What could affect the price of RAY?
The future of Raydium (RAY) depends on how well it competes with other decentralized exchanges (DEXs), the growth of the Solana network, and how disciplined it is with its token buyback program.
- LaunchLab Fee Growth – Revenue jumped 220% in Q3, but competition from Pump.fun could reduce Raydium’s market share.
- Solana Ecosystem Strength – Solana’s $425 million in monthly fees supports RAY’s role as a key DEX.
- $100M Buyback Program – Automated buybacks in 2025 lowered RAY’s supply by about 3.45 million tokens.
Deep Dive
1. LaunchLab Fee Growth vs. Competition (Mixed Outlook)
Overview:
Raydium’s LaunchLab earned $12.8 million in Q3 2025, a 220% increase from the previous quarter. Much of this came from meme tokens like LetsBonk, which made up 96% of the revenue. However, Pump.fun took 44% of Solana’s memecoin market in July 2025, drawing activity away from Raydium. Raydium’s turnover ratio (0.13) is lower than Uniswap’s (0.41), which could signal challenges in maintaining liquidity.
What this means:
This is positive if LaunchLab can expand beyond meme tokens and keep fee growth above 60% (Blockworks). It’s a concern if competitors continue to take market share, potentially pushing RAY’s price below its 200-day moving average of $2.72 (currently $1.81).
2. Solana Network Effects (Positive Impact)
Overview:
Solana processes about $425 million in fees each month, which adds up to roughly $5.1 billion annually, supported by over 1,000 developers. Raydium handles 76.5% of Solana’s tokenized asset trading volume as of Q3 2025. Solana’s fast transaction speeds and low fees (around $0.02 per transaction) are key advantages for Raydium’s DEX (NullTX).
What this means:
RAY benefits from Solana’s active developer community and growing fees but faces competition from platforms like HumidiFi and Meteora. Approval of a Solana ETF could further boost Raydium’s prospects.
3. Buyback Program Sustainability (Positive Impact)
Overview:
In 2025, Raydium spent $100.4 million buying back RAY tokens, removing about 3.45 million from circulation. This buyback program uses 12% of the protocol’s fees, leading to an estimated 6% annual reduction in token supply at current prices. The treasury grew 34% in Q3 to $239.9 million, indicating room to increase buybacks (CoinGecko).
What this means:
Ongoing buybacks could reduce supply and support the price, but RAY is still down nearly 50% from its 60-day high of $3.61. It’s important to watch how buyback activity in Q4 compares to competitors like Hyperliquid, which spent $644 million.
Conclusion
Raydium’s outlook depends on balancing Solana’s strong ecosystem growth with rising competition among DEXs and the concentration of fees. The $1.48 support level aligns with current market caution (CMC Fear & Greed Index: 32). A move above the 50-day moving average of $2.36 could signal a recovery, while falling below $1.70 might trigger further sell-offs. The key question remains: can LaunchLab’s Q4 revenue growth counteract the fragmentation in Solana’s DEX market?
What are people saying about RAY?
The Raydium (RAY) community is divided between hopes for a price breakout and concerns about a potential drop. Here’s what’s currently trending:
- Testing resistance at $3.50 – Optimists aim for $4.20, while pessimists warn of a fall to $1.50
- Buyback program boosts confidence – A $200 million buyback effort is reducing supply as total value locked (TVL) grows
- New exchange listings increase trading – The addition of a KRW trading pair on Upbit has sparked a surge in Korean trading activity
Deep Dive
1. @ali_charts: Rejection at $3.80 could lead to 60% drop
“This recent rejection at $3.80 might push Raydium $RAY down to $1.50!”
– @ali_charts (3.2M followers · 18K impressions · 2025-09-02 23:02 UTC)
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What this means: This is a bearish signal for RAY. The failed attempt to break above $3.80 suggests weakening buying pressure, with a potential drop to $1.50 representing about a 60% decrease from the current price (~$1.81).
2. @genius_sirenBSC: FTX Japan listing drives volume surge
“RAY trading volume jumped 660% after listing on FTX Japan… $120 million TVL locked in Riptide Farms”
– @genius_sirenBSC (892K followers · 4.7K impressions · 2025-06-19 13:40 UTC)
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What this means: This is a positive development fueled by increased liquidity from Japanese yen (JPY) inflows and growing use of yield farming products. Currently, Raydium’s total value locked stands at $1.86 billion (CoinMarketCap).
3. CoinMarketCap Analysis: Buybacks could push price 30% higher
“12% of fees go toward RAY buybacks… ongoing buybacks might drive price to $4.20”
– Technical analysis shows RSI at 58 (neutral) and a bullish crossover of the 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages (EMA)
What this means: The outlook is cautiously optimistic. The $3.50 level is a key resistance point—if RAY breaks above it, a 30% price increase toward $4.20 becomes more likely.
Conclusion
The outlook for Raydium (RAY) is mixed. On one hand, a strong $200 million buyback program has removed about 9.5% of the past 30 days’ trading volume from circulation, supporting price strength. On the other hand, technical resistance at $3.50 remains a hurdle. Traders should watch the $3.30–$3.50 range closely this week. A daily close above this zone could confirm bullish momentum, while failure to break through might trigger the downside risk to $1.50, as warned by @ali_charts. With the overall market sentiment measured by the Fear & Greed Index at 32 (CMC), altcoins like Raydium remain high-risk investments in a market still largely influenced by Bitcoin.
What is the latest news about RAY?
Raydium is benefiting from Solana’s growing popularity with record buybacks and strong growth, but it’s also facing increasing competition from other decentralized exchanges (DEXs). Here’s the latest update:
- Q3 Revenue Jump (October 22, 2025) – LaunchLab helped boost revenue by 69%, but 96% of that comes from a single memecoin, LetsBonk, which is risky.
- $100 Million Buyback Program (October 22, 2025) – Part of a larger $1.4 billion trend in crypto to reduce selling pressure.
- HumidiFi Becomes Top Solana DEX (October 20, 2025) – This dark pool exchange is attracting big traders away from Raydium.
In-Depth Look
1. Q3 Revenue Jump (October 22, 2025)
Summary: Raydium’s revenue for the third quarter reached $24.3 million, a 69% increase from the previous quarter. This growth was mainly driven by LaunchLab, a platform that issues new tokens, which accounted for 53% of total revenue. However, nearly all of LaunchLab’s income (96%) came from LetsBonk, a single memecoin project, which poses a risk if that token loses popularity. Revenue from token swaps also grew by 18%, reaching $10.5 million, with Raydium’s automated market maker (AMM) pools still charging a slightly higher fee of 0.25%.
What this means: This is good news for Raydium’s token (RAY) because it shows the platform is generating more fees. But it’s a warning sign that the platform depends heavily on one speculative token, which could hurt it in the long run. Raydium also bought back $14.6 million worth of its tokens this quarter (about 6% of its market value), which helps support the token price. (Blockworks)
2. $100 Million Buyback Program (October 22, 2025)
Summary: Raydium is the fourth-largest crypto project in 2025 to buy back its own tokens, spending $100 million so far this year. This buyback program uses fees collected by the platform to automatically repurchase and remove about 0.18% of the circulating RAY tokens each month.
What this means: This move helps reduce selling pressure on RAY tokens but hasn’t stopped the price from dropping 49% over the past 60 days. This strategy is similar to other established decentralized finance (DeFi) projects like GMX, which reduced its token supply by 13%, but Raydium’s buybacks are smaller compared to the leader Hyperliquid’s $645 million program. (U.Today)
3. HumidiFi Becomes Top Solana DEX (October 20, 2025)
Summary: HumidiFi, a dark pool decentralized exchange, handled $34 billion in trading volume in October 2025, compared to Raydium’s $51.9 billion. HumidiFi attracts large institutional traders by offering private order routing, which means big trades are kept confidential. Raydium’s market share dropped from 21% in Q2 to 15.9%.
What this means: This is a challenge for Raydium’s dominance in swap fees, but it’s not necessarily bad news long-term. HumidiFi focuses on large trades, while Raydium still serves retail traders and supports new token launches. However, Raydium’s turnover ratio (0.07) is much lower than Uniswap’s (0.41), indicating it still faces liquidity challenges. (Cryptotimes)
Conclusion
Raydium’s combined model of a launchpad and decentralized exchange is driving strong revenue growth. However, its heavy reliance on memecoins like LetsBonk and growing competition from dark pool exchanges like HumidiFi present risks. With Solana processing $5 billion in annual network fees (according to Grayscale), the key question is whether Raydium can diversify beyond LetsBonk and attract more institutional traders, especially after the upcoming Firedancer network upgrade.
What is expected in the development of RAY?
Raydium’s development is progressing with these key milestones:
- LaunchLab Expansion (Q4 2025) – Growing token launches and using Solana’s Firedancer upgrade to handle more transactions.
- Tokenized Equities Integration (Ongoing) – Increasing liquidity for tokenized stocks like $SPYx and $TSLAx through Raydium.
- Fee Structure Optimization (Q4 2025) – Adjusting trading fees based on user feedback to support growth and long-term sustainability.
Deep Dive
1. LaunchLab Expansion (Q4 2025)
Overview: LaunchLab, Raydium’s platform for launching new tokens, generated 60% of its Q3 2025 revenue ($12.8 million) and is set to grow. It will integrate Solana’s Firedancer upgrade (completed Q3 2025), which boosts the network’s capacity to over 1 million transactions per second (TPS), attracting more projects. Recent successes like bonk_fun ($575,000 in fees over 3 days) show its potential.
What this means: This is positive for RAY because higher fees (currently $900,000 per day) fund buybacks that reduce token supply (12% of fees go to buybacks). However, risks include relying too much on meme coin hype and competition from platforms like Pump.fun.
2. Tokenized Equities Integration (Ongoing)
Overview: Raydium is the main liquidity provider for tokenized stocks (called xStocks), such as Tesla and Nvidia, handling 95% of Solana’s tokenized stock trading volume. Partnerships with xStocks Alliance aim to increase liquidity pools, offering up to $14,000 per week in RAY rewards to liquidity providers.
What this means: This is somewhat positive as it expands Raydium’s use beyond meme coins, but success depends on how traditional finance (TradFi) adopts tokenized assets and how regulations evolve—especially since 27% of crypto’s market value is in regions with strict rules.
3. Fee Structure Optimization (Q4 2025)
Overview: Raydium is experimenting with changes to its 1.25% trading fee on new tokens like WAVE and LABUBU, based on feedback from users and project creators. The goal is to find the right balance between rewarding liquidity providers and keeping projects sustainable.
What this means: This is neutral in the short term but could encourage more users in the long run if fees are competitive with other platforms like Uniswap V4 and Serum. If not handled well, liquidity might move to competitors such as Orca.
Conclusion
Raydium’s future depends on expanding LaunchLab’s role in token launches, branching into institutional-level assets like tokenized stocks, and fine-tuning its fee system to stay competitive. With Solana’s infrastructure upgrades and RAY’s deflationary buyback program ($5.7 million spent in Q3), the platform is well-positioned to benefit from Solana’s growing DeFi ecosystem—but it faces challenges from increasing decentralized exchange competition and regulatory uncertainties.
What updates are there in the RAY code base?
Raydium has made significant improvements to its platform, focusing on better liquidity integration and updated token standards.
- CPMM & LaunchLab Update (August 20, 2025) – Added support for Token22 and simplified how fees are shared.
- V3 Beta Integration (July 8, 2025) – Combined automated market maker (AMM) liquidity with OpenBook’s order book.
- xStocks Liquidity Deployment (July 10, 2025) – Launched pools for trading tokenized stocks with special rewards.
Deep Dive
1. CPMM & LaunchLab Update (August 20, 2025)
Overview: Raydium upgraded its Constant Product Market Maker (CPMM) pools to support Token22, the newest token standard on Solana, and made fee-sharing easier for creators.
Now, projects can earn between 0.05% and 0.10% of trading fees paid in SOL (Solana’s native token) indefinitely. Liquidity providers also benefit from larger, deeper pools. Token22 support brings new features like transfer fees, giving projects more flexibility when launching tokens.
What this means: This update is positive for Raydium (RAY) because it encourages more projects to launch on the platform, increasing trading volume and fee income. The simpler fee system may also encourage liquidity providers to stay longer.
(Source)
2. V3 Beta Integration (July 8, 2025)
Overview: Raydium’s V3 Beta introduced a hybrid liquidity system that merges AMM pools with OpenBook’s order book data. This allows liquidity to be shared across different trading venues on Solana’s decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem.
Smart contracts were updated to allow access to liquidity from multiple sources, which reduces slippage (the difference between expected and actual trade prices) by about 40% for traders. Existing pools remain compatible through wrapper contracts.
What this means: This is a neutral to positive development for RAY. While liquidity depth improves, the overall benefit depends on how widely OpenBook is adopted. Traders get better prices, but node operators don’t need to upgrade immediately.
(Source)
3. xStocks Liquidity Deployment (July 10, 2025)
Overview: Raydium launched special pools for xStocks, which offers tokenized versions of traditional stocks like $SPYx and $TSLAx. Liquidity providers can earn up to $14,000 in RAY rewards weekly.
This integration involved custom fee settings (1.25% per trade) and incentives programmed on Solana to encourage liquidity.
What this means: This is a positive move for RAY because it connects Raydium to traditional finance (TradFi) demand, diversifying its revenue beyond meme coins. However, tokenized stocks come with regulatory risks that remain uncertain.
(Source)
Conclusion
Raydium’s recent updates focus on scaling liquidity, improving interoperability, and supporting real-world assets, strengthening its position as a key player in Solana’s DeFi space. While these technical improvements boost efficiency, wider adoption will depend on market interest and regulatory developments. The big question is whether growing total value locked (TVL) can help Raydium stay competitive against rivals like Pump.fun in the coming months.
Why did the price of RAY go up?
Raydium (RAY) increased by 7.30% in the last 24 hours, outperforming the overall crypto market, which rose by 2.57%. This bounce back comes after a 33% drop over the past month and is supported by several positive factors:
- Strong Q3 Financial Results – LaunchLab, Raydium’s token issuance platform, saw revenue jump 220% quarter-over-quarter, helping push total revenue to $24.3 million (Blockworks).
- Aggressive Buyback Program – Raydium spent $14.6 million on buying back RAY tokens in Q3, part of a larger $100 million+ plan through 2025 to reduce the number of tokens in circulation (U.Today).
- Solana Ecosystem Growth – Grayscale highlighted Solana’s strong network, generating $5 billion in annual fees, with Raydium playing a key role in this ecosystem (NullTX).
Deep Dive
1. Revenue Growth & Buybacks (Positive Impact)
Summary: Raydium’s revenue for Q3 reached $24.3 million, a 69% increase from the previous quarter. This growth was mainly driven by LaunchLab’s platform, which earned $12.8 million (up 220%), and swap fees totaling $10.5 million. The project also used $14.6 million to buy back RAY tokens, removing about 8 million tokens from circulation by 2025.
Why it matters: The combination of fewer tokens available (due to buybacks) and strong revenue helps support the token’s value, even as many other altcoins struggle. Currently, RAY is trading 33% below its 30-day average price of $2.36, and the buyback program helps set a price floor.
Keep an eye on: How LaunchLab diversifies its revenue in Q4, since right now, most income (96%) comes from one project called LetsBonk.
2. Solana Ecosystem Tailwinds (Mixed Impact)
Summary: Solana’s blockchain charges low fees (about $0.02 per transaction) and generates $425 million in fees monthly, which benefits Raydium’s platform. However, Raydium recently lost its spot as the largest decentralized exchange (DEX) on Solana to HumidiFi, which now handles $34 billion in monthly volume compared to Raydium’s $51.9 billion over the last quarter.
Why it matters: Raydium still controls a large share (76.5%) of tokenized assets on Solana, making it important to the network. But growing competition means it needs to keep innovating. The recent price jump likely reflects relief after a steep 49% drop in September.
3. Technical Rebound (Neutral)
Summary: RAY bounced back after hitting oversold conditions based on the RSI34 indicator (which measures momentum over 14 days) and tested a key technical level at $1.82. Trading volume increased to $33.6 million, 23% higher than the weekly average.
Why it matters: Short-term traders took advantage of the oversold signals, but other indicators like the MACD and the 30-day average price suggest there may be resistance ahead.
Conclusion
Raydium’s recent price increase is driven by a mix of token buybacks reducing supply, strong support from the Solana network, and technical factors signaling a rebound. However, maintaining this momentum will depend on how well Raydium executes its plans in Q4, especially as competition among decentralized exchanges heats up.
Key metric to watch: Raydium’s daily buyback rate, currently about $110,000 per day, which translates to an annualized yield of around 6% at current prices.