eye on the $52-$53 support level this week—if it falls below that, it could trigger a wave of forced selling. Holding above this level could confirm the path toward $70. Also, watch Hyperliquid’s 24H Volume to see if trading stays strong above $650 million.


What is the latest news about HYPE?

Hyperliquid is gaining momentum thanks to its popular NFTs and support from big investors, but it faces a challenge with a large amount of tokens becoming available soon. Here’s the latest update:

  1. Hypurr NFT Launch (September 30, 2025) – $45 million in first-day sales pushes HYPE token toward a $50 price level.
  2. Cathie Wood Compares Hyperliquid to Solana (September 29, 2025) – The ARK Invest CEO highlights Hyperliquid’s strong growth potential.
  3. Warning About $12 Billion Token Unlock (September 22, 2025) – Maelstrom Fund warns of $500 million in monthly token sales starting November.

In-Depth Look

1. Hypurr NFT Launch (September 30, 2025)

What happened: Hyperliquid released 4,600 Hypurr NFTs through its HyperEVM platform, generating $45 million in trading on the first day. The lowest-priced NFT in the collection was about $68,700, while a rare NFT (#21) sold for $467,000 (9,999 HYPE tokens). This boosted activity on the platform, with spot trading and futures volume increasing significantly.

Why it matters: The NFT launch is a positive sign for the HYPE token, increasing user engagement and liquidity on the platform. However, there were security issues when eight NFTs worth $400,000 were stolen, showing some risks remain. Technical indicators suggest the price is stabilizing between $44 and $50, but volatility could be coming soon. (Bitcoinist)

2. Cathie Wood Compares Hyperliquid to Solana (September 29, 2025)

What happened: Cathie Wood, CEO of ARK Invest, compared Hyperliquid’s growth to Solana’s early success. She pointed to Hyperliquid’s programmable layer (launched in February 2025) and its open asset listings. The platform also introduced USDH, a stablecoin backed by U.S. Treasury bonds, which supports trading pairs like HYPE/USDH and uses Dutch auction listings.

Why it matters: Wood’s endorsement adds credibility and attracts institutional investors, supporting Hyperliquid’s growth in decentralized finance (DeFi). However, competition is heating up, especially from Aster, a rival platform backed by former Binance team members, which briefly surpassed Hyperliquid’s weekly trading volume after its token launch. (Bitcoinist)

3. Warning About $12 Billion Token Unlock (September 22, 2025)

What happened: Maelstrom Fund warned that nearly $12 billion worth of HYPE tokens (237.8 million tokens) will be unlocked starting November 29, 2025. This means about $500 million worth of tokens could enter the market each month. Currently, buybacks only cover about 17% of this supply, leaving a $410 million monthly surplus that could put downward pressure on the price.

Why it matters: This large token unlock could hurt the price unless demand grows enough to absorb the new supply. After a strong 19.5% rally over 90 days, HYPE’s price might stall or drop if selling pressure increases. Traders are closely watching the $44 price level; if it breaks, the price could fall into the $30 range. (Maelstrom Fund)

Conclusion

Hyperliquid is experiencing rapid growth driven by its NFT success and institutional interest, but it faces challenges from a large upcoming token unlock and competition from other platforms. While the Hypurr NFTs and Cathie Wood’s support highlight its leadership in DeFi, the token unlock in November will be a critical test for investor confidence. Will Hyperliquid’s daily revenue of $2.4 million and expanding ecosystem be enough to handle $500 million in monthly selling pressure?


What is expected in the development of HYPE?

Hyperliquid is moving forward with key developments planned for late 2025:

  1. USDH Stablecoin Launch (Q4 2025) – Proposals from Paxos and Frax aim to use USDH revenue to buy back HYPE tokens.
  2. HIP-3 Permissionless Markets (Q4 2025) – Users can create new markets by staking 1 million HYPE tokens and earn a share of the fees.
  3. HyperSwap UX Upgrade (Q4 2025) – A smoother experience for swapping tokens and moving assets across blockchains.
  4. Cross-Chain Automation (Q4 2025) – Integration with Reactive Network to offer automated trading features like liquidation protection and dollar-cost averaging.

Deep Dive

1. USDH Stablecoin Launch (Q4 2025)

Overview:
Hyperliquid is preparing to launch USDH, a stablecoin designed to maintain a steady value. Two proposals are in play: one from Paxos, which would use 95% of the interest earned on USDH reserves to buy back HYPE tokens, and another from Frax Finance, which would direct all earnings back to the community. The goal is to increase liquidity and create stronger incentives within the Hyperliquid ecosystem.

What this means:
This is positive news for HYPE holders because the revenue from USDH could speed up token buybacks, reducing the number of tokens available and potentially increasing their value. However, there are risks, including regulatory challenges and competition from well-established stablecoins like USDC.

2. HIP-3 Permissionless Markets (Q4 2025)

Overview:
HIP-3 will let anyone create new perpetual markets by staking 1 million HYPE tokens. Market creators can earn up to half of the trading fees. This feature could expand trading options beyond cryptocurrencies to include assets like foreign currencies and commodities.

What this means:
This development could attract more traders and generate more fees, which is good for HYPE. On the downside, if markets are not well managed, users might face higher risks from price swings or market manipulation.

3. HyperSwap UX Upgrade (Q4 2025)

Overview:
HyperSwap is getting a user-friendly redesign that makes it easier to swap tokens and move assets across different blockchains. It will integrate with services like Gelato and Stargate to reduce delays and costs in cross-chain transactions.

What this means:
This upgrade could encourage more people to use HyperSwap, which would benefit HYPE. Success depends on how well the new features work and how competitors like Uniswap respond.

4. Cross-Chain Automation (Q4 2025)

Overview:
By integrating with Reactive Network, Hyperliquid will offer automated trading tools that respond to market events. Features like protection against forced liquidations and gasless token swaps could appeal to professional traders and institutions.

What this means:
This is a strong positive for HYPE, as it adds valuable tools for advanced users. However, relying on third-party technology like Reactive Network introduces some risks if that service experiences issues.

Conclusion

Hyperliquid’s roadmap aims to boost the usefulness of HYPE through new products like USDH and HIP-3, improve user experience with HyperSwap, and attract institutional traders with automation features. While these plans could increase demand for HYPE, success depends on smooth execution and market conditions.

Will Hyperliquid’s community-driven approach help it outpace centralized competitors in bringing the next generation of DeFi users on board?


What updates are there in the HYPE code base?

Hyperliquid’s technology is advancing with important upgrades and new features that expand its ecosystem.

  1. USDH Stablecoin Integration (September 2025) – A native stablecoin that uses 50% of protocol revenue to buy back tokens.
  2. HIP-3 Permissionless Markets (August 2025) – Developers can create new markets by staking 1 million HYPE tokens and earn fees.
  3. CoreWriter Module (August 2025) – Allows Ethereum-compatible apps to interact directly with HyperCore’s orderbook.

Deep Dive

1. USDH Stablecoin Integration (September 2025)

Overview: The Hyperliquid Foundation introduced USDH, a stablecoin designed to work seamlessly with the Hyperliquid protocol. Half of the protocol’s revenue is used to buy back HYPE tokens, which helps reduce the total supply over time.
This update lets users mint and burn USDH directly through smart contracts, reducing the need to rely on external stablecoins like USDC. The system also shares fees with HYPE token holders and liquidity providers.
Why it matters: This is a positive development for HYPE because it increases the usefulness of the Hyperliquid platform in decentralized finance (DeFi) and creates a deflationary effect by using revenue to buy back tokens. (Source)

2. HIP-3 Permissionless Markets (August 2025)

Overview: HIP-3 lets developers launch new perpetual markets by staking 1 million HYPE tokens. They can earn up to 50% of the trading fees generated by these markets.
The system enforces rules like collateral requirements, risk management, price feeds (oracles), and liquidation limits to keep markets secure and stable.
Why it matters: This feature encourages growth in the Hyperliquid ecosystem by allowing more market creation. However, there is some risk if low-quality markets are launched, which could affect the token’s value. Overall, this is a neutral to positive update. (Source)

3. CoreWriter Module (August 2025)

Overview: CoreWriter enables decentralized applications (dApps) built on Ethereum-compatible networks to interact directly with HyperCore’s orderbook using special precompiled contracts. This removes the need for slower cross-chain bridges.
The technology reduces delays to under half a second for actions like adjusting trading positions and liquidations.
Why it matters: This is a strong positive for HYPE because it makes the platform more flexible and attractive to developers, especially those working on derivatives trading. (Source)

Conclusion

Hyperliquid’s recent updates focus on growing the ecosystem (HIP-3), improving compatibility with other platforms (CoreWriter), and creating lasting value for token holders (USDH). With over 180 projects already building on its blockchain, the question remains: can HYPE maintain its lead against competitors like Aster?