Why did the price of RAY fall?

Raydium (RAY) dropped 6.93% to $1.31 in the last 24 hours, underperforming the overall crypto market, which fell 2.99%. The main reasons include weakness in the Solana network, negative technical signals, and concerns about how Raydium is valued compared to its revenue.

1. Solana network weakness – Problems with Solana’s price affected RAY.
2. Valuation concerns – Raydium’s fully diluted valuation (FDV) of $8.8 billion is much higher than its annual fees of $79.6 million.
3. Technical breakdown – RAY’s price fell below important support levels and moving averages.

Deep Dive

1. Solana Network Weakness (Negative Impact)

Solana’s price dropped 5.66%, with warnings it could fall below $100 (Crypto.News). Since Raydium is the largest decentralized exchange (DEX) on Solana, its price is closely linked to Solana’s performance. Additionally, trading activity in meme coins, which helped drive Raydium’s volume, has decreased sharply. Solana DEX trading volumes are down 90% from their peak in January.

2. Valuation Concerns (Negative Impact)

According to Alpha Updates, Raydium’s FDV of $8.8 billion compared to $79.6 million in annual fees results in a ratio of 110 times. This is much higher than competitors like Uniswap (82x) and Jupiter (25x). This suggests investors may be valuing Raydium as a top-tier asset despite weaker financial fundamentals.

3. Technical Breakdown (Negative Impact)

Raydium’s price fell below its 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $1.79 and is trading below key moving averages: the 7-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1.46 and the 200-day SMA at $2.65. The MACD indicator shows weak momentum, with the histogram slightly positive but still below the signal line. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 35.01, indicating selling pressure but not yet oversold conditions.

Conclusion

Raydium’s recent price drop is due to a combination of challenges: the broader Solana network’s decline, concerns about Raydium’s high valuation relative to its revenue, and weakening technical indicators. Although trading volume remains active at $54.4 million over 24 hours, the low turnover ratio of 0.155 suggests the market is thin, which can increase price swings.

Key level to watch: Can Raydium hold the 78.6% Fibonacci support at $1.39? If it breaks below this, the price could retest the 2025 low of $1.23.

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What could affect the price of RAY?

Raydium (RAY) price is influenced by Solana’s network developments and competition within its ecosystem.

1. LaunchLab Adoption – Fees from token launches and buybacks may help support RAY’s minimum price.
2. Solana Network Upgrades – The Firedancer upgrade could improve decentralized exchange (DEX) performance and increase demand.
3. Stablecoin Integration – Partnership with USD1 stablecoin faces risks if adoption slows, potentially weakening RAY’s value.

Deep Dive

1. LaunchLab Growth vs. Competition (Mixed Impact)

Overview: Raydium’s LaunchLab platform generates about $900,000 daily in fees (as of August 2025) and has hosted over 35,000 token launches. However, a competitor called Pump.fun took 44% of Solana’s memecoin market in July 2025, drawing some activity away. Raydium uses a 10% fee burn and buys back RAY tokens, offering a 6% annualized yield, which helps reduce supply and supports price. But low trading volume compared to bigger platforms like Uniswap means prices can be more volatile.
What this means: LaunchLab’s strong position in launching new tokens helps keep demand for RAY steady. But if projects leave after launching (for example, if they require a high minimum balance like WAVE’s 85 SOL), fee income could drop, hurting RAY’s value.

2. Solana’s Firedancer Upgrade (Bullish Catalyst)

Overview: Solana’s upcoming Firedancer upgrade, expected in the third quarter of 2025, aims to handle up to 1 million transactions per second (TPS). This could fix network congestion issues that led to a 38% drop in Solana’s (SOL) price earlier. Raydium handled $139 billion in decentralized exchange volume over 30 days (November 2025), but network problems still limit growth.
What this means: If Firedancer improves network speed and stability, more projects may join Raydium’s liquidity pools. Solana’s total value locked (TVL) grew 25% in the second quarter of 2025, showing strong ecosystem growth. Historically, when SOL prices rise, RAY tends to follow — a 15% SOL price increase in November 2025 briefly pushed RAY up 12%.

3. Stablecoin Partnerships & Regulatory Risks (Bearish Risk)

Overview: Raydium partnered with World Liberty Financial to integrate the USD1 stablecoin in November 2025, targeting Solana’s $14 billion stablecoin market. However, 27% of the crypto market is in regions with strict regulations like the US and UK, limiting user growth.
What this means: While USD1 could add liquidity to Raydium, regulatory restrictions in major markets cap potential growth. Approval of Solana-based ETFs (like those from VanEck and 21Shares) could help, but delays might extend RAY’s recent 63% price drop over 90 days.

Conclusion

RAY’s future depends on balancing LaunchLab’s fee-driven growth with Solana’s technical upgrades and regulatory challenges. Breaking above the 200-day moving average ($2.99) might signal a recovery, but falling below the November 2025 low of $1.23 could lead to testing $0.80. Will Solana’s ETF progress overcome the regulatory hurdles facing decentralized finance?

What are people saying about RAY?

Traders of Raydium (RAY) are divided between hopes for a price breakout and concerns about a potential drop. Here’s what’s currently trending:

1. Optimism for a breakout after RAY climbed back above the $2.10 resistance level
2. A big boost in trading volume—up 660%—following Raydium’s listing on FTX Japan
3. Warnings of a possible 50% price drop down to $1.50

Deep Dive

1. @genius_sirenBSC: RAY regains $2.00, signaling bullish momentum

"RAY jumped 14.5% after the FTX Japan listing, with large investors (whales) buying up coins and reducing supply."
– @genius_sirenBSC (81.2K followers · 44.7K impressions · June 19, 2025)
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What this means: This is a positive sign for Raydium, as new exchange listings and big investor interest suggest renewed confidence. However, the price needs to stay above $2.10 to keep this momentum going.

2. @ali_charts: $3.80 resistance rejection could lead to a drop

"The recent failure to break past $3.80 might push Raydium $RAY down to $1.50!"
– @ali_charts (163K followers · 11.5K impressions · September 2, 2025)
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What this means: This is a warning sign. If Raydium can’t hold above $2.10, it could trigger a significant price correction of about 55%.

3. @ElliottForecast: Neutral outlook with potential for rally

"Currently in a Wave II correction—if buyers defend $2.05, a bullish Wave III rally could follow."
– @ElliottForecast (37K followers · 380K impressions · September 3, 2025)
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What this means: The situation is uncertain right now. If the price holds around $2.05, there’s a chance for a strong upward move toward $3.50.

Conclusion

Opinions on Raydium (RAY) are mixed. The surge in trading volume from the FTX Japan listing and upcoming protocol upgrades like Raydium X v2 are positive signs. However, technical challenges and a 63% drop over the past year keep some investors cautious. The key level to watch is $2.10—if the price stays above this, it could indicate growing demand. But if it falls below, it may confirm fears of a deeper correction.

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What is the latest news about RAY?

Raydium is navigating challenges and opportunities in the creator economy as competition heats up among decentralized exchanges (DEXs) on the Solana blockchain. Here’s the latest update:

1. YouBallin Launches YBL Token on Solana (November 13, 2025) – A new social finance platform debuts with Raydium liquidity and instant token claims.
2. Debate Over DEX Valuations (November 12, 2025) – Raydium’s $8.8 billion valuation contrasts sharply with its $79.6 million in annual fees, raising questions.
3. Technical Analysis Points to Possible Price Recovery (September 3, 2025) – Market signals suggest Raydium’s price may rebound between $1.50 and $2.10.

Deep Dive

1. YouBallin Launches YBL Token on Solana (November 13, 2025)

Overview:
YouBallin, a social finance (SocialFi) platform, launched its YBL token sale on Solana using Raydium’s decentralized exchange. The sale featured instant token claims powered by Alchemy smart contracts and dynamic pricing. The platform aims to connect creators and fans, with 38.2% of tokens available at launch and a mechanism that burns 10% of revenue to reduce supply.

What this means:
This is a positive sign for Raydium (RAY), showing continued demand for Solana-based decentralized finance (DeFi) tools, especially those combining NFTs, social features, and real-time liquidity. Higher trading volumes of YBL could increase Raydium’s fee income, although competition from other platforms like Pump.fun remains a challenge.
(Source: crypto.news)

2. Debate Over DEX Valuations (November 12, 2025)

Overview:
Data from Alpha Updates shows Raydium’s fully diluted valuation (FDV) at $8.8 billion, while its annualized fees are $79.6 million. This results in a fee-to-valuation ratio of about 110 times, much higher than Meteora’s 3.8 times ratio.

What this means:
This gap highlights strong market optimism about Raydium’s future role in Solana’s ecosystem, despite relatively low current earnings. While this may seem risky for short-term investors, it suggests that many see Raydium as a key liquidity provider for future tokenized assets, such as stocks through platforms like xStocks.
(Source: Binance News)

3. Technical Analysis Points to Possible Price Recovery (September 3, 2025)

Overview:
Technical expert @ElliottForecast used Elliott Wave theory to analyze Raydium’s price, which fell 63% over 90 days. The analysis suggests the price may stabilize around $1.50 to $1.60, with a potential rally up to $2.10 if support holds.

What this means:
From a technical standpoint, the outlook is cautiously optimistic. However, Raydium faces broader risks tied to Solana’s overall market decline (SOL down 38% since September). If Raydium’s price can rise above its 200-day moving average (around $1.90), it could signal a positive shift in investor sentiment. Failure to do so might lead to testing previous lows from 2025.
(Source: ElliottForecast)

Conclusion

Raydium is balancing innovative projects in the creator economy with the realities of its valuation as Solana’s ecosystem faces liquidity challenges. New launches like YouBallin highlight the platform’s utility, but Raydium’s recovery will likely depend on increased investment inflows, such as from Solana ETFs, and growth in DEX trading fees. Looking ahead, LayerZero’s planned cross-chain expansion in 2026 could help Raydium attract liquidity beyond Solana.

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What is expected in the development of RAY?

Raydium is moving forward with several key updates:

1. Expanding Rewards Program (2025–2026) – Encouraging traders and creators to be more active on the platform.
2. Boosting Launchpad Activity (Q4 2025) – Increasing the number of token launches using a bonding curve system.
3. Optimizing Fee Structure (Q1 2026) – Tweaking fees based on user feedback and market competition.

In-Depth Look

1. Expanding Rewards Program (2025–2026)

What’s happening: Raydium has a rewards system that gives incentives to traders and content creators to keep the platform lively. Recently, the price of RAY rose by 21% in July 2025, showing positive market response to this program.
Why it matters: More engagement means more trading and fees, which is good for RAY’s growth. But the program needs to be carefully managed to avoid flooding the market with too many tokens, which could hurt the value.

2. Boosting Launchpad Activity (Q4 2025)

What’s happening: After the success of the WAVE token launch in July 2025 (reaching 85 SOL in under 48 hours), Raydium plans to host more token launches using its bonding curve model. So far, over 35,000 tokens have been created on LaunchLab, but only about 0.62% have moved on to full trading (CoinMarketCap).
Why it matters: This could increase fees and liquidity for Raydium, but the low success rate of token launches means there’s a risk of speculation and dilution, which could affect RAY’s value.

3. Optimizing Fee Structure (Q1 2026)

What’s happening: Raydium currently charges a 1.25% fee on tokens like WAVE. They are reviewing this fee, considering user feedback and competition from platforms like Uniswap V4, which charges less than 2%.
Why it matters: Lower fees might attract more users and trading volume, which is good, but could also reduce Raydium’s revenue. Watching RAY’s turnover ratio (0.13 compared to Uniswap’s 0.41) will help understand the impact.

Conclusion

Raydium’s plan focuses on growing its user base through rewards and expanding its token launch platform. However, it faces challenges like regulatory restrictions affecting 27% of the crypto market and liquidity concerns. How well Raydium adjusts fees and benefits from Solana’s network improvements will be key to its success in the decentralized exchange (DEX) space.

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What updates are there in the RAY code base?

Raydium’s recent updates focus on improving liquidity options and providing better tools for developers.

1. CPMM & LaunchLab Program Update (August 20, 2025) – Added support for Solana’s new Token22 standard and adjusted fees for token creators.
2. V3 Beta Protocol Upgrade (July 8, 2025) – Introduced a hybrid liquidity system that combines automated market maker (AMM) pools with decentralized order books.
3. LaunchLab Launch (April 16, 2025) – Launched a no-code platform for creating memecoins with instant liquidity.

Deep Dive

1. CPMM & LaunchLab Program Update (August 20, 2025)

What happened: Raydium upgraded its Constant Product Market Maker (CPMM) to support Token22, the latest token standard on the Solana blockchain. This update also changed fee structures, allowing projects to earn between 0.05% and 0.10% of trading fees paid in SOL (Solana’s native cryptocurrency). Token22 support enables new features like transfer fees, giving token creators more flexibility.

Why it matters: This update encourages more projects to launch on Raydium by offering ongoing revenue in SOL, which could attract more users and liquidity to the platform. (Source)

2. V3 Beta Protocol Upgrade (July 8, 2025)

What happened: Raydium introduced a hybrid liquidity model that merges traditional AMM pools with OpenBook’s decentralized order book system. New smart contracts allow liquidity to be combined across different venues, and a smart order routing system helps reduce price slippage during trades. Developers can now set custom fees for liquidity pools, and existing liquidity providers benefit from compatibility with older contracts.

Why it matters: In the short term, this update is neutral for Raydium’s token (RAY) because its success depends on how widely OpenBook is adopted. However, if OpenBook gains traction, Raydium could become a key player in Solana’s decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem. (Source)

3. LaunchLab Launch (April 16, 2025)

What happened: Raydium launched LaunchLab, a platform that lets anyone create memecoins without coding. Projects that raise at least 85 SOL (about $11,150) get instant liquidity on Raydium’s AMM. Features include adjustable bonding curves, a 1% trading fee, and no costs for migrating tokens. Within hours, over 10 projects met the liquidity requirement.

Why it matters: This is positive for Raydium because it taps into demand for speculative tokens and strengthens liquidity pools. However, only a small percentage of projects successfully graduate from LaunchLab, indicating some risk for investors. (Source)

Conclusion

Raydium is focusing on improving liquidity infrastructure and token creation tools while managing the risks involved. These updates could help reverse RAY’s recent 62% drop over the past 90 days if activity in Solana’s DeFi space picks up again.