What could affect the price of RAY?
RAY’s price is caught between the rapid growth of Solana’s decentralized finance (DeFi) sector and challenges from regulatory restrictions.
- Buyback Program – A $200 million initiative has reduced monthly token supply by 9.5%, tightening availability.
- Solana ETF Buzz – Approval of Solana-based ETFs could attract big investors, boosting demand for RAY through ecosystem growth.
- Competition from DEXs – Pump.fun took 44% of Solana memecoin trading volume, putting pressure on Raydium’s fee income.
Deep Dive
1. Buyback Program & Supply Impact (Positive for RAY)
Overview:
Raydium uses 12% of its swap fees to buy back and burn RAY tokens. Since July 2025, this has removed 3.45 million tokens (worth $10.9 million) from circulation. The platform’s LaunchPad, which has hosted over 35,000 token launches, now generates more fees ($900K daily) than swaps, supporting ongoing buybacks.
What this means:
If daily fees continue growing at 60% per quarter, the reduced supply could push RAY’s price higher (Millionero). However, with a maximum supply of 555 million tokens, there’s a risk that new tokens entering the market could outpace the burn rate if user growth slows.
2. Solana ETF Developments (Mixed Effects)
Overview:
Major firms like Grayscale, VanEck, and Fidelity have applied to launch spot Solana ETFs, with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) expected to decide by October 10. Solana’s total value locked (TVL) reached $12.27 billion in September, a 57% increase from the previous quarter, with Raydium holding $2 billion of that.
What this means:
If ETFs are approved, it could increase liquidity for SOL tokens and create more demand for RAY, as it’s the leading decentralized exchange (DEX) on Solana. On the other hand, rejection might cause selloffs across the Solana ecosystem. Analysts currently estimate a 90% chance of approval (Bitget).
3. Regulatory and Competitive Challenges (Negative for RAY)
Overview:
About 27% of the crypto market is in regions where Raydium faces restrictions, including the U.S. and U.K. Meanwhile, competitor Pump.fun captured 44% of Solana memecoin trading volume in July, diverting fees away from Raydium.
What this means:
Geographic bans limit Raydium’s user growth. Additionally, the shift of meme coin trading to Pump.fun threatens Raydium’s fee revenue. Raydium’s turnover ratio (0.13) is much lower than Uniswap’s (0.41), indicating less liquidity and higher price volatility risk (CMC Community).
Conclusion
RAY’s future depends on balancing the boost from potential Solana ETF approvals against competition for trading fees and regulatory hurdles. Key factors to watch include whether Raydium’s $900K daily fee income can keep pace with Pump.fun’s growing memecoin market share, as well as the SEC’s ETF decision on October 10 and RAY’s fee trends following the Firedancer upgrade.
What are people saying about RAY?
Talk around Raydium (RAY) swings between hopes for a price jump and fears of a drop. Here’s what’s trending right now:
- Warning of a possible drop to $1.50 after failing to break $3.80
- Optimistic Elliott Wave analysis targets $6.17 if $3.50 support holds
- A huge 600% spike in trading volume fuels hopes for a $2.85 price target
- User activity has dropped sharply—active addresses down 81% since early 2024
- The $3.50 price level is a key battleground for the next move
Deep Dive
1. @ali_charts: Risk of dropping back to $1.50 after rejection at $3.80 (bearish)
“This last rejection at $3.80 could send Raydium $RAY back to $1.50!”
– @ali_charts (189K followers · 2.1M impressions · 2025-09-02 23:02 UTC)
View original post
What this means: The $3.80 level has repeatedly stopped price gains since May 2025. If Raydium can’t break through, it might trigger sell-offs pushing the price down to the $1.40–$1.50 range seen in June.
2. @ElliottForecast: Elliott Wave analysis targets $6.17 if $3.50 holds (bullish)
“Wave II correction in progress—bullish Wave III may be on deck. Price approaching key support for next cycle.”
– @ElliottForecast (47K followers · 612K impressions · 2025-09-03 03:32 UTC)
View original post
What this means: This suggests Raydium could see a strong rally if it holds support near $3.30. The analysis predicts an 87% price increase to about $6.17, based on historical price patterns.
3. CoinMarketCap Analysis: Big volume spike and strong fundamentals (bullish)
Raydium’s daily trading volume jumped 609% to $401 million on June 19, alongside a total value locked (TVL) of $1.86 billion and $655 million in annual revenue. Its revenue-to-market-cap ratio of 19.2% beats 92% of other DeFi projects.
– CoinMarketCap (Official) · 2025-06-19 09:47 UTC
View article
What this means: This points to Raydium being undervalued compared to its income, which is a positive sign. However, maintaining support around $2.10 is important for this strength to last.
4. Artemis Data: Sharp drop in users threatens growth (bearish)
Active users fell 81% from 4.4 million in December 2024 to 838,000 by June 2025. Monthly trading volume dropped 90% to $12 billion, lagging behind competitors like PancakeSwap by over six times.
– Artemis (On-chain analytics) · 2025-06-19 13:56 UTC
View report
What this means: Fewer users mean less trading activity and lower fee revenue, which funds Raydium’s token buybacks (about 12% of trading fees). This trend is a negative sign for the token’s price.
5. @mkbijaksana: $3.50 resistance level is crucial (mixed)
“RAY trying to break resistance around 3.5. If rejected, we need to wait for further price action.”
– @mkbijaksana (32K followers · 287K impressions · 2025-08-27 06:52 UTC)
View original post
What this means: This is a key level for Raydium. Breaking above $3.50 could lead to more buying momentum, but failing to do so might keep the price stuck between $2.20 and $3.80 for months.
Conclusion
The outlook for Raydium is mixed. On one hand, strong fundamentals and volume spikes suggest the token might be undervalued. On the other, declining user activity and tough resistance around $3.50–$3.80 create uncertainty. A weekly close above $3.80 would support bullish views, while rejection could bring back bearish patterns. Keep an eye on the Relative Strength Index (RSI), currently at 58, for signs of overbought conditions, and watch September’s decentralized exchange (DEX) volume trends on Raydium Analytics.
What is the latest news about RAY?
Raydium is capitalizing on Solana’s growing decentralized finance (DeFi) scene with buybacks and smart partnerships. Here’s the latest update:
- Buyback Program Creates Scarcity (September 17, 2025) – Raydium uses fees from token swaps to buy back and burn RAY tokens, reducing the total supply.
- Solana DeFi Strengthens (September 15, 2025) – Raydium’s total locked value (TVL) rose 32% in one month, boosting Solana’s chances for an ETF approval.
- Technical Analysis Highlights Potential Rebound (September 3, 2025) – Experts watch the $3.70 price level as a key point for a possible upward trend.
Deep Dive
1. Buyback Program Creates Scarcity (September 17, 2025)
What’s happening: Raydium is part of a larger trend in crypto where projects buy back their own tokens to reduce supply. Raydium uses fees collected from token swaps to continuously buy and burn RAY tokens. This process is transparent and happens directly on the blockchain. Other projects like Pump.fun and Jupiter use similar strategies, but Raydium’s buybacks are directly linked to how much trading happens on its platform.
Why it matters: This is good news for RAY holders because as more tokens are taken out of circulation, the remaining tokens could become more valuable. However, if trading slows down, the buyback program might lose momentum, which could affect the token’s price. (Millionero Magazine)
2. Solana DeFi Strengthens (September 15, 2025)
What’s happening: Raydium’s TVL — the total amount of assets locked in its platform — jumped 32% in August, reaching $1.8 billion. This growth shows that Raydium is a leading decentralized exchange (DEX) on Solana. At the same time, big investment firms like Galaxy Digital are buying SOL tokens, partly because of potential Solana ETFs. Raydium also supports tokenized stocks like Tesla and NVIDIA through its xStocks feature, connecting traditional finance with DeFi.
Why it matters: A rising TVL means more users trust Raydium’s platform, which is a positive sign. However, competition from projects like Pump.fun, which focus on meme coins, could attract some retail investors away. If Solana ETFs get approved, it could boost RAY indirectly by increasing interest in the Solana ecosystem. (Bitget Academy)
3. Technical Analysis Highlights Potential Rebound (September 3, 2025)
What’s happening: After a recent 10% price drop, traders are watching the $3.05 to $3.30 range as a support zone for RAY. Large investors (whales) seem to be buying at these lower prices. The Fear & Greed Index, which measures market sentiment, is neutral at 48. If RAY’s price breaks above $3.70, it could confirm a bullish pattern called Wave III Elliott.
Why it matters: Holding above $3.30 suggests buyers are stepping in, but if it falls below, the price could drop further to around $3.00. Other indicators like RSI and MACD show mixed signals, meaning the short-term trend is uncertain. (ElliottForecast on X)
Conclusion
Raydium is balancing a deflationary token model with the growth of Solana’s DeFi ecosystem. However, it faces risks from overall market ups and downs. The key questions are whether the buyback program can keep up if the excitement around Solana ETFs fades, and how the $3.30 support level and Solana’s TVL trends develop. Keep an eye on these factors to understand where RAY might be headed next.
What is expected in the development of RAY?
Raydium is moving forward with key updates:
- Rewards Program Expansion (Q4 2025) – Increasing incentives for traders and creators through live rewards.
- Launchpad Growth (Q4 2025) – Expanding token launches using bonding curves.
- Fee Structure Update (Q1 2026) – Adjusting fees based on market feedback.
In-Depth Look
1. Rewards Program Expansion (Q4 2025)
What’s happening: Raydium has a live rewards system that gives incentives to traders and content creators who provide liquidity or create content. Since launching in July 2025, this program helped push the price of Raydium’s token, RAY, up by 21% weekly, showing strong market interest.
Why it matters: This is positive for RAY because more active users can improve liquidity (currently with a turnover ratio of 0.08) and increase trading volume, which recently dropped by nearly 22% in the last day. However, Raydium faces competition from other platforms like Uniswap V4.
2. Launchpad Growth (Q4 2025)
What’s happening: After successful token launches like WAVE (which completed its migration on July 2, 2025, after reaching 85 SOL), Raydium plans to bring more projects onto its platform using bonding curves—a method that helps set token prices dynamically. Over 35,000 tokens have been launched through LaunchLab, and fees from these launches now exceed swap fees, reaching $900,000 per day.
Why it matters: This is good news for RAY because more launchpad activity means more fees, and 12% of those fees are used to buy back RAY tokens daily, supporting the token’s value. Still, competition from platforms like Pump.fun, which holds 44% of the Solana memecoin market, could limit growth.
3. Fee Structure Update (Q1 2026)
What’s happening: Raydium is testing a 1.25% trading fee on new tokens and may adjust this based on user feedback and what competitors charge. The goal is to find a balance between making money and keeping traders happy.
Why it matters: This is neutral for RAY because while lower fees might attract more trading volume, they could also reduce revenue per trade. Currently, Raydium’s fees are higher than Serum’s 0.8%, which could affect competitiveness.
Conclusion
Raydium’s plan focuses on rewarding users, growing its launchpad, and fine-tuning fees. Challenges include regulatory limits—27% of the crypto market cap comes from restricted regions—and competition from other decentralized exchanges. However, Solana’s expanding ecosystem, including upgrades like Firedancer, could increase RAY’s usefulness. The big question is whether LaunchLab’s daily fee growth can keep up through 2026 amid rising competition.
What updates are there in the RAY code base?
Raydium's latest updates focus on improving liquidity integration and expanding its launchpad features.
- V3 Beta Integration (July 2025) – Combined AMM liquidity with OpenBook’s order book to create deeper markets.
- LaunchLab Expansion (April 2025) – Added customizable token launches with bonding curves and automatic AMM migration.
- CPMM & Fee Update (August 2025) – Introduced Token22 support and updated fee-sharing for creators.
Deep Dive
1. V3 Beta Integration (July 2025)
Overview: Raydium’s V3 Beta merges its Automated Market Maker (AMM) liquidity pools with OpenBook’s decentralized order book. This means liquidity is shared across both platforms.
This upgrade uses hybrid liquidity routing, giving traders access to about 40% more liquidity by combining AMM and order book sources. Smart contracts were updated to allow cross-platform liquidity aggregation, which helps reduce price slippage on large trades.
What this means: This is positive for Raydium (RAY) because deeper liquidity leads to better trade execution and can attract more users. However, its success depends on how much OpenBook’s ecosystem grows.
(Source)
2. LaunchLab Expansion (April 2025)
Overview: LaunchLab now supports permissionless token launches with adjustable bonding curves. Once a token reaches 85 SOL in liquidity, it automatically migrates to Raydium’s AMM.
Token creators can set custom fee rates (default is 1.25%) and keep 0.05–0.10% of trading fees after migration. By May 2025, over 35,000 tokens launched through this system, but only 0.62% reached significant liquidity.
What this means: This update is neutral for RAY. While it encourages more token launches, the low number of tokens gaining strong liquidity shows risks of speculation, which could affect trust in the ecosystem.
(Source)
3. CPMM & Fee Update (August 2025)
Overview: Raydium updated its Constant Product Market Maker (CPMM) to support Token22 standards. This allows tokens to include transfer fees and better compliance features.
Creators now earn 0.05–0.10% of trading fees in SOL indefinitely. The fee system also supports projects using dual-token models, encouraging long-term liquidity support.
What this means: This is positive for RAY because sustainable fee models can attract serious projects. However, the added complexity might discourage smaller creators.
(Source)
Conclusion
Raydium’s recent updates strengthen its position as Solana’s main liquidity hub by integrating hybrid order books, scaling token launches, and offering better incentives for creators. While these improvements boost utility, the platform’s success will depend on balancing speculative activity with sustainable project growth. It will be interesting to see how Raydium’s total value locked (TVL) responds to these changes in Q4 2025.
Why did the price of RAY fall?
Raydium (RAY) dropped 2.73% in the last 24 hours to $3.14, underperforming the overall crypto market, which fell 0.72%. Here’s why:
- Technical Breakdown – Price fell below an important support level at $3.30
- Altcoin Profit-Taking – Investors took profits in Solana-related tokens after a big rally driven by ETF news
- Buyback Program Questions – Doubts about whether RAY’s token buybacks can sustain price support
Deep Dive
1. Technical Breakdown (Bearish Signal)
What happened: RAY’s price dropped below its 20-day simple moving average (SMA) of $3.34 and a key support level at $3.30. This triggered automated sell orders. The MACD indicator, which helps show momentum, turned negative on September 19, signaling downward pressure.
What it means: Traders who use technical analysis often see a break below strong support levels as a sign to sell or reduce holdings. The next major support level is the 200-day SMA at $2.62, about 16% lower than the current price.
2. Profit-Taking in Solana Ecosystem (Mixed Impact)
What happened: After Grayscale filed for a Solana ETF, Solana-based tokens, including RAY, rallied about 70% between June and August. Now, investors are taking profits, leading to selling pressure. RAY’s price movement remains closely linked to Solana’s (SOL) with a 30-day correlation of 0.87.
What it means: While ETFs could bring long-term benefits to Solana, traders are currently cashing out gains in ecosystem tokens like RAY. The total value locked (TVL) in Raydium’s decentralized exchange dropped 4% this week to $2 billion, even though Solana’s overall network TVL stayed steady.
3. Buyback Program Under Review (Neutral Impact)
What happened: Since July 2025, Raydium has bought back 3.45 million RAY tokens, worth about $10.8 million. However, this only offsets about 6% of the yearly new tokens entering circulation, according to Millionero Magazine.
What it means: The buybacks show the protocol is generating strong revenue (about $35.6 million in monthly fees), but traders wonder if this is enough to balance out the increase in token supply from scheduled releases.
Conclusion
RAY’s recent price drop is mainly due to technical factors and investors shifting out of Solana ecosystem tokens, not because of any specific problems with Raydium itself. The key level to watch is $3.05 — if it breaks below this, the price could fall further toward $2.80. On the upside, if RAY can climb back above its 20-day SMA at $3.34 by September 21, it could signal a reversal of the current downtrend.