Why did the price of ONDO fall?

Ondo (ONDO) dropped 1.24% in the past 24 hours, underperforming the overall crypto market, which fell by 1.04%. This decline was driven by weakness across altcoins, challenges overcoming technical resistance levels, and a muted market response to its partnership involving the USDY stablecoin.

1. Altcoin liquidity squeeze – Investors shifted funds to Bitcoin as altcoin dominance hit multi-week lows.
2. Technical resistance hurdles – ONDO failed to break above the $0.80–$0.83 range, leading to profit-taking.
3. Limited impact from news – The $50 million USDY collateralization by STBL did not trigger sustained buying interest.

In-Depth Analysis

1. Altcoin Liquidity Drain (Negative Impact)

Overview:
Bitcoin’s market dominance increased to 58.49% (up 0.66% in 24 hours), while the Altcoin Season Index dropped 30% over the week to 38 out of 100. Open interest in derivatives fell by 5.15%, indicating traders reduced their exposure to altcoins.

What this means:
Like many mid-sized altcoins, ONDO faced selling pressure as investors moved capital into Bitcoin amid a cautious market mood. The crypto Fear & Greed Index stayed at a neutral 42, showing neither panic nor strong optimism.

What to watch:
If Bitcoin falls below its key support level of $53,000, selling pressure on altcoins like ONDO could increase.

2. Technical Resistance Holds (Negative Impact)

Overview:
ONDO attempted to break above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.8032 but failed to maintain that level. The MACD indicator turned negative (-0.012), signaling downward momentum.

What this means:
Traders likely took profits near this resistance zone. The 7-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 46.24 shows no sign of an oversold bounce. The 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.905 now serves as a more distant resistance level.

Key level to watch:
A close below $0.78, the current pivot point, could push ONDO toward $0.713, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.

3. Muted Market Reaction to USDY Partnership (Mixed Impact)

Overview:
On October 10, STBL.com announced it would use Ondo’s USDY stablecoin as collateral for issuing $50 million in USST tokens. This news briefly boosted sentiment. However, on October 11, USST briefly lost its peg, dropping to $0.96 on Curve, raising concerns about the stability of the collateral.

What this means:
While expanding USDY’s use cases is positive in the long run, the market remains cautious about execution risks. ONDO’s trading volume fell 5% after the announcement, indicating weak follow-through buying.

Conclusion

ONDO’s recent decline reflects broader altcoin fatigue and profit-taking after failing to gain technical momentum, compounded by a lukewarm market response to its stablecoin partnership. Although the real-world asset (RWA) narrative remains promising, traders are waiting for clearer positive signals.

Key point to watch: Can USDY’s supply (currently $625 million) grow through new partnerships to support Ondo’s vision of treasury tokenization?

What could affect the price of ONDO?

ONDO’s price is caught between growing demand for real-world assets (RWA) and the gradual unlocking of tokens.

1. Token Unlock Schedule – 85% of ONDO’s tokens are still locked, with slow unlocks planned through 2028, which could increase supply and put downward pressure on price.
2. RWA Adoption Surge – Partnerships with big financial firms like BlackRock and JPMorgan, plus ETF filings, are driving more institutional interest.
3. Regulatory Moves – SEC decisions on crypto-related ETFs, such as 21Shares’ proposal, could either boost liquidity or cause price swings.

Deep Dive

1. Token Unlock Dynamics (Potential Downside)

Overview:
More than 85% of ONDO’s total 10 billion tokens are locked up, with major unlocks scheduled through 2028. Private sale investors, who hold about 12.9% of the supply, have a 12-month waiting period before their tokens start unlocking gradually. The ecosystem growth pool, which is 52.1% of the supply, will release 24% of its tokens at launch and then continue unlocking quarterly over four years.

What this means:
In the short term, as early investors and team members gain access to their tokens, there could be selling pressure that weighs on the price. However, the unlock schedule is designed to avoid flooding the market all at once. Similar tokens like $APT and $AXS experienced 20-30% price drops after big unlock events (Ondo Foundation).

2. Real-World Asset Momentum (Potential Upside)

Overview:
Ondo’s tokenized U.S. Treasuries products (OUSG, USDY) currently hold $1.38 billion in total value locked (TVL). Recent developments include STBL minting $50 million USST using USDY as collateral. The filing of a 21Shares ETF that tracks ONDO via the CME CF Index, along with partnerships with traditional finance leaders, shows growing institutional support.

What this means:
If the ETF gets approved, it could bring significant traditional finance capital into ONDO, similar to the inflows seen with Bitcoin ETFs. Even a 1% shift of the $25 billion tokenized RWA market toward Ondo could mean about $250 million in new demand. Technical analysis also looks promising: ONDO is holding above the key 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at $0.83, and a breakout above $1.10 could push the price toward $1.59 (DonOfCharts).

3. Regulatory & Macro Risks (Mixed Effects)

Overview:
The SEC’s upcoming decision on the 21Shares ONDO ETF, filed in July 2025, along with broader crypto regulations, could influence market sentiment. At the same time, rising U.S. Treasury yields (4.8% as of October 2025) put pressure on yield-generating RWAs like USDY.

What this means:
If the ETF is rejected or delayed, it might cause short-term selling. However, Ondo’s focus on regulatory compliance—highlighted by its acquisition of Oasis Pro and SEC-registered entities—positions it well for the long term. While higher interest rates could reduce RWA yields, they may also encourage investors to look at crypto as an alternative source of yield.

Conclusion

ONDO’s future depends on balancing the increased token supply from unlocks with growing demand for real-world assets. Keep an eye on the October 31 SEC commentary deadline for the 21Shares ETF—approval could spark a big liquidity boost, while delays might test the $0.83 support level. For investors, the key question is whether institutional inflows can outpace the rate of token unlocking.

What are people saying about ONDO?

The Ondo (ONDO) community is buzzing about potential price moves, ETF news, and long-term bets on real-world assets (RWA). Here’s a quick summary:

1. Traders are watching for a breakout between $0.95 and $1.00 after a period of price consolidation.
2. A recent ETF filing by 21Shares is driving optimism, with some aiming for a price near $1.94.
3. Some predictions suggest prices as high as $10, but these clash with current market realities.

Deep Dive

1. @CryptoPulse_CRU: Breakout from a Downward Channel Looks Positive

“ONDO is consolidating in a descending channel. If it holds support between $0.84 and $0.88, it could bounce toward $1.00.”
– @CryptoPulse_CRU (12.3K followers · 38K impressions · 2025-09-05 05:15 UTC)
View original post
What this means: This is a positive sign for ONDO. When prices break out of a descending channel, it often leads to a 15–30% rally. Staying above the 200-day moving average ($0.84) suggests investors are accumulating ONDO, possibly setting up for a retest of its August high at $1.17.

2. @BlockNests: Bullish Flag Pattern Points to $2.00

“ONDO is up 5.35% with a bullish flag forming above the 50-day moving average, targeting $1.14 to $2.00.”
– @BlockNests (8.7K followers · 24K impressions · 2025-09-03 11:33 UTC)
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What this means: Bull flags usually continue the previous upward trend. Since ONDO rose 61% in Q3 2025, this pattern suggests more gains ahead. A daily close above $0.95 would confirm this bullish setup.

3. CCN: 21Shares ETF Filing Could Boost ONDO by 75%

“ONDO jumped 61% after the ETF filing. Analysts predict it could reach $1.94 if momentum continues.” (source)
What this means: ETF approvals often lead to big price jumps, sometimes between 50% and 100%. The 21Shares filing shows growing institutional interest in ONDO’s focus on real-world assets. However, final approval from the SEC is still uncertain.

4. AMBCrypto: Warning Signs at $1.08 Resistance

“Chaikin Money Flow indicates money is flowing out despite a 14% weekly gain.” (source)
What this means: This is a cautionary signal. A Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) below -0.05 suggests selling pressure. If ONDO can’t break above the $1.17 resistance, it might stay stuck between $0.85 and $1.17 until new catalysts appear in Q4.

Conclusion

The outlook for ONDO is mixed. Technical indicators lean toward a price increase, but broader economic challenges and upcoming token unlocks (6.5 billion tokens through 2028) could slow momentum. Keep an eye on the $1.08 resistance level: closing above it on a weekly basis would be a strong bullish sign, while rejection could mean more sideways trading. Ultimately, adoption of real-world assets—currently with $1.38 billion in total value locked (TVL)—will likely shape ONDO’s price action in the coming months.

What is the latest news about ONDO?

Ondo is gaining momentum by partnering with stablecoin projects and earning recognition from institutional investors, but it still faces some technical challenges. Here’s the latest update:

1. STBL Chooses USDY for $50M Stablecoin Mint (October 11, 2025) – This partnership expands Ondo’s role in tokenized U.S. Treasury assets.
2. Grayscale Adds ONDO to Its DeFi Fund (October 9, 2025) – ONDO replaces MakerDAO (MKR), showing growing institutional trust in real-world asset (RWA) projects.
3. White House Highlights Ondo in Tokenization Report (July 31, 2025) – Government attention adds credibility amid a volatile market.

Deep Dive

1. STBL Chooses USDY for $50M Stablecoin Mint (October 11, 2025)

What happened:
STBL.com selected Ondo’s USDY token—a yield-generating token backed by U.S. Treasury bonds—as the main collateral to mint up to $50 million of their USST stablecoin. This allows users outside the U.S. to earn dollar-based yields while following regulatory rules through blockchain governance.

Why it matters:
This is a positive sign for ONDO because increased demand for USDY could boost activity in Ondo’s ecosystem. However, right after the announcement, USST briefly lost its $1 peg, dropping to $0.96 on the Curve platform. This shows the risks of liquidity issues when stablecoins are backed by real-world assets. (Yahoo Finance)

2. Grayscale Adds ONDO to Its DeFi Fund (October 9, 2025)

What happened:
Grayscale, a major institutional investor, updated its DeFi Fund by removing MakerDAO (MKR) and adding ONDO. Now, ONDO makes up 19.1% of the fund, alongside Uniswap (32.3%) and Aave (28.1%). This reflects growing confidence in tokenized assets.

Why it matters:
This is a neutral to positive development. Institutional backing from firms like Grayscale boosts ONDO’s credibility. However, the crypto market’s Fear & Greed Index is at 42 (Neutral), indicating cautious investor sentiment that might slow price gains. (Crypto.News)

3. White House Highlights Ondo in Tokenization Report (July 31, 2025)

What happened:
Ondo’s approach to tokenizing real-world assets was featured in the White House report Strengthening American Leadership in Digital Financial Technology. The report praised Ondo’s compliant method of connecting traditional finance (TradFi) with decentralized finance (DeFi).

Why it matters:
This is a long-term positive. Clearer regulations could speed up institutional adoption of Ondo’s technology. Still, ONDO’s price has dropped 24% over the past month, while Bitcoin dominance rose 58.6%, showing that broader market challenges are currently outweighing sector-specific progress. (OndoFinance)

Conclusion

Ondo’s partnerships and regulatory support position it as a leader in real-world asset tokenization. However, overall market caution and technical risks are slowing its momentum. The key question remains: will growing stablecoin collateral backed by real assets balance out the wider crypto market’s liquidity challenges?

What is expected in the development of ONDO?

Ondo’s roadmap is focused on growing its tokenized asset offerings and expanding its ecosystem:

1. Ondo Stocks Launch (Q4 2025) – Introducing tokenized U.S. stocks and ETFs through the Global Markets platform.
2. Second Wave Points Program (Q4 2025) – Expanding partnerships to offer more rewards within the ecosystem.
3. Ondo Chain Enhancements (2026) – Developing a secure, institutional-grade blockchain to connect real-world assets (RWAs) across platforms.
4. ETF Regulatory Progress (2026) – Awaiting SEC decision on 21Shares’ spot ETF tied to Ondo’s treasury.
5. Global Markets Alliance Expansion – Working with 25+ partners to standardize infrastructure for real-world assets.

Deep Dive

1. Ondo Stocks Launch (Q4 2025)

Overview: Ondo plans to offer tokenized U.S. stocks and ETFs through its Global Markets platform. This combines traditional financial market liquidity with blockchain accessibility. This move follows Ondo’s acquisition of Oasis Pro, an SEC-registered broker-dealer, which provides the necessary regulatory framework.
What this means: This is a positive step for ONDO, as it broadens the use of tokenized real-world assets and could attract institutional investors. However, there are risks like regulatory challenges and competition from established financial platforms.

2. Second Wave Points Program (Q4 2025)

Overview: Building on previous rewards programs for USDY and Flux users, Ondo will partner with other decentralized finance (DeFi) projects to offer cross-platform incentives.
What this means: This could increase user engagement and ecosystem growth. However, if the points program isn’t closely linked to ONDO staking or governance, it might weaken the token’s value.

3. Ondo Chain Development (2026)

Overview: Ondo Chain is a new blockchain built on Cosmos SDK and compatible with Ethereum (EVM). It aims to connect private, permissioned financial networks (like JPMorgan’s blockchain) with public DeFi platforms. Planned upgrades include improved governance and the ability to transfer assets across different blockchains.
What this means: This is a promising long-term development, as institutional adoption of tokenized assets depends on secure and compliant infrastructure. Success will depend on technical execution and onboarding partners.

4. 21Shares ETF Decision (2026)

Overview: The SEC is reviewing a spot ETF application from 21Shares, which would track a reference rate backed by Ondo’s treasury. Approval could open the door for ONDO to be recognized as a yield-generating asset, similar to how Bitcoin ETFs gained acceptance.
What this means: This is a high-risk, high-reward situation. Approval would boost ONDO’s legitimacy but faces regulatory hurdles, especially since DeFi-based products are still viewed cautiously.

Conclusion

Ondo’s roadmap aims to bridge traditional finance (TradFi) and decentralized finance (DeFi) through regulated tokenization. Near-term milestones include launching tokenized equities and expanding ecosystem rewards. While partnerships and infrastructure improvements strengthen Ondo’s position in real-world assets, regulatory approval for ETFs and tokenized stocks remains a key factor to watch. Ondo’s focus on compliance could give it an edge over competitors like Chainlink or Maple Finance in the evolving tokenized asset space.

What updates are there in the ONDO code base?

Ondo is making big strides in building top-tier infrastructure for real-world assets (RWA) aimed at institutional investors, while also expanding its overall ecosystem.

1. Developer Activity & Compliance Tools (July 2025) – GitHub activity jumped 40%, focusing on audits and compliance features.
2. Ondo Chain Launch (Feb 2025) – Rolled out a new Layer-1 blockchain designed for regulated asset tokenization.
3. Strangelove Labs Acquisition (July 2025) – Brought in new talent and tech to speed up cross-chain RWA development.

Deep Dive

1. Developer Activity & Compliance Tools (July 2025)

What happened: In July 2025, Ondo’s developer activity on GitHub increased by 40%, with a focus on improving smart contract audits and building tools to meet regulatory requirements for institutional clients.

The team worked on integrating KYC (Know Your Customer) and AML (Anti-Money Laundering) checks into the tokenization process and improved the ability to move assets across different blockchains, such as tokenized U.S. Treasuries. They also enhanced test environments for regulated users.

Why it matters: This is positive news for ONDO because stronger compliance features make it easier for traditional financial institutions (TradFi) to adopt Ondo’s platform. Better security audits also reduce risks associated with smart contracts.
(Source)

2. Ondo Chain Launch (Feb 2025)

What happened: Ondo launched Ondo Chain, a new Layer-1 blockchain built on Cosmos SDK, designed specifically for regulated trading of real-world assets.

Key features include:

• Validators are authorized institutions only, ensuring regulatory compliance.
• Staking backed by tokenized real-world assets like Treasuries.
• Cross-chain bridging powered by Chainlink’s CCIP for seamless asset transfers.

Why it matters: While the impact on ONDO’s price may be limited in the short term due to the time it takes enterprises to adopt new tech, this launch is a strong long-term positive. Ondo Chain aims to connect traditional finance liquidity with decentralized finance (DeFi) innovation.
(Source)

3. Strangelove Labs Acquisition (July 2025)

What happened: Ondo acquired Strangelove Labs, a blockchain infrastructure company, to strengthen its engineering team and accelerate development of cross-chain RWA solutions.

This acquisition brought in expertise in interoperability protocols and custom blockchain deployments. Jack Zampolin, former CEO of Strangelove, now leads Ondo’s product team.

Why it matters: This is a positive development for ONDO because it signals faster progress in building compliant asset issuance across multiple blockchain ecosystems like Ethereum, Solana, and Cosmos.
(Source)

Conclusion

Ondo is clearly focusing on building institutional-grade infrastructure for tokenized real-world assets, combining strong regulatory compliance with DeFi’s flexibility. While these updates might take some time to reflect in ONDO’s price, they strengthen its position in the growing $53 billion+ tokenized asset market. One interesting question remains: how will Ondo Chain’s validator model, which limits validators to regulated institutions, affect discussions around decentralization in regulated markets?