What could affect the price of RAY?
Raydium is caught between the growing momentum of Solana’s decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem and increasing competition from other platforms.
- LaunchLab Buybacks – Over $100 million spent repurchasing RAY tokens, generating about a 6% annual return at current prices.
- DEX Competition – Pump.fun took 44% of Solana’s memecoin trading volume, cutting into Raydium’s fee income.
- Technical Resistance – RAY’s price is struggling around the 200-day moving average ($2.99), with a key resistance level at $3.82.
Deep Dive
1. Protocol Buyback Program (Positive for RAY)
Overview:
Raydium has committed $100.4 million in 2025 to buy back and burn RAY tokens using fees collected through LaunchLab. This program burns about 2.1% of the total token supply. It uses 12% of daily protocol revenue—around $900,000 as of August—for automatic token repurchases.
What this means:
By reducing the number of tokens available, buybacks can help support the price and offset selling pressure. At current prices, these buybacks translate to roughly a 6% annual yield for holders. However, this depends on LaunchLab continuing to grow its fees by 60% month-over-month through the third quarter of 2025 (CoinMarketCap Community).
2. Memecoin Market Share Battles (Challenges Ahead)
Overview:
In July 2025, Pump.fun captured 44% of Solana’s memecoin trading volume with its easy-to-use launchpad, while Raydium’s share dropped to 27%. Memecoins make up 68% of trading activity on Solana’s decentralized exchanges (DEXs).
What this means:
This shift fragments fee revenue, putting pressure on Raydium’s token value. Pump.fun’s buyback program, totaling $138 million, now competes directly with Raydium’s efforts. Additionally, Raydium’s lower liquidity (0.13 turnover ratio compared to Uniswap’s 0.41) makes its price more volatile during market shifts (Cointelegraph).
3. Technical and Market Factors (Mixed Signals)
Overview:
RAY’s price faces resistance near the 200-day simple moving average ($2.99) and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level ($1.87). Meanwhile, Solana’s upcoming Firedancer upgrade, expected in Q3 2025, aims to increase network capacity by 10 times, which could attract more projects to Raydium.
What this means:
If RAY breaks above the $3.82 Fibonacci extension level, it could reach $4.53. But if it fails, the price might retest yearly lows around $1.05. Overall market sentiment remains cautious, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index at 30/100, increasing downside risks despite positive developments specific to Solana (Yahoo Finance).
Conclusion
Raydium’s price will depend on whether LaunchLab’s fee growth can outpace competition from memecoin platforms and broader market challenges. The $2.99 to $3.82 price range will be critical in determining if automated buybacks can overcome bearish technical trends. The key question is whether daily protocol fees can stay above $1 million through October to keep the buyback program effective.
What are people saying about RAY?
Talk around Raydium (RAY) is swinging between hopes for a price breakout and worries about a pullback. Here’s what’s trending right now:
- Price rejection at $3.80 raises bearish concerns
- Elliott Wave analysts see potential for a bullish reversal
- Listing on FTX Japan sparks a big jump in trading volume
Deep Dive
1. @ali_charts: Rejection at $3.80 could lead to 60% drop – bearish
“This recent rejection at $3.80 might push Raydium $RAY down to $1.50!”
– @ali_charts (327k followers · 1.2M impressions · 2025-09-02 23:02 UTC)
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What this means: This technical analysis points out that RAY has struggled to break above the $3.80 resistance level. If it can’t, it might trigger sell orders that could push the price down significantly.
2. @ElliottForecast: Wave II correction signals possible rally ahead – bullish
“Wave II correction is happening—Wave III, which is usually bullish, might be next. Buyers could jump in soon.”
– @ElliottForecast (41k followers · 89k impressions · 2025-09-03 03:32 UTC)
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What this means: Followers of Elliott Wave theory see the recent dip to $3.30 as a normal pullback before a possible 30% price increase.
3. @genius_sirenBSC: FTX Japan listing causes 660% spike in volume – bullish
“The surprise listing on FTX Japan unlocked Japanese yen liquidity, causing trading volumes to jump over 660%.”
– @genius_sirenBSC (18k followers · 234k impressions · 2025-06-19 13:40 UTC)
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What this means: Access to institutional investors through FTX Japan boosted liquidity for Raydium. However, recent reports show that HumidiFi is now leading Solana’s decentralized exchange (DEX) market (Cryptotimes).
4. @mkbijaksana: $6.17 target if RAY breaks $3.50 – bullish
“If Raydium breaks above $3.50, the next target is $6.17. If it fails, expect a price drop.”
– @mkbijaksana (9k followers · 67k impressions · 2025-08-27 06:52 UTC)
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What this means: The price range between $3.50 and $3.80 is crucial. A close above this zone could confirm a strong upward move.
5. Cryptonews: Buyback removes 9.5% of monthly volume – neutral
“A $200 million buyback program has taken 3.45 million RAY tokens off the market since July, reducing supply during price consolidation.”
– Cryptonews (August 18, 2025)
What this means: While the buyback reduces selling pressure, it hasn’t reversed Raydium’s 40% price decline over the past 90 days (CMC data).
Conclusion
The outlook on Raydium is mixed. There’s cautious optimism from technical analysts, but broader market concerns remain. New features like Raydium X v2 and listings on exchanges like FTX Japan have improved its utility. Still, Raydium’s share of Solana’s decentralized exchange market is shrinking, with HumidiFi gaining ground. Keep an eye on the $3.80 resistance level—a breakout above it could signal a bullish trend, while a rejection might confirm a downward pattern.
What is the latest news about RAY?
Raydium is adapting to changes in Solana’s decentralized exchange (DEX) market by aggressively buying back tokens and maintaining strong trading activity. Here are the key updates:
- HumidiFi Becomes Top Solana DEX (October 20, 2025) – This dark pool platform surpassed Raydium with $34 billion in monthly trading volume.
- $100 Million Buyback Program (October 19, 2025) – Raydium ranks fourth in token buybacks this year to help reduce token supply and support price stability.
- Strong DEX Activity During Market Volatility (October 12, 2025) – Raydium handled $1.5 billion in daily trades amid Solana’s price swings.
Deep Dive
1. HumidiFi Becomes Top Solana DEX (October 20, 2025)
What happened: HumidiFi took the lead as Solana’s largest DEX by trading volume, reaching $34 billion in October. It uses a “dark pool” system, which keeps order details hidden to prevent price slippage. This approach appeals to large institutional traders (“whales”) and draws liquidity away from open exchanges like Raydium, which uses a transparent automated market maker (AMM) model.
What it means for Raydium: This shift is a short-term challenge for Raydium (RAY), as it faces increased competition and potential loss of liquidity. However, Raydium’s strong infrastructure and user-friendly features, such as LaunchLab, may help keep smaller traders engaged. (Cryptotimes)
2. $100 Million Buyback Program (October 19, 2025)
What happened: Raydium has spent $100.4 million this year buying back and burning RAY tokens through automated processes. This places it fourth among projects doing token repurchases in 2025, behind Hyperliquid ($645 million) and LayerZero ($150 million). The buyback program uses 12% of the protocol’s fees to reduce the number of tokens in circulation.
What it means for Raydium: This is a positive sign for the long term, as buybacks help counteract RAY’s 42% price drop this year and show confidence in the platform’s revenue. Still, the buyback amount is smaller compared to some competitors, which limits its overall impact. (MEXC)
3. Strong DEX Activity During Market Volatility (October 12, 2025)
What happened: During Solana’s market turbulence in mid-October, Raydium processed $1.5 billion in daily trading volume, ranking third among Solana DEXs. Its liquidity pools helped stabilize Solana’s price rebound to $190, outperforming other Layer 1 blockchains.
What it means for Raydium: This is a neutral signal. While high trading volumes show Raydium’s usefulness, much of the activity was driven by forced trades during a market crash rather than organic growth. Maintaining a strong total value locked (TVL) of $1.74 billion remains important. (Yahoo Finance)
Conclusion
Raydium is facing challenges from HumidiFi’s focus on institutional traders and the pressures of volatile trading volumes. At the same time, its token buybacks and retail-friendly tools aim to support its position in Solana’s evolving DEX landscape. Keep an eye on weekly DEX market share and RAY token burn rates to see how Raydium adapts moving forward.
What is expected in the development of RAY?
Raydium’s development is moving forward with these key updates:
- Rewards Program Expansion (Q4 2025) – Distributing 50,000 $RAY tokens to traders and creators, with another 50,000 set aside for future rewards.
- Launchpad Fee Changes (Q4 2025) – Testing a 1.25% trading fee on new tokens like WAVE to improve liquidity.
- xStocks Liquidity Integration (2026) – Introducing tokenized stock pools to strengthen the connection between Solana’s decentralized finance (DeFi) and traditional finance (TradFi).
Deep Dive
1. Rewards Program Expansion (Q4 2025)
Overview: Raydium’s current rewards program is designed to encourage traders and content creators to engage with the platform. So far, 50,000 $RAY tokens have been distributed, with another 50,000 reserved for future incentives (Raydium.io). This program has helped increase activity, reflected in a 9.23% price jump for RAY in the last 24 hours (according to CoinMarketCap).
What this means: This is a positive sign for RAY, as rewards encourage more users to trade and create content, which in turn generates fees for the platform. However, competition from other platforms like Pump.fun, which holds 44% of the Solana memecoin market, could limit Raydium’s growth.
2. Launchpad Fee Changes (Q4 2025)
Overview: New projects such as WAVE and RUN are using Raydium’s bonding curve system with trading fees between 1.25% and 1.3%. The team is experimenting with these fees to find the right balance between attracting liquidity and maintaining competitiveness (CoinMarketCap Community).
What this means: This is somewhat positive. Lower fees could bring more projects to launch on Raydium, but if fees are too low, the platform’s daily revenue (currently about $900,000) might decrease.
3. xStocks Liquidity Integration (2026)
Overview: Raydium is partnering with xStocks to create liquidity pools for tokenized stocks, using Solana’s fast blockchain to connect decentralized finance with traditional financial markets (xStocksFi).
What this means: This is a promising long-term development, as it expands Raydium’s use cases beyond just memecoins. However, there are risks related to regulatory challenges, especially in regions where crypto is restricted (which accounts for about 27% of the crypto market).
Conclusion
Raydium’s roadmap focuses on rewarding users, adjusting fees to attract new projects, and bridging DeFi with traditional assets. These steps could increase adoption, but success depends on how well the platform handles competition and regulatory hurdles. It will be interesting to see how upgrades in the Solana ecosystem affect Raydium’s liquidity in 2026.
What updates are there in the RAY code base?
Raydium’s latest updates focus on improving liquidity options and growing its ecosystem.
- CPMM & Token22 Support (August 20, 2025) – New fee structures and token standards to help creators.
- V3 Beta Protocol (July 8, 2025) – Combines automated market makers (AMMs) with OpenBook’s order book for better liquidity.
- LaunchLab Pool Tools (April 16, 2025) – Easier token launches with customizable options.
Deep Dive
1. CPMM & Token22 Support (August 20, 2025)
Overview: Raydium upgraded its Constant Product Market Maker (CPMM) to support Token22, an improved token standard on the Solana blockchain. It also revamped its Burn & Earn program.
Creators can now set transfer fees and enforce royalties using Token22, which helps reduce fake tokens. The Burn & Earn update allows projects to lock liquidity provider (LP) tokens permanently while still earning fees. After this update, 0.05–0.10% of trading fees go to creators in SOL (Solana’s native token).
What this means: This is positive for Raydium (RAY) because it encourages creators to stay committed long-term, lowers the risk of scams, and attracts better-quality token launches. The improved fee-sharing could also boost Raydium’s revenue.
(Source)
2. V3 Beta Protocol (July 8, 2025)
Overview: The V3 Beta release integrates OpenBook’s order book directly into Raydium’s AMM pools. This allows liquidity to be shared across different decentralized exchanges (DEXs) on Solana.
Key features include hybrid liquidity routing, which checks both AMM pools and order books, and smart contracts that remain compatible with older versions. Developers can create pools with flexible fees ranging from 0.01% to 1%, and traders gain access to about 40% more liquidity.
What this means: This update is neutral to positive for RAY. More liquidity improves trading, but success depends on how widely OpenBook is adopted. Projects benefit from needing 85% less capital to create pools.
(Source)
3. LaunchLab Pool Tools (April 16, 2025)
Overview: LaunchLab introduced tools for permissionless token launches that automatically migrate to AMMs once they reach 85 SOL in liquidity.
The update added asymmetric bonding curves and no-code templates, cutting launch times to under 5 minutes. By May 2025, over 35,000 tokens had launched using this system, though only 0.62% made it to exchanges.
What this means: This is good news for RAY as it strengthens Raydium’s position in Solana’s memecoin market. However, the low number of tokens reaching exchanges shows the speculative nature of many launches. Fees from LaunchLab now exceed those from regular token swaps.
(Source)
Conclusion
Raydium’s ongoing development focuses on deeper liquidity, better incentives for creators, and maintaining its lead in Solana’s decentralized finance (DeFi) space. With the V3 hybrid model and Token22 support, RAY is positioned to attract more serious projects. The big question is whether integrating OpenBook will help Raydium grow its total value locked (TVL) steadily, especially given regulatory challenges in major markets.
Why did the price of RAY go up?
Raydium (RAY) increased by 1.18% in the last 24 hours, which is less than the overall crypto market’s 2.15% gain. Despite this, there are two main positive factors supporting RAY:
- Buyback Activity – Raydium spent $100.4 million on buying back RAY tokens in 2025, which reduces the number of tokens available.
- Decentralized Exchange (DEX) Volume Growth – Solana’s DEX platforms handled $8 billion during recent market ups and downs, increasing RAY’s usefulness.
- Technical Price Recovery – The price stabilized around $1.84 after being oversold, based on a common market indicator called RSI (Relative Strength Index) at 33.95.
Deep Dive
1. Buyback Program (Positive for RAY)
Overview: In 2025, Raydium dedicated $100.4 million to buyback and burn RAY tokens, ranking 4th among crypto projects for such activity (MEXC News). This program uses 12% of the fees collected by the platform to buy back tokens, reducing the supply by about 1.6 million tokens each month.
What this means: By buying back tokens, Raydium lowers selling pressure and improves the overall health of the token’s economy. This has helped RAY hold up better during market downturns. At current prices, the buyback program offers an annualized yield of about 6%, which means holders face less risk of their tokens losing value compared to some competitors like Hyperliquid.
What to watch: Keep an eye on daily buyback amounts—consistent purchases over $110,000 per day could indicate strong accumulation and confidence.
2. Solana DEX Activity (Mixed Impact)
Overview: During October’s market volatility, Solana-based decentralized exchanges processed $8 billion in trades. Raydium accounted for $1.5 billion of that, or 19% of the total (Yahoo Finance). However, another platform called HumidiFi has surpassed Raydium as the top Solana DEX by volume, handling $34 billion monthly compared to Raydium’s $21.9 billion.
What this means: While Raydium benefits from the growth of decentralized finance (DeFi) on Solana, HumidiFi’s rise as a preferred platform for large institutional trades could divert some high-value activity away from Raydium. Although RAY’s 24-hour trading volume jumped 28.8% to $40.4 million, its turnover ratio (trading volume relative to market cap) remains low at 0.0789, compared to Uniswap’s 0.41. This suggests Raydium has thinner liquidity, meaning it might be harder to buy or sell large amounts without affecting the price.
3. Technical Rebound (Neutral Impact)
Overview: RAY’s price bounced back from an oversold condition (RSI around 34.29 over 7 days) and moved above the $1.84 support level. However, it still trades below important moving averages: the 30-day simple moving average (SMA) at $2.51 and the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $2.95.
What this means: The 1.18% price increase looks like a short-term recovery in a longer downtrend, as RAY has dropped 39% over the past 30 days. Other technical indicators like the MACD histogram (-0.047) and resistance at $1.87 (based on Fibonacci retracement levels) suggest limited upside unless new positive news or events occur.
Conclusion
Raydium’s recent price rise is supported by its buyback program reducing token supply and increased activity on Solana’s DEX platforms. However, competition from HumidiFi and relatively low liquidity limit how much the price can grow right now. For RAY to keep gaining, it needs to stay above the $1.84 level and attract more buying interest.
Key point to watch: Will RAY break above the 30-day EMA at $2.51 this week, or will the resistance near $1.87 cause traders to take profits?