Why did the price of RAY go up?
Raydium (RAY) increased by 1.95% in the last 24 hours, outperforming the overall crypto market, which rose 1.46%. This growth is driven by ongoing token buybacks, expansion in the Solana ecosystem, and signs of a technical price rebound.
- Buyback program – Raydium uses swap fees to buy back and burn tokens, reducing supply
- Solana DeFi growth – RAY benefits from Solana’s record $12.27 billion total value locked (TVL)
- Technical bounce – Oversold indicators suggest a possible short-term price recovery
Deep Dive
1. Buyback Momentum (Positive Impact)
Overview: Raydium continuously uses 100% of its swap fees to buy back and burn RAY tokens, which lowers the total number of tokens available. Since 2024, this program has taken millions of RAY out of circulation.
What this means: By reducing supply, buybacks can help support the token’s price. This also aligns the protocol’s earnings with the value of RAY. Currently, RAY is trading 53% below its 30-day average price of $3.34, so buybacks help stabilize the price during market downturns.
What to watch: Keep an eye on daily buyback amounts—currently averaging about $110K—and whether these increase with trading volume.
2. Solana Ecosystem Strength (Positive Impact)
Overview: Solana’s decentralized finance (DeFi) sector reached a record $12.27 billion in total value locked (TVL) as of September 2025. Raydium, as the leading decentralized exchange (DEX) on Solana, saw 32% monthly growth in TVL.
What this means: RAY’s performance reflects the growing adoption of Solana’s DeFi ecosystem. Major projects like Jupiter and Jito rely on Raydium’s liquidity services, which boosts fee income and demand for staking RAY tokens. Despite market challenges, the network handled $21.9 billion in transaction volume last month.
3. Technical Rebound Setup (Mixed Impact)
Overview: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for RAY is at 34.03, indicating the token is oversold. The price remains above a key support level at $2.68, based on Fibonacci retracement.
What this means: Traders might be buying at what they see as a good value, but other indicators like the MACD histogram (-0.078) still show downward momentum. A price move above $3.08 (the 7-day moving average) could signal a potential trend reversal.
Conclusion
RAY’s recent gains highlight its important role as Solana’s liquidity provider and its deflationary nature through buybacks. However, technical signals suggest caution until stronger bullish momentum appears. Key point to watch: Can RAY stay above the $2.75 support level amid concerns about shifts in altcoin markets? Also, keep an eye on developments around Solana ETFs and Raydium’s LaunchLab for clues on future direction.
What could affect the price of RAY?
Raydium’s price is caught between Solana’s growth potential and competitive challenges.
- LaunchLab Fee Growth – $900K in daily fees help fund RAY buybacks, easing downward price pressure.
- Solana ETF Buzz – Approval of Solana ETFs could bring more investment into RAY through the broader ecosystem.
- Regulatory Challenges – Restrictions in the US and UK block about 27% of possible user growth.
Deep Dive
1. LaunchLab Adoption & Buybacks (Positive for RAY)
Overview: Raydium’s LaunchPad now generates $900,000 in daily fees, surpassing its swap revenue. Part of these fees is used to buy back RAY tokens regularly. More than 35,000 tokens have launched using its bonding curve model, pushing protocol revenue up 137% year-over-year as of July 2025.
What this means: These buybacks remove roughly 3.45 million RAY tokens each month (about 1.3% of the total supply), which helps reduce the number of tokens in circulation and supports the price. If fee growth continues at 60% quarter-over-quarter, it could offset selling pressure from token unlocks or bearish market trends. However, a competing memecoin called Pump.fun holds 44% of Solana’s memecoin market, which could divert user activity away from Raydium (CoinMarketCap Community).
2. Solana ETF & Network Upgrades (Mixed Effects)
Overview: Solana’s total value locked (TVL) reached $12.27 billion in September 2025, up 57% since June. Raydium accounts for 32% of Solana’s decentralized exchange (DEX) volume. The SEC’s decision on Solana ETFs, expected in October 2025, along with the Firedancer upgrade (which speeds up transaction finality by 100 times), could attract more capital to the network.
What this means: Historically, when Solana rallies due to ETF news, tokens like RAY tend to benefit. RAY’s price movement closely follows SOL, with a 90-day correlation of 0.89. However, network outages or delays in ETF approval could cause sell-offs. Currently, RAY’s technical indicators show weak momentum (RSI at 34, MACD at -0.11), meaning it needs SOL’s strength to break the $3.68 resistance level (Solana Crossroads 2025).
3. Regulatory & Liquidity Risks (Negative for RAY)
Overview: Raydium is blocked in the US and UK, cutting off access to about $1 trillion in regulated capital. Its turnover ratio (0.13) is much lower than Uniswap’s (0.41), which increases the risk of price slippage during volatile market conditions.
What this means: These geographic restrictions limit Raydium’s adoption to about 73% of the global crypto market. Lower liquidity makes the token more vulnerable to price drops: for example, in August, the $3.05 support level was tested twice during a 10% price decline. Until solutions like cross-chain bridges or regulatory compliance tools are developed, RAY remains exposed to changes in regional policies (MEXC News).
Conclusion
Raydium’s future depends on balancing the positive momentum from Solana’s ETF developments with LaunchLab’s success in monetizing token launches, all while navigating regulatory hurdles. Buybacks and institutional interest in SOL provide some price support, but limited liquidity and geopolitical risks could keep RAY’s price range-bound for a while. The key question is: can RAY’s daily fees keep growing at 60% if the altcoin market cools down?
What are people saying about RAY?
Talk around Raydium (RAY) swings between hopes for a price breakout and worries about a pullback. Here’s what’s trending right now:
- Price could hit $6.17 if RAY breaks above $3.50 – a positive technical sign
- Big investors (whales) are buying during a 10% dip – strong support at $3.05
- Warning of a drop to $1.50 – price rejected at $3.80 resistance level
- Elliott Wave III may be forming – mixed signals near key support levels
- $200 million in buybacks reduce supply – a bullish factor that could push prices up
Deep Dive
1. Resistance Breakout Test – Bullish
@mkbijaksana notes:
"RAY is trying to break resistance around $3.50... aiming for $6.17"
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What this means: If RAY breaks above $3.50, it could trigger a buying frenzy (known as FOMO), pushing prices higher toward $6.17. However, if it fails, the price could drop as much as 45% down to $2.00 support.
2. Whale Accumulation – Bullish
According to AMBCrypto:
"RAY dipped 10%, but whale activity suggests a possible bullish reversal at $3.05"
View analysis
What this means: Large investors are buying during the dip, which could stabilize the price. This is a cautiously positive sign but depends on continued buying interest.
3. Rejection Risks – Bearish
@ali_charts warns:
"Rejection at $3.80 could push RAY down to $1.50!"
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What this means: This is a bearish outlook, suggesting a potential 58% drop if RAY can’t hold above $2.85. However, this sharp drop prediction isn’t strongly supported by on-chain data.
4. Wave Analysis – Mixed Signals
@ElliottForecast explains:
"Wave II correction is ongoing—Wave III, which is bullish, may follow near support"
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What this means: This analysis suggests some downside (5-15%) before a possible upward move. The key support zone is between $2.90 and $3.10.
5. Buyback Impact – Bullish
Cryptonews reports:
"3.45 million RAY tokens removed through buybacks... price target $3.70 with volume support"
View report
What this means: Buybacks reduce the number of tokens available, which can increase price if demand stays strong. About 9.5% of tokens are burned monthly, which is a positive sign, especially if Solana’s decentralized finance (DeFi) activity picks up.
Conclusion
The outlook for Raydium (RAY) is mixed. There’s potential for a strong price breakout if it can clear the $3.50 resistance level, supported by buybacks and whale buying. However, risks remain from broader challenges in the Solana ecosystem. Watching RAY’s share of Solana decentralized exchange (DEX) trading volume—currently 71% of $1.16 billion daily—and the Altcoin Season Index (71 as of September 24) can help confirm the trend.
What is the latest news about RAY?
Raydium is capitalizing on Solana’s growing decentralized finance (DeFi) scene through token buybacks and platform improvements, though market signals suggest potential price swings. Here’s a quick summary of the latest developments:
- Buyback Efforts Ramp Up (September 17, 2025) – Raydium uses fees from trades to buy back and burn RAY tokens, reducing the total supply.
- Strong Growth in Total Value Locked (TVL) (August 28, 2025) – Raydium’s TVL increased by 32% in one month, reinforcing its key role in Solana’s DeFi ecosystem.
- Launch of V3 Beta (July 8, 2025) – The new version combines automated market maker (AMM) features with an order book to reduce trading costs and improve liquidity.
Detailed Overview
1. Buyback Efforts Ramp Up (September 17, 2025)
What’s happening: Raydium is part of a wider trend in 2025 where crypto projects buy back their own tokens to support prices. It dedicates 12% of fees collected from trades to automatically buy and burn RAY tokens. Since early 2025, this has removed about 9.5% of the tokens traded over the past 30 days from circulation.
Why it matters: Regular buybacks can help reduce selling pressure and improve the token’s value over time, especially if more people use the platform. However, since buybacks depend on trading activity, their effectiveness is tied to how busy the market is. (Millionero Magazine)
2. Strong Growth in Total Value Locked (TVL) (August 28, 2025)
What’s happening: Raydium’s TVL reached $1.8 billion in August 2025, growing 32% from the previous month. This growth is fueled by the expanding DeFi market on Solana. Raydium handles about $1.16 billion in daily trading volume, accounting for over half of Solana’s decentralized exchange (DEX) activity.
Why it matters: A rising TVL shows that more users trust and use Raydium’s platform, which is a positive sign. However, RAY’s price dropped 16% over the past week, indicating that market prices don’t always immediately reflect underlying growth. Closer ties with real-world assets (RWA) and institutional investors on Solana could help align price with fundamentals. (Bitget)
3. Launch of V3 Beta (July 8, 2025)
What’s happening: Raydium’s V3 Beta combines the benefits of AMM liquidity pools with OpenBook’s order book system. This hybrid approach allows users to trade across different platforms with less slippage (price changes during trades). It also adds smart routing to find the best prices and lets anyone create new liquidity pools with customizable fees.
Why it matters: These upgrades could attract bigger players like institutions by making trading more efficient and flexible. However, success depends on how well OpenBook gains popularity, especially since other decentralized exchanges are competing for users. (CoinMarketCap Community)
Conclusion
Raydium’s strategy of buying back tokens and upgrading its platform strengthens its position as a key liquidity provider on Solana. Still, challenges like broader market conditions and competition remain. The big question is whether Raydium’s revenue from trading fees can outpace selling pressure from token unlocks, or if RAY’s price will continue to follow Solana’s overall market trends.
What is expected in the development of RAY?
Raydium (RAY) is making steady progress with several key developments planned:
- LaunchPad Expansion (Q4 2025) – Growing token launches by improving bonding curves and making it easier to move liquidity.
- Rewards Program Enhancements (Ongoing) – Offering better incentives to traders and content creators to keep them engaged.
- V3 Protocol Upgrades (2025) – Integrating more deeply with OpenBook and optimizing liquidity to improve trading.
- Fee Structure Adjustments (Testing Phase) – Experimenting with trade fees for new tokens to find the right balance.
Deep Dive
1. LaunchPad Expansion (Q4 2025)
Overview:
In 2025, Raydium’s LaunchLab helped launch over 35,000 tokens, but only about 0.62% of these tokens make it to external exchanges. The platform plans to expand its bonding curve system, which helps set token prices and manage liquidity, aiming to raise the minimum liquidity needed for projects (for example, 85 SOL for projects like WAVE) and make launching tokens smoother.
What this means:
This is positive for RAY because more activity on LaunchLab generates fees—up to $900,000 daily as of August 2025. About 12% of these fees are used to buy back RAY tokens, supporting the price. However, the low success rate of tokens graduating to bigger exchanges shows there’s a risk of many speculative projects that might weaken the overall ecosystem.
2. Rewards Program Enhancements (Ongoing)
Overview:
Raydium offers live rewards to traders and creators to encourage them to stay active on the platform. Recent improvements include referral bonuses and reward levels that change based on how much users trade or engage with content.
What this means:
This is somewhat positive for RAY. The rewards program helped push the price up by 21% in July 2025. Still, its long-term success depends on keeping users engaged, especially with competitors like Pump.fun, which took 44% of Solana’s memecoin market in Q3 2025.
3. V3 Protocol Upgrades (2025)
Overview:
Raydium’s V3 Beta, launched in May 2024, combines traditional automated market maker (AMM) pools with OpenBook’s order book system. This hybrid model includes smart order routing and tools that let anyone create liquidity pools without permission.
What this means:
This upgrade is good news for RAY if more users adopt it. It could reduce price slippage (the difference between expected and actual trade prices) by about 40% and attract bigger projects, like xStocks’ tokenized stocks. However, success depends on OpenBook’s popularity and how quickly developers build on the platform.
4. Fee Structure Adjustments (Testing Phase)
Overview:
Raydium is testing different trade fees, such as charging 1.25% for new tokens like WAVE, to find a balance between rewarding creators and keeping trading affordable.
What this means:
This is neutral for RAY. Lower fees might bring in more projects but reduce immediate revenue. Higher fees could discourage smaller projects from launching, which might slow down LaunchLab’s growth.
Conclusion
Raydium’s future depends on balancing fee-driven growth from LaunchLab with technical improvements to strengthen its role as Solana’s main liquidity provider. Challenges include regulatory restrictions affecting 27% of the crypto market and competition from other platforms. If Raydium successfully leverages Solana’s upcoming Firedancer upgrade, it could improve scalability significantly.
A key question remains: How will RAY’s buyback program (which repurchased 2.1 million tokens in July 2025) hold up alongside LaunchLab’s fee income during volatile market conditions?
What updates are there in the RAY code base?
Raydium has rolled out important updates to improve liquidity and token features on its platform.
- Token22 Integration (August 20, 2025) – Added support for Solana’s Token22 standard, including built-in transfer fees.
- V3 Beta Protocol (July 8, 2025) – Combined Raydium’s liquidity pools with OpenBook’s order book for better market depth.
- LaunchLab Fee Flexibility (July 16, 2025) – Allowed creator fees to be paid in SOL and introduced dual-token fee options.
Deep Dive
1. Token22 Integration (August 20, 2025)
What happened: Raydium now supports Solana’s Token22 standard, which lets projects add features like transfer fees directly within its automated market maker (AMM) pools.
This means creators can set fees on token transfers (for example, 1% per transaction) without needing extra tools. It also makes it easier for newer Solana tokens to work smoothly on Raydium.
Why it matters: This is good news for Raydium (RAY) because it attracts more projects with advanced token features, potentially increasing platform use. Traders will also find it easier to swap newer tokens with fewer hurdles.
(Source)
2. V3 Beta Protocol (July 8, 2025)
What happened: The V3 Beta update introduced a hybrid liquidity system that merges Raydium’s AMM pools with OpenBook’s order book data. This helps pool liquidity from more sources across Solana.
Smart order routing now checks 40% more liquidity sources, including Serum forks, to reduce price slippage. Developers can create pools with flexible fees ranging from 0.01% to 1%, which works well for both meme coins and stablecoins.
Why it matters: In the short term, this update is neutral for RAY since its success depends on how widely OpenBook is adopted. But in the long run, deeper liquidity could lead to higher trading volumes and more fees for the protocol.
(Source)
3. LaunchLab Fee Flexibility (July 16, 2025)
What happened: Creators on LaunchLab can now earn fees in SOL instead of RAY, with options to split fees between SOL and project tokens (like 50% SOL + 50% tokens).
This change simplifies how projects earn revenue and aligns incentives better, since SOL is more stable and less volatile. Liquidity providers also benefit from fees that are automatically reinvested into pools.
Why it matters: This is positive for RAY because it encourages projects to stay longer on Raydium, supporting steady platform activity.
(Source)
Conclusion
Raydium’s recent updates focus on improving compatibility (Token22), increasing liquidity (V3 Beta), and enhancing creator rewards (LaunchLab). These changes strengthen its role as a key player in Solana’s decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem. The big question: will these upgrades help RAY bounce back from its recent 15% drop as the altcoin market stabilizes?