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Why did the price of PENDLE fall?

Pendle (PENDLE) dropped 6.79% in the last 24 hours, underperforming the overall crypto market, which fell by 3.47%. This decline is linked to technical weaknesses, a cautious market mood, and a muted response to recent updates in the Pendle protocol.

  1. Technical Breakdown – The price fell below important support levels, with indicators showing oversold conditions and bearish momentum.
  2. Market-Wide Risk-Off – The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is low (29/100), and investors are moving away from altcoins, putting pressure on riskier assets.
  3. TVL Growth vs. Price Decoupling – Even though Pendle’s total value locked (TVL) reached $6 billion and $69.8 billion in yield settlements were announced on October 21, traders took profits after the price rally.

Deep Dive

1. Technical Breakdown (Bearish Impact)

Overview: Pendle’s price fell below its 30-day simple moving average (SMA) at $4.20 and its 7-day SMA at $3.20. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 31.64, indicating the asset is oversold, and the MACD indicator shows bearish momentum. The price is now testing the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $3.92.

What this means: These technical signals triggered stop-loss orders and algorithmic selling. Trading volume dropped 16.12% to $57.9 million, showing less buying interest. Open interest data suggests traders are not heavily hedging against further price drops.

What to watch: If the price closes below $3.54 (the 50% Fibonacci level), losses could extend toward $2.61, the 78.6% retracement level.

2. Market-Wide Risk Aversion (Bearish Impact)

Overview: Bitcoin’s dominance in the market rose to 59.21%, up 0.24% in 24 hours, as investors moved away from altcoins. The Altcoin Season Index dropped to 27/100, its lowest since April 2025. Total open interest in crypto derivatives also fell by 3.31% over the past week.

What this means: Pendle’s 30-day return of -35.82% shows it is a high-risk asset that is being sold more heavily during market stress. Meanwhile, stablecoins saw increased inflows, with global stablecoin supply rising by $45.3 billion in Q3 2025, reflecting a preference for safer assets.

3. TVL Growth vs. Profit-Taking (Mixed Impact)

Overview: Pendle’s TVL jumped to $6 billion after adding USDe yield markets on October 21 and launching on the Plasma network, which brought in $318 million over four days starting October 7. Despite this, the price has fallen 35% since the October 7 TVL announcement.

What this means: The price drop reflects a “sell the news” reaction, where early investors took profits after these milestones. Pendle’s 5% protocol fee and XPL rewards were not enough to counter broader market challenges.

Conclusion

Pendle’s recent price decline is due to technical selling, market rotation away from altcoins, and profit-taking following operational achievements. While the project’s real-world asset (RWA) strategy remains strong, a near-term recovery will depend on Bitcoin’s price stability and renewed interest in altcoins.

Key watch: Will Pendle hold the $3.54 Fibonacci support level? And can Ethena’s USDe integration bring fresh TVL inflows this week?


What could affect the price of PENDLE?

Pendle’s price is caught between exciting DeFi innovations and ongoing market uncertainty.

  1. Growth in Yield Protocols – With over $6 billion in total value locked (TVL) and growing use of the Boros platform, demand for Pendle could rise.
  2. Market Risks – Widespread caution in crypto and weaker performance of altcoins present challenges.
  3. Technical Outlook – The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is low (31.64), indicating Pendle might bounce back if the $3.54 support level holds.

Deep Dive

1. Momentum in Yield Innovation (Positive for Pendle)

Overview: Pendle’s TVL jumped to $8.3 billion by August 2025, driven by new products like Boros, which allows trading of tokenized funding rates, and integration with the USDe stablecoin. So far this year, the protocol has settled $69.8 billion in fixed yield transactions, aiming to tap into the massive $140 trillion traditional fixed-income market.

What this means: When TVL grows steadily, Pendle earns more fees—about $56.8 million annually—and increases the usefulness of PENDLE tokens through vePENDLE staking. Historically, quarters with over 45% TVL growth have led to Pendle price gains of 60-80% (CryptoPotato).

2. Crypto Market Challenges (Negative for Pendle)

Overview: Bitcoin’s market dominance rose to 59.23%, up 3.1% in the past month, reflecting a cautious market mood (Fear & Greed Index at 29/100). Altcoins, including Pendle, lagged behind Bitcoin, with Pendle dropping 35.75% over the last 30 days.

What this means: Pendle’s price tends to move somewhat in line with Bitcoin (correlation of -0.71), so when investors pull back from riskier crypto assets, Pendle’s price can suffer. Additionally, Pendle’s price is more sensitive to Ethereum’s movements (beta of 1.5), which can increase losses during broad selloffs (CMC Global Metrics).

3. Technical Analysis: Possible Rebound (Mixed Signals)

Overview: Pendle is trading about 26% below its 30-day average price of $4.01, with an RSI of 31.64—a level that has previously led to 20-30% price rebounds in mid-2025. However, the key support level at $3.54 (the 50% Fibonacci retracement) needs to hold; if it breaks, the price could fall toward $2.61.

What this means: If Pendle’s price closes above $3.92 (the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement), it might trigger short sellers to cover their positions, pushing the price up toward $4.39. But if $3.54 support fails, it could lead to the liquidation of $26 million in leveraged long positions below $3.20 (Technical Analysis Data).

Conclusion

Pendle’s innovative approach to real-world yield offers a bright spot amid bearish market conditions. The key price range to watch is $3.54 to $3.92—breaking out above this with daily trading volume over $50 million could signal a trend reversal. The big question remains: can Pendle’s partnerships with institutional players help it weather the current altcoin liquidity crunch?


What are people saying about PENDLE?

The Pendle (PENDLE) community is divided between excitement about potential earnings and caution over market risks. Here’s what’s currently trending:

  1. A big jump in Total Value Locked (TVL) is driving optimistic price predictions
  2. Large holders moving coins are causing concerns about price swings
  3. Technical analysis points to a possible price above $10 during the next market wave

Deep Dive

1. @johnmorganFL: TVL Growth Supports Price Increase

“Pendle Accelerates 30% as $7.7B TVL Growth Supports Price Action”
– August 8, 2025 · 4:40 PM UTC · 4.8K views
What this means: The rise in Total Value Locked (TVL) shows more people are using Pendle, which is a positive sign for PENDLE’s price. However, the current ratio of TVL to market cap (0.1265) suggests the price could still adjust as the market catches up.

2. @MichaelEWPro: Elliott Wave Analysis Predicts Mixed Outcomes

“Fibonacci targets at $10.21 and $29.25 during wave 3 buildup”
– June 9, 2025 · 6:30 PM UTC · 2.9K views
What this means: According to Elliott Wave theory, PENDLE could increase by up to 600%, reaching as high as $29. But this depends on the price staying above $3.60, which was tested on June 16. If it falls below that, the outlook becomes less certain.

3. Spot On Chain: Large Holder Sales Could Pressure Price

Pendle Finance wallet moved 900K PENDLE ($4.65M) to Binance after price surge
– August 8, 2025 · 9:50 AM UTC · 1.1K views
What this means: This move suggests some big holders might sell their coins, which could push the price down. The wallet still holds $135 million worth of PENDLE, so if selling continues, it could create downward pressure.

Conclusion

Opinions on PENDLE are mixed. On one hand, new ways to earn yield and positive technical signals are encouraging. On the other, risks from large holders selling remain a concern. Key price levels to watch are $3.60 (support) and $5.25 (resistance). Also, keep an eye on TVL trends after the Boros launch and whether the Fear & Greed Index (currently at 29) moves toward greed, which could signal stronger buying interest.


What is the latest news about PENDLE?

Pendle’s presence in decentralized finance (DeFi) is growing rapidly, with yield bridges reaching $70 billion and total value locked (TVL) surging. Here are the key updates:

  1. Fixed-Income Breakthrough (October 21, 2025) – Pendle settled $69.8 billion in tokenized yield, aiming to connect with the $140 trillion traditional fixed-income market.
  2. Plasma TVL Surge (October 8, 2025) – Pendle added $318 million in TVL within just four days after launching on Plasma, a blockchain supported by Peter Thiel.
  3. Collateral Expansion (October 3, 2025) – Euler Finance now allows borrowing against Pendle’s yield tokens, increasing liquidity options.

Deep Dive

1. Fixed-Income Breakthrough (October 21, 2025)

Overview:
Pendle has settled $69.8 billion in tokenized yield, marking an 1,100% increase compared to last year. This positions Pendle as a key player linking DeFi with the traditional fixed-income market, which is worth over $140 trillion. By partnering with Ethena’s USDe markets, Pendle users can earn stablecoin yields up to 20%, nearly twice the return of CCC-rated corporate bonds.

What this means:
This is a positive sign for PENDLE, showing its growing importance in bringing institutional investors into DeFi. By breaking down access to high-yield assets into smaller parts, Pendle could attract traditional finance investors looking for better returns. (Cryptopotato)

2. Plasma TVL Surge (October 8, 2025)

Overview:
Pendle’s TVL jumped by $318 million in just four days after launching on Plasma, a blockchain focused on stablecoins and backed by Peter Thiel. Exclusive rewards in the form of XPL tokens and partnerships with protocols like Ethena and Maple helped drive this rapid growth.

What this means:
This growth shows Pendle’s ability to scale across multiple blockchains. The strong infrastructure and aligned incentives suggest this growth could last, but there is some risk if the temporary rewards end and demand drops. (Cryptopotato)

3. Collateral Expansion (October 3, 2025)

Overview:
Euler Finance now accepts PT-tUSDe (Pendle’s principal tokens) as collateral. This lets users borrow stablecoins while still earning fixed yields, unlocking more liquidity without having to sell their assets.

What this means:
This is a cautiously positive development for PENDLE. It improves how efficiently users can use their capital, but some important risk factors, like liquidation rules, are still unclear and need to be watched carefully. (Crypto Times)

Conclusion

Pendle is establishing itself as a key infrastructure layer in DeFi, connecting traditional finance capital with crypto-native yield strategies. While growing institutional interest and multi-chain expansion are strong positives, Pendle still faces challenges from reliance on incentive programs and uncertain regulations. The big question remains: Can Pendle keep up its momentum as competition in fixed-income tokenization heats up?


What is expected in the development of PENDLE?

Pendle’s roadmap is focused on expanding its yield trading platform through three main projects:

  1. Boros Platform Launch (Q4 2025) – Introducing derivatives trading for perpetual markets.
  2. Citadels Expansion (2026) – Bringing in institutional investors and supporting blockchains beyond Ethereum.
  3. V2 Protocol Upgrades (2025) – Improving fees and governance for a better user experience.

Deep Dive

1. Boros Platform Launch (Q4 2025)

Overview:
Boros will allow users to trade one of crypto’s biggest sources of yield: perpetual funding rates. This means users can protect themselves against changing funding costs (like with protocols such as Ethena) or lock in fixed rates. The initial focus will be on Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) perpetual contracts, with plans to include traditional finance yields like LIBOR in the future.

What this means:
This is a positive development for PENDLE as it opens access to a massive $150 billion+ daily derivatives market, creating new ways to use the token. However, getting institutional investors to adopt this could be challenging.

2. Citadels Expansion (2026)

Overview:
Pendle plans to attract traditional financial institutions by:

What this means:
This expansion could diversify Pendle’s revenue and user base, which is generally positive. However, navigating different regulations and managing liquidity across multiple blockchains could be complex and risky.

3. V2 Protocol Upgrades (2025)

Overview:

What this means:
These upgrades should help grow the Pendle ecosystem by lowering barriers to adding new yield products. This could increase total value locked (TVL), but success depends on keeping the quality of listed assets high.

Conclusion

Pendle’s roadmap for 2025-2026 combines innovative DeFi features (like Boros) with efforts to reach institutional investors (through Citadels), while improving the core protocol’s economics. The success of Boros’ derivatives yield trading and Citadels’ cross-chain and traditional finance integrations will likely shape PENDLE’s next phase of growth.

The key question remains: Can Pendle’s focus on structured yield products outperform competitors in a cooling DeFi market?


What updates are there in the PENDLE code base?

Pendle’s recent software updates focus on making incentives more efficient, adjusting fees, and introducing advanced yield products designed for institutional investors.

  1. Dynamic Incentive Caps (July 31, 2025) – Rewards now adjust based on how well each liquidity pool performs, helping to optimize token emissions.
  2. Fee Structure Changes (July 31, 2025) – Swap fees are lowered, while fees on yield tokens (YT) are increased.
  3. Boros Integration Preparation (August 11, 2025) – Sets the stage for new yield derivative products.

In-Depth Look

1. Dynamic Incentive Caps (July 31, 2025)

What’s new? Pendle introduced a system where liquidity pools start with high rewards to encourage participation, but these rewards adjust weekly based on the fees the pools generate from swaps. Pools that perform well see their reward caps increase, while underperforming pools experience a gradual decrease.

Before this update, the lowest-performing 5% of pools were using about half of all token emissions, which wasn’t efficient. The new system aims to reduce waste by rewarding pools that attract real trading activity.

Why it matters: This change is positive for PENDLE holders because it encourages genuine usage instead of just speculative farming. Traders benefit from better liquidity in the pools that matter most.
(Source)

2. Fee Structure Changes (July 31, 2025)

What’s new? Swap fees have been reduced from 2% to about 1.3%, making trading cheaper. At the same time, fees on yield tokens (YT) have increased from 5% to 7%, which is still lower than competitors like Yearn, whose fees range from 10% to 50%.

The goal is to encourage more trading by lowering swap costs while increasing revenue from yield strategies through higher YT fees.

Why it matters: In the short term, this change is neutral for PENDLE, but over time it could be beneficial. Lower swap fees may attract more users, and higher YT fees could help the platform generate steady income.
(Source)

3. Boros Integration Preparation (August 11, 2025)

What’s new? Pendle updated its code to support Boros, a new platform that allows trading of Bitcoin and Ethereum perpetual funding rates using “Yield Units” (YUs).

Boros lets users hedge against variable payments by locking in fixed rates and take advantage of market volatility to earn yields. The platform saw $1.85 million in deposits within just 48 hours of launch.

Why it matters: This is a big positive for PENDLE because it expands the platform’s offerings into the $150 billion derivatives market. It also provides institutional investors with compliant tools to manage yield risk.
(Source)

Conclusion

Pendle’s updates focus on improving capital efficiency, creating sustainable incentives, and attracting institutional users. The dynamic incentive caps and fee adjustments strengthen its position in the decentralized finance (DeFi) yield space, while the Boros integration opens doors to crypto derivatives.

Will Pendle’s focus on structured products help it outperform the wider DeFi market’s ups and downs?