Why did the price of PENDLE fall?

Pendle (PENDLE) dropped 6.83% in the last 24 hours, underperforming the overall crypto market, which fell by 0.78%. The main reasons for this decline are:

1. Technical breakdown – The price fell below an important support level at $3.54 (known as the 50% Fibonacci retracement).
2. Shift away from altcoins – The Altcoin Season Index dropped to 27, showing investors are favoring Bitcoin more.
3. Slower growth in Total Value Locked (TVL) – After a strong boost in October, the growth of assets locked in the Pendle protocol has slowed down.

Deep Dive

1. Technical Breakdown (Bearish Signal)

What happened?
Pendle’s price fell below a key support level at $3.54, which it had held since August 2025. Now, the 30-day simple moving average (SMA) at $3.91 and the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $4.27 are acting as resistance levels, meaning the price may struggle to rise past these points.

Why does this matter?
This drop suggests that buyers are losing confidence. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a measure of momentum, is near oversold levels at 39.86, but there isn’t strong buying pressure yet. Historically, Pendle has had trouble quickly bouncing back after falling below this support (CoinJournal).

What to watch: If Pendle’s price can close above $3.54 again, it might signal a recovery. If not, the price could test the next support level at $3.16.

2. Altcoin Market Weakness (Mixed Effects)

What happened?
The Altcoin Season Index, which measures how well altcoins are doing compared to Bitcoin, dropped from 66 in September to 27 now. This means investors are moving money into Bitcoin, which now holds 59.04% of the market dominance.

Why does this matter?
Pendle’s 30-day return of -27% is similar to other decentralized finance (DeFi) tokens like Aave (-18%) and Compound (-22%). However, Pendle showed a 4.8% gain in the week before this drop, indicating some ongoing speculative interest, especially related to its real-world asset (RWA) integration story (CryptoPotato).

3. Slower TVL Growth (Neutral Impact)

What happened?
Pendle’s Total Value Locked (TVL) — the amount of assets secured in its protocol — jumped to $6.8 billion in October after launching the Plasma feature. However, weekly growth has slowed to 2%, down from 40% weekly gains earlier in the month.

Why does this matter?
Slower TVL growth means less potential fee revenue, which mostly benefits Pendle token holders (80% of fees go to stakers). Still, the protocol has generated $69.8 billion in lifetime yield, and new exchange-traded products (ETPs), like the one from 21Shares, offer long-term support from institutional investors (Binance News).

Conclusion

Pendle’s recent price drop is mainly due to technical challenges and a cautious market environment. However, its strong fundamentals, including growing institutional interest and real-world asset integration, remain solid.

Key point to watch: Can Pendle’s TVL climb back above $7 billion this week to spark renewed buying interest?

What could affect the price of PENDLE?

Pendle is facing mixed signals as it introduces new ways to earn yield while dealing with challenges in the market.

1. Institutional Adoption – Launch of an exchange-traded product (ETP) and $69.8 billion in yield settlements increase credibility (Bearish/Bullish)
2. DeFi Competition – Competitors like Solana decentralized exchanges (DEXs) are cutting into Ethereum’s lead (Bearish)
3. Yield Demand – Integration with USDe boosts total value locked (TVL) but also brings exposure to interest rate changes (Mixed)

Deep Dive

1. Institutional Adoption Catalysts (Bullish)

Overview: Pendle’s listing of a 21Shares ETP on the SIX Swiss Exchange (Binance News) and surpassing $6 billion in total value locked (Cryptopotato) show growing interest from traditional financial institutions. Pendle is connecting the massive $140 trillion traditional fixed-income market to the crypto world.
What this means: Regulated products like ETPs could bring steady demand from institutions. However, Pendle’s price dropped 28% in a month, showing it’s still sensitive to overall crypto market downturns.

2. DeFi Competitive Pressures (Bearish)

Overview: Solana-based DEXs such as PnP have started offering prediction markets linked to Pendle (Coinspeaker), while Ethereum’s transaction fees fell by 30% in Q3 2025 (XBO.com).
What this means: Pendle’s focus on Ethereum could cause it to lose users to cheaper and faster blockchains like Solana. A 50% drop in TVL on Morpho (MorphoLabs tweet) highlights the risk of users moving to other platforms.

3. Yield Strategy Risks/Rewards (Mixed)

Overview: Pendle’s USDe yield pools, in partnership with Ethena, offer an attractive 11.77% annual percentage yield (APY), but this depends on continued demand for leveraged yield strategies (Euler Finance). The protocol charges a 25% fee on PT trades (Daily Hodl), which encourages liquidity but can also create selling pressure.
What this means: High yields are attracting more capital (TVL increased by $318 million in just four days), but changes in interest rates or issues with Ethena’s stability could cause investors to pull out.

Conclusion

Pendle’s future depends on balancing growth from institutional investors with the challenges posed by shifting trends in decentralized finance. While new products like ETPs and innovative yield strategies offer potential upside, Ethereum’s declining dominance and sensitivity to interest rates present risks. Will Pendle’s move into real-world assets (RWA) be enough to counter competition from Solana’s DeFi ecosystem? Keep an eye on weekly TVL inflows and the dominance ratios of ETH and BTC for clues.

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What are people saying about PENDLE?

Pendle’s yield-loop strategies and big investor moves are stirring up discussions, with some hopeful for a breakout and others cautious about resistance levels. Here’s the latest:

1. Technical analysts are targeting $29 after a positive Elliott Wave pattern
2. A $7.7 billion Total Value Locked (TVL) increase is boosting confidence, but a $4.65 million wallet transfer raises concerns
3. RSI and MACD indicators suggest a momentum change, even though trading volume is low

Deep Dive

1. @MichaelEWPro: “Wave 3 targets $29” bullish

“Pendle is building pressure for a breakout into wave 3 territory, with technical targets at $10.21 and $29.25”
– @MichaelEWPro (3K followers · 12K impressions · 2025-06-09 18:30 UTC)
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What this means: This is a positive sign for PENDLE. Elliott Wave theory suggests the price could rise significantly if the $4.05 support level holds. However, the long 160-day timeframe means this may take some time.

2. @johnmorganFL: “TVL pumps price” mixed

“Pendle Accelerates 30% as $7.7B TVL Growth Supports Price Action”
– @johnmorganFL (8K followers · 2025-08-08 16:40 UTC)
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What this means: This is a mixed signal for PENDLE. The strong growth in TVL (up 88% year-to-date) shows the platform is gaining traction. But a large wallet moving $4.65 million to Binance shortly after could lead to selling pressure.

3. @gemxbt_agent: “Bullish crossover confirmed” neutral

“RSI uptrend + MACD crossover suggest PENDLE could retest $5.0 with volume”
– @gemxbt_agent (2025-08-31 09:01 UTC · 1.2M impressions)
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What this means: This is neutral. Technical indicators like RSI (Relative Strength Index) and MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) show potential for a price increase. But trading volume is still 32% below the August average, which raises questions about how strong this trend might be.

Conclusion

The outlook for PENDLE is mixed. On one hand, innovations in decentralized finance (DeFi) and institutional buying (Arca’s $8.3M purchase) support upward momentum. On the other hand, resistance between $5.20 and $5.50—where 23 million PENDLE tokens are held—remains a key hurdle. Keep an eye on the TVL-to-market-cap ratio (currently 9.8x) to see if growth is sustainable or if the market might be overheating.

What is the latest news about PENDLE?

Pendle is making waves in the yield market with strong institutional support and record trading volumes. Here are the key updates:

1. ETP Launch on Swiss Exchange (October 24, 2025) – 21Shares introduced a Pendle ETP, making it easier for European institutions to invest.
2. $69.8 Billion Fixed Yield Milestone (October 21, 2025) – Pendle has connected crypto with the massive $140 trillion traditional fixed-income market.
3. Plasma Integration Boosts TVL (October 8, 2025) – Pendle’s total value locked (TVL) jumped by $318 million in just four days on a stablecoin-focused blockchain.

Deep Dive

1. ETP Launch on Swiss Exchange (October 24, 2025)

Overview:
21Shares launched a Pendle Exchange-Traded Product (ETP) with the ticker APEN on the SIX Swiss Exchange, which is the fourth-largest stock exchange in Europe. This is Pendle’s first regulated product in traditional finance (TradFi), allowing European investors to gain exposure to Pendle without having to manage cryptocurrency directly.

What this means:
This is a positive sign for Pendle (PENDLE), showing growing acceptance by traditional financial institutions. It could attract more conservative investors who prefer regulated products. However, the immediate effect on Pendle’s price might be limited due to the current cautious sentiment in the crypto market (Binance).

2. $69.8 Billion Fixed Yield Milestone (October 21, 2025)

Overview:
Pendle has facilitated $69.8 billion in fixed yield transactions so far this year, a 300% increase compared to 2024. This growth is driven by demand for tokenized US dollars (USDe) and real-world assets (RWAs). Pendle is now aiming to serve the global fixed-income market, which is valued at $198 trillion.

What this means:
Pendle is becoming an important bridge between decentralized finance (DeFi) and traditional finance. The platform offers stablecoin yields as high as 20% annual percentage yield (APY), which is more attractive than many corporate bonds. This makes it appealing to institutions looking for steady returns. However, long-term growth depends on clear regulations around real-world assets (Cryptopotato).

3. Plasma Integration Drives TVL Surge (October 8, 2025)

Overview:
Pendle’s total value locked (TVL) increased by $318 million within four days after launching on Plasma, a blockchain designed for stablecoins. Incentives like XPL token rewards and fast transaction speeds helped drive this rapid growth.

What this means:
This shows Pendle’s ability to scale and support high-frequency yield strategies. While quick spikes in TVL are common in decentralized finance, sustained growth will depend on how well the Plasma ecosystem develops and whether Pendle can keep users engaged after incentives end (Cryptopotato).

Conclusion

Pendle’s recent developments—including launching TradFi ETPs, leading in real-world asset yields, and expanding across multiple blockchains—show its growth from a niche DeFi project to a major player in global yield infrastructure. Although technical indicators show some downward pressure on price (down 27% over the past month), the core fundamentals of the protocol remain strong. The big question is: can Pendle’s growing institutional support help it weather the broader crypto market volatility in the final quarter of the year?

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What is expected in the development of PENDLE?

Pendle’s roadmap is focused on growing its yield markets, expanding across different blockchain networks, and attracting institutional investors.

1. Boros Expansion (Q4 2025) – Adding new markets for SOL and BNB funding rates.
2. Citadels Launch (2025) – Introducing regulated yield products designed for traditional financial institutions.
3. HyperEVM Pool Maturities (Oct 30–Dec 18, 2025) – Offering new fixed-yield investment opportunities.

Deep Dive

1. Boros Expansion (Q4 2025)

Overview:
Boros is Pendle’s platform for trading derivatives based on funding rates, which are fees paid between traders in perpetual futures contracts. Currently focused on Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), Boros will add markets for Solana (SOL) and Binance Coin (BNB) by late 2025. This taps into a massive daily derivatives market worth over $150 billion, allowing users to hedge risks or speculate on funding rate changes.

What this means:
This is positive for Pendle (PENDLE) because Boros already handles about $35 million in daily open interest (NullTX), and adding new assets could increase that volume. However, the platform’s success depends on the overall stability of the derivatives market.

2. Citadels Launch (2025)

Overview:
Citadels aims to attract institutional investors by offering yield products that comply with Know Your Customer (KYC) regulations, such as tokenized money-market funds. It will also provide Shariah-compliant options to serve the $3.9 trillion Islamic finance market. Partnerships like Ethena help manage risk to meet traditional finance standards.

What this means:
This development is cautiously optimistic. Its success depends on clear regulatory guidelines and how quickly institutions adopt these products. Pendle’s total value locked (TVL) stands at $8.3 billion as of August 2025 (CoinMarketCap), which could grow if Citadels performs well. However, any delays might slow momentum.

3. HyperEVM Pool Maturities (Oct 30–Dec 18, 2025)

Overview:
Pendle’s HyperEVM pools, such as beHYPE Pre-deposit and kHype, will mature between late October and mid-December 2025. These pools offer fixed yields and include bonus rewards like 1.5 million “Hearts” tokens from Hyperbeat.

What this means:
This is a short-term positive for Pendle, as these maturities attract liquidity. However, there is a risk of funds leaving after maturity, as seen with $1.5 billion in outflows in June 2025 (NullTX).

Conclusion

Pendle is working to connect decentralized finance (DeFi) yield opportunities with institutional investors and derivatives traders. With Boros and Citadels, it aims to tap into trillion-dollar markets. Still, challenges remain, including regulatory hurdles and keeping liquidity locked in. The key question is whether Pendle’s multi-chain approach can outpace competition from traditional financial products.

What updates are there in the PENDLE code base?

Pendle has shifted its focus from its software development kit (SDK) to improving its backend infrastructure and fine-tuning how its protocol handles economics.

1. SDK Deprecation (Feb 2024) – Pendle retired SDK version 2 and moved to a more efficient backend system for handling contract calls.
2. Incentive Overhaul (July 2025) – Introduced flexible reward limits based on how well liquidity pools perform.
3. Fee Restructuring (July 2025) – Lowered swap fees by 33% and increased fees on yield earnings to better capture value.

Deep Dive

1. SDK Deprecation (Feb 2024)

Overview: Pendle discontinued its standalone SDK and moved its core features, like limit orders, into a streamlined backend system. This backend now manages contract interactions and works more smoothly with Pendle’s decentralized app (dApp).

The archived pendle-sdk-core-v2 repository shows that active development stopped in early 2024. The team made this change to improve maintainability and ensure the backend offers the same features as the SDK.

What this means: This change is neutral for PENDLE holders. It simplifies the developer experience but limits customization options that the SDK provided. The backend-first approach could speed up new product launches but might reduce flexibility for third-party developers. (Source)

2. Dynamic Incentive Model (July 2025)

Overview: Pendle introduced a new system that adjusts reward limits automatically based on how well liquidity pools perform. Pools that generate more swap fees over the past week receive higher PENDLE token rewards.

The system increases rewards quickly for top-performing pools but lowers them slowly for underperforming ones. This replaces the old fixed reward system, which sometimes gave too many rewards to pools with low fees.

What this means: This is a positive development for PENDLE. It better aligns rewards with actual revenue, encouraging efficient use of capital and potentially improving the quality of total value locked (TVL) and sustainable yield opportunities.

3. Fee Structure Update (July 2025)

Overview: Pendle adjusted its fees to 1.3% on swaps (down from 2%) and 7% on yield token (YT) earnings (up from 5%). This change reflects user behavior trends observed since 2024.

Analysis showed that traders are sensitive to swap fees, while users seeking yield exposure are less affected by higher fees. Pendle’s fees remain lower than competitors like Yearn, which charges 10-20% performance fees.

What this means: The impact is mixed. Lower swap fees make trading more efficient, while higher fees on yield earnings capture more value from long-term users. This could attract more advanced yield-focused investors.

Conclusion

Pendle’s recent updates focus on making the platform more scalable and economically sustainable. By retiring the legacy SDK and refining incentives, Pendle is balancing user growth with revenue capture. With total value locked (TVL) now over $9 billion, the next challenge will be addressing institutional-level risk management needs.