Why did the price of LDO fall?

Lido DAO (LDO) dropped 0.61% over the past 24 hours to $1.10, extending its one-week decline to 7.85%. The main reasons behind this include:

1. Technical resistance – LDO couldn’t break above the $1.29 Fibonacci level
2. Institutional selling – Paradigm Capital moved $8.4 million worth of LDO to exchanges
3. Regulatory uncertainty – Ongoing legal risks from a May court ruling in California

Deep Dive

1. Technical Resistance (Negative Impact)

Overview: LDO is facing strong resistance around the $1.36 level, based on a common technical analysis tool called the Fibonacci retracement. Currently, the price is below key moving averages (7-day average: $1.23, 200-day average: $1.14), and the MACD indicator shows bearish momentum.

What this means: When LDO tried to rise above $1.29 on September 23, it failed, triggering stop-loss orders that pushed the price down further. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 40.36, which suggests the coin might be oversold and could stabilize near $1.09, the recent low point.

Key level: If LDO closes below $1.09, it risks falling further toward the 200-day moving average support around $1.14.

2. Institutional Selling Pressure (Negative Impact)

Overview: On September 24, Paradigm Capital transferred 10 million LDO tokens (worth $8.4 million) to exchanges (EmberCN). Paradigm has a history of selling after buying tokens at lower prices ($0.76 in 2021).

What this means: Large investors selling their holdings puts immediate downward pressure on the price. In the past, Paradigm’s selling in November 2023 was followed by a 13% drop in LDO’s price.

What to watch: Keep an eye on exchange inflow and outflow data through platforms like CryptoQuant to see if selling continues.

3. Regulatory Overhang (Mixed Impact)

Overview: A California court ruling in May 2025 stated that Lido DAO members could be legally responsible as a “general partnership” (CCN). This doesn’t directly affect how the protocol works but creates uncertainty around the value of governance tokens like LDO.

What this means: This ruling adds legal risk for LDO holders, especially those in the U.S. However, Lido’s introduction of Dual Governance in July, which gives stETH holders veto power, helps reduce concerns about central control.

Conclusion

LDO’s recent price drop is due to technical challenges, significant selling by big investors, and ongoing legal uncertainties, all happening alongside a weaker overall crypto market (which fell 0.64% in total value). While oversold signals suggest prices might stabilize soon, a sustained recovery will likely depend on renewed demand for Ethereum staking and clearer legal guidelines for DAOs.

Key watch: The Federal Reserve’s September 25 meeting results—rate cuts could boost altcoin trading. Also, follow Lido’s Tokenholder Update Call for updates on the protocol’s health.

What could affect the price of LDO?

Lido DAO (LDO) is currently balancing between improvements to its protocol and challenges from market pressures.

1. New Governance System – stETH holders now have veto power, reducing risks in decision-making (positive)
2. Institutional Selling – Over $45 million worth of LDO tokens moved to exchanges since July, increasing supply pressure (negative)
3. Ethereum ETF Impact – Growing interest in ETH staking through BlackRock’s proposed ETF could increase total value locked (TVL) (mixed)

Deep Dive

1. Governance Changes & Token Supply (Mixed Impact)

Overview: In July 2025, Lido introduced a Dual Governance system. This allows stETH holders to veto proposals by depositing tokens, which helps reduce concerns about centralization but adds some complexity. At the same time, 36% of LDO tokens are still held in the DAO treasury (Lido docs). Recently, institutions have sold about $48 million worth of LDO, which could temporarily increase token supply and put downward pressure on prices.

What this means: The governance improvements are good for the long-term health of the protocol. However, if large amounts of tokens from the treasury or big holders (like Paradigm’s recent sale of 10 million LDO tokens (source)) flood the market, prices might stay low until demand catches up.

2. Regulatory Support & Growing Competition (Positive)

Overview: In August 2025, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) clarified that “ministerial” liquid staking activities are not considered securities. This helped LDO’s price jump 58% in one month. However, Lido’s share of Ethereum staking dropped to 24.4% as competitors like Coinbase and Figment expand their services (Cryptotimes).

What this means: Clearer regulations remove a big uncertainty for LDO. Still, to stay competitive, Lido needs strong partnerships—such as with BlackRock’s upcoming ETH ETF. Every 1% increase in total value locked (TVL) adds roughly $410 million in staked assets, which directly increases fee revenue for Lido.

3. Market Sentiment & Technical Outlook (Neutral)

Overview: LDO’s price tends to follow Ethereum’s movements closely, with a correlation of 0.89. Currently, LDO is testing support at $1.10 (its low for 2025), and its Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 40.36, indicating it’s somewhat oversold. If the price moves above the 30-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $1.23, it could trigger short sellers to cover their positions, pushing the price higher.

What this means: Ethereum’s strong rally in July helped LDO recover, but a weakening Altcoin Season Index (down 36% since August) suggests investors might shift money back to Bitcoin, limiting LDO’s upside potential.

Conclusion

LDO’s future depends on successfully managing token supply, including potential buybacks (proposed here), while taking advantage of favorable regulatory changes. Keep an eye on the DAO treasury’s vote on August 28 about using stETH revenue to buy back LDO tokens—if approved, this could trigger a sharp price increase. The key question is whether Lido can maintain decentralization while offering enough incentives to investors as competition in Ethereum staking heats up.

What are people saying about LDO?

Lido DAO is making headlines with profit gains and changes in governance, but big investors are still selling off. Here’s what’s trending:

1. Price target of $2.55 after the first profitable month
2. Dual Governance system gives more power to stETH holders
3. Emergency oracle vote prevents potential risks to the protocol
4. Paradigm Capital sells $8.4M worth of LDO tokens
5. Price battle at $1.00 resistance level

Deep Dive

1. @johnmorganFL: $2.55 Rally Forecast – Bullish

"LDO up 70% weekly as Lido turns profitable ($1M August profit vs. $153M loss in 2022). A breakout from a descending wedge pattern points to $2.55."
– @johnmorganFL (92K followers · 1.2M impressions · 2025-08-12 14:10 UTC)
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What this means: Positive outlook – Lido DAO’s first profit since 2021 improves its value story. Its fully diluted valuation compared to total value locked (FDV/TVL) is 0.04, which is lower (better) than competitors like EigenLayer at 0.15.

2. @LidoFinance: Dual Governance Live – Mixed

"Stakers can now veto proposals or trigger a 'rage quit' – locking 1% of stETH delays votes, locking 10% blocks all governance."
– @LidoFinance (310K followers · 850K impressions · 2025-06-30 17:48 UTC)
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What this means: Neutral – This change increases decentralization by giving stETH holders more control but also slows down decision-making. Delays of up to 45 days could make it harder to quickly update the protocol.

3. @WuBlockchain: Oracle Compromise Contained – Bullish

"Emergency vote replaced a compromised Chorus One node after a key leak. The protocol’s total value locked ($38 billion) stayed safe."
– @WuBlockchain (890K followers · 2.1M impressions · 2025-05-11 13:06 UTC)
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What this means: Positive – The system’s multi-signature security design worked well, handling the crisis without affecting stakers or the protocol’s assets.

4. Institutional Exodus – Bearish

Paradigm Capital sold 10 million LDO tokens worth $8.4 million in June, part of a larger $45.6 million institutional sell-off from wallet 0xC4Db.
– Via WuBlockchain (2025-06-10 01:49 UTC)
What this means: Negative – Early investors are cashing out profits. Paradigm bought LDO at around $0.76 and sold at about $1.10, locking in gains.

5. Technical Crossroads – Mixed

The price hit resistance at $1.00 in June 2025, forming a double-top pattern, but a 45% rally in July suggests buyers are accumulating at the $0.88 support level.
– Via CoinMarketCap Analysis
What this means: Neutral – The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 44, indicating there’s room for price recovery. However, $1.50 remains a major resistance point, still 38% below the all-time high.

Conclusion

The outlook for Lido DAO is mixed. While the protocol shows promising developments and profitability, institutional investors continue to sell off their holdings. Keep an eye on the August 14 Tokenholder Call for updates on staking economics and whether the total value locked (TVL) can stay above $38 billion. Future price movements may depend heavily on Ethereum’s performance, especially after decisions on the ETHA staking ETF.

What is the latest news about LDO?

Lido DAO is riding a wave of positive momentum and adapting to changing regulations as Ethereum staking continues to grow. Here’s a quick update:

1. Profitability Milestone (August 12, 2025) – Lido reports its first $1 million profit, signaling potential for steady growth.
2. Record TVL & Buyback Proposal (August 15, 2025) – With $41 billion locked in, plans emerge to reduce LDO token supply through buybacks.
3. Staking Share Declines Amid ETF Optimism (August 14, 2025) – Lido’s market share drops, but BlackRock’s upcoming Ethereum ETF could boost demand.

In-Depth Look

1. Profitability Milestone (August 12, 2025)

What happened:
Lido DAO achieved its first monthly profit of $1 million in August 2025, reversing several years of losses (it lost $191 million in 2021 and $153.8 million in 2022). This turnaround is largely due to increased interest in liquid staking, especially as Ethereum’s price jumped 126% since June. Experts like Ali Martinez predict LDO could reach $2.55, noting that Lido’s valuation compared to its locked assets is attractive versus competitors.

Why it matters:
This profit milestone makes LDO a stronger candidate for investors looking for decentralized finance (DeFi) projects that generate cash flow. However, continued success depends on Ethereum’s price staying stable and how Lido adjusts its fees. (CoinMarketCap)

2. Record TVL & Buyback Proposal (August 15, 2025)

What happened:
Lido’s Total Value Locked (TVL) reached a new high of $41 billion, helped by Ethereum’s price climbing to $4,792. Lido’s community is discussing a “triggerable buyback” plan, which would use revenue from stETH (Lido’s staking token) to buy back LDO tokens, potentially lowering the number of tokens available on the market.

Why it matters:
A buyback could help control inflation since LDO has a maximum supply of 1 billion tokens. But there are risks in how this plan would be carried out. The proposal still needs approval from Lido’s decentralized autonomous organization (DAO), with a vote expected by November. Technical analysis shows positive momentum but warns of resistance at $1.63. (Crypto.news)

3. Staking Share Declines Amid ETF Optimism (August 14, 2025)

What happened:
Lido’s share of Ethereum staking dropped to 24.4% from 32.3% in 2023, as competitors like Figment gained market share. However, BlackRock’s planned Ethereum ETF, which includes staking features, could increase demand for Lido’s services.

Why it matters:
While competition is squeezing Lido’s market position, clearer regulations from the SEC (issued in May 2025) and partnerships with big institutions could help Lido bounce back. Also, having less than 33% market share reduces concerns about centralization, which Ethereum developers have flagged. (Crypto Times)

Conclusion

Lido DAO is balancing strong fundamentals like profitability and TVL growth with challenges from competitors and token supply issues. The next few months will be critical, especially with the potential buyback plan and BlackRock’s ETF launch. The big question: can institutional investments through ETFs make up for Lido’s shrinking share of Ethereum staking?

What is expected in the development of LDO?

Lido DAO’s roadmap is focused on improving governance and upgrading its protocol. Here are the key upcoming milestones:

1. Dual Governance Activation (July 2025) – stETH holders will gain the power to veto proposals.
2. CSM v2 Rollout (July–August 2025) – This update decentralizes limits on node operators and introduces a way to identify stakers.
3. Triggerable Withdrawals (Q4 2025) – Allows anyone to initiate validator exits without needing permission, using EIP-7002.

Deep Dive

1. Dual Governance Activation (July 2025)

Overview: Starting July 4, 2025, stETH holders can delay or block proposals approved by LDO token holders. If holders deposit 1% of the stETH supply, it triggers a delay of 5 to 45 days before a proposal passes. Depositing 10% triggers a “rage quit,” pausing governance until dissenting stETH holders leave.

What this means:

• Positive: This reduces the risk of governance being controlled by a small group, aligning the interests of both LDO and stETH holders.
• Neutral: The system is complex and might slow down decisions, but it aims to make the protocol stronger over time (Lido Governance).

2. CSM v2 Rollout (July–August 2025)

Overview: The Community Staking Module version 2 will raise the limit on how much stake a single node operator can control to 10%. It also adds a way to identify stakers to prevent fake or duplicate accounts (known as sybil attacks).

What this means:

• Positive: This helps decentralize the network by allowing more diverse validators, which could attract more ETH stakers.
• Risk: Having more node operators might make coordination harder at first (Lido Governance).

3. Triggerable Withdrawals (Q4 2025)

Overview: Using Ethereum’s EIP-7002 upgrade, this feature lets any user trigger validator exits through Lido’s smart contracts. This reduces dependence on centralized parties to approve withdrawals.

What this means:

• Positive: Improves resistance to censorship and supports Ethereum’s goal of trustless operation, which could increase stETH’s popularity.
• Neutral: The success depends on Ethereum’s overall upgrade schedule and how well validators coordinate.

Conclusion

Lido DAO’s roadmap emphasizes decentralization and giving users more control through governance and technical improvements. These changes aim to strengthen Lido’s role in liquid staking, but challenges remain in execution and adapting to Ethereum’s ongoing development. The big question is how Lido will manage growth while keeping the network decentralized and secure.

What updates are there in the LDO code base?

Lido DAO’s software updates boost decentralization and security through improved governance and protocol features.

1. CSM v2 Launch (July 2025) – Community staking limits increased to 10%, allowing more users to participate.
2. Triggerable Withdrawals (July 2025) – Anyone can now initiate validator exits thanks to EIP-7002 integration.
3. Scorecard Achievement (July 2025) – Lido fully meets Ethereum’s decentralization standards.

In-Depth Look

1. CSM v2 Launch (July 2025)

What it is:
The Community Staking Module (CSM) version 2 raises the maximum stake that community members can hold from 5% to 10%. It also introduces updated settings and a system to identify stakers.

Why it matters:
This change encourages more people to take part in Ethereum validation, reducing dependence on large institutional operators. It includes safeguards to prevent abuse and ensure fair access.

Impact:
This is positive for Lido DAO (LDO) because it spreads out control among more participants, lowering centralization risks and making the network stronger. (Source)

2. Triggerable Withdrawals (July 2025)

What it is:
With the integration of EIP-7002, any user can now trigger a validator to exit through the withdrawal contract, removing the need for centralized approval.

Why it matters:
This update eliminates reliance on node operators to approve exits, aligning with Ethereum’s goal of trustless, permissionless operations. Validator exits are now open and resistant to censorship.

Impact:
This is neutral for LDO—it improves decentralization but adds some complexity for casual users. Still, it strengthens Lido’s role as a leader in non-custodial staking. (Source)

3. Scorecard Achievement (July 2025)

What it is:
Lido has completed all items on its decentralization Scorecard, including features like Dual Governance and rage-quit options.

Why it matters:
The Scorecard confirms Lido meets Ethereum’s decentralization standards. Important features include a 3-day review period for stETH holders on proposals and veto powers with specific thresholds (1% for delays, 10% for rage quit).

Impact:
This is positive for LDO as it reduces risks of governance takeover, making the protocol more appealing to institutional investors who prioritize security. (Source)

Conclusion

Lido’s software upgrades focus on decentralization, empowering users, and enhancing security—key factors for maintaining its leadership in liquid staking. The adoption of EIP-7002 and CSM v2 reflects Ethereum’s move toward permissionless systems, while the Scorecard milestone shows Lido’s growing maturity. As competitors like Rocket Pool and EigenLayer develop, it will be interesting to see how these improvements affect Lido’s market position.