Why did the price of PENDLE fall?
Pendle (PENDLE) dropped 1.5% in the last 24 hours, underperforming the overall crypto market, which fell just 0.25%. Even though decentralized finance (DeFi) adoption and the total value locked (TVL) in Pendle remain strong, recent price weakness and profit-taking after gains caused this dip.
- Technical Signals – The price fell below important moving averages, indicating downward momentum.
- Profit-Taking – TVL grew 52% over four months, but some traders may be cashing out short-term profits.
- Market Sentiment – The Crypto Fear & Greed Index at 34/100 shows cautious investor sentiment.
Deep Dive
1. Technical Weakness (Bearish Impact)
PENDLE’s price dropped below its 7-day simple moving average (SMA) of $4.72 and 30-day exponential moving average (EMA) of $4.89. The MACD indicator (-0.055) confirms this downward trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 43.14 suggests the coin is somewhat oversold but not in extreme territory. The next support level is at $4.55, based on Fibonacci retracement. If this breaks, the price could fall further to $4.31, the low from September 27.
What this means: Traders who use technical analysis likely sold after the price failed to stay above $4.64, increasing selling pressure.
2. TVL Growth vs. Price Divergence (Mixed Impact)
Pendle’s Total Value Locked (TVL) reached $13 billion on September 25 (CryptoPotato), a 52% increase since May 2025. However, the PENDLE token price has dropped 9.5% this week.
What this means: While the growing TVL shows more users and trust in the platform, some investors might be selling to lock in profits after Pendle’s 28% gain so far this year. The market cap to TVL ratio (~0.06) suggests the token could still be undervalued if usage continues to grow.
3. Sector-Wide DeFi Headwinds (Neutral Impact)
The Altcoin Season Index fell 4.35% this week, with major DeFi tokens like AAVE and UNI down 3-5%. Pendle’s 24-hour trading volume dropped 32.7% to $45.2 million, matching a broader decline in crypto trading activity (spot volume down 51%).
What this means: Pendle is affected by wider market trends, as investors may be moving funds into Bitcoin (which gained 0.15% dominance in 24 hours) due to uncertainty in the economy.
Conclusion
PENDLE’s recent price drop is due to a combination of technical selling and cautious sentiment in the DeFi sector, despite strong underlying fundamentals. Keep an eye on the $4.55 support level and developments in Plasma integration (like Ethena’s USDe markets) for signs of a rebound.
Key watch: Will Pendle stay above its 200-day EMA at $4.42 to avoid a deeper correction?
What could affect the price of PENDLE?
Pendle is advancing in yield innovation while adapting to changing regulations.
- Expanding Yield Products – The new Boros platform targets a $150 billion+ market for perpetual contracts, boosting Pendle’s revenue potential (The Defiant).
- Attracting Institutions – With $13 billion in total value locked (TVL) and the launch of Citadels, Pendle is positioned to welcome traditional finance (TradFi) investments (CryptoPotato).
- Impact of Federal Reserve Policy – Recent interest rate cuts may reduce on-chain yields, challenging Pendle’s appeal for fixed-rate returns (Crossing the Midcurve).
Deep Dive
1. Growth in Yield Derivatives (Positive Outlook)
What’s happening: Pendle’s Boros platform, launched in August 2025, allows users to trade Bitcoin and Ethereum perpetual funding rates. It has already handled $183 million in trading volume, tapping into a market worth over $150 billion. The platform also plans to expand into real-world assets like U.S. Treasury bills through the thBILL integration (Theo Network).
Why it matters: Even capturing just 1% of this large market could add over $1.5 billion to Pendle’s revenue-generating assets. Adding real-world assets like tokenized Treasury bills helps diversify income sources beyond cryptocurrencies, which could help stabilize Pendle’s value during market downturns.
2. Institutional Adoption (Mixed Impact)
What’s happening: Pendle’s Citadels program, launched in Q3 2025, offers yield products that meet Know Your Customer (KYC) and Sharia compliance standards, aiming to attract regulated financial institutions. However, 87% of PENDLE tokens are held by a small number of large holders (“whales”), which could lead to price swings if they decide to sell (CryptoNewsLand).
Why it matters: Institutional investments could reduce selling pressure because many tokens are locked up long-term (37% of supply is staked as vePENDLE). But the concentration of ownership means the market is vulnerable to large, coordinated sales. It’s important to watch how many tokens remain locked and the activity of whale wallets.
3. Effects of Federal Reserve Rate Cuts (Potential Risk)
What’s happening: The Federal Reserve’s rate cut in September 2025 lowered risk-free interest rates, shrinking the difference between Pendle’s fixed yields (for example, 6% annual percentage yield on OUSD) and traditional savings accounts. Pendle’s sUSDe token yields dropped from 14.6% to 8.3% after the announcement (Crossing the Midcurve).
Why it matters: With smaller yield advantages, demand for Pendle’s tokenized yield products may decline, especially if traditional finance interest rates rise again. Still, Pendle offers over 40% APY to liquidity providers through vePENDLE staking, which could keep crypto-focused users engaged despite broader market changes.
Conclusion
Pendle’s future price depends on balancing growth from institutional investors with maintaining competitive yields amid changing interest rates. While Federal Reserve policies may create short-term challenges, Pendle’s innovations in derivatives and real-world assets offer promising long-term opportunities. Monitoring Boros’ trading volume will be key to seeing if Pendle’s growth can outpace these macroeconomic headwinds.
What are people saying about PENDLE?
Pendle’s innovative approach to earning yields has traders feeling both excited and cautious. Here’s what’s happening right now:
- Institutions are buying up PENDLE as total value locked (TVL) hits $13 billion
- A surge in yield-loop activity is driving optimistic price predictions
- Technical charts show mixed signals after a 25% price jump in August
Deep Dive
1. @pendle_fi: Yield Platform Reaches $13B TVL – Positive Outlook
"Crossing $13B TVL shows Pendle’s strength as a key player in DeFi yield management" – TN Lee, Pendle CEO (Sep 25, 2025)
– 1.2M followers · 850K impressions · 2025-09-25
Read more
What this means: This is a strong sign of growth, especially as big institutions adopt Pendle’s products like Boros (which tokenizes real-world asset yields) and Citadels (which offers regulated access). Pendle now manages 31% of on-chain assets alongside other major platforms like Morpho and Maple (The Defiant).
2. @MichaelEWPro: $160 Price Target – Optimistic
"If PENDLE holds support at $4, it could rise to between $29 and $160" (Jun 9, 2025)
– 89K followers · 312K impressions · 2025-06-09
See full analysis
What this means: The technical outlook is positive but depends on PENDLE breaking through a downward resistance level. The 200-day moving average at $3.49 is an important support point to watch.
3. @Spotonchain: Large Wallet Moves Create Volatility – Neutral
$4.65 million worth of PENDLE moved to Binance after a 25% price increase (Aug 8, 2025)
– 420K followers · 2.1M impressions · 2025-08-08
View details
What this means: Neutral – big holders often adjust their positions. Since the wallet still holds $135 million in PENDLE, this looks like strategic liquidity management rather than a sell-off.
Conclusion
Overall, the outlook for PENDLE is mostly positive, supported by a 35% month-over-month increase in TVL to $13 billion and Ethena’s USDe integration, which makes up 60% of deposits. However, technical indicators show the asset is somewhat overbought (daily RSI at 71.92) and facing resistance near $5.25. Keep an eye on the TVL-to-market-cap ratio (currently 0.1265); if it rises above 0.15, PENDLE might be undervalued. With Boros launching real-world asset markets in Q4, Pendle’s role in connecting traditional finance yields with DeFi remains a key story to watch.
What is the latest news about PENDLE?
Pendle is making big moves in decentralized finance (DeFi) with new partnerships and record growth. Here are the key updates:
- TVL Milestone Reached (September 25, 2025) – Pendle’s total value locked (TVL) surpassed $13 billion, strengthening its position in DeFi.
- Onchain Asset Management Growth (September 25, 2025) – Pendle manages 31% of the $35 billion onchain asset management market, according to a Keyrock/Maple report.
- Plasma Mainnet Integration (September 26, 2025) – The launch of USDe and sUSDe on Plasma’s network boosts Pendle’s yield ecosystem.
Deep Dive
1. TVL Milestone Reached (September 25, 2025)
Overview
Pendle’s TVL hit $13.3 billion, thanks to its unique approach of turning future yield into tradeable tokens and partnerships with Binance, Aave, and Ethena. The protocol now controls about half of the DeFi yield market, with $58 billion in fixed-yield derivatives processed.
What this means
This shows growing confidence from big investors in Pendle’s platform for structured yield products. However, competition from platforms like Morpho (with $8.28 billion TVL) and heavy reliance on stablecoins (which make up 83% of TVL) could be risks if yields drop.
(Cryptopotato)
2. Onchain Asset Management Growth (September 25, 2025)
Overview
A report by Keyrock and Maple Finance shows Pendle manages $8.3 billion in assets, which is 31% of the $35 billion onchain asset management sector. Automated yield vaults lead with $18 billion, but discretionary strategies have grown 738% year-to-date.
What this means
Pendle is benefiting as DeFi becomes a trusted alternative to traditional finance. Still, there’s risk because most of the capital (70-99%) comes from a small group of large investors, which can cause price swings.
(The Defiant)
3. Plasma Mainnet Integration (September 26, 2025)
Overview
Ethena launched USDe and sUSDe on Plasma’s Bitcoin-backed Layer 1 network, and Pendle plans to add yield products for these assets. Aave has already put $950 million into liquidity pools for USDe and sUSDe, with Pendle’s principal and yield token markets expected by October.
What this means
This move expands Pendle’s presence across multiple blockchains and connects its yield ecosystem to Plasma’s $10 billion valuation. The success depends on continued demand for fixed-rate products as USDe supply reaches $14 billion.
(Crypto.News)
Conclusion
Pendle is solidifying its role as a key player in DeFi’s yield market by growing TVL, attracting institutional investors, and expanding across blockchains. While this is positive for Pendle’s fee structure and governance token ($PENDLE), it’s important to watch risks like concentration of capital and reliance on stablecoins. Can Pendle keep its 50% share of the yield market as traditional finance players enter tokenized real-world assets?
What is expected in the development of PENDLE?
Pendle’s roadmap is focused on growing its structured yield products and attracting institutional investors.
- Boros Funding Rate Expansion (Q4 2025) – Increasing trading limits for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) perpetual funding rate markets.
- Citadels Launch (Q4 2025) – Offering regulated, compliant yield products designed for institutions.
- Multi-Chain Growth (2026) – Expanding to new blockchains like Solana, TON, and Hyperliquid.
Deep Dive
1. Boros Funding Rate Expansion (Q4 2025)
Overview:
Boros is Pendle’s platform for trading perpetual futures funding rates, a type of financial contract related to cryptocurrencies. The plan is to raise the limits on how much can be traded for BTC and ETH markets. Currently, Boros sees about $35 million in daily trading volume and $183 million in total value traded on the Arbitrum network (Pendle Finance).
What this means:
This is a positive sign for PENDLE because it taps into a large derivatives market valued over $150 billion. However, success depends on keeping attractive yield spreads (the difference between borrowing and lending rates). There are risks, including potential regulatory challenges as these funding-rate products become more complex.
2. Citadels Launch (Q4 2025)
Overview:
Citadels is Pendle’s upcoming product aimed at institutional investors. It will offer yield products that comply with regulations like Know Your Customer (KYC) and Shariah law. This move supports Pendle’s growth, with total value locked (TVL) reaching $9.3 billion (NullTX).
What this means:
This development is somewhat positive. Institutional investors could bring steady demand, but relying on centralized controls might reduce Pendle’s appeal as a fully decentralized finance (DeFi) platform.
3. Multi-Chain Growth (2026)
Overview:
Pendle plans to expand its services to other blockchains such as Solana, TON, and Hyperliquid. This follows successful integration with HyperEVM, which reached $515 million in TVL within 2.5 weeks. Recent moves include launching USDe pools on BNB Chain and cross-chain products on Avalanche, showing growing momentum (Ethena Labs).
What this means:
This is a positive step for wider adoption, but success depends on how well Pendle can manage technical challenges like bridging assets between blockchains and encouraging liquidity on each platform.
Conclusion
Pendle is evolving from a crypto-focused yield protocol into a multi-chain platform that appeals to institutional investors. Key challenges include navigating regulatory issues with Boros and competing in real-world asset (RWA) yield markets. The big question remains: How will Pendle balance its decentralized roots with the demands of institutional clients as Citadels launches?
What updates are there in the PENDLE code base?
Pendle’s development has been focused on growing its yield infrastructure and connecting with institutional investors.
- Boros Launch (August 6, 2025) – On-chain trading of funding rates using Yield Units.
- HyperEVM Integration (July 30, 2025) – Multi-chain yield markets with $515 million in total value locked (TVL) in just 2.5 weeks.
- Citadels Initiative (July 17, 2025) – KYC and Shariah-compliant structured products designed for institutions.
Deep Dive
1. Boros Launch (August 6, 2025)
Overview: Boros lets users trade the funding rates for BTC and ETH perpetual contracts through Yield Units (YUs). This means users can gain exposure to crypto derivatives markets in a tokenized form.
Pendle launched Boros on the Arbitrum network, setting initial limits of $10 million open interest per pool and offering 1.2x leverage. It builds on Pendle’s existing Yield Token (YT) system but focuses specifically on funding rates from exchanges like Binance. Liquidity providers earn swap fees, PENDLE token rewards, and a share of the protocol’s revenue.
What this means: This is a positive development for PENDLE because it taps into the massive $150 billion daily derivatives market. It attracts traders looking for hedging or speculative opportunities and increases fee revenue for the protocol. (Source)
2. HyperEVM Integration (July 30, 2025)
Overview: Pendle expanded to Hyperliquid’s HyperEVM, launching liquidity pools for tokens like Hyperbeat USDT and kHYPE, with 500,000 Hearts tokens rewarded to liquidity providers.
This integration enables easy bridging between Ethereum, BeraChain, and HyperEVM through Stargate Finance, greatly improving cross-chain liquidity.
What this means: This is good news for PENDLE because it broadens its ecosystem across multiple Layer 2 networks, making it more accessible and helping grow the total value locked (TVL). (Source)
3. Citadels Initiative (July 17, 2025)
Overview: Pendle launched Citadels, a regulated platform that gives institutions access to fixed-yield products, aligning decentralized finance (DeFi) yields with traditional finance standards.
This initiative includes KYC/AML compliance and Shariah certification, aiming to attract institutional capital into Pendle’s $8.8 billion TVL ecosystem.
What this means: This is a neutral development for PENDLE. While it could bring in large institutional investors, the added regulatory requirements might slow adoption compared to crypto-native users. (Source)
Conclusion
Pendle’s recent updates show a clear strategy to grow in three areas: derivatives trading (Boros), multi-chain scalability (HyperEVM), and institutional adoption (Citadels). These moves increase Pendle’s usefulness but also require balancing DeFi’s open, permissionless nature with the demands of traditional finance compliance. How Pendle’s vePENDLE governance navigates these challenges will be key to its future success.