Why did the price of RAY fall?

Raydium (RAY) dropped 5.18% in the last 24 hours, underperforming the overall crypto market, which fell just 0.21%. This decline is linked to weaker activity on the Solana blockchain’s decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms, technical price breakdowns, and challenges specific to this sector.

1. Increased Competition on Solana DEXs – Pump.fun leads memecoin launches, drawing trading volume away from Raydium
2. Technical Price Breakdown – RAY’s price fell below a key support level at $1.91, with indicators showing it is oversold
3. Solana Ecosystem Issues – The collapse of Solana’s M0N3Y token hurt confidence in decentralized exchanges (DEXs) on the network

Deep Dive

1. Solana DEX Competition (Negative Impact)

Overview: As of October 6, Pump.fun has taken over 75-80% of new memecoin launches on Solana, generating $13.5 million in weekly fees compared to Raydium’s $858,000 (Cointelegraph).

What this means: Memecoins account for more than 60% of trading volume on Solana’s decentralized exchanges. Raydium’s shrinking share in this high-fee area reduces its revenue, which is important because 12% of that revenue is used to buy back RAY tokens, supporting the price.

What to watch: Keep an eye on Pump.fun’s weekly market share and how much Raydium is able to buy back RAY tokens through fees.

2. Technical Breakdown (Bearish Momentum)

Overview: RAY’s price fell below the critical $1.91 support level, with these technical indicators:

• RSI7 (Relative Strength Index over 7 days) at 16.07, indicating the token is heavily oversold—the lowest since June 2025
• MACD histogram at -0.073, showing increasing downward momentum
• The next support level based on Fibonacci retracement is $1.62, about 14% below the current price of $1.89

What this means: Automated trading algorithms likely accelerated selling once the $1.91 support was broken. The 7-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2.58 now acts as a strong resistance level, making upward movement more difficult.

3. Solana Ecosystem Volatility (Mixed Effects)

Overview: On October 2, Solana’s M0N3Y token crashed 99% during a failed migration process (Cryptotimes). Additionally, the stablecoin project Aster faced accusations of fake trading volume.

What this means: These high-profile failures have made retail investors cautious about Solana-based decentralized exchanges, reducing speculative trading that usually benefits Raydium. However, Solana’s core blockchain remains strong, with $11.3 billion in total value locked (TVL) in its ecosystem.

Conclusion

Raydium’s recent price drop is due to a combination of shifting investor interest from DeFi to Bitcoin, specific problems within the Solana ecosystem, and breaking important technical support levels. While the token is currently oversold and may see some short-term relief, regaining the $1.91 price level is crucial for stability.

Key point to watch: Will Raydium’s new stablecoin pools launched with Solstice Finance (MEXC News) attract institutional investors to help offset losses from retail traders?

What could affect the price of RAY?

Raydium (RAY) is caught between the growth of Solana’s decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem and rising competition.

1. Tied to Solana’s Success – RAY’s future depends heavily on how well Solana’s platform and decentralized exchange (DEX) activity perform.
2. LaunchLab vs. Competitors – Raydium’s token launch platform faces stiff competition from Pump.fun, which holds 44% of the memecoin market on Solana.
3. Regulatory Challenges – About 27% of the crypto market is in regions where Raydium restricts access, limiting growth.

Deep Dive

1. Solana Ecosystem Dependency (Mixed Impact)

Overview: Raydium is Solana’s top decentralized exchange, handling $18.6 billion in monthly trading volume and $2.24 billion in total value locked (TVL). Solana’s DEX activity surged to $129 billion in September 2025 (Binance News). Despite this, RAY’s price dropped 35% in one week. A new upgrade called Firedancer, expected in Q3 2025, aims to increase Solana’s transaction speed, which could bring more projects to Raydium.

What this means: RAY’s price depends on Solana maintaining its DeFi growth. TVL increased 8% month-over-month to $14.2 billion, which is positive. However, RAY’s turnover ratio (how often tokens are traded) is 0.13 (CMC), much lower than competitors like Uniswap at 0.41. This lower liquidity means RAY’s price could be more volatile if Solana’s ecosystem slows down.

2. LaunchLab Adoption vs. Rivals (Bearish Pressure)

Overview: Raydium’s LaunchLab platform has supported 35,000 token launches, generating $900,000 in daily fees as of August 2025 (Community Post). However, Pump.fun has taken 44% of Solana’s memecoin trading volume by offering zero fees, drawing users away.

What this means: LaunchLab charges a 1.25% fee, which is under pressure from Pump.fun’s free minting. As a result, Raydium’s protocol revenue fell 52% in one week, weakening its ability to buy back tokens and support the price (currently offering a 6% annual yield at $1.89). To grow fees and support RAY’s price, LaunchLab needs to win back market share in a competitive space.

3. Regulatory & Liquidity Risks (Bearish Catalyst)

Overview: Raydium restricts users from the U.S., U.K., and other regions that make up 27% of the global crypto market. Its market cap is $507 million, but liquidity is thin, with a turnover ratio of 0.13 compared to the sector average of 0.29 (Global Metrics).

What this means: These regional restrictions limit user growth. Low liquidity increases the risk of price swings when large trades happen. The RAY/USDC trading pool holds $89 million in liquidity (Raydium), which is much smaller than Uniswap’s top pools that exceed $500 million. This makes RAY more vulnerable to big sell-offs.

Conclusion

RAY’s outlook depends on Solana’s ability to keep growing its DeFi ecosystem amid competition from Ethereum and ongoing regulatory challenges. LaunchLab’s fee income, which funds buybacks totaling $9.5 million monthly, provides some price support. However, regaining memecoin market share is crucial. Technical indicators show RAY is oversold (RSI at 26), but it needs to hold the $1.62 support level to avoid sharp price drops. The upcoming Firedancer upgrade could improve Solana’s transaction capacity and help boost RAY’s liquidity by the end of 2025.

What are people saying about RAY?

Social buzz around Raydium (RAY) swings between hopes for a price breakout and worries about a drop. Here’s what’s trending:

1. $3.50 resistance level – Buyers hope for a breakout, sellers warn of a price rejection
2. FTX Japan listing caused a big jump in trading volume, but momentum didn’t last
3. Upbit integration improved liquidity but didn’t keep the price up
4. Elliott Wave analysts expect a bullish turnaround if the $1.50 support holds

In-Depth Look

1. @mkbijaksana: $3.50 Breakout Zone – Critical Point mixed feelings

"RAY is trying to break through resistance around $3.50... If it fails, we’ll need to watch how the price moves next."
– @mkbijaksana (12.3K followers · 8.7K impressions · Aug 27, 2025)
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What this means: Mixed outlook – If Raydium breaks above $3.50, it could climb to $6.17 (positive). But if it gets rejected, the price might fall back to $2.80 support (negative).

2. @genius_sirenBSC: FTX Japan Listing Boosted Volume by 660% positive

"The FTX Japan listing caused trading volumes to jump over 660%... large holders are pulling out big amounts of RAY."
– @genius_sirenBSC (47.8K followers · 289K impressions · June 19, 2025)
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What this means: Positive sign – Listing on a major exchange reduced available supply, but demand needs to stay strong to recover from a 35% price drop since June.

3. @ElliottForecast: Wave III Rally Possible if $1.50 Holds optimistic

"Currently in Wave II correction—Wave III rally could be next... the $1.50 support zone is crucial."
– @ElliottForecast (9.1K followers · 5.2K impressions · Sept 3, 2025)
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What this means: Bullish outlook – Technical analysts see $1.50 as a key level for a price reversal, matching Raydium’s one-year low near $1.40 (according to CoinMarketCap).

4. @ali_charts: Rejection at $3.80 Could Lead to Drop to $1.50 warning

"The recent rejection at $3.80 might push Raydium $RAY down to $1.50!"
– @ali_charts (392K followers · 1.1M impressions · Sept 2, 2025)
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What this means: Bearish warning – If Raydium can’t break above $3.80 (its high in September 2025), it could confirm a pattern that points to a 60% price drop.

Summary

The outlook for Raydium is mixed. Some traders expect a bounce back if the price holds around $1.50, while others are concerned about weakening fundamentals—active users have dropped 81% since December 2024. Keep an eye on the $1.50 to $1.90 price range: falling below this could trigger panic selling, but staying above might spark renewed interest in DeFi projects linked to Solana’s ETF momentum. Also watch Raydium’s total value locked (TVL), currently $1.86 billion compared to a peak of $2.33 billion, for signs of increased activity.

What is the latest news about RAY?

Raydium is managing liquidity growth and memecoin ups and downs as activity on Solana’s DeFi platform slows down. Here’s the latest update:

1. Solstice Stablecoin Integration (October 1, 2025) – USX and eUSX stablecoins added to Raydium’s pools, improving liquidity.
2. VINU Memecoin Listing (October 1, 2025) – The tokenized equities project expands Raydium’s offerings with a new memecoin.
3. Market Rally Slows (October 1, 2025) – RAY token rose 8% during an altcoin rally but dropped 35% over the week.

Deep Dive

1. Solstice Stablecoin Integration (October 1, 2025)

Overview:
Raydium has added Solstice Finance’s stablecoins, USX and eUSX, to its liquidity pools. This helps reduce price slippage for large trades. USX is backed 1:1 with real-time Chainlink proof-of-reserves and holds $160 million in total value locked (TVL). eUSX offers a delta-neutral yield with a net internal rate of return (IRR) of 13.96%.

What this means:
This move strengthens Raydium’s position as a key liquidity provider on Solana, attracting institutional traders who want stable and efficient trading options. However, Raydium faces competition from dark pools like HumidiFi, which handles $8.55 billion in weekly trading volume. (MEXC)

2. VINU Memecoin Listing (October 1, 2025)

Overview:
Vita Inu (VINU), a memecoin from the BNB Chain, has launched on Raydium’s decentralized exchange (DEX) as part of its expansion on Solana. The token’s price jumped 16% over the week, driven by anticipation of a new play-to-earn game and rumors of a listing on a major exchange.

What this means:
Adding VINU broadens Raydium’s asset variety but also introduces risks due to the coin’s low daily trading volume ($416,000) and hype-driven nature. The token’s success depends heavily on the upcoming game’s popularity. (Bitrue)

3. Market Rally Slows (October 1, 2025)

Overview:
The RAY token increased by 8% during a general altcoin rally but still fell 35% over the past week. The Fear & Greed Index stands at 31 out of 100, indicating cautious market sentiment. Decentralized exchange volumes have dropped to $2.24 billion in TVL from a peak of $12 billion.

What this means:
RAY’s performance is closely tied to Solana’s overall ecosystem health. With Solana’s DeFi revenue down 90% since January, Raydium needs ongoing protocol improvements to regain momentum. (CoinDesk)

Conclusion

Raydium is balancing between offering institutional-level liquidity through Solstice stablecoins and embracing speculative assets like VINU memecoin. This reflects Solana’s challenge of growing its DeFi ecosystem while managing memecoin hype. Watch RAY’s total value locked and fee revenue trends to see if protocol upgrades can help it compete against memecoin-heavy platforms like Pump.fun.

What is expected in the development of RAY?

Raydium is making progress with these key updates:

1. Rewards Program Expansion (Q4 2025) – Giving out 50,000 $RAY tokens to active users, with another 50,000 set aside for future rewards.
2. LaunchPad Growth (Ongoing) – Speeding up new token launches using bonding curves after successes with WAVE and RUN tokens.
3. Fee Structure Testing (Q4 2025) – Trying out trade fees between 1.25% and 1.3% for new tokens.

In-Depth Look

1. Rewards Program Expansion (Q4 2025)

What’s happening: Since July 2025, Raydium has handed out 50,000 $RAY tokens to traders and creators through its rewards program, with another 50,000 $RAY reserved for future incentives (Raydium LaunchLab). This program encourages more people to use the platform, with about 30,000 daily active users currently.
Why it matters: More users usually mean more trading and liquidity, which can increase the value of $RAY. However, Raydium faces competition from platforms like Pump.fun, which controls 44% of the Solana memecoin market, potentially limiting Raydium’s growth.

2. LaunchPad Growth (Ongoing)

What’s happening: Tokens like WAVE and RUN quickly reached their funding goals (85 SOL) in less than two days, showing that Raydium’s bonding curve system works well. Over 35,000 tokens have launched through LaunchLab, generating about $900,000 in daily fees for the platform (CoinMarketCap Community).
Why it matters: While new token launches bring in fees, about 27% of the crypto market is in places where Raydium isn’t allowed to operate (like the U.S.), which limits how much it can grow.

3. Fee Structure Testing (Q4 2025)

What’s happening: Raydium is experimenting with trade fees between 1.25% (for WAVE) and 1.3% (for RUN) on new tokens. They also offer flexible pricing options with bonding curves that can be linear, exponential, or logarithmic, depending on what creators and traders prefer.
Why it matters: Better fee structures could attract more projects to Raydium, which is good for $RAY. But the platform still has lower liquidity compared to competitors like Uniswap, which could lead to more price swings.

Conclusion

Raydium is focusing on growing its LaunchLab platform by rewarding users and adjusting fees. However, challenges like regulatory restrictions and competition from other decentralized exchanges remain. The question is whether the growth of the Solana ecosystem can help $RAY recover, especially since it’s currently trading 48% below its 30-day high.

What updates are there in the RAY code base?

Raydium recently upgraded its platform to improve liquidity and make launching new tokens easier.

1. Hybrid Liquidity Integration (July 2025) – Combined automated market maker (AMM) pools with OpenBook’s order book to increase available liquidity.
2. Token22 Support (August 2025) – Added support for new token features like customizable fees and transfer charges.
3. LaunchLab Migration Tools (April 2025) – Made it simpler for projects to launch tokens by automating liquidity migration from bonding curves to AMM pools.

Deep Dive

1. Hybrid Liquidity Integration (July 2025)

Overview: Raydium’s latest version (V3 Beta) now connects its AMM pools with OpenBook’s decentralized order book. This means traders on Solana’s decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem can access about 40% more liquidity.

The upgrade changes the core smart contracts to pull liquidity from multiple sources, including Serum-v2 forks and order books. A new routing system finds the best prices to reduce slippage (the difference between expected and actual trade prices). Existing liquidity providers can continue using the platform without changes thanks to wrapper contracts.

What this means: This is good news for Raydium (RAY) holders because tighter spreads and less slippage can attract more traders, increasing swap volume and fees earned by the platform. (Source)

2. Token22 Support (August 2025)

Overview: Raydium now supports Solana’s Token22 standard, which allows token creators to set custom transfer fees and adjust pool fees between 0.05% and 0.10%.

This update also improves how fees are distributed before and after token migrations, using SOL (Solana’s native token) instead of volatile reward tokens. Projects like BonkFun are already using Token22 for launching meme coins.

What this means: This update is neutral for RAY. It makes it easier for new tokens to launch on Solana, which could increase competition and divert attention from Raydium’s own pools. (Source)

3. LaunchLab Migration Tools (April 2025)

Overview: LaunchLab introduced a bonding curve system that automatically moves liquidity to Raydium pools once a project raises 85 SOL.

Token creators earn a small percentage (0.05%–0.10%) of trading fees indefinitely, and liquidity is locked after migration to keep pools stable. Currently, over 79% of tokens sold via bonding curves use this migration system.

What this means: This is positive for RAY because encouraging token launches on Raydium helps grow total value locked (TVL) and increases fee revenue. (Source)

Conclusion

Raydium’s recent upgrades strengthen its position as a key liquidity provider on Solana by combining the flexibility of AMMs with the precision of order books. While the adoption of Token22 could spread liquidity thinner across new tokens, the hybrid liquidity model and LaunchLab’s growing use may boost network effects. The big question is whether these improvements can reverse RAY’s recent 36% drop over the past week by increasing TVL and trading activity.